How very odd?
He's coming to London today...did anyone know that until the news on TV and radio this morning....well a few probably did but I bet not that many.
Anyone going to hear him make a speech here...nah I didn't think so.
Why would 200,000 people in germany turn up to see him ? still he better enjoy it if he wins the next time he goes back could be 200,000 people rioting because he is the President of the USA.
Was in Berlin last week, most news was then more bothered about the swearing in of troops infront of the Reichstag. On sunday I was sitting having a beer with the missus just along from the Reichstag with a huge line of police setting up a protective road block just to the side of us and suddenly a troupe of about 20 mute clown mime artists run in. Now thats newsworthy!
I know Reagan and Kennedy both made big speeches in Berlin (Ich bin ein Berliner, Mr Gorbachev tear down this wall etc...) but reading the German press there was a great deal of criticism of Obama for jumping on the bandwagon.
I just dont get it, i have the pleasure of working with at least yanks in my office they all see Obama as some kind of Messiah, like he will lead america into a new utopia. Fact is no he wont, if he does win which i doubt, he will be forced as every PM, President and leader to follow the norm. the south of amercia will not put an x by someone called Barek Obama, who is a muslim and also black. It will be rigged again like last times debacle and the crusty old McCain will win, McCains support could not have hoped for better competion it was either Barak or a woman. Altho new york and LA will vote for obama but as with all presidental elections the mid west and south are where the votes count most.
Not in the US he aint. Only in the media. On the streets its still a close run thing. Doing what he is doing at the moment in Europe is actually havng a negative affect in the US. Similar to Neil Kinocks "victory" rally.
If he starts to believe he is the next great thing as the media are telling him then he will lose. Mcain is a very very clever man. Not only that but waiting in the wings are the National Rifle Asoc , they have pledged $20 million to fight a media campagn in the states that they know will be close. They are very anti Obama.
It's another interesting take on things, but once again quite scarey.
Barek Obama is not a muslim. However about 12 percent of Americans think Obama is a Muslim.
Is it his name, his colour ... the way he walks?
If you dont have a little faith in the fact that people are open to change, and can actually see a little sign at light at the end of a dark tunnel we may as well all go and move to Scotland so we can vote SNP.
[cite]Posted By: adamtheaddick[/cite]I just dont get it, i have the pleasure of working with at least yanks in my office they all see Obama as some kind of Messiah, like he will lead america into a new utopia. Fact is no he wont, if he does win which i doubt, he will be forced as every PM, President and leader to follow the norm. the south of amercia will not put an x by someone called Barek Obama, who is a muslim and also black. It will be rigged again like last times debacle and the crusty old McCain will win, McCains support could not have hoped for better competion it was either Barak or a woman. Altho new york and LA will vote for obama but as with all presidental elections the mid west and south are where the votes count most.
He's not Islamic and I reckon his popularity is down to a lot of dislike of George Bush - i.e. he is a reaction against the neo-con failures in iraq and with the economy.
To an extent he's run a very astute campaign to date - basing acampaign on change and seeing off first Hillary Clinton while he now looks like leaving MCain floundering in his wake. But you are correct the speech was a visible way to replicate the great speeches made in Berlin by Kennedy and Reagan, but it did allow him to show himself off at his best and he is a very eloquent speaker comfortable appearing before crowds. For this tour - he also went to Israel, Iraq, Jordan before hitting Europe - he hired a 757 and filled it with journalists and TV news anchors - assuring him of great publicity if he gets things right, or a lot of very public criticism if he screws up and it's something that McCain could have done but has failed to do. All in all a very well stage-managed trip.
[cite]Posted By: Goonerhater[/cite]Not in the US he aint. Only in the media. On the streets its still a close run thing. Doing what he is doing at the moment in Europe is actually havng a negative affect in the US. Similar to Neil Kinocks "victory" rally.
If he starts to believe he is the next great thing as the media are telling him then he will lose. Mcain is a very very clever man. Not only that but waiting in the wings are the National Rifle Asoc , they have pledged $20 million to fight a media campagn in the states that they know will be close. They are very anti Obama.
Most opinion polls have Obama leading by several points, but at this stage it's meaningless, neither party have selected their nominees officially and therefore Obama and McCain can spend money as they choose without infringing campaign finance restrictions.
As for why Obama is in Europe and making this tour - he was criticised by McCain for not understanding the situation in Iraq and not possessing credibility internationally. His tour is , something he carefully planned to allay.
As I say above his response was to plan a route that allowed him to go to Israel and make the right noises about protecting Israel, plus he promised peace talks over Palestine. In Jordan they rolled out the red carpet and he got an audience with King Abdullah. In Iraq the PM al Maliki said that he preferred Obama's proposals to outline a timetable to withdraw US forces - McCain wants to stay up to 100 years if necessary, and most Americans now think involvement in Iraq is a mistake. Any candidate that promises to extricate America from there reasonably quickly is on to a winner and even both Maliki and even Bush are talking about withdrawal and timeframes.
Goading Obama into making the trip is a mistake - McCain still appears to think that Czechoslovakia still exists, was heard talking about tensions along the "Iraq-Pakistan border" and can't distinguish between Sunni and Shia muslims.
As for the NRA raising $20m, that is nothing and will mostly get spent on those who won't ever vote for Obama, and anyway Obama's campaign finances are rumoured to be around $250m.
McCain will win the south and the centre but states like New York, California as well as illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio will go to Obama, and a few other other reasonably popular States will go his way as will the popular vote, although under the electoral college system that counts for little. The key area is Florida as always and a few States in the old south that might swing either way. It's worth noting that in the Primaaries very often both Clinton and Obama polled more votes individually than than the Republican nominees did collectively.
The interesting thing will be who Obama picks as his vice-president nomination. Someone with credibility among reasonably conservative voters but not the headbanging right and he'll be home and hosed.
[cite]Posted By: adamtheaddick[/cite]McCain has stayed at home, touring the heartlands... Read into that what you will. it will be very close but my money is on McCain.
What do you make of McCain's trip last week to Columbia then? Or his recent trips to Iraq and Israel?
McCain was due to speak on an oil rig yesterday but bad weather forced a postponement, instead he washed up at Schmidt's Sausage Haus in Columbus...
It'd be interesting to hear what ChicagoAddick (yes I know he's in Bermuda now) and the others that live that way have to say.
I think Obama's run a shrewd campaign to date, but unquestionably there'll be plenty of people that won't vote for him on the grounds of his ethnicity.
[cite]Posted By: Rothko[/cite]He's not giving a speech in London, just meeting Blair, Brown and Cameron, but I expect he would have got a pretty decent crowd over here to see him.
Mmmm...not too sure he'd have got a sizeable audience were he to have made a speech here in London.
Yes I know he wasn't planning to anyway(and probably that should tell you something) and his programme was to just have private meetings with a few politicians etc.
Still find it strange though that 200,000 turn out for him in Berlin, even given the iconic Reagan/Kennedy appearances in the past.....Obama isn't in their league at present.
[cite]Posted By: BlackForestReds[/cite]It'd be interesting to hear what ChicagoAddick (yes I know he's in Bermuda now) and the others that live that way have to say.
I think Obama's run a shrewd campaign to date, but unquestionably there'll be plenty of people that won't vote for him on the grounds of his ethnicity.
Surely there are just as many American voters who will vote for him bacuase of his ethnicity?
It will, to some extent, even out. Some Americans will vote for Sen. Obama because of his race, some Americans will not vote for him because of his race (and because "he's muslim").
$20 million is nothing in this election. It is less than what Sen. Obama generally manages to obtain from on-line donations in a two to four week period. The NRA is largely useless at the moment (their most notable public advocacy over the last two years has been trying to allow guns in our universities). One of the things that may be true about this American presidential election is that whatever has happened in the past is irrelevant to what will happen come November. Sen. Obama has a fairly good chance of doing very well in the American South. In some Southern states (Virginia and North Carolina, in particular), he may win by significant margins.
Two things: Sen. Obama is more charismatic than any Democratic nominee for President since Bill Clinton and the Republican Party is deeply unpopular. On this latter point, Republicans so far this year have lost three special elections for House seats in extremely conservative districts (one in suburban Chicago, one in Louisiana, and one in Mississippi); almost every incumbent Republican Senator up for re-election this fall (Senators have six-year terms and only a portion of them are up for re-election this year) is facing a credible threat to their seat, particularly those Senators from Southern states (Mississippi and North Carolina); and the Republican Party has struggled to recruit any viable candidates to challenge Democratic incumbents in the House and Senate. Absent some significant changes between now and November (which is, of course, highly probable), this is a very bad time to be Republican.
The messianic nature of support for Sen. Obama in some quarters here is more difficult to understand. This trip overseas for the candidate will do little to temper enthusiasm. A majority of Americans are aware of the reduced stature of the country in the world's eyes and seeing 200,000 cheering Germans in Berlin is, as you all can easily imagine, one hell of a counterimage to the coverage of anti-American rallies occurring weekly in nations to our south, east, and west.
It will be an extremely interestinb election in the States this time round. Much more interesting than the foregone conclusion that our next general Election will be anyway!
I really like Obama - I'm not stupid or naive enough to think that he's any better than any other US politician, but he is extremely eloquent, handles a debate well and never sounds patronising (something Clinton did when he was running for both elections, despite being a very good orator).
Whats especially interesting about this election is obviously the fact that Obama is black, and will be the first black presidential nomination ever. McCain is a useless old fart, and Obama will ruin his **** in the debates, but two things regarding his ethnicity will count against Obama.
Firstly, never underestimate the bigotry of the redneck masses in between New York and California. Whilst Obama will rinse almost every state dry on the East and West coasts, I'd be very surprised if he took anywhere near enough 'middle-America' states to make it a comfortable victory overall.
Seconly, and perhaps more tellingly, Obama still needs to do a lot of work to convince the black vote. A lot of them see him as an 'Uncle Tom' - though admittedly, they're not likely to vote at all in the election as working-class blacks in the US traditionally have the lowest turnout of any demographic.
I hope he gets in, just because I'm looking forward to seeing someone other than a useless muppet contributing to world politics from that said of the pond again!
Surely there are just as many American voters who will vote for him bacuase of his ethnicity?
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Traditionally something around 90% of black voters vote Democrat anyway, so he won't have that much effect on the black vote. The interesting effect will be if he can persuade many of the non-voting blacks to turn out and vote for him.
The other large ethnic group that needs to be won over are the latinos, they've been growing in numbers and now represent a sizeable minority group in places like Texas which in normal circumstances would be forever closed to a Democrat, let alone a black Democrat. The Republicans tried to court this vote by being soft on immigration, before finding that their core vote on the right was alienated so they switched back to being tough on immigration.
Is this guy all smoke and mirrors ? Huge part of USA politics is glitz and bolloxx (how else would Reagan have got in ?).
If your saying Obama has $250 mil spread across 50 states Ok , my point re the NRA is they are going to put in $22 mill in key states on media adverts only. This of course dosnt include the Republican partys funds.
Obama has to get the Jewish Defence League on side (his speach re Iran being a point). They have huge funds, massive support if they go on his side he walks it if they dont ?
Mcain is no mug, as a vetran he also has a core vote that moves across party lines.
As for the "latin" vote its no way a given that they will vote for Obama.
As Leroy says its more intresting than what will eventually pan out in the UK.
The USA having a black president ? ever say never. I once said the UK would never have a woman as Prime Minister(jury out with Thatcher should have had a drugs test)
Very interesting debate and especially the comments from CollegeParkAddick. Keep 'em coming.
One the great things about the USA is that it is open and willing to change. Maybe it's having less "history" but they seem more able to move on and find solutions so maybe the race issue, which would have been insurmountable a few decades ago, will be less of a factor. It will no doubt still be a factor however.
The best comparison is perhaps Kennedy winning despite being a Catholic in 1960. This was seen as making him unelectable outside of Boston Mass. but he promoted a new fresh image of America against a tired Rep candidate (Nixon).
[cite]Posted By: Henry Irving[/cite]Very interesting debate and especially the comments from CollegeParkAddick. Keep 'em coming.
One the great things about the USA is that it is open and willing to change. Maybe it's having less "history" but they seem more able to move on and find solutions so maybe the race issue, which would have been insurmountable a few decades ago, will be less of a factor. It will no doubt still be a factor however.
The best comparison is perhaps Kennedy winning despite being a Catholic in 1960. This was seen as making him unelectable outside of Boston Mass. but he promoted a new fresh image of America against a tired Rep candidate (Nixon).
I'd love to see Obama as President for many various reasons, but i have to admit, one of the reasons is just to piss off the inbred rednecks in the midwest and southern states.
I just hope that Obama doesnt end up with the same ending as the gentleman that Henry has just compared him to.
Hillary actually won more of the black and latino vote in the primaries than Obama. There is some in built suspicion of Obama by the majority of the black vote in the southern states, and Bill Clinton was often described as the 'first black president.' Obama has to win the confidence of these voters. In the Democrats favour is that more black voters, especially young ones, were turning out to vote than ever before.
As was said above, the key battles will be the in the flyover states, traditionally conservative, proud and religious, this is where McCain will be strong, although to be fair McCain is not most staunch Republicans cup of tea.
You, me and the rest of the world cannot cease to be impressed by Obama. He is eloquent, thoughtful, charismatic and has wide appeal beyond the 50 states. It should be a shoe-in but in America a lot of voters will already be shutting their ears to what Obama has to say and will blindly vote for McCain.
Great comments above btw from BFR, Leroy and College Park. Ric's right though and people truly believe that voting for Obama will be like voting for a terrorist.
Comments
I know Reagan and Kennedy both made big speeches in Berlin (Ich bin ein Berliner, Mr Gorbachev tear down this wall etc...) but reading the German press there was a great deal of criticism of Obama for jumping on the bandwagon.
If he starts to believe he is the next great thing as the media are telling him then he will lose. Mcain is a very very clever man. Not only that but waiting in the wings are the National Rifle Asoc , they have pledged $20 million to fight a media campagn in the states that they know will be close. They are very anti Obama.
Barek Obama is not a muslim. However about 12 percent of Americans think Obama is a Muslim.
Is it his name, his colour ... the way he walks?
If you dont have a little faith in the fact that people are open to change, and can actually see a little sign at light at the end of a dark tunnel we may as well all go and move to Scotland so we can vote SNP.
He's not Islamic and I reckon his popularity is down to a lot of dislike of George Bush - i.e. he is a reaction against the neo-con failures in iraq and with the economy.
To an extent he's run a very astute campaign to date - basing acampaign on change and seeing off first Hillary Clinton while he now looks like leaving MCain floundering in his wake. But you are correct the speech was a visible way to replicate the great speeches made in Berlin by Kennedy and Reagan, but it did allow him to show himself off at his best and he is a very eloquent speaker comfortable appearing before crowds. For this tour - he also went to Israel, Iraq, Jordan before hitting Europe - he hired a 757 and filled it with journalists and TV news anchors - assuring him of great publicity if he gets things right, or a lot of very public criticism if he screws up and it's something that McCain could have done but has failed to do. All in all a very well stage-managed trip.
Most opinion polls have Obama leading by several points, but at this stage it's meaningless, neither party have selected their nominees officially and therefore Obama and McCain can spend money as they choose without infringing campaign finance restrictions.
As for why Obama is in Europe and making this tour - he was criticised by McCain for not understanding the situation in Iraq and not possessing credibility internationally. His tour is , something he carefully planned to allay.
As I say above his response was to plan a route that allowed him to go to Israel and make the right noises about protecting Israel, plus he promised peace talks over Palestine. In Jordan they rolled out the red carpet and he got an audience with King Abdullah. In Iraq the PM al Maliki said that he preferred Obama's proposals to outline a timetable to withdraw US forces - McCain wants to stay up to 100 years if necessary, and most Americans now think involvement in Iraq is a mistake. Any candidate that promises to extricate America from there reasonably quickly is on to a winner and even both Maliki and even Bush are talking about withdrawal and timeframes.
Goading Obama into making the trip is a mistake - McCain still appears to think that Czechoslovakia still exists, was heard talking about tensions along the "Iraq-Pakistan border" and can't distinguish between Sunni and Shia muslims.
As for the NRA raising $20m, that is nothing and will mostly get spent on those who won't ever vote for Obama, and anyway Obama's campaign finances are rumoured to be around $250m.
McCain will win the south and the centre but states like New York, California as well as illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio will go to Obama, and a few other other reasonably popular States will go his way as will the popular vote, although under the electoral college system that counts for little. The key area is Florida as always and a few States in the old south that might swing either way. It's worth noting that in the Primaaries very often both Clinton and Obama polled more votes individually than than the Republican nominees did collectively.
The interesting thing will be who Obama picks as his vice-president nomination. Someone with credibility among reasonably conservative voters but not the headbanging right and he'll be home and hosed.
What do you make of McCain's trip last week to Columbia then? Or his recent trips to Iraq and Israel?
McCain was due to speak on an oil rig yesterday but bad weather forced a postponement, instead he washed up at Schmidt's Sausage Haus in Columbus...
I think Obama's run a shrewd campaign to date, but unquestionably there'll be plenty of people that won't vote for him on the grounds of his ethnicity.
Mmmm...not too sure he'd have got a sizeable audience were he to have made a speech here in London.
Yes I know he wasn't planning to anyway(and probably that should tell you something) and his programme was to just have private meetings with a few politicians etc.
Still find it strange though that 200,000 turn out for him in Berlin, even given the iconic Reagan/Kennedy appearances in the past.....Obama isn't in their league at present.
Surely there are just as many American voters who will vote for him bacuase of his ethnicity?
$20 million is nothing in this election. It is less than what Sen. Obama generally manages to obtain from on-line donations in a two to four week period. The NRA is largely useless at the moment (their most notable public advocacy over the last two years has been trying to allow guns in our universities). One of the things that may be true about this American presidential election is that whatever has happened in the past is irrelevant to what will happen come November. Sen. Obama has a fairly good chance of doing very well in the American South. In some Southern states (Virginia and North Carolina, in particular), he may win by significant margins.
Two things: Sen. Obama is more charismatic than any Democratic nominee for President since Bill Clinton and the Republican Party is deeply unpopular. On this latter point, Republicans so far this year have lost three special elections for House seats in extremely conservative districts (one in suburban Chicago, one in Louisiana, and one in Mississippi); almost every incumbent Republican Senator up for re-election this fall (Senators have six-year terms and only a portion of them are up for re-election this year) is facing a credible threat to their seat, particularly those Senators from Southern states (Mississippi and North Carolina); and the Republican Party has struggled to recruit any viable candidates to challenge Democratic incumbents in the House and Senate. Absent some significant changes between now and November (which is, of course, highly probable), this is a very bad time to be Republican.
The messianic nature of support for Sen. Obama in some quarters here is more difficult to understand. This trip overseas for the candidate will do little to temper enthusiasm. A majority of Americans are aware of the reduced stature of the country in the world's eyes and seeing 200,000 cheering Germans in Berlin is, as you all can easily imagine, one hell of a counterimage to the coverage of anti-American rallies occurring weekly in nations to our south, east, and west.
I may be a political luddite but even i understand that american politics will have a big knock on effect on this side of the pond.
I really like Obama - I'm not stupid or naive enough to think that he's any better than any other US politician, but he is extremely eloquent, handles a debate well and never sounds patronising (something Clinton did when he was running for both elections, despite being a very good orator).
Whats especially interesting about this election is obviously the fact that Obama is black, and will be the first black presidential nomination ever. McCain is a useless old fart, and Obama will ruin his **** in the debates, but two things regarding his ethnicity will count against Obama.
Firstly, never underestimate the bigotry of the redneck masses in between New York and California. Whilst Obama will rinse almost every state dry on the East and West coasts, I'd be very surprised if he took anywhere near enough 'middle-America' states to make it a comfortable victory overall.
Seconly, and perhaps more tellingly, Obama still needs to do a lot of work to convince the black vote. A lot of them see him as an 'Uncle Tom' - though admittedly, they're not likely to vote at all in the election as working-class blacks in the US traditionally have the lowest turnout of any demographic.
I hope he gets in, just because I'm looking forward to seeing someone other than a useless muppet contributing to world politics from that said of the pond again!
...........................
Traditionally something around 90% of black voters vote Democrat anyway, so he won't have that much effect on the black vote. The interesting effect will be if he can persuade many of the non-voting blacks to turn out and vote for him.
The other large ethnic group that needs to be won over are the latinos, they've been growing in numbers and now represent a sizeable minority group in places like Texas which in normal circumstances would be forever closed to a Democrat, let alone a black Democrat. The Republicans tried to court this vote by being soft on immigration, before finding that their core vote on the right was alienated so they switched back to being tough on immigration.
If your saying Obama has $250 mil spread across 50 states Ok , my point re the NRA is they are going to put in $22 mill in key states on media adverts only. This of course dosnt include the Republican partys funds.
Obama has to get the Jewish Defence League on side (his speach re Iran being a point). They have huge funds, massive support if they go on his side he walks it if they dont ?
Mcain is no mug, as a vetran he also has a core vote that moves across party lines.
As for the "latin" vote its no way a given that they will vote for Obama.
As Leroy says its more intresting than what will eventually pan out in the UK.
The USA having a black president ? ever say never. I once said the UK would never have a woman as Prime Minister(jury out with Thatcher should have had a drugs test)
One the great things about the USA is that it is open and willing to change. Maybe it's having less "history" but they seem more able to move on and find solutions so maybe the race issue, which would have been insurmountable a few decades ago, will be less of a factor. It will no doubt still be a factor however.
The best comparison is perhaps Kennedy winning despite being a Catholic in 1960. This was seen as making him unelectable outside of Boston Mass. but he promoted a new fresh image of America against a tired Rep candidate (Nixon).
I'd love to see Obama as President for many various reasons, but i have to admit, one of the reasons is just to piss off the inbred rednecks in the midwest and southern states.
I just hope that Obama doesnt end up with the same ending as the gentleman that Henry has just compared him to.
As was said above, the key battles will be the in the flyover states, traditionally conservative, proud and religious, this is where McCain will be strong, although to be fair McCain is not most staunch Republicans cup of tea.
You, me and the rest of the world cannot cease to be impressed by Obama. He is eloquent, thoughtful, charismatic and has wide appeal beyond the 50 states. It should be a shoe-in but in America a lot of voters will already be shutting their ears to what Obama has to say and will blindly vote for McCain.
Great comments above btw from BFR, Leroy and College Park. Ric's right though and people truly believe that voting for Obama will be like voting for a terrorist.