When is the earliest point mathematically we'll know our league status?

RodneyCharltonTrotta

Once for you stats geniuses...obviously a lot about the current state and ownership will be contingent on knowing what division we'll kick off in next term.

Assuming we remain a going concern for the next few months and don't incur any points penalties from the impotent and unfit EFL as it stands today with remaining fixtures when is the earliest we can know what league we will be in come August?

This will change game by game dependent on league results but would be good to know given that so much beyond the football playing side appears to be contingent on this.

cabbles

Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

RodneyCharltonTrotta

cabbles said:

Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

Someone on here will take that on as a lockdown challenge you watch :-) 

Dazzler21

We're going to the wire. 

EricBanterna

Sunday morning. We beat Hull and over take them. 

Then there a massive spike in cases in the championship and its ended. 

cabbles

RodneyCharltonTrotta said:

cabbles said:

Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

Someone on here will take that on as a lockdown challenge you watch :-) 

I nominate @aliwibble

She’s not doing enough on this site for me......

peterreeves

Four wins and a draw should do it having spent three months looking at the table and fixtures! 

Callumcafc

If you want the earliest point mathematically... we'll assume Charlton win every game and the three worst teams (besides ourselves) lose every game, we could guarantee safety after 42 games (away at Brentford on July 7th).

Charlton win their next five games for 54 points, Hull lose each and every game for 41 points. Would make a 13 point gap with only 12 left to play for. Luton & Barnsley also lose all their games (unless they play Hull and win) so wouldn't affect the 13 point gap.

It'll be hard to find a permutation where we can do it after 41 games (Millwall at home, 3rd July). Even if we won all four games and Hull lost four games, we'd only be 10 ahead with 15 to play for.

ForeverAddickted

EricBanterna said:

Sunday morning. We beat Hull and over take them. 

Then there a massive spike in cases in the championship and its ended. 

Bet there will be 24-cases in SE7

killerandflash

Win the next 5 games and we'd be more or less safe. Lose the next 5 games and we'd be more or less down...

Or if we are somewhere in the middle, dunno

blackpool72

Forget all the permetations lose to Hull and we are bolloxed 

aliwibble

cabbles said:

RodneyCharltonTrotta said:

cabbles said:

Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

Someone on here will take that on as a lockdown challenge you watch :-) 

I nominate @aliwibble

She’s not doing enough on this site for me......

*Gives @cabbles a Paddington-style hard stare*
I'd have to outsource it to my sister, as she loves a good spreadsheet.

Dazzler21

Hull
Wigan
Middlesbrough 
Huddersfield 
Stoke

All within 3 points, all cannot catch Birmingham, Sheffield or Reading easily.

Boro equal us on GD

Stoke have a GD of -6 to our -10.

Below is Barnsley take on QPR, while Luton take on Preston, hard to see either getting a result.

Discounting those sides, 
We take on Hull, but a draw or loss isn't the end of the day as it's hard to see results for all of the three around us as
Wigan take on Huddersfield
Reading take on Stoke.

At least one other side will drop points and become our target.

Garrymanilow

Callumcafc said:

If you want the earliest point mathematically... we'll assume Charlton win every game and the three worst teams (besides ourselves) lose every game, we could guarantee safety after 42 games (away at Brentford on July 7th).

Charlton win their next five games for 54 points, Hull lose each and every game for 41 points. Would make a 13 point gap with only 12 left to play for. Luton & Barnsley also lose all their games (unless they play Hull and win) so wouldn't affect the 13 point gap.

It'll be hard to find a permutation where we can do it after 41 games (Millwall at home, 3rd July). Even if we won all four games and Hull lost four games, we'd only be 10 ahead with 15 to play for.

Plus, y'know, Millwall.

Oggy Red

The Hull game is pivotal, everybody can see that.
Bows will want the 3 points, so I'm hoping he'll set up for the win.

We can only play 1 game at a time. That can be the only focus.


Teams in the bottom half still have to play each other - they can't both win, plenty of dropped points there. And surprises, no doubt.

We've a 9-match mini-season. We need points - but only 1 more than the club that finishes 22nd.


There may also be a club that unexpectedly freefalls, that can't get started as they don't think they're in danger and the players think they're already on holiday.

And the EFL might finally get their act together with Sheff W/Derby/Brum but don't bet on it.

But unless we straightaway string 4 wins in a row (thanks, Millwall ), then it's impossible to predict the earliest mathematical safety date.

BR7_addick

5 wins from 9 and you’d have 54 points, that will definitely see us safe, not mathematically but highly probable.  I’d even say 4 wins a draw would do it.

PopIcon

I have a horrible feeling we will end up bottom of the table.

robroy

Five wins from nine? I just can’t see it 

Oggy Red

BR7_addick said:

5 wins from 9 and you’d have 54 points, that will definitely see us safe, not mathematically but highly probable.  I’d even say 4 wins a draw would do it.

3 wins and 3 draws could possibly be enough.

Other teams will drop points, some still have to play each other, so how many points needed for safety much depends on the form of others.

But most of all, we have to help ourselves ..... if we can begin by stringing some decent results together - and not lose to other relegation rivals, then that will build team confidence.

It's in our own hands.

EveshamAddick

We need to do what we did back in August.

blackpool72

EveshamAddick said:

We need to do what we did back in August.

What .
Play Gallagher  Taylor  Leko. 

Lewis Coaches

Dazzler21 said:

Hull
Wigan
Middlesbrough 
Huddersfield 
Stoke

All within 3 points, all cannot catch Birmingham, Sheffield or Reading easily.

Boro equal us on GD

Stoke have a GD of -6 to our -10.

Below is Barnsley take on QPR, while Luton take on Preston, hard to see either getting a result.

Discounting those sides, 
We take on Hull, but a draw or loss isn't the end of the day as it's hard to see results for all of the three around us as
Wigan take on Huddersfield
Reading take on Stoke.

At least one other side will drop points and become our target.

some good games coming up

20 june Huddersfield v Wigan and Hull v Charlton
27 june Stoke v Middlesbrough
30 june Wigan v Stoke
  2 july  Hull v Middlesbrough
  4 july Stoke v Barnsley
  7 july Luton v Barnsley
11 july Barnsley v Wigan and Huddersfield v Luton
14 july Wigan v Hull 
18 july Charlton v Wigan and Hull v Luton

Anything could happen of course but the games between the bottom eight will tell the outcome of the season.

Oggy Red

Interesting that 5 of Wigan's remaining 9 games are against teams fighting against relegation.
They also play promotion/play off hopefuls Blackburn, Brentford - plus Fulham their final game.

Hull play 4 of those struggling. 
Stoke 3.
Luton 3.

A lot of points to be dropped here.