We are only 3 points off the drop zone after tonight's results!

nth london addick said:

Well I had us finishing 12th with 61s on that and hudds blackburn and bristle city going down with huds going down on 51 points

I think it's fair to say those that think we are seriously fooked are expecting teams like hudds and Bristol city Blackburn to all go on huge runs its a lot to ask but who knows

We ain't safe yet and won't be for a couple of weeks but we will beat Leeds boro away and Bristol city draw with Barnsley draw with wolves lose to Brighton and lose to Cardiff

Crystal balls now, NLA !

Big crystal ones fanny in need of a polish every so often

I am hoping it's raining say so a wet fanny can polish them balls 8)

PragueAddick said:

SELR_addicks said:

Crucial time for us really. Another bad run right now and we're down.

What do you mean by "another bad run"? Basically we lose at home and win away. We haven't really had a bad "run". And I don't see any reason why one should start (although i don't expect anything from tonight, I'm afraid).

If you want a team who is on a bad run I give you Blackburn Rovers. Ever since they sacked Kean while in 3rd place having previously been top. That club is in free fall and nobody there has the slightest idea what to do about it.

Well if we mimic end of January - beginning of March (4 points from 7 games), we'd be a lot of trouble.

We'll be alright, but it ain't gonna be comfortable.

The table below isn't based on the BBC predictor but on form. Of course the trouble with form is that we don't know whether it's going to continue or not. I've created the table by taking the (for us) pessimistic view that all teams perform to either their current form level (last 6 matches) or their average level over the season - which ever is the better for them. Of course it can't work out like this in reality because if some do well, others will of course do worse. But it should give us a reasonable benchmark to aim for.

Based on this we'll need 56 or more to be pretty certain of survival. Given that our current form and our seasonal form are so similar we're likely to get 59, unless we suddenly get worse. By my reckonings Blackburn, Sheffield and Bristol are going down.

Norfolk_Addick said:

Valiantphil said:

After watching the 2-2 draw at Peterborough, i said we were in a relegation battle and some on here thought I was mad.

I doubt they were qualified to think such things.

Smiling emoticon.

My pleasure ;-)

Cheers Stig (again) lol

What is interesting is that it looks like a low points total for 6th - 70 (undertsandable if you look how teams take points off each other). One less than 70 and we could be in if we win our last 5. Only joking, I know it won't happen lol. Wouldn't be surprised if Palarse fall out of the play offs altogether though. They seem to be imploding.

I do agree - 70 is the record lowest so far, but the points have been well spread this season. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 69 points this year, but we won't win 5 on the trot so it doesn't really matter.

Callumcafc said:

Play-offs would be an amazing adventure, we could go into it with nothing to lose.

Except the semi-final?

;o)

Just done that BBC predictor, I have us finishing 9th on 64 pts. Probably a bit optimistic but I can't see how we won't survive comfortably from here. It'll be a tight relegation battle if I'm right though - I have 7 teams on 55 points, six of them surviving on. I have Boro finishing 21st - they have a tough run in, we're the only team they face who don't really have much to play for.

I think that using the points obtained by each team in the last ten games as the basis for predicting how many points will be obtained in the remaining games is useful for predicting how many points will be needed to stay up (but not for predicting how many points each team will get). I did this after our match against Huddersfield on 9 March and it predicted 53; after Bolton (30 March) it predicted 55; and after Leeds, still 55.

This is similar in approach to Stig's, which predicts 56 or 57 will be needed.

In fact, we were in the drop zone for just 3 days after that Boro game.
And the only time we've been in that position all season.