Three out of four now
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According to Sportsclubstats our relegation chances just went up by 7% and Doncaster / Birmingham only have a slim chance of being sucked in. I too like that site and Fink Tank also gives its prediction on the season finish.Callumcafc said:Birmingham to win (or at the very least, a draw) midweek please. We just need three teams worse than us (not five or six) and the less points that Yeovil, Barnsley and Millwall get from now until the end of the season, the better.
Going by sportsclubstats data (I enjoy that site a little bit too much), as of today we have a 35.2% chance of being relegated. A Millwall win on Tuesday adds an extra 3% to our relegation chances. A draw at the Den would take 1% off our relegation chances while a win for Birmingham would take 2% from our chance of relegation.
(Yeovil winning at Leicester would add 7% to our chance of relegation. A draw at the King Power would add 1% to our relegation chances while a home win would result in a 1.5% swing in our favour.)
It is 100% in our own hands to do two things:
Get some home wins in April
Get Solly back OR sign a loan player on the right.
Basically if we draw or lose at home vs Yeovil and Barnsley we deserve to go down so what do we have to do to convert these into wins... before people moan about lack of chances, we have been creating 10-15 chances in many of the games in February/March so time to convert those - Obika, Sordell and Jackson look the most likely to do that...
We have brought in Adarevic, Poyet, Reza and Obika since Duchatelet took over but it is certainly not clear that this is enough and it is annoying to say the least, that the £1M generated from the cup run (now confirmed by the club) has not been used to strengthen our chances... Imagine if Wilson went out injured as well on the right!
I'm not saying we will do it but I am saying we have a 66% chance of getting away with it. A couple of 1-0 wins here and there and we will be in a better place.
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Tuesday at the Toolbox could bring Brum very much into it.
The best result for us very much depends on how we get on at the City Ground . If we won at Forest then a Spanner victory would be the best result for us as suddenly it very much becomes 2 from 5. If we draw then a point each would be welcome to maintain the status quo. I only want a Birmingham win if we lose. This keep us above Millwall.
In terms of Yeovil I think people are forgetting that they have thrown away so many leads this season . Even in the last week they have thrown away 2 winning positions and only come away with draws. Compare this to our late winner against Bournemouth which has ensured we stayed a point above them.1 -
95th minute vs Bournemouth and QPR says we can score!BigRedEvil said:All our home games are winnable except we can't score.
By the time we play Bolton Blackburn and Watford they'll have nothing to play for so hopefully that might help us
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Can anyone honestly see us winning 5 games in the remaining games?BigRedEvil said:5 more wins will be enough
I am truly doubtful I'm afraid...
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I think we've actually created less chances since Riga has been in charge. Certainly feels like it. No urgency or drive to catch teams on the counter and put them on thr back foot. No overlaps. Our build up is far too slow.1
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I agree we lack pace sometimes but that is the price of retaining possession via Poyet finding the 20 yard balls and not Morrison / Devite playing 60 yard hoofs.
I recall we had 10 or 12 chances against Huddersfield, Millwall and Bournmouth... So all down to finishing... Oh dear!0 -
I personally think 3 wins and 3 draws will do it. With the bottom 4 being so shite this year, I reckon the team who finishes 4th from bottom will stay up with a record low points level.charliewright1 said:
Can anyone honestly see us winning 5 games in the remaining games?BigRedEvil said:5 more wins will be enough
I am truly doubtful I'm afraid...0 -
Richard J said:
Tuesday at the Toolbox could bring Brum very much into it.
The best result for us very much depends on how we get on at the City Ground . If we won at Forest then a Spanner victory would be the best result for us as suddenly it very much becomes 2 from 5. If we draw then a point each would be welcome to maintain the status quo. I only want a Birmingham win if we lose. This keep us above Millwall.
If we win at Forest then surely the best result for us is a Birmingham win. Our aim is to keep 3 teams below us, not worry about dragging other teams into it. A win for us and a Milwall defeat and they'll be as good as down.4 -
Should add, that 35.2% chance takes into account the 7.9% increase following our defeat yesterday afternoon. Before the weekend our chances were at 27.3%. :-)seriously_red said:
According to Sportsclubstats our relegation chances just went up by 7% and Doncaster / Birmingham only have a slim chance of being sucked in.Callumcafc said:Birmingham to win (or at the very least, a draw) midweek please. We just need three teams worse than us (not five or six) and the less points that Yeovil, Barnsley and Millwall get from now until the end of the season, the better.
Going by sportsclubstats data (I enjoy that site a little bit too much), as of today we have a 35.2% chance of being relegated. A Millwall win on Tuesday adds an extra 3% to our relegation chances. A draw at the Den would take 1% off our relegation chances while a win for Birmingham would take 2% from our chance of relegation.
(Yeovil winning at Leicester would add 7% to our chance of relegation. A draw at the King Power would add 1% to our relegation chances while a home win would result in a 1.5% swing in our favour.)
Still maintain that a Millwall win against Birmingham would be the worst result for us, whatever we do against Forest.0 -
I'm worried about Yeovil as well, but I still think the odds are that they will go down with Barnsley & Millwall, provided we beat them at home of course.0
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Spongefoot will save us...............0
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Not sure why I think we'll win this many but here's how I see it finishing up...
March Fixture
Nottm Forest V Charlton Draw
Derby V Charlton Lose
April Fixture
Leeds V Charlton Lose
Charlton V Reading Win
Charlton V Yeovil Win
Brighton V Charlton Lose
Charlton V Barnsley Win
Charlton V Bolton Lose
Sheff Wed V Charlton Win
Charlton V Blackburn Draw
Charlton V Watford Win
May Fixture
Blackpool V Charlton Draw
Relegated on 50 points, I think
Us, Millwall and Barnsley Going down.1 -
No way will we be relegated on 50 points.0
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I don't think anyone is going down with 50 points this season...Fink Tank predicts us on 47 and third bottom on 42... Let's see how that moves after this week's games.0
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What were teams relegated on last season????0
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Haha probably true. In all seriousness, unless one of Yeovil, Millwall or Barnsley goes on a run of promotion winning form from now until the end of the season, 45 points should be enough.LargeAddick said:0 -
Peterborough 54CrayAddick said:What were teams relegated on last season????
Wolves 51
Bristol City 41
But last season was a freak, only 68 points needed for play offs... this season it'll be more like 75-80.0 -
We like to create records... I don't think we'll get 50 points, that's just how it came out when I thought to myself... what can reasonably be expected... We will in my opinion get more like 42 points for the entire season as we need a goalscorer to win those other games.Callumcafc said:No way will we be relegated on 50 points.
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p.s don't be so confident...
Relegated teams (from Championship to League One)
POINTS FOR RELEGATION
Season
2004–05
Gillingham (50), Nottingham Forest (44), Rotherham United (29)
2005–06
Crewe Alexandra (42), Millwall (40), Brighton & Hove Albion (38)
2006–07
Southend United (42), Luton Town (40), Leeds United (36)
2007–08
Leicester City (52), Scunthorpe United (46), Colchester United (38)
2008–09
Norwich City (46), Southampton (45), Charlton Athletic (39)
2009–10
Sheffield Wednesday (47), Plymouth Argyle (41), Peterborough United (34)
2010–11
Preston North End (42), Scunthorpe United (42), Sheffield United (42)
2011–12
Portsmouth (40), Coventry City (40), Doncaster Rovers (36)
2012–13
Peterborough United (54), Wolverhampton Wanderers (51), Bristol City (41)
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Interesting.Callumcafc said:
Peterborough 54CrayAddick said:What were teams relegated on last season????
Wolves 51
Bristol City 41
But last season was a freak, only 68 points needed for play offs... this season it'll be more like 75-80.
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For us to be relegated with 50 points would mean Millwall or Yeovil winning 6 of their last 9 games. Highly unlikely.1
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I just can't see Millwall, Yeovil or Barnsley averaging over two points per game for the rest of the season but football is a funny game.0
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Why we love football?
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Had a look at the fixtures Barnsley have to play the most of the top half of the table in their remaining games. Can't see them getting enough points.0
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I think it'll be a record points low this season.0
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Us Barnsley and Millwall to go down.0
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Nobody has mentioned Leeds yet. ;-)1
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I'd be delighted if we got 50 points, no way we would be relegated if we do.0
