The Takeover Thread - Duchatelet Finally Sells (Jan 2020)

Uboat said:

NapaAddick said:

charltonnick said:

NappaAddick I would be very interested to read how you think CAFC could have a value of £75-80M. Sorry but I think you are deluded

Well, it is, without question, worth at least 57M, since that is the debt as it currently stands.

Can't believe I'm getting involved, but why is something worth the value of its debt?

It is.

In Roland’s world anyway.....

blackpool72 said:

NapaAddick said:

charltonnick said:

NappaAddick I would be very interested to read how you think CAFC could have a value of £75-80M. Sorry but I think you are deluded

Well, it is, without question, worth at least 57M, since that is the debt as it currently stands. So we have a difference of opinion only for the remaining 13M. The lowest offer anyone in the press has reported for RD's purchase is 14M. The highest is 20M. I contend he won't sell at a loss. And that someone will assume all the debt and pay at least the £14M he paid.

I need to add that enterprise value (equity plus debt) and intrinsic value (actual worth) are very different things.

That being said, I think I can make a fairly strong case for even paying full boat for the club.

My house is worth about 475k.

If I decide to sell I will contact you and sell it for about 3 million.

I take it smoke detectors have been fitted and are all in good working order

NapaAddick said:

blackpool72 said:

NapaAddick said:

charltonnick said:

NappaAddick I would be very interested to read how you think CAFC could have a value of £75-80M. Sorry but I think you are deluded

Well, it is, without question, worth at least 57M, since that is the debt as it currently stands. So we have a difference of opinion only for the remaining 13M. The lowest offer anyone in the press has reported for RD's purchase is 14M. The highest is 20M. I contend he won't sell at a loss. And that someone will assume all the debt and pay at least the £14M he paid.

I need to add that enterprise value (equity plus debt) and intrinsic value (actual worth) are very different things.

That being said, I think I can make a fairly strong case for even paying full boat for the club.

My house is worth about 475k.

If I decide to sell I will contact you and sell it for about 3 million.

Do you owe 3 mil on your 475k house?

If he did, no-one would buy it, as it's worth 475k.

Uboat said:

NapaAddick said:

blackpool72 said:

NapaAddick said:

charltonnick said:

NappaAddick I would be very interested to read how you think CAFC could have a value of £75-80M. Sorry but I think you are deluded

Well, it is, without question, worth at least 57M, since that is the debt as it currently stands. So we have a difference of opinion only for the remaining 13M. The lowest offer anyone in the press has reported for RD's purchase is 14M. The highest is 20M. I contend he won't sell at a loss. And that someone will assume all the debt and pay at least the £14M he paid.

I need to add that enterprise value (equity plus debt) and intrinsic value (actual worth) are very different things.

That being said, I think I can make a fairly strong case for even paying full boat for the club.

My house is worth about 475k.

If I decide to sell I will contact you and sell it for about 3 million.

Do you owe 3 mil on your 475k house?

If he did, no-one would buy it, as it's worth 475k.

Based on.... comparable homes I assume?

NapaAddick said:

Uboat said:

NapaAddick said:

blackpool72 said:

NapaAddick said:

charltonnick said:

NappaAddick I would be very interested to read how you think CAFC could have a value of £75-80M. Sorry but I think you are deluded

Well, it is, without question, worth at least 57M, since that is the debt as it currently stands. So we have a difference of opinion only for the remaining 13M. The lowest offer anyone in the press has reported for RD's purchase is 14M. The highest is 20M. I contend he won't sell at a loss. And that someone will assume all the debt and pay at least the £14M he paid.

I need to add that enterprise value (equity plus debt) and intrinsic value (actual worth) are very different things.

That being said, I think I can make a fairly strong case for even paying full boat for the club.

My house is worth about 475k.

If I decide to sell I will contact you and sell it for about 3 million.

Do you owe 3 mil on your 475k house?

If he did, no-one would buy it, as it's worth 475k.

Based on.... comparable homes I assume?

Yes.

A house is not a business. A club, for better or worse, is a business with ongoing costs and turnover. No good business sells at or below accounting value. Comparing an ongoing business to a house is not a good choice. There are many things to consider when buying or selling a business. Profit and loss, revenues, land values, etc. Also, estimated future revenues and profits are more important than any current numbers are. Most successful investors buy based upon a discounted estimate of future value, not based on what it is worth, now. Most likely, a smart investor would calculate the value of CAFC in the PL, subtract the likely costs to get us there, which have plenty of data on with Palace, Bournemouth, Swansea, Leicester, etc, and the compare that to what mid-table clubs in the PL sell for. When one does that, you see that paying £70-80M is not that bad a deal, especially since the debt can just be serviced and not paid back all at once. It's not a great deal, but it is not a bad one, given the potential upside.

NapaAddick said:

A house is not a business. A club, for better or worse, is a business with ongoing costs and turnover. No good business sells at or below accounting value. Comparing an ongoing business to a house is not a good choice. There are many things to consider when buying or selling a business. Profit and loss, revenues, land values, etc. Also, estimated future revenues and profits are more important than any current numbers are. Most successful investors buy based upon a discounted estimate of future value, not based on what it is worth, now. Most likely, a smart investor would calculate the value of CAFC in the PL, subtract the likely costs to get us there, which have plenty of data on with Palace, Bournemouth, Swansea, Leicester, etc, and the compare that to what mid-table clubs in the PL sell for. When one does that, you see that paying £70-80M is not that bad a deal. It's not a great one, but it is not a bad one.

That's fine, but it assumes that you will get promoted. There is absolutely no guarantee of that, which is surely factored in.

Oggy Red said:

Jimmy Seed .... we need some more poetry. NOW!

Planning to clear the loft in a week or so. Will dig out a couple. They're very good, of course. As you'd expect from a 17 year old Hatfield & The North fan in 1974 boarding school.

Any lols will be hunted down....

Anybody buying Charlton will almost certainly lose loads of money.
Unless we get to the Premier League.
But to get there would be very expensive.

So we're looking for someone incredibly wealthy who is prepared to take a big risk, with only an outside chance of a return on the investment.

Oh god.

Weegie Addick said:

What scarf is he wearing? Looks like a football one and red and white but not Charlton.

What picture are you talking to yourself about then @Weegie Addick ?

Weegie Addick said:

RedChaser said:

Weegie Addick said:

What scarf is he wearing? Looks like a football one and red and white but not Charlton.

What picture are you talking to yourself about the @Weegie Addick ?

The one on the website about Roland's lifetime achievement award if you click on the link to the original story in Dutch. I do wonder if they are slightly taking the pee though I am no expert on Belgian humour. I doubt RD himself would have selected such a photo with a football scarf round his neck.

Definitely the Standard Liege Crest in the background and highly likely that club's scarf. I wouldn't read too much into the 'Belgium humour' angle more likely lazy journalism on behalf of the author / editor that they have used the first library picture they came across.

This is getting far too complicated, can't we stick to buying cars from my joint savings account with my wife, doing them up and selling them on at a profit

Who’s next on the thread to make themselves look stark raving mad