Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.

When is the earliest point mathematically we'll know our league status?

RodneyCharltonTrotta
RodneyCharltonTrotta Posts: 14,840
in General Charlton
Once for you stats geniuses...obviously a lot about the current state and ownership will be contingent on knowing what division we'll kick off in next term.

Assuming we remain a going concern for the next few months and don't incur any points penalties from the impotent and unfit EFL as it stands today with remaining fixtures when is the earliest we can know what league we will be in come August?

This will change game by game dependent on league results but would be good to know given that so much beyond the football playing side appears to be contingent on this.

Comments

  • cabbles
    cabbles Posts: 15,288
    Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

    there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 
  • RodneyCharltonTrotta
    RodneyCharltonTrotta Posts: 14,840
    cabbles said:
    Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

    there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

    Someone on here will take that on as a lockdown challenge you watch :-) 
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,491
    We're going to the wire. 
  • EricBanterna
    EricBanterna Posts: 1,740
    Sunday morning. We beat Hull and over take them. 

    Then there a massive spike in cases in the championship and its ended. 
  • cabbles
    cabbles Posts: 15,288
    RodneyCharltonTrotta said:
    cabbles said:
    Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

    there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

    Someone on here will take that on as a lockdown challenge you watch :-) 
    I nominate @aliwibble

    She’s not doing enough on this site for me......
  • peterreeves
    peterreeves Posts: 1,074
    Four wins and a draw should do it having spent three months looking at the table and fixtures! 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 64,101
    edited June 2020
    If you want the earliest point mathematically... we'll assume Charlton win every game and the three worst teams (besides ourselves) lose every game, we could guarantee safety after 42 games (away at Brentford on July 7th).

    Charlton win their next five games for 54 points, Hull lose each and every game for 41 points. Would make a 13 point gap with only 12 left to play for. Luton & Barnsley also lose all their games (unless they play Hull and win) so wouldn't affect the 13 point gap.

    It'll be hard to find a permutation where we can do it after 41 games (Millwall at home, 3rd July). Even if we won all four games and Hull lost four games, we'd only be 10 ahead with 15 to play for.
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 95,485
    EricBanterna said:
    Sunday morning. We beat Hull and over take them. 

    Then there a massive spike in cases in the championship and its ended. 
    Bet there will be 24-cases in SE7
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 70,218
    Win the next 5 games and we'd be more or less safe. Lose the next 5 games and we'd be more or less down...

    Or if we are somewhere in the middle, dunno
  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 23,802
    Forget all the permetations lose to Hull and we are bolloxed 

  • Sponsored links:



  • aliwibble
    aliwibble Posts: 26,951
    edited June 2020
    cabbles said:
    RodneyCharltonTrotta said:
    cabbles said:
    Bloody hell Rodders.  You’ll need a nifty piece of tech to run all the permutations.

    there’s a total of 86 games left to go I think, and the league table is tight points wise, so I think the only think that will let you know earlier is if we go on a run of games getting beat 

    Someone on here will take that on as a lockdown challenge you watch :-) 
    I nominate @aliwibble

    She’s not doing enough on this site for me......
    *Gives @cabbles a Paddington-style hard stare*
    I'd have to outsource it to my sister, as she loves a good spreadsheet.
  • Dazzler21
    Dazzler21 Posts: 51,491
    Hull
    Wigan
    Middlesbrough 
    Huddersfield 
    Stoke

    All within 3 points, all cannot catch Birmingham, Sheffield or Reading easily.

    Boro equal us on GD
    Stoke have a GD of -6 to our -10.

    Below is Barnsley take on QPR, while Luton take on Preston, hard to see either getting a result.

    Discounting those sides, 
    We take on Hull, but a draw or loss isn't the end of the day as it's hard to see results for all of the three around us as
    Wigan take on Huddersfield
    Reading take on Stoke.

    At least one other side will drop points and become our target.
  • Garrymanilow
    Garrymanilow Posts: 13,343
    Callumcafc said:
    If you want the earliest point mathematically... we'll assume Charlton win every game and the three worst teams (besides ourselves) lose every game, we could guarantee safety after 42 games (away at Brentford on July 7th).

    Charlton win their next five games for 54 points, Hull lose each and every game for 41 points. Would make a 13 point gap with only 12 left to play for. Luton & Barnsley also lose all their games (unless they play Hull and win) so wouldn't affect the 13 point gap.

    It'll be hard to find a permutation where we can do it after 41 games (Millwall at home, 3rd July). Even if we won all four games and Hull lost four games, we'd only be 10 ahead with 15 to play for.
    Plus, y'know, Millwall.
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,983

    The Hull game is pivotal, everybody can see that.
    Bows will want the 3 points, so I'm hoping he'll set up for the win.

    We can only play 1 game at a time. That can be the only focus.


    Teams in the bottom half still have to play each other - they can't both win, plenty of dropped points there. And surprises, no doubt.

    We've a 9-match mini-season. We need points - but only 1 more than the club that finishes 22nd.


    There may also be a club that unexpectedly freefalls, that can't get started as they don't think they're in danger and the players think they're already on holiday.

    And the EFL might finally get their act together with Sheff W/Derby/Brum but don't bet on it.

    But unless we straightaway string 4 wins in a row (thanks, Millwall :smile:), then it's impossible to predict the earliest mathematical safety date.
  • BR7_addick
    BR7_addick Posts: 10,221
    5 wins from 9 and you’d have 54 points, that will definitely see us safe, not mathematically but highly probable.  I’d even say 4 wins a draw would do it.
  • PopIcon
    PopIcon Posts: 5,970
    I have a horrible feeling we will end up bottom of the table.
  • robroy
    robroy Posts: 4,469
    Five wins from nine? I just can’t see it 
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,983
    edited June 2020
    BR7_addick said:
    5 wins from 9 and you’d have 54 points, that will definitely see us safe, not mathematically but highly probable.  I’d even say 4 wins a draw would do it.
    3 wins and 3 draws could possibly be enough.

    Other teams will drop points, some still have to play each other, so how many points needed for safety much depends on the form of others.

    But most of all, we have to help ourselves ..... if we can begin by stringing some decent results together - and not lose to other relegation rivals, then that will build team confidence.

    It's in our own hands.


  • EveshamAddick
    EveshamAddick Posts: 7,044
    We need to do what we did back in August.
  • blackpool72
    blackpool72 Posts: 23,802
    EveshamAddick said:
    We need to do what we did back in August.
    What .
    Play Gallagher  Taylor  Leko. 

  • Sponsored links:



  • Lewis Coaches
    Lewis Coaches Posts: 5,423
    Dazzler21 said:
    Hull
    Wigan
    Middlesbrough 
    Huddersfield 
    Stoke

    All within 3 points, all cannot catch Birmingham, Sheffield or Reading easily.

    Boro equal us on GD
    Stoke have a GD of -6 to our -10.

    Below is Barnsley take on QPR, while Luton take on Preston, hard to see either getting a result.

    Discounting those sides, 
    We take on Hull, but a draw or loss isn't the end of the day as it's hard to see results for all of the three around us as
    Wigan take on Huddersfield
    Reading take on Stoke.

    At least one other side will drop points and become our target.
    some good games coming up

    20 june Huddersfield v Wigan and Hull v Charlton
    27 june Stoke v Middlesbrough
    30 june Wigan v Stoke
      2 july  Hull v Middlesbrough
      4 july Stoke v Barnsley
      7 july Luton v Barnsley
    11 july Barnsley v Wigan and Huddersfield v Luton
    14 july Wigan v Hull 
    18 july Charlton v Wigan and Hull v Luton

    Anything could happen of course but the games between the bottom eight will tell the outcome of the season.

  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,983
    edited June 2020
    Interesting that 5 of Wigan's remaining 9 games are against teams fighting against relegation.
    They also play promotion/play off hopefuls Blackburn, Brentford - plus Fulham their final game.

    Hull play 4 of those struggling. 
    Stoke 3.
    Luton 3.

    A lot of points to be dropped here.




Categories

“Marketplace”