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Savings and Investments thread
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The modern equivalent of the village elders estimating the weight of a cow for salePragueAddick said:OK, will have to do this in bits. like I said, pretty clunky as spreadsheets not my forte
Here is what I think is the most important result.
For all 27 of us as a group the median accuracy was 97.8%, and average accuracy was 98.3%.
That is remarkably impressive, is it not?4 -
Needed a worse day to get down to my level. But, congrats to winner.0
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So Top 5, accuracy % vs final index figure 6461, followed by O (Optimistic) or P (Pessimistic). All the Top 5 were on the pessimistic side
1.PragueAddick
6450 99.8% P
2.Rob7Lee
6420 99.4% P
3.RalphMilne
6397 99.0% P
4.Exiled in Manchester
6320 97.8% P
5.happy valley
6299 97.5% P
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@Covered End, if you have a spread of the results of the whole 27, and it's postable on here, please go ahead, as I'm drowning in clunk. I'll go make a cuppa and brag to my wife.0
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Congrats. I will now be following your tips, not Golfie's, in future!PragueAddick said:OK, will have to do this in bits. like I said, pretty clunky as spreadsheets not my forte
Here is what I think is the most important result.
For all 27 of us as a group the median accuracy was 97.8%, and average accuracy was 98.3%.
That is remarkably impressive, is it not?
Before you put the results up - which will show me hopelessly adrift - can I please say that years of disappointment in following Charlton have turned me into a complete pessimist that is also now reflected in my reading of the stock market.
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Correct, it was close..... but no Cigar.......... I still think it should have been like the price is right, not a penny over allowedHuskaris said:6,460.52 is the finish I believe. You were even closer!
Don't act like you don't know that, at the LSE on your Bloomberg terminal though ;-)
Congratulations.
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Covered End said:Congratulations to Prague and the other 10 that beat me.Not sure how many were in the competition - let's call it 'x'.Congratulations to Prague and the other (x-2) that beat me.1
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See below
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Yes I confirm I have those two logged...can you easily slot them in @Rob7Lee?0
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Sure;PragueAddick said:Yes I confirm I have those two logged...can you easily slot them in @Rob7Lee?
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Bang average, story of my life.Rob7Lee said:
Sure;PragueAddick said:Yes I confirm I have those two logged...can you easily slot them in @Rob7Lee?0 -
That's unusual, @TelMc32 sitting next to me. 😂Huskaris said:
Bang average, story of my life.Rob7Lee said:
Sure;PragueAddick said:Yes I confirm I have those two logged...can you easily slot them in @Rob7Lee?2 -
At least I was 2nd in the optimistic stakes. Not often you can say that !!1
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At least I wasn’t relegated. Always pessimistic but glad I was wrong.0
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Bottom two relegated?HardyAddick said:At least I wasn’t relegated. Always pessimistic but glad I was wrong.2 -
Congrats Prague.
The fall today put me back in the top 10. Small consolation to a drop in my portfolio.0 -
I'm sure our portfolios will look a fair bit better this time next yearStrikerFirmani said:Congrats Prague.
The fall today put me back in the top 10. Small consolation to a drop in my portfolio.
Happy New Year to all punters (and optimistic IFAs
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Happy New Year everyone and congratulations to Prague!
Mid table mediocrity for me but I'm looking to freshen things up in the January window!0 -
I guess I should explain myself.
My prediction was based on:
1. No proven vaccine being found by year-end and the associated longer-term impact on the global economy, austerity, unemployment, loan defaults, etc.
I was wrong on the vaccine element - that was a 50/50 punt as I saw it and I looked the wrong way. The longer-term fallout is still to be seen if/when the props are removed.
2. The beginnings of a commercial & residential property market crash in the developed world and mortgage defaults galore.
The big unravel doesn't seem to be happening yet, certainly not on the residential side in the southeast!
3. An overdue crash in the US stock market having a ripple-effect over here.
I thought a US crash was long overdue even before the pandemic. It sort-of happened in March but this was due to pandemic-related uncertainty, and since then the market bounced back. I think we still have this correction to come, but 'properly' next time.
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In line with your "thoughts" my prediction was based on the following (which was garnered from various different investment webinars)Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:I guess I should explain myself.
My prediction was based on:
1. No proven vaccine being found by year-end and the associated longer-term impact on the global economy, austerity, unemployment, loan defaults, etc.
I was wrong on the vaccine element - that was a 50/50 punt as I saw it and I looked the wrong way. The longer-term fallout is still to be seen if/when the props are removed.
2. The beginnings of a commercial & residential property market crash in the developed world and mortgage defaults galore.
The big unravel doesn't seem to be happening yet, certainly not on the residential side in the southeast!
3. An overdue crash in the US stock market having a ripple-effect over here.
I thought a US crash was long overdue even before the pandemic. It sort-of happened in March but this was due to pandemic-related uncertainty, and since then the market bounced back. I think we still have this correction to come, but 'properly' next time.
1) A vaccine would be rolled our before the end if the year. I posted this "fact" back in September but was scoffed at (mostly by @Jimmymelrose).
2) The Government have done all they can (and more) to stop people losing their jobs. Then there was the stamp duty holiday & the fact that Brexit had also "frozen" the housing market. You wont be seeing reposssions anytime soon.
3) I agree the US looks overheated, but the UK is still well below where it was in February and even further below where it should be, pound for pound, compared to many other leading Indices.0 -
Happy new year investors/Savers!!
So onto the 2021 challenge/competition. What will the FTSE 100 be on 30th June 2021?
To make it a little more covert, rather than post up on here, if everyone sends me a private message with their prediction I'll spreadsheet it and when all votes are in i'll post up. Shall we say closing date a week today, 7th Jan?
So it's not see as i'm cheating i'll message mine to this years winner Prague.
As a reminder we ended 2020 @ 6,460.52 - will it go up, will it go down.
I'll also post up monthly the table as it stands.....
That Ok with everyone?
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Seems fair to me, I’m in.1
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Just tweaking my formula
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Very happy finishing 8th.
Now to try and beat it.0 -
I would not have made the top 25 if I'd been included here
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Ha! This is what a career looking after Partnerships & not corporates does to you. Need to pay more attention this year 😄guinnessaddick said:
That's unusual, @TelMc32 sitting next to me. 😂Huskaris said:
Bang average, story of my life.Rob7Lee said:
Sure;PragueAddick said:Yes I confirm I have those two logged...can you easily slot them in @Rob7Lee?0 -
Isn’t that the formula for defending a one goal lead ?MrOneLung said:Just tweaking my formula 4 -
No, it doesn’t work out.letthegoodtimesroll said:
Isn’t that the formula for defending a one goal lead ?MrOneLung said:Just tweaking my formula 0
