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Savings and Investments thread
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Unless you're seeing something different to me I wouldn't call a 1% fall a "meltdown". Admittedly the Dow & the S&P500 were both in positive territory with about 2 hours to go, but nothing a profits warning or a statement from The Fed wouldnt spark.WishIdStayedinthePub said:Interesting melt down in US stocks this evening. Appears to be Russia as yields are fairly steady.1 -
Thanks all who've put their prediction in so far, here's the list of what I have, please double check and those that are blank 10 days to go!
Name Level Rob7Lee 7605 CharltonKerry 7860 Bangkokaddick golfaddick blackpool72 7880 StrikerFirmani RalphMilne 7702 PragueAddick 7533 wwaddick 8002 Daarrrzzettbum 7717 Killer Kish Exiledin Manchester Morboe gunnessaddick 7936 Housty Pedro45 7297 Fortune 82nd Minute Hoof_it_up_to_benty CAFCWest 7799 Covered End 7721 Redman meldrew66 7337 cafc7-6htfc WishIdStayedInThe Pub 7803 Addick Addict 7652 Gary Poole 7574 thecat 7690 Huskaris Thread Killer 7437 holyjo 7594 IdleHans 7777 LargeAddick 7547 valleynick66 7801 MrOneLung 7270 Salad KentAddick fat man on a moped @TelMc32 HardyAddick 7892 Lonelynorthernaddick bobmunro 7897 No.1 in South London oohaahmortimer 6789 Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch 1 -
7845 please0
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7100 for me.0
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7686 please
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Can anyone play this or do you need a financial advisor ?3
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77500
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Maybe not a meltdown, to be fair, but the NASDAQ's now 11% down from the peak and below its 200d moving average.golfaddick said:
Unless you're seeing something different to me I wouldn't call a 1% fall a "meltdown". Admittedly the Dow & the S&P500 were both in positive territory with about 2 hours to go, but nothing a profits warning or a statement from The Fed wouldnt spark.WishIdStayedinthePub said:Interesting melt down in US stocks this evening. Appears to be Russia as yields are fairly steady.
Next week will give some indication if earnings are going to allay inflation fears. Netflix wasn't a good start and shares like Peleton, masquerading as tech shares, are getting hammered.1 -
Yup. It wasn't just last night that there have been large falls in the Dow and NASDAQ, this has been going on since the start of the year.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Maybe not a meltdown, to be fair, but the NASDAQ's now 11% down from the peak and below its 200d moving average.golfaddick said:
Unless you're seeing something different to me I wouldn't call a 1% fall a "meltdown". Admittedly the Dow & the S&P500 were both in positive territory with about 2 hours to go, but nothing a profits warning or a statement from The Fed wouldnt spark.WishIdStayedinthePub said:Interesting melt down in US stocks this evening. Appears to be Russia as yields are fairly steady.
Next week will give some indication if earnings are going to allay inflation fears. Netflix wasn't a good start and shares like Peleton, masquerading as tech shares, are getting hammered.
And its effect on some very popular funds has been dramatic. On 31/12 BG America stood at 18.65. It is now 14.68 and will be a lot lower tonight. BG Global Discovery was 22.76 on 31/12. Now it is 19.01. Last year's gains being wiped out in weeks.
Even everyone's favourite - Fundsmith Equity - has hit the buffers. 6.78 on 31/12, now 6.16.
You refer to Peleton. I will offer you a similar share I hold - Experian. Down 20% since the start of the year for absolutely no good reason I can see. (It has even published really good results during this time).
These are huge falls which just make me think that we kid ourselves we are investing. Really at times like this I can only say we are gambling.
If anyone's portfolio is higher now than at the start of the month, then I will happily use you as my financial adviser!0 -
Can the markets stop dumping plz?0
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@golfaddick, at what % would you implement a stop loss on a fund?0
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It does seem like a large element of gambling and guesswork.Fortune 82nd Minute said:
Yup. It wasn't just last night that there have been large falls in the Dow and NASDAQ, this has been going on since the start of the year.WishIdStayedinthePub said:
Maybe not a meltdown, to be fair, but the NASDAQ's now 11% down from the peak and below its 200d moving average.golfaddick said:
Unless you're seeing something different to me I wouldn't call a 1% fall a "meltdown". Admittedly the Dow & the S&P500 were both in positive territory with about 2 hours to go, but nothing a profits warning or a statement from The Fed wouldnt spark.WishIdStayedinthePub said:Interesting melt down in US stocks this evening. Appears to be Russia as yields are fairly steady.
Next week will give some indication if earnings are going to allay inflation fears. Netflix wasn't a good start and shares like Peleton, masquerading as tech shares, are getting hammered.
And its effect on some very popular funds has been dramatic. On 31/12 BG America stood at 18.65. It is now 14.68 and will be a lot lower tonight. BG Global Discovery was 22.76 on 31/12. Now it is 19.01. Last year's gains being wiped out in weeks.
Even everyone's favourite - Fundsmith Equity - has hit the buffers. 6.78 on 31/12, now 6.16.
You refer to Peleton. I will offer you a similar share I hold - Experian. Down 20% since the start of the year for absolutely no good reason I can see. (It has even published really good results during this time).
These are huge falls which just make me think that we kid ourselves we are investing. Really at times like this I can only say we are gambling.
If anyone's portfolio is higher now than at the start of the month, then I will happily use you as my financial adviser!0 -
AFAIK that isn't even possible. Not on unit trusts anyway or whatever they call them now. It is one of the many ways in which funds are not traded in the best interest of ordinary punters. Even if it is better than when I started getting into this stuff, back in around '89, when there was a 5% bid-offer spread. For no good reason.mendonca said:@golfaddick, at what % would you implement a stop loss on a fund?
You can do it with investment trusts I think.
Someone who knows may correct me.1 -
That's true Prague. Lazy wording from my behalf, as I mean an approx mental stop loss for a fund. Lets say for example if somebody held one too many BG funds, I would advise an approx % before they sell and risk losing their capital.
The classic investor mistake is to hold on too long, and only sell once things get painful (which probably means taking a big loss too). We saw this with many holders of Woodford's fund. Sometimes, at times like this I find it useful to move into global trackers.
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Well again, James Slack may beg to differ. I am one of those who got done by Woodford, but that's because he went rogue. That is more about lack of regulatory oversight than market behaviour. Punters bought in thinking he would run it much like he did at Invesco, whereas unbeknown to us, he had gone completely in another direction with the fund, and nobdoy really knew. In fact one of my bugbears is how difficult it is to see what a fund, any fund, is investing in at any one time. On the Hargreaves Lansdowne platform it kindly allows me to see what the 10 biggest holdings are. But in most cases that won't let you see 75% of the total holdings.mendonca said:That's true Prague. Lazy wording from my behalf, as I mean an approx mental stop loss for a fund. Lets say for example if somebody held one too many BG funds, I would advise an approx % before they sell and risk losing their capital.
The classic investor mistake is to hold on too long, and only sell once things get painful (which probably means taking a big loss too). We saw this with many holders of Woodford's fund. Sometimes, at times like this I find it useful to move into global trackers.0 -
7747 please0
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Netflix down 20% pre open… Black Friday today?0
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Today's FT editorial. ( "A much needed market correction" )They can be as wrong as the next financial commentator, but to me it makes a lot of sense: Extract below
Even after the recent sell-off, markets and technology stocks in particular are still up significantly from two years ago. The “correction” is aptly named: valuations of some of these companies got out of hand relative to their underlying earnings. A minor fall will add some needed discipline to the market, reminding investors that share prices can go both ways. Bitcoin, an obvious indicator of speculative frenzy, has fallen to its lowest level for five months.
Others may see the recent drop as a buying opportunity. While the Fed is embarking on a tightening cycle in response to higher inflation, long-term equilibrium interest rates are still likely to end up low by historic standards, supporting equity values. The fundamental demographic and technological drivers of the secular decline in long-term interest rates, such as ageing populations putting away more to save for their retirement, will only change slowly. Tech companies, too, have often proved resilient. The changes provoked by the pandemic, whether it is how we shop, work or relax, may take longer to bed in than first predicted. Markets may have got ahead of themselves with the bull market but they should not overdo the correction either. With or without Netflix they can chill.
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7407 please0
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PragueAddick said:Today's FT editorial. ( "A much needed market correction" )They can be as wrong as the next financial commentator, but to me it makes a lot of sense: Extract below
Even after the recent sell-off, markets and technology stocks in particular are still up significantly from two years ago. The “correction” is aptly named: valuations of some of these companies got out of hand relative to their underlying earnings. A minor fall will add some needed discipline to the market, reminding investors that share prices can go both ways. Bitcoin, an obvious indicator of speculative frenzy, has fallen to its lowest level for five months.
Others may see the recent drop as a buying opportunity. While the Fed is embarking on a tightening cycle in response to higher inflation, long-term equilibrium interest rates are still likely to end up low by historic standards, supporting equity values. The fundamental demographic and technological drivers of the secular decline in long-term interest rates, such as ageing populations putting away more to save for their retirement, will only change slowly. Tech companies, too, have often proved resilient. The changes provoked by the pandemic, whether it is how we shop, work or relax, may take longer to bed in than first predicted. Markets may have got ahead of themselves with the bull market but they should not overdo the correction either. With or without Netflix they can chill.
My overall book is down about 5% from the start of the year; my tech holdings are down almost 20%! It's an interesting aricle and I totally understand it. I was heavier into tech a year ago and I'm glad to say I rebalanced or I'd be down a lot more. I'm not panicking and I'll simply hold for now. A 20% drop, however, requires a 25% rise to get back to the same position.
Netflix doesn't surprise me as there's much more competition out there now that have been slow to catch up; Prime's content improves all the time, plus you get the Amazon delivery advantages, and Disney+ has a lot that appeals to families and if people are choosing just one then Neflix is no longer necessarily the first choice.
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Just examining the damage to my funds portfolio. The damage to the Baillie Gifford funds is pretty apparent. Looking at the last 6 months, here are how two of their funds do compared with two other funds I hold in the same respective sectors
BG European down 13%; Jupiter European down 3%
BG Positive Change down 16%; Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity down 2%
So, should I be like a footie club chairman? Has BG lost its mojo? Sell, sell, sell? I don't think so. Unfortunately I can only get limited info from H-L on the holdings, but certainly their European fund does not seem to suffer from "too much tech", so I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and top up a fair bit on that one.
Positive Change is a more awkward one. Only 33 holdings; 8% of the fund in Moderna, 7% in Tesla. 18 % in the Pharma and Biotech sector, 14% in Technology Hardware& equipment. Tesla bothers me more than Moderna, but overall I think it invests in the right sectors for growth. Its 3 and 5 year performance is simply stellar (109 and 219%). Sod it, I'll top that up too.
(and if you think I'm trying to pull a big Warren Buffett here or something, I'm only investing because I still have a dollop of cash in my SIPP, sitting in stark rebuke to my own rant against cash
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I'll have a word with both BG and Jupiter and see if I can get a fuller breakdown of the shares each one holds instead of just the 10 largest that the monthly fact sheets give.PragueAddick said:Just examining the damage to my funds portfolio. The damage to the Baillie Gifford funds is pretty apparent. Looking at the last 6 months, here are how two of their funds do compared with two other funds I hold in the same respective sectors
BG European down 13%; Jupiter European down 3%
BG Positive Change down 16%; Janus Henderson Global Sustainable Equity down 2%
So, should I be like a footie club chairman? Has BG lost its mojo? Sell, sell, sell? I don't think so. Unfortunately I can only get limited info from H-L on the holdings, but certainly their European fund does not seem to suffer from "too much tech", so I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and top up a fair bit on that one.
Positive Change is a more awkward one. Only 33 holdings; 8% of the fund in Moderna, 7% in Tesla. 18 % in the Pharma and Biotech sector, 14% in Technology Hardware& equipment. Tesla bothers me more than Moderna, but overall I think it invests in the right sectors for growth. Its 3 and 5 year performance is simply stellar (109 and 219%). Sod it, I'll top that up too.
(and if you think I'm trying to pull a big Warren Buffett here or something, I'm only investing because I still have a dollop of cash in my SIPP, sitting in stark rebuke to my own rant against cash ) 1 -
I bought some BG positive change fairly recently. So far, could not have been less appropriately named.
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my SIPP is barely in the black. Stock market is clearly a scam.1
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Interesting that you feel confident topping up some BG funds. Are you deciding simply on the dip price and past performance? What if the falling knife continues to drop and tech/growth funds take a further pounding. They've been in a super bubble since CV hit.0
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I’ve got very little left in BG. Took all my profit out some while back. Might be a good time to dip back in.0
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If something I hold drops, and I have cash to invest, I try to establish if the reasons I bought it then, still apply, and if the answer seems to be “yes” , then I buy some more. Getting the same thing for a better price. Stood me in good stead, and is especially appropriate for income-driven stockholdings.mendonca said:Interesting that you feel confident topping up some BG funds. Are you deciding simply on the dip price and past performance? What if the falling knife continues to drop and tech/growth funds take a further pounding. They've been in a super bubble since CV hit.2
