We got £2m for mason burstow after he played 7 games. There is just no doubt that Leaburn must be a minimum of twice that
Burstow was 2 years younger and not off the back of a serious injury. If we get offered over £5m in Jan then the club 100% takes it, I just can't see that happening.
Don’t see the age as relevant. Miles is extremely young and has his entire career ahead of him in reality, and has demonstrated about 30 times the potential that burstow did. The injury is relevant but as only 1 injury I don’t think hugely in terms of value.
Burstow's age made it easier to take a punt on him. Even after failed loans back at us and then Sunderland, Chelsea still turned a slight profit on his transfer fee two years down the line.
I agree Leaburn is a better player than Burstow although think he's far off where Lookman was. I expect him to go in the summer and I hope to be proven wrong about his fee but just struggle to see it being anymore than £5m unless he really sets the second half of the season alight.
I think we get carried away at times, people wanted £5m for May
I agree people get carried away on the whole but I don’t agree at all that burstows age made it easier to take a punt on him. Leaburn is only 21! That is prime age, and there are several examples of players going for substantial money at a similar age and with less evidence of pedigree.
I mean let’s roll this back… we paid 2.5m for Luke Varney when he was 25 years of age based on a couple of seasons for Crewe. That was almost 20 years ago. Leaburn aged 21 with the record he has to date must command AT LEAST the equivalent fee in real terms today which allowing for inflation again takes you to 5m or more (not all up front, obviously).
Bloody hell, using Luke Varney as a bench mark for what we should be getting for Miles Leaburn is really reaching.
If we get offered £2M - £3M I think we’d take it, £5M and we definitely would. Don’t delude yourselves that we’ll be seeing much more than that.
I’m not deluding myself about anything, I have no trust whatsoever in our board, however, that doesn’t change what a realistic market value of Leaburn is/ should be.
Don’t delude yourself that his market value is less than it is just because our desperate board might take a quick buck
His “market value” is simply how much someone is willing to pay, and how much we are willing to sell for. Has nothing to do with the transfer fee paid for Luke Varney decades ago.
You're correct about market value, but until you enter the market, estimated valuations and what as a seller you are likely to seek is generally based on comparables.
You can ignore Luke Varney if you want, but there are many comparables which would indicate a much higher market value than £2m, and as much as I don't trust the current ownership - I'm certainly glad you are not at the helm as going in for £2m would be abysmal negotiation and management given Leaburn's age, record and visible potential
The only real factor in what we could hope to get for Leaburn is not what we want for him, but what other clubs are willing to pay for him. If we demand too much they will look elsewhere or wait until his contract is running down. He’s good but he has only played in the 3rd tier and has already had the best part of a year injured.
Correct again.
Again though, what they’re willing to pay for him will be informed by what else they could get comparatively and again by comparables.
There is no doubt teams will be willing to pay substantial money for Leaburn given his CV (and barring another injury which would change things) and possible onward valuation.
The absolute worst case scenario for somebody interested in Leaburn is he turns out to be a possibly injury prone, proven league one striker with his entire career ahead of him. A proven league one striker now is £1m - that’s what Rotherham paid for Sam Nombe, supposedly 800k for Alfie May into his 30s, posh paid £1.4m for Jonson Clarke Harris a couple of years ago.
That’s the worst case scenario. Reality likely to be a certainly higher ceiling and there is also a best case scenario that he develops into an Ivan Toney, 50m+.
As I say, barring another major injury, £2m would be pitiful negotiation. I thought Burstow looked rubbish and couldn’t believe somebody gave us what they did for him.
Toney's increase in transfer fees is remarkable isn't it. Just shows how a player can develop far beyond what some clubs expect.
2015 - Northampton to Newcastle, £500k 2018 - Newcastle to Peterborough, £390k 2020 - Peterborough to Brentford, £6m (plus add/ons) 2024 - Brentford to Al Ahli, £40m
A useful precedent. £6m for a league one striker aged 24.
Not really comparable in my opinion though. I get that people are biased and obviously want us to make as much money as possible on his inevitable transfer but i think some people are getting carried away.
Toney scored 49 goals in two seasons for Peterborough and before that had 2 successful loans at Scunthorpe in league one as well. He had played far more and scored far more than Leaburn has.
Leaburn is coming off the back of two injuries and doesn't even have 20 career goals in this division.
However it's also worth noting that Peterborough were very shrewd when they sold him, there were add ons for Brentford getting promoted, staying up, a certain number of appearances, an England cap etc. I think in total they ended up receiving close to 10m.
He was also older so assumed less growth / improvement potential than people might allow for Leaburn. Toney for £6m up front (as mentioned now £7.5m or more allowing for inflation), all this idea that Leaburn is £2m, is crazy.
Based on Toney, Burstow, Lookman, many other examples (Luke Varney!), we should be looking to get a minimum of £3-4m guaranteed with potential add ons too.
For those that don’t like the above historic comparables, Hull have today agreed to pay 2.5m for Kyle Joseph from Blackpool. Not as good as Leaburn, older and not the same pedigree.
Amazing i have a mate who thinks he is crap and should be sold.
I get there are varying opinions on how good he is and how much potential he has, but he’s our second top scorer. It’s not as if he’s struggled to contribute this season.
i think he blows hot and cold, as you would expect from a young player but i also think the lack of power, acceleration and aggression will hold him back as you just can't learn that - he is and will be a good player but i'm also in the 'a lot of our fans overrate him' camp - i don't really remember him having a run of games where he was on fire - he's done good things in bursts and had good moments in games for me rather than being a real constant danger man
He’s an outstanding young talent, who’s got all the attributes to be a top player and I’m sure will go far. He’s lost an entire year of his young development and is having spells since coming back of being excellent and then needing a rest.
We have now, thank goodness, a club and a manager who are qualified to deal with that and let him develop at his own pace. He will play an important role in the rest of the season should we have any success.
A few tired games after his first prolonged spell as starter in 18 months shouldn’t mean anyone’s opinion of him slips.
What it is easy to forget about Miles is the injury he had was a major one. It must bring it home to a young player what a fragile career this is. He has shown that he still has the attributes and I think there is something special in there and it is a real positive that we don't have to rely on it yet. He can flourish in his own time and he is in teh best place to do so IMO.
Funnily enough him not being able to get in the side over Tyreece Campbell might mean we keep him for yet another season. If things stay as they are.
Might it? The one thing we possibly have over clubs higher up the pyramid is that he'll get regular games here.
If he's not getting that may as well be earning more at a Championship club, or in a PL reserve team/getting loaned out?
I agree with @Callumcafc, in the sense that we won't be relying on Miles so much as we thought even a few weeks ago, so the spotlight is off him. All of a sudden we have a chance to sneak promotion and can offer him the chance to prove himself at the higher level without risking a move. (A bit tenuous though, I concede)
I think he will be sold in the summer to fund the next transfer window. However I don’t think we will get anything like some posters on here suggest
I think he’s very highly rated amongst neutrals and pundits etc. probably a more objective and reliable view than the divided opinions you get amongst the fanbase. With a year left on his contract I’d expect £3m as an absolute minimum fee but would hope for more than that really
Struggling for a bit of form and some people are digging him out, absolute bellends. Leaburn's a very good player, let him find his form again. So many ripping into him last night it was a joke.
Miles is a young striker all strikers go through patches and he seems a bit low on confidence give him time and the tide will turn. Last night when he spun their player and found himself 1 on 1 he slowed down allowing the first player to get back and rob the ball and confident miles would have not slowed down
Struggling for a bit of form and some people are digging him out, absolute bellends. Leaburn's a very good player, let him find his form again. So many ripping into him last night it was a joke.
Crazy that our fans have anything to moan about atm.
Leaburn has a lot of potential but is still learning the game. We forget that when he is on the top of his game but he will be back to full form soon. Thats what players with his talent do.
No doubt he would be a double digit scorer if starting regularly. That being said we are a better squad with Godden starting and Leaburns lack of effort at times this year has been disappointing
Leaburn is a fantastic asset to CAFC and should stay for the long term; that's enough about our Tracey for now, what about Miles ?
Let's start with the easy ones: Gomez and Lookman looked destined to play at a high level and both have. Konsa played at full back and CB and looked class if still raw but has continued to improve at Brentford and Villa. Cousins always looked like a championship player as his ceiling and it was. Smith and Pigott were both written off at CAFC but I said they would have pro careers possibly League 2 for Joe and 1 for Michael; About right though Smith has scored in the Championship. Aribo was at least a Championship player but he struggles in the Premier and his best time was with Rangers.
Miles Leaburn is really difficult to access because he can get bossed by the big strong CB's in League 1 but can also on a good day look Sharp with skill and movement and score the odd goal. Despite only being 21 my opinion is IF Miles can stay fit he will develop into a Championship regular player or a squad player for a recently promoted side to the Premier.
The Jury definitely out on Miles and personally I hope he stays at CAFC to develop for next season but if an offer of 4 to 5 million came in with add on's then we should accept and both Tracey and Carl would be proud parents, though they already are with having a smashing lad as a son.
Comments
https://www.skysports.com/football/video/30998/13299521/league-one-best-players-21-and-under
We have now, thank goodness, a club and a manager who are qualified to deal with that and let him develop at his own pace. He will play an important role in the rest of the season should we have any success.
If he's not getting that may as well be earning more at a Championship club, or in a PL reserve team/getting loaned out?
He'll be sold this summer if he doesn't sign a new deal
Is he purposely limiting how much running he’s doing as he’s not fully fit?
The best I can see for Leaburn is a relegated Championship club coming in for him.
Let's start with the easy ones:
Gomez and Lookman looked destined to play at a high level and both have. Konsa played at full back and CB and looked class if still raw but has continued to improve at Brentford and Villa.
Cousins always looked like a championship player as his ceiling and it was.
Smith and Pigott were both written off at CAFC but I said they would have pro careers possibly League 2 for Joe and 1 for Michael; About right though Smith has scored in the Championship.
Aribo was at least a Championship player but he struggles in the Premier and his best time was with Rangers.
Miles Leaburn is really difficult to access because he can get bossed by the big strong CB's in League 1 but can also on a good day look Sharp with skill and movement and score the odd goal.
Despite only being 21 my opinion is IF Miles can stay fit he will develop into a Championship regular player or a squad player for a recently promoted side to the Premier.
The Jury definitely out on Miles and personally I hope he stays at CAFC to develop for next season but if an offer of 4 to 5 million came in with add on's then we should accept and both Tracey and Carl would be proud parents, though they already are with having a smashing lad as a son.