Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
Youre a braver man than me if you do. I would expect the huge interest rate to be fully negated by a commensurate fall in the value of Turkiye's currency
Youre a braver man than me if you do. I would expect the huge interest rate to be fully negated by a commensurate fall in the value of Turkiye's currency
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
I don't know why but there's something about this guy I really don't like. I agree with almost everything he says, but his voice and mannerisms reallllly grate on me!
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
Been following Gary since he started posting early in Covid. He's bang on every time and the only voice out there calling out the root causes of our economic, social and political problems in the UK. Frankly the only voice we should be listening to on the economy right now.
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
I don't know why but there's something about this guy I really don't like. I agree with almost everything he says, but his voice and mannerisms reallllly grate on me!
Echo that. Saw him on Question Time last month. Came across as a bit of a know it all and Mr Billy big Bollox
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
I don't know why but there's something about this guy I really don't like. I agree with almost everything he says, but his voice and mannerisms reallllly grate on me!
Echo that. Saw him on Question Time last month. Came across as a bit of a know it all and Mr Billy big Bollox
I don't agree. But even if that's true I think he's earnt that right. Read his book, learn about his background and the things he's overcome to get to where he did (LSE & Cambridge, top trader in the UK multiple years running, one of the best in the world). He doesn't need to be doing this. He could happily be on the beach somewhere living off what he made, or still doing it making more millions every year. He genuinely cares.
I will say he comes across a bit more frustrated in the last year or so (which is also when his platform has taken off). I think he originally started with a lotnof optimism that he could impact change, people in power would listen he would unite a left leaning movement based on sound economics etc. That that hasn't happened and the world has only got worse in the exact way he said it would is I think frustrating him.
How long do people think it will take for the S&P to recover to the high in Feb of 6,147 (currently 5363)?
I think it will be at least 18 months, or potentially when Trump leaves office
It’ll be a while for sure. But then it’s still up 30% on 2 years ago and about 7% on a year ago. Compare that to the FTSE….
my SIPP is pretty much back to where it was, mainly as I was mostly in cash and then bought some before and during the Dip. I’m still 50% in cash and will invest at least half of that slowly over the next 6 months or so.
my ISA is down about 5%.
Where the S&P 500 plus the FTSE and Europe index are today compared to where they were 6-12 months ago is history and cannot be changed. What matters is where these and bonds might be by end 2025, AND how much people can afford to contribute so as to boost their funds.
Many will see there losses gently reduce just by doing nothing but watch. But is there a more effective strategy?
The annual performance is one element, but the tax relief (esp. for higher earner) on contributions is also very significant when one looks at each £10K. There's also geographic / ethical considerations over where to invest longer term. Most on here agree that attempting to buy the dip, or sell at the top is somewhat challenging... For me the question is where to go for advice so as to enhance the chances that long term goals are achieved.
You're right that what is happened is history. But we should firstly learn from history. Firstly looking at massive growth in S&P over recent times, secondly, as @golfaddick just said, a correction was due, thirdly that the US stock market has consistently been the best investment performer over the last 125 years. As for advice, stating the obvious, a good IFA, but also important to have your own views and goals. I don't always agree with him but @golfaddick seems to have his screwed on!
Working class man trying to take down the establishment. They don't want you to like him.
His voice sounds like most people i know.
And certainly like most of the 18k voices we'll hear at the Valley this afternoon.
I've listened to him too, since when the FT got hold of him and did a big interview. The one thing I'm slightly reserved about is that sometimes he has been a bit fast and loose with numbers based facts. Gets a bit carried away by his rhetoric occasionally. But well worth an audience.
Meanwhile I found this helpful in today's FT . Simon Edelman is a fund manager at Goshawk Asset Management (which I have never heard of)
"I started investing in the early 1980s, and neither my colleagues nor I have witnessed anything like the days before Trump’s partial climbdown on April 9. We have seen crises, crashes and inflation shocks. At times we have disagreed with US economic policy. Never have we gone so far as to call it “deranged”.
Maybe Trump will backtrack further. However, even if sensible compromises are found, the events of the past couple of weeks have surely permanently damaged the confidence companies will have trading with the US and the access American companies will have in the rest of the world.
So how should investors act? I and others have been warning for some time about the risks of having too much of your wealth in a global index tracker. A dozen years ago US equities made up just under half of the global index; recently that figure has risen to nearer 70 per cent. This seems out of kilter with the US share of world GDP.
US companies have often looked more profitable than their peers in other countries, but some of the higher margins may have come from their large domestic market and easy access to overseas markets. Perhaps those days have ended. Reducing exposure to the US and tilting more towards European and Asian equities seems sensible.
Some investors might still be tempted to buy fallen US tech stocks on the dip. I have no desire to bite into Apple. It seems extraordinary to me that this huge company had no substantial plan B for moving production outside China. Nervous investors might look at Nvidia and ask why it has not encouraged its Taiwanese chip manufacturer, TSMC, to build a plant in the US much sooner. TSMC is about to start production in Arizona, but this will only make five million chips and is delayed. The faster chips Nvidia needs may come from the next-generation fabrication plants, estimated to cost more than $50bn and maybe opening in 2029 — but Trump is trying to reduce his contribution.
Any rally in technology stocks could be challenged by the EU response to tariffs. The “bazooka” may include EU sanctions on US companies. Maybe the EU will also suggest these companies pay some tax. Too many risks? It makes sense to me not to abandon, but to tilt away from the US and superpower multinational tech companies. These will arguably be affected most by a more protectionist world. Instead, you might search out “regional champions” less impacted by tariffs. "
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
I don't know why but there's something about this guy I really don't like. I agree with almost everything he says, but his voice and mannerisms reallllly grate on me!
Echo that. Saw him on Question Time last month. Came across as a bit of a know it all and Mr Billy big Bollox
I don't agree. But even if that's true I think he's earnt that right. Read his book, learn about his background and the things he's overcome to get to where he did (LSE & Cambridge, top trader in the UK multiple years running, one of the best in the world). He doesn't need to be doing this. He could happily be on the beach somewhere living off what he made, or still doing it making more millions every year. He genuinely cares.
I will say he comes across a bit more frustrated in the last year or so (which is also when his platform has taken off). I think he originally started with a lotnof optimism that he could impact change, people in power would listen he would unite a left leaning movement based on sound economics etc. That that hasn't happened and the world has only got worse in the exact way he said it would is I think frustrating him.
Read his book earlier this year. Think he’s a bit of a bullshitter on the ‘most profitable trader’ nonsense tbh and no real explanation as to why he ditched a lot of his family and friends. Generally makes some good points but don’t believe a lot of what comes out of his mouth.
Dow down another 500 points, but if UnitedHealth had not tanked by $120bn yesterday it would have been up 260 points
And there is a compelling reason why the article I quoted above resonates with me.
In Feb I asked my IFA to help restructure my funds portfolio with an emphasis on de-risking and dividend income generation. Neither of us imagined that de-risking meant getting shot of US equities- but I certainly wanted to cut back on funds that rely on the Big 7 (tech giants plus crap car co.) So BNY Mellon US Equity Income seemed like a perfectly decent choice at the time.
Yeah, well over 3% of that fund is in United Health. 😡
Fortunately I decided things were dodgy enough to warrant feeding in the sale proceeds gradually, so I only purchased one tranche of that fund before putting a stop on all US based funds. Basically I’m not going back there until it’s clear they have Trump under control. Which may be a while.
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
I don't know why but there's something about this guy I really don't like. I agree with almost everything he says, but his voice and mannerisms reallllly grate on me!
Echo that. Saw him on Question Time last month. Came across as a bit of a know it all and Mr Billy big Bollox
Agree with some of what he says, but I think a lot of his past is a little exaggerated (best trader at CitiBank has been called out numerous times) and don't always agree with his point of view on everything. He's also extremely negative on just about everything!
Some of the more interesting podcasts/video's are with/debating with other people. Thought the one with Daniel Priestly (The diary of a CEO) was interesting and he struggled on some points.
Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
Been following Gary since he started posting early in Covid. He's bang on every time and the only voice out there calling out the root causes of our economic, social and political problems in the UK. Frankly the only voice we should be listening to on the economy right now.
I don't know him well but seems like a good explainer, something I appreciate.
But I think he underplays the security and political motivation for Trump/USA tariffs, which are a security/ideological response to China, rather than purely an economic strategy.
So, on the question of why e.g. Cambodia ends up with high tariffs, it is not an economic strategy but a way to persuade them away from China and towards the USA by forcing trade agreements that fulfil security goals.
Comments
Timestamps00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turkey-central-bank-hikes-key-131131610.html
Infaltion has dropped there from 75% last July to 38%.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/turkey_inflation_rate
"If you know the house is burning down this is exactly how you monetise it"
I will say he comes across a bit more frustrated in the last year or so (which is also when his platform has taken off). I think he originally started with a lotnof optimism that he could impact change, people in power would listen he would unite a left leaning movement based on sound economics etc. That that hasn't happened and the world has only got worse in the exact way he said it would is I think frustrating him.
His voice sounds like most people i know.
As for advice, stating the obvious, a good IFA, but also important to have your own views and goals. I don't always agree with him but @golfaddick seems to have his screwed on!
I've listened to him too, since when the FT got hold of him and did a big interview. The one thing I'm slightly reserved about is that sometimes he has been a bit fast and loose with numbers based facts. Gets a bit carried away by his rhetoric occasionally. But well worth an audience.
When the daily mail starts a smear campaign you know you've reffled some feathers.
"I started investing in the early 1980s, and neither my colleagues nor I have witnessed anything like the days before Trump’s partial climbdown on April 9. We have seen crises, crashes and inflation shocks. At times we have disagreed with US economic policy. Never have we gone so far as to call it “deranged”.
Maybe Trump will backtrack further. However, even if sensible compromises are found, the events of the past couple of weeks have surely permanently damaged the confidence companies will have trading with the US and the access American companies will have in the rest of the world.
So how should investors act? I and others have been warning for some time about the risks of having too much of your wealth in a global index tracker. A dozen years ago US equities made up just under half of the global index; recently that figure has risen to nearer 70 per cent. This seems out of kilter with the US share of world GDP.
US companies have often looked more profitable than their peers in other countries, but some of the higher margins may have come from their large domestic market and easy access to overseas markets. Perhaps those days have ended. Reducing exposure to the US and tilting more towards European and Asian equities seems sensible.
Some investors might still be tempted to buy fallen US tech stocks on the dip. I have no desire to bite into Apple. It seems extraordinary to me that this huge company had no substantial plan B for moving production outside China. Nervous investors might look at Nvidia and ask why it has not encouraged its Taiwanese chip manufacturer, TSMC, to build a plant in the US much sooner. TSMC is about to start production in Arizona, but this will only make five million chips and is delayed. The faster chips Nvidia needs may come from the next-generation fabrication plants, estimated to cost more than $50bn and maybe opening in 2029 — but Trump is trying to reduce his contribution.
Any rally in technology stocks could be challenged by the EU response to tariffs. The “bazooka” may include EU sanctions on US companies. Maybe the EU will also suggest these companies pay some tax. Too many risks? It makes sense to me not to abandon, but to tilt away from the US and superpower multinational tech companies. These will arguably be affected most by a more protectionist world. Instead, you might search out “regional champions” less impacted by tariffs. "
So BNY Mellon US Equity Income seemed like a perfectly decent choice at the time.
Yeah, well over 3% of that fund is in United Health. 😡
Fortunately I decided things were dodgy enough to warrant feeding in the sale proceeds gradually, so I only purchased one tranche of that fund before putting a stop on all US based funds. Basically I’m not going back there until it’s clear they have Trump under control. Which may be a while.
Some of the more interesting podcasts/video's are with/debating with other people. Thought the one with Daniel Priestly (The diary of a CEO) was interesting and he struggled on some points.
I don't know him well but seems like a good explainer, something I appreciate.
But I think he underplays the security and political motivation for Trump/USA tariffs, which are a security/ideological response to China, rather than purely an economic strategy.
So, on the question of why e.g. Cambodia ends up with high tariffs, it is not an economic strategy but a way to persuade them away from China and towards the USA by forcing trade agreements that fulfil security goals.