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Savings and Investments thread
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That’s the spirit. Is this the general position of the IFA sector? “We don’t give advice on US markets because we are too terrified of Trump”?golfaddick said:
Sorry, not whilst Trump is in charge. That guy is like a loose cannon & 1 tweet could send the markets spiralling.PragueAddick said:The S&P 500 is still significantly overpriced
A very good article (paywalled unfortunately), designed to spark conversation rather than persuade. Among other things the author looks at a Goldman Sachs "sensitivity matrix" which forecasts the S&P 500 to end this year at 4,550. The author concludes by fearing that "the S&P 500 will end the year not with a 5 handle, let alone a 6 — but with a 4."
So I wonder, since we all became big US market-watchers this year, how about a second competition, forecast the S&P 500 end year figure?
Anyone up for it?Deary me. I can hear the industry icon Margaret Thatcher turning in her grave and muttering “ They’re all frit”.
Only joking, mate. Nobody else fancy it?1 -
4,500 would be catastrophic.PragueAddick said:The S&P 500 is still significantly overpriced
A very good article (paywalled unfortunately), designed to spark conversation rather than persuade. Among other things the author looks at a Goldman Sachs "sensitivity matrix" which forecasts the S&P 500 to end this year at 4,550. The author concludes by fearing that "the S&P 500 will end the year not with a 5 handle, let alone a 6 — but with a 4."
So I wonder, since we all became big US market-watchers this year, how about a second competition, forecast the S&P 500 end year figure?
Anyone up for it?0 -
4500
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5,7500
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Having no idea where the dollar will be in the short, medium or long term is a red flag for me when it comes to investing in US stocks. I suppose Trump's circle could look to induce volatility rather than crash it's value which is an investment opportunity but the fear he's going to go all in on slashing interest rates, increased borrowing and firing up the printing presses which means there's too much downside risk for me.1
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Thank-you, what a great video.swords_alive said:Gary Stevenson's attempt to explain what the US was doing with tariffs last week, from his Youtube channel, 'Gary's economics' - The week Trump nearly crashed the world ecnomy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-1s9AykUyU
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Trump's Actions
04:58 Understanding Trade Deficits
09:41 Economic Inequality
10:51 Tariffs and Their Implications
12:33 Understanding Taxation Systems
20:53 Income and Spending Patterns Across Economic Classes
23:05 Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade and Poverty
25:11 Humanitarian and Economic Consequences of Tariffs
27:12 Tariffs and Strategic Implications
34:42 Economic Uncertainty
40:35 Market Manipulation and Trader Psychology
47:43 Global Implications
50:08 Comparison to Fyre Festival
51:59 Build a Better Future2 -
£100 for me on now £37,600, £225 for Ms R7L on Max, nothing for daughter of £25k ish.£75 for father in law on Max.0
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£25 for me, £33k.0
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£375 x max0
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£150 on max.0
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Nixies this month, not that I can complain in any way!0
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£400 on £92.5k joint0
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£25 on 22k
Better than nothing but still poor.0 -
First time I have had anything in months £275 on £45k1
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£175 each , both on max
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£300 for us on joint £100k0
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£25. Half holding0
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Moved from 50k down to 20k for first time in 2 years, and got my first ever zilch.0
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£125 for me on about 30k and £600 for my wife on the same.0
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£275 max0
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Blank on max this month! Booo!0
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£175 on max for me0
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Me £325, Mrs M £175 - both max.1
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£50 (1 prize) on £45k holding.0
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£250 on max. 3.6% for the year so far.0
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£50 for me on half max, £50 for jnr on quarter max and zilch for the wife on max
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With interest rates set to drop this year, and into next you might want to start to consider better places to put your money than PB's.
Yes they are safe. Yes they are tax free. But soon average returns will be less than 3% and next year maybe a tad over 2%.
As I say, there are other places that can give you tax free returns.1 -
Premium bonds are a very clever invention. As you say logic says they are generally a bad investment, or at least there are other, more likely, better options, but the ease of which you can buy/sell and the chance of 'winning big' makes them hugely popular.golfaddick said:With interest rates set to drop this year, and into next you might want to start to consider better places to put your money than PB's.
Yes they are safe. Yes they are tax free. But soon average returns will be less than 3% and next year maybe a tad over 2%.
As I say, there are other places that can give you tax free returns.
I suggested to my wife cashing hers in a year or two back - it was like I suggested a divorce! I can almost guarantee she'll take hers to her grave! As she puts it 'she likes to be in the game' .....2 -
Bit your hand off?
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Quick pension question, relating to the 25% tax free.
my wife will be 55 in a couple of years so can access her SIPP (she also has a couple of DB pensions, coming out at 60 & 67 currently but park that for now).
let’s say at that point it’s £200k, she can draw £50k tax free leaving £150k invested.
lets fast forward 5 years after that and say her pot is now £200k again, can she take a further £12.5k tax free (ie 25% of the £50k growth?).
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