Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.
It's simple really...
lordromford
Posts: 7,973
So, how is it all going to unfold?
Here are the circumstances:
Currently:
POSITION NAME GF GA GD PTS
2nd Leeds 75 43 +32 83
3rd Millwall 73 42 +31 82
4th Swindon 71 54 +17 82
5th Charlton 69 48 +21 81
6th Huddersfield 81 54 +27 80
Remaining fixtures:
LEEDS v Bristol Rovers
MILLWALL v SWINDON
Oldham v CHARLTON
Exeter v HUDDERSFIELD
Now it's all up for grabs but most of the teams will be looking out for other results.
(NB There are some fairly unlikely scenarios here...)
For Charlton:
If Charlton lose - we're 5th or 6th and therefore at home in the first leg of the Playoffs.
If Charlton draw, we're at home in the first leg unless Huddersfield draw or lose PLUS Swindon lose (or Millwall lose with a 10 goal swing to Charlton. :-D)
If Charlton win, we're promoted if Leeds lose and Swindon draw with Millwall. Otherwise we're 3rd or 4th and therefore AWAY in the first leg as we must go above either Swindon or Millwall, plus Huddersfield can't catch us. (Also, we can afford a Leeds draw if we win by 11 goals [:-D])
For all the rest:
Leeds:
If they win, they're up.
If they draw, they are up if Millwall and Swindon draw (and Charlton fail to win by at least 11 goals.) Otherwise, they are 3rd or 4th and have an away leg first.
If they lose, they only go up if Charlton and Huddersfield fail to win, Millwall draw with Swindon and Leeds' loss is by only one goal AND Millwall score no more than one goal more than them on Saturday. Otherwise they are 3rd or 4th unless Charlton and Huddersfield both win and Millwall or Swindon do not draw (or they do draw and Millwall score 2 more than Leeds on Saturday) in which case they are 5th.
Millwall:
If they Win, they go up if Leeds draw or lose, otherwise 3rd place.
If they draw, they go up if a) Leeds lose by 2 or more OR b) Leeds lose and Millwall score two goals more than Leeds (eg Millwall draw 3-3 and Leeds lose 1-2) PLUS Charlton fail to win AND Huddersfield fail to win by 4 goals or more.
If they lose, they are 4th unless Charlton and/or Huddersfield win in which case they are 5th or 6th and therefore at home in the first leg.
Swindon:
If they win, they are up if Leeds fail to win, otherwise they are 3rd.
If they draw, they are 4th if Charlton and Huddersfield fail to win, otherwise they are 5th or 6th.
If they lose, they only get 4th if Huddersfield fail to win and Charlton lose.
Huddersfield:
If they win, they only go up automatically if they win by 4 or more goals, Leeds lose and everyone else fails to win. (Millwall in theory could still foil Huddersfield here by drawing and scoring 8 more goals than Huddersfield on Saturday). Otherwise they are 5th or 6th unless a) Leeds lose with a 5 goal swing towards Huddersfield. Or
b) Charlton fail to win. Or
c) Millwall and Swindo draw and Huddersfield win by 4 or more.
If they draw or lose,
They can't reach higher than 5th
See. Simple.
Here are the circumstances:
Currently:
POSITION NAME GF GA GD PTS
2nd Leeds 75 43 +32 83
3rd Millwall 73 42 +31 82
4th Swindon 71 54 +17 82
5th Charlton 69 48 +21 81
6th Huddersfield 81 54 +27 80
Remaining fixtures:
LEEDS v Bristol Rovers
MILLWALL v SWINDON
Oldham v CHARLTON
Exeter v HUDDERSFIELD
Now it's all up for grabs but most of the teams will be looking out for other results.
(NB There are some fairly unlikely scenarios here...)
For Charlton:
If Charlton lose - we're 5th or 6th and therefore at home in the first leg of the Playoffs.
If Charlton draw, we're at home in the first leg unless Huddersfield draw or lose PLUS Swindon lose (or Millwall lose with a 10 goal swing to Charlton. :-D)
If Charlton win, we're promoted if Leeds lose and Swindon draw with Millwall. Otherwise we're 3rd or 4th and therefore AWAY in the first leg as we must go above either Swindon or Millwall, plus Huddersfield can't catch us. (Also, we can afford a Leeds draw if we win by 11 goals [:-D])
For all the rest:
Leeds:
If they win, they're up.
If they draw, they are up if Millwall and Swindon draw (and Charlton fail to win by at least 11 goals.) Otherwise, they are 3rd or 4th and have an away leg first.
If they lose, they only go up if Charlton and Huddersfield fail to win, Millwall draw with Swindon and Leeds' loss is by only one goal AND Millwall score no more than one goal more than them on Saturday. Otherwise they are 3rd or 4th unless Charlton and Huddersfield both win and Millwall or Swindon do not draw (or they do draw and Millwall score 2 more than Leeds on Saturday) in which case they are 5th.
Millwall:
If they Win, they go up if Leeds draw or lose, otherwise 3rd place.
If they draw, they go up if a) Leeds lose by 2 or more OR b) Leeds lose and Millwall score two goals more than Leeds (eg Millwall draw 3-3 and Leeds lose 1-2) PLUS Charlton fail to win AND Huddersfield fail to win by 4 goals or more.
If they lose, they are 4th unless Charlton and/or Huddersfield win in which case they are 5th or 6th and therefore at home in the first leg.
Swindon:
If they win, they are up if Leeds fail to win, otherwise they are 3rd.
If they draw, they are 4th if Charlton and Huddersfield fail to win, otherwise they are 5th or 6th.
If they lose, they only get 4th if Huddersfield fail to win and Charlton lose.
Huddersfield:
If they win, they only go up automatically if they win by 4 or more goals, Leeds lose and everyone else fails to win. (Millwall in theory could still foil Huddersfield here by drawing and scoring 8 more goals than Huddersfield on Saturday). Otherwise they are 5th or 6th unless a) Leeds lose with a 5 goal swing towards Huddersfield. Or
b) Charlton fail to win. Or
c) Millwall and Swindo draw and Huddersfield win by 4 or more.
If they draw or lose,
They can't reach higher than 5th
See. Simple.
0
Comments
-
When you put it like that it does seem rather easy...0
-
Yeah, only took a couple of hours...0
-
How about considering the most likely scenario?
That's Leeds and Millwall to win.
Now, if we win ... we finish 4th.
If we draw, we finish 4th (or 5th if Huddersfield win).
If we lose, we finish 6th (or 5th if Huddersfield lose).
Much more simple.0 -
So what your saying is it's better for us all round if we win.
Who'd have thought it?
;-)0 -
How about considering the least likely scenario?
All the teams in the premiership and championship get
relegated for financial irregularities and Charlton get a champions league spot.
We take our chance with aplomb and bring home the European Cup or whatever it's called in a blaze if glory.
I grant you, Huddersfield getting automatic promotion is unlikely, but at least it's believable and a possibility worth considering.0 -
lol at Marco. :-)0
-
[quote][cite]Posted By: lordromford[/cite]How about considering the least likely scenario?[/quote]
Because it probably won't happen.0 -
Or it might.
Cheer up mate.0 -
Leeds will win
Charlton will win
Millwall and Swindon will draw
Huddersfield will win
We finish 3rd
Swindon in the play offs
I cant predict any further.0 -
Don't think a Millwall win can be considered the most likely scenario. They are average side enjoying a poor run. Expect Hudds will turn them over in the play-offs if they get them. We would beat Swindon over two legs and face the Terriers at Wembley0
-
Sponsored links:
-
Huddersfield to lose
leeds, swindon and millwall all draw
Charlton win,0 -
I need a drink.0
-
[cite]Posted By: kinveachyaddick[/cite]Don't think a Millwall win can be considered the most likely scenario. They are average side enjoying a poor run. Expect Hudds will turn them over in the play-offs if they get them. We would beat Swindon over two legs and face the Terriers at Wembley
As much as I hate them, Millwall are not an average side. We're kidding ourselves if we think they are anything other than a good League 1 side. End of the day we only get 1 point off them (and they had 10 men for over half of 1 game), plus they beat Leeds twice and Norwich at home.........0 -
[quote][cite]Posted By: kinveachyaddick[/cite]Don't think a Millwall win can be considered the most likely scenario[/quote]
The bookies would disagree with you. 10/11 Home win 12/5 draw 9/4 away win.
Still, what do they know?0 -
Nothing is simple or altogether predictable in this division after taking Norwich out of the equation.
Second place team in the Premier or Championship would be odds-on to finish the job in the last game, but it wouldn't be a major surprise if Leeds failed to win.
Millwall and Swindon could go either way, and God knows what we'll do.0 -
Crikey, I think ive just invented the first grain of bionic rice......0
-
Thanks Lord Romford, the Charlton bit is good.
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.0 -
Bit of luck and it'll end up with us on 84 pts and Leeds, Millwall, Huddersfield and Swindon all on 83 pts.0
-
How many honestly still think we can finish 2nd
I think you are crazy rose tinted if you do so Oggy not allowed to answer0 -
We can finish second.
Its unlikely that we will. But we can.0 -
Sponsored links:
-
[quote][cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite]Thanks Lord Romford, the Charlton bit is good.
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.[/quote]
Why not? William Hill will give you 7/1 on a Bristol Rovers win.0 -
Pretty simple we need to win to get a second leg at the Valley.0
-
[cite]Posted By: WSS[/cite]We can finish second.
Its unlikely that we will. But we can.
i will re phrase it WSS does anyone think we will finish 2nd
me for 1 not a cat in hells chance0 -
Swindon can win as long as we win by 2 goals more than they do.0
-
I don't care what the odds are. I'll be there chearing our boys on for a win and hoping results go our way. A win could mean automatic promotion and at worst 2nd leg at the Valley. COYR!0
-
No.[cite]Posted By: ross[/cite]Swindon can win as long as we win by 2 goals more than they do.0 -
I don't rely on Mr Hill myself but I checked with him anyway and as it happens he thinks that your scenario probably won't happen - his odds are 29/21 against it.[cite]Posted By: Dave Rudd[/cite]
Why not? William Hill will give you 7/1 on a Bristol Rovers win.[cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite]Thanks Lord Romford, the Charlton bit is good.
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.0 -
[quote][cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite][quote][cite]Posted By: Dave Rudd[/cite][quote][cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite]Thanks Lord Romford, the Charlton bit is good.
As to the suggestion of only about considering the scenario that Leeds and Millwall win ... well that'd be a pointless restriction because it probably won't happen.[/quote]Why not? William Hill will give you 7/1 on a Bristol Rovers win.[/quote]I don't rely on Mr Hill myself but I checked with him anyway and as it happens he thinks that your scenario probably won't happen - his odds are 29/21 against it.[/quote]
That's because there are eight other combinations of possible outcomes. Based on the odds given, no other combination is more likely than Leeds and Millwall to win. Your odds of 29/21 simply means that it is (slightly) more likely that any one of the other eight will happen rather than the two home wins. But the two home wins remain the most likely scenario.
Let's live in hope anyway. This is football, not maths.0 -
[cite]Posted By: ross[/cite]Swindon can win as long as we win by 2 goals more than they do.
What?! Not only do we have a better goal difference than them anyway meaning your '2 goals more' theory is wrong, but they also have a point more than us, so unless a win at Oldham gets us 4 points you are well off mate.
Anyway i fully expect Leeds to win but can see the Millwall game petering out to a draw once they know Leeds are home and dry, so a win for us at Oldham will see us finish 3rd. Think Huddersfield will have it tough going at Exeter who are fairly good at home and need a win to stay up. My prediction:
2 - Leeds
3 - Us
4 - Millwall
5 - Swindon
6 - Huddersfield0 -
Good we're agreed then .... of the 9 potential outcomes, WW is most likely combination but probably won't happen!0
