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Betting on Charlton to finish in the top six
Numbers
Posts: 835
Corals are laying 13/8 Charlton to finish in the top six
This has to be wrong/very generous
Odds of 13/8 expressed as a % is 38%
We are priced at around 20/1 on betfair to win the league 5%
Now if we are 5% to win it then surely to come 2nd 3rd 4th etc the % should get increasingly higher( it being easier/more likelier to come 2nd than 1st and 3rd than 2nd etc) but how much higher?
Lets say to win only 4%
1st 4% 2nd 6% 3rd 9% 4th 13% 5th 18% 6th 23% total 73% expressed in odds this is approx. 4/11 compared to 13/8 a big difference, if you can afford a long term bet at a short price this has got to be value worth taking.
This has to be wrong/very generous
Odds of 13/8 expressed as a % is 38%
We are priced at around 20/1 on betfair to win the league 5%
Now if we are 5% to win it then surely to come 2nd 3rd 4th etc the % should get increasingly higher( it being easier/more likelier to come 2nd than 1st and 3rd than 2nd etc) but how much higher?
Lets say to win only 4%
1st 4% 2nd 6% 3rd 9% 4th 13% 5th 18% 6th 23% total 73% expressed in odds this is approx. 4/11 compared to 13/8 a big difference, if you can afford a long term bet at a short price this has got to be value worth taking.
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Comments
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christ you've got a relevant username!
I'm ok with betting and i'm studying accounts at the moment but that's just blown me out the water!0 -
[cite]Posted By: Numbers[/cite]Corals are laying 13/8 Charlton to finish in the top six
This has to be wrong/very generous
Odds of 13/8 expressed as a % is 38%
We are priced at around 20/1 on betfair to win the league 5%
Now if we are 5% to win it then surely to come 2nd 3rd 4th etc the % should get increasingly higher( it being easier/more likelier to come 2nd than 1st and 3rd than 2nd etc) but how much higher?
Lets say to win only 4%
1st 4% 2nd 6% 3rd 9% 4th 13% 5th 18% 6th 23% total 73% expressed in odds this is approx. 4/11 compared to 13/8 a big difference, if you can afford a long term bet at a short price this has got to be value worth taking.
That's extremely good odds... but youve got yourself a bit confused with the percentages mate. No way are we only 27% likely to finish outside the top 60 -
I am not confused i explained my thinking it may not be exact but i certainly think we should be odds on what do you think are the true odds/probability?0
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I agree we are overpriced in this market.
I'd say that anything above even money represents good value.0 -
[cite]Posted By: Numbers[/cite]I am not confused i explained my thinking it may not be exact but i certainly think we should be odds on what do you think are the true odds/probability?
I'd say evens would be a fair price?0 -
SO you reckon we are 41% likely to finish 5th or 6th, but only 27% likely to finish 7th or 8th or 9th or 10th or 11th or .... 24th ?0
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You are confused! Why stop at 6th, please continue the sequence for one more place and give us your odds for 7th.[cite]Posted By: Numbers[/cite]I am not confused i explained my thinking it may not be exact but i certainly think we should be odds on what do you think are the true odds/probability?0 -
You can arue with his exact numbers but we must at least somewhere in the middle of top 12 teams. On that basis anything above evens is reasonable value and 13/8 is very good. What was it 3 weeks ago?0
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Good point, but there will be a turning point where the % will get lower and increasingly lower.So after a rethink i reckon that point should be 5th at say 15% then 6th 13% and so on. This revises my figures to 60% top 6 or 4/6, this is only my opinion based on the numbers I actually think we will finish 2nd or 3rd. I just found it interesting to look at it this way as i could not see where Coral could come up with 13/8. Sheff wed are 4/6 Peterboro are 8/13, Isuppose thats their opinion.[cite]Posted By: Salad[/cite]
You are confused! Why stop at 6th, please continue the sequence for one more place and give us your odds for 7th.[cite]Posted By: Numbers[/cite]I am not confused i explained my thinking it may not be exact but i certainly think we should be odds on what do you think are the true odds/probability?0 -
Very tasty double in that of £100 on Charlton to finish top 6 and Chelsea to win the league returns £402.50. Food for thought.0
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Very generous odds - but I just know if I put money on it it will be a jinx so I am not going to break my golden rule and never bet on Charlton0
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If 20/1 to win as a percentage is 5% then surely 13/8 for top 6 as a percentage is 61.53% ?????????0
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The trouble is that you are not really much more likely to finish in 6th than 5th etc. Your figures might make some sense cumulatively but they on the original they were nonsensical. There is not a 23% chance that we will finish precisely in 6th place. 15% for 5th is only a bit less ludicrous.0
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[cite]Posted By: MrOneLung[/cite]If 20/1 to win as a percentage is 5% then surely 13/8 for top 6 as a percentage is 61.53% ?????????
No, it is 38%. You divide the denominator (8) by the sum of the denomnator and the numerator (8+13=21) and multiply by 100. So 8/23 x100 - 38.09%.
20/1 is actually 4.76% not 5%.0 -
[cite]Posted By: Numbers[/cite] do you think are the true odds/probability?
Betting odds are not probability odds.
Betting odds are set to make a profit for bookmakers.0
