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What sort of points total to stay up this season?
cabbles
Posts: 15,277
despite our great start, my head is still very much about making sure we achieve safety this season, and I was wondering what people think the required total to stay up may be?
This league gets tighter and more competitive every year, a lot of teams still had an outside hope of 6th last year, and I recall until the last 2 games or so, a lot of teams also looking over their shoulder
Sheff Wed’s situation leaves them 17 pts adrift which means it’s only 2 more teams to fill those spaces barring a footballing miracle for them, but are we going to get one of those seasons where you could see 22nd go down on 53 pts or something
I don’t think it’s in any way similar to the last time we were in this division, but it was about now that things started to nosedive for us, and we just didn’t have enough in the tank. Completely different circumstances this time, but my thinking is 55pts is the aim, just to be certain
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I think Wednesday's position is probably irrelevant. If we're still concerned about this, it's only a matter of finishing above 22nd. I look at this and I'm as carefree as Tigger on a sunny day.
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There are a lot of average teams this season. They’re all taking points off each other which could lead to a low number of points needed. Does also mean that if it clicks for one of the underperforming sides they can race away from danger0
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Whilst 3rd bottom on 9 seems unusually low for this point in the season I think both Norwich and Sheffield Utd will improve significantly. That may mean a change of manager for Norwich and a January window for Sheffield Utd. So for me I look at the points totals of 4th bottom being more in line with par. We should be aiming for 50 points for safety, although I would suspect it will be a point or two lower.8
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Athletico Charlton said:Whilst 3rd bottom on 9 seems unusually low for this point in the season I think both Norwich and Sheffield Utd will improve significantly. That may mean a change of manager for Norwich and a January window for Sheffield Utd. So for me I look at the points totals of 4th bottom being more in line with par. We should be aiming for 50 points for safety, although I would suspect it will be a point or two lower.
Agree with that - 50 points will almost certainly be enough. If that's a correct assumption then we need 27 points from 32 games and I just cannot see us not achieving that.4 -
Last 5 seasons, below points would have been enough to survive in the Championship (Didnt want to get in to GD for every season, but Hull did stay up last season on 49 points).
24/25: 50 points
23/24: 51 points
22/23: 45 points
21/22: 38 points
20/21: 44 points1 -
50-pts is the mental target in my head.
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Reckon 45 will be enough. I'm not remotely worried about it though.
Last time, we were an absolute car crash of a football club by the time the end of the season rolled round.2 -
44 or 45 will be more than enough .1
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Based on 21/22 we could be 5 wins from safety already.1
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EFL deductions are distorting some of those seasons though.stoneroses19 said:Last 5 seasons, below points would have been enough to survive in the Championship (Didnt want to get in to GD for every season, but Hull did stay up last season on 49 points).
24/25: 50 points
23/24: 51 points
22/23: 45 points
21/22: 38 points
20/21: 44 points
In 22/23 Reading in 22nd had been deducted 6 points. Adding them back would have relegated Cardiff with 49, making the magic number 50.
In 21/22, Reading in 21st were deducted 6 points, while Derby in 23rd were deducted 21 points! Adding these back, Reading would have been relegated on GD with 47 points, making the magic number 48.
So in reality, the points total needed for survival in the last 5 seasons has been 50, 51, 50, 48, 44, so 50 does feel like a realistic survival total, but only just.9 -
Sorry looking upwards not over our shoulder and nothing is indicating we should.3
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50-55 points, albeit I think it will be lower in reality0
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People saying even league means low points , I’m thinking the opposite it could be high at the bottom end (oooooerrrrr) cos everyone’s getting points off each other , the top end will be low as well …
I have no idea of the maths but come the end of the season going in to the last game and Everyone is on 60 points top to bottom …
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This takes me back to the magic 40 points when we were in division 1 with curbs. Happy days!2
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I reckon seven more wins and six draws should do it.
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I think 50 should see us safe but the way things are shaping may be a few less. Norwich and Shef Unt seem to intent on playing in div 1 next year with Wednesday.0
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More than 50 and we should be fine, my dream total is 60 and just relax at the sharp end.0
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With the starts a fair few have had so far this season I would suggest 46 max should be necessary. Bar an injury crisis of cataclysmic proportions over the course of the season we should be absolutely fine and think we will have this number of points in the bag by end of Jan to mid-Feb. Over the course of the season with the overall squad budget and quality we have against most others in the league I think we may come up short on a serious long-term play off push but anything can happen and would be over the moon with a mid table finish.0
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Based on current performances, i am looking for 75 points and a playoff spot. Why not ??!!1
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I accept it was many years back now but Millwall were relegated from the Championship with 54 points.
Hence I always say 55 points or 50 plus.
Other than perhaps Coventry (and will they sustain it?) it's an even division with everyone beating everyone else so I don't see 3 teams being markedly adrift of the rest hence a higher points score will be required in my opinion.0 -
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ON THIS DAY in last few years the bottom 3 had below points totals
2024
15
10
9
2023
10
9
6
2022 (think season started early as played 19/20 games by then)
20
20
15
2021
12
11
6
2020(only 10 games played by now)
7
6
5 - Sheff wed has 6 point deduction
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Usually I'd say 48-50 but given the Sheffield Wednesday situation (you finish below them this season you deserve a double relegation tbh) I think the cut off will be more like 44
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Not even thinking about relegation now. Just a point a game from now on gets us to 55 - that's the equivalent of 8 wins, 8 draws and 16 defeats - when we are currently on target to get 76 points.
I'm not suggesting we are going to reach 76 points but, for us to go down and given the draws we will pick up along the way, we would probably have to win no more than we have in the opening 14 games (6 wins) when we still have 32 matches to go. Our record of clean sheets and goals conceded is too good even with injuries.
To put this all in perspective, we are currently 20/1 to be relegated. Those pessimistic enough to feel that is too big could make themselves very rich. Or, more likely, make the bookies even wealthier.
I look forward to the pessimists bookmarking this and reminding me of it come May. Just to point out, a run of four or five defeats on the bounce does not mean we will be relegated.2 -
Would have done because of the mid-season break for the World CupMrOneLung said:ON THIS DAY in last few years the bottom 3 had below points totals
2024
15
10
9
2023
10
9
6
2022 (think season started early as played 19/20 games by then)
20
20
15
2021
12
11
6
2020(only 10 games played by now)
7
6
5 - Sheff wed has 6 point deduction0 -
Look upwards - glass half full
1/3 way through in a play off berth
of course long way to go but don’t think we should be glass half empty, sure we will have a sticky patch but have faith in our leader to get us mid table and as always May is being kept free just in case !1
