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It evens itself out over the course of the season...
Desmond Oulu
Posts: 63
... or so the saying goes. The last three games have had some abysmal decisions go against us. If we discount Stoke and just look at the last two matches, with competent officials we'd be two points clear at the top of the league. If we discount the TC offside/onside against QPR as it was in the first half and the game could've panned out differently, we are left with today. With the timing of the Leaburn penalty shout you'd think that would have decided it. That would've put us on the same points as top of the league.
Swings, roundabouts, evens itself out and all that bollocks aside, when was the last time we had a bad decision gift us any points? I'm struggling to think of one.
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Think it’s a saying to try and make ourselves feel better,IMO it doesn’t even itself out in the slightest.8
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Unless you watch 90 mins of all the other Championship games week in & week out you can't say if we've been on the wrong end of decisions more than anyone else. Other teams could probably say the same.
And if we had been given a penalty today who's to say we would have scored it.3 -
Probably not you?golfaddick said:Unless you watch 90 mins of all the other Championship games week in & week out you can't say if we've been on the wrong end of decisions more than anyone else. Other teams could probably say the same.
And if we had been given a penalty today who's to say we would have scored it.37 -
I’d still accept a few dodgy decisions over VAR.24
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Other than maybe the TC goal I’m not sure VAR changes any of the recent decisions and that would just lead to a lesser experience in stadium and more frustrationSuedeAdidas said:I’d still accept a few dodgy decisions over VAR.3 -
I'm specifically talking about our games. That's why I asked when we last had an incorrect decision go in OUR favour...a points changing decision.golfaddick said:Unless you watch 90 mins of all the other Championship games week in & week out you can't say if we've been on the wrong end of decisions more than anyone else. Other teams could probably say the same.
And if we had been given a penalty today who's to say we would have scored it.0 -
Agreed, and I'm not advocating for VAR. I'm just curious about the last time we 'got away with one', as it does seem we are being royally shafted at the moment.fenaddick said:
Other than maybe the TC goal I’m not sure VAR changes any of the recent decisions and that would just lead to a lesser experience in stadium and more frustrationSuedeAdidas said:I’d still accept a few dodgy decisions over VAR.1 -
If it does even out we've got some good karma coming hopefully.1
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I disagree. VAR is just the tech. The lesser experience is caused by the bloated FAPL and now FIFA way of using it. As I’ve said before, in the Czech league and I think in other Euro leagues, they had a more lean approach where a single official monitors the stream and in the event of a dodgy decision, the Miles penalty would be an example, he tells the ref on radio to go look at the incident on a monitor at the side of the pitch. The ref is free to change his decision, and usually does but I also saw cases where he stuck to his original decision. Either way it took far less time than the ridiculous FAPL way. VAR is just the tech. Humans decide how to deploy it.fenaddick said:
Other than maybe the TC goal I’m not sure VAR changes any of the recent decisions and that would just lead to a lesser experience in stadium and more frustrationSuedeAdidas said:I’d still accept a few dodgy decisions over VAR.
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We get plenty but no one remembers the ones that go in our favour. Like Boro away last season Chambers should definitely have been sent off in the first half but no one mentions it because it went our wayDesmond Oulu said:
I'm specifically talking about our games. That's why I asked when we last had an incorrect decision go in OUR favour...a points changing decision.golfaddick said:Unless you watch 90 mins of all the other Championship games week in & week out you can't say if we've been on the wrong end of decisions more than anyone else. Other teams could probably say the same.
And if we had been given a penalty today who's to say we would have scored it.2 -
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It’s somewhat true in the sense that fans of any club will naturally focus on the decisions that go against them, while being more willing to overlook those that go in their favour.
I do think we’ve been unlucky with some decisions, but things like the offside or the ‘push’ on Leaburn (which, let’s be honest, he made a bit of a meal of) would probably be viewed very differently if they had gone against the opposition. We’d likely call them 50/50 decisions rather than the travesty we’re making them out to be.
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Wasn’t one of the goals in one of our heroic away victories last season down to the ball going over the opposition goal line, officials missed it, TC flicked back and I want to say Leaburn scored?
Surely someone will remember this and fill in the details.1 -
Correct me if I’m wrong but have we actually had a big decision go our way yet this season even when we beat Derby Preston and West Ham and drew at West Brom can’t remember thinking we got away with one there .2
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I didn’t really think Leaburn’s was a penalty, and I think if NJ truly thought it was he would have made a much bigger deal out of it.3
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Leaburns was never a pen3
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Ipswich.FreshHaddock said:Wasn’t one of the goals in one of our heroic away victories last season down to the ball going over the opposition goal line, officials missed it, TC flicked back and I want to say Leaburn scored?
Surely someone will remember this and fill in the details.
No conclusive evidence that the ball was over the line or that the lino was a Norwich fan or even from Norfolk.4 -
It doesn’t, why would it?0
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It's a footballing version of Newton's Third Law of Motion:se9addick said:It doesn’t, why would it?
For every favourable decision received by a team there is an equal and opposite shit decision received by another team i.e. Stoke favourable pen, Charlton harsh decision.
They don't, however, even out for each individual club as we know from a lifetime's evidence.0 -
Statistically, luck will even out for most clubs/people, but there will always be a small number of exceptions at either end of the scale (hence the classic 'bell curve').
Thus a small number of people have won the lottery twice. There are probably some people who have held premium bonds for decades without winning a bean.
With 'only' 46 matches, there will indeed be teams who have been luckier or unluckier than average - that's how random events (i.e.luck) work.
IF we assume that poor refereeing is actually a random event....it may not be (if influenced by crowds, managers, etc)
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The spanners.SuedeAdidas said:I’d still accept a few dodgy decisions over .1 -
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Blimey, how many years in and people are still coming out with this "VAR is just the tech" guff.PragueAddick said:
I disagree. VAR is just the tech. The lesser experience is caused by the bloated FAPL and now FIFA way of using it. As I’ve said before, in the Czech league and I think in other Euro leagues, they had a more lean approach where a single official monitors the stream and in the event of a dodgy decision, the Miles penalty would be an example, he tells the ref on radio to go look at the incident on a monitor at the side of the pitch. The ref is free to change his decision, and usually does but I also saw cases where he stuck to his original decision. Either way it took far less time than the ridiculous FAPL way. VAR is just the tech. Humans decide how to deploy it.fenaddick said:
Other than maybe the TC goal I’m not sure VAR changes any of the recent decisions and that would just lead to a lesser experience in stadium and more frustrationSuedeAdidas said:I’d still accept a few dodgy decisions over VAR.
It's not. The "R" in VAR gives it away - it stands for "referee". It's a person, albeit a person who uses video footage.
So the problem we have with VAR is that we are now not just relying on one person to make the right decisions, it now gets referred up to a second person who - as the evidence has shown - can also make bizarre and/or incorrect decisions. All in the name of progress.
But my point is, VAR is not "just the tech".6 -
Anyway, in reference to the original post, I reckon if you asked a million different football fans of various clubs they would virtually ALL say their club gets the rough end of refereeing decisions. Whether that be this season, last season, or the past 10/20/30 years combined.
The issue is that we are all understandably biased towards our clubs. Some more than others. So that can mean we all have our "Charlton Blinkers" on when it comes to individual incidents, but also it means we tend to very quickly forget when we "got away with one" or something goes our way. We don't always consciously do it, but the emotion being "wronged" builds and leaves in people is usually stronger and longer lasting than that "Phew" moment, when we look at each other and have a chuckle that the ref missed something which has gone in our favour.
We barely remember those moments when they go our way, whereas at the other end of the ground their fans are fuming.
It's the way it is , and probably will always be when subjective decisions are involved.0 -
How on earth do you statistically analyse luck?redlanered said:Statistically, luck will even out for most clubs/people, but there will always be a small number of exceptions at either end of the scale (hence the classic 'bell curve').
Thus a small number of people have won the lottery twice. There are probably some people who have held premium bonds for decades without winning a bean.
With 'only' 46 matches, there will indeed be teams who have been luckier or unluckier than average - that's how random events (i.e.luck) work.
IF we assume that poor refereeing is actually a random event....it may not be (if influenced by crowds, managers, etc)
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Two ludicrous VAR decisions in the Manc derby today. TC would have an extra goal and us two more points if those officials were at the Valley yesterday.
Correction, we'd have had those bonuses had the ref known the laws of the game.
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There are whole branches of Philosophy and Epistemology on this.se9addick said:
How on earth do you statistically analyse luck?redlanered said:Statistically, luck will even out for most clubs/people, but there will always be a small number of exceptions at either end of the scale (hence the classic 'bell curve').
Thus a small number of people have won the lottery twice. There are probably some people who have held premium bonds for decades without winning a bean.
With 'only' 46 matches, there will indeed be teams who have been luckier or unluckier than average - that's how random events (i.e.luck) work.
IF we assume that poor refereeing is actually a random event....it may not be (if influenced by crowds, managers, etc)
I know this site likes a bit of Maths but, to be honest, some of the relevant discussions in this area are pretty dry and I'm not sure that our 'demograph' would either enjoy or indeed tolerate those machinations.
Suffice it to say that we live in a statistical world. That's why accidents happen and certain cause-and-effect relationships can give different outcomes on different occasions.
Luck, of course, is both relational (it results in a 'good' or 'bad' outcome) or it is non-relational (eg the planet Pluto was discovered by luck). Naturally the categorisation of 'good' and 'bad' can be quite subjective (and time-dependent) so that may not be a feature of the luck itself.
With regard to football ... or more exactly ... points of detail and 'moments' in the game, I'm inclined to think that they are not entirely independent. For example, who knows if the penalty shout for the push on Leaburn might have resulted in an entirely different final 20 minutes and we end up losing 1-2.1 -
.se9addick said:
Like they said, if you assume luck to be random, it’s just an analysis of probability. Pretty standard statistical analysis.
How on earth do you statistically analyse luck?redlanered said:Statistically, luck will even out for most clubs/people, but there will always be a small number of exceptions at either end of the scale (hence the classic 'bell curve').
Thus a small number of people have won the lottery twice. There are probably some people who have held premium bonds for decades without winning a bean.
With 'only' 46 matches, there will indeed be teams who have been luckier or unluckier than average - that's how random events (i.e.luck) work.
IF we assume that poor refereeing is actually a random event....it may not be (if influenced by crowds, managers, etc)2 -
Controversial I know but I don't think Rev Jones does us any favours in his dealings with referees imo0
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If they didn't antagonise him repeatedly by making dumb decisions, he wouldn't antagonise them by volleying their cat.Starinnaddick said:Controversial I know but I don't think Rev Jones does us any favours in his dealings with referees imo5 -
Reflecting with a bit of hindsight on the refereeing the last 3 games, i think it's the context being set by the genuine disaster class from madley at Stoke that has made the following decisions look worse.
Obviously I want every ref to give every decision for us always, but hand on heart I don't honestly know that any of us can know whether the TC 'goal' was on or offside, and the leaburn 'pen' could've been given but i would be saying it was very soft if given against us.
Let's hope for some better luck later in the season but I'm not holding my breath - I certainly hope I never see madley darkening our door again - I think he somehow surpassed Trevor kettle in his ineptness !4 -
He doesn’t but at the same time they can’t be shocked when he has a go at them when watermelons have more brain cells.Starinnaddick said:Controversial I know but I don't think Rev Jones does us any favours in his dealings with referees imoThe Leaburn pen I can forgive because there is a reason why it could be argued it wouldn’t be given but that Stoke and QPR game you would have toddlers that wouldn’t have been any worse2
