Mr Jordan has said that he wants £40m for the club and that would be debt free and with the freehold. However if you look at the absolute minimum that would be needed to buy the club it works out as follows
Current Debts and Liabilities are between £15m and £20m. A lot of those are at very high rates of interest or are guaranteed by Mr Jordan (the bank overdraft). any buyer would need to pay these off or be in a position to meet the high interest or be prepared to guarantee them. So as an initial amount £15m to £20m would be needed.
If that was all then it might be possible to find someone or a consortium of people to do that and indeed to enable the Trust and ultimately the fans to have a say in the running of the club by being part of that consortium.
However there are 2 further cash calls on the club
The first is the stadium. The money for that would not need to be found upfront. The club has a 25 year lease. The problem is that the rental is £1.2m which looked a lot at the time and with falling gates and the current recession looks even more now. Additionally there is an unspecified capital sum due in the next couple of years which would have to be found
A 25 year lease is insufficent time for the tenant to want to spend out on improvements and the landlord certainly wont. The freehold purchase would seem to be something that any prudent buyer would want to arrange at the beginning. The lease does have an option for the tenant to purchase but as it was negotiated at the top of the market is likely to be way over what the land is worth now.
The landlord however is unlikely to agree a lower price all the time the Club are in ground and paying the rent as the yield on the rent is commercially extremely good. Additionally the Landlord has a mortgage secured on the ground for £12m so if he accepted less than that he would have to find the additional money to pay off the mortgage from his own pocket - which he probably could afford but equally probably doesn't want to.
So ideally a further £8m to £10m would be needed to buy the freehold depending on what could be negotiated and in the optimistic view that the Landlord might take a lower figure than he paid in order to accept cash now and to guarantee his money when a buyer might otherwise walk away.
The second and far more immediate concern however would be the money that would needed to be pumped into the club yearly to keep it going. At the moment (putting to one side player sales and purchases) the club is losing between £8m-£12m a year. Obviously that is unsustainable. A new owner would have to get to grips with that and there are some things that could be dealt with quickly
Savings on interest on all the debts as set out above would amount to around £1m pa. The rent is a further £1.2m. Therre are (not surprisingly) considerable directors expenses and things like the christmas party (it may seem petty but it cost upwards of £250k) could go. Better fundraising with a revitalised Golden Eagles could raise an additional significant sum - maybe £500k. Improved marketing may increase revenue although at presnt it is more likely simply to halt the slide in income. The majority of the current high earners are out of contract in the Summer which will improve the wage positin a lot. However the chances are that there will still be up to £5m a year to find one way or another.
And that is a very big committment to be met going forward. I do not want to say it couldn't be done because there may be ways that it could and there certainly could be provisions for different directors in a Company to make different amounts amounts available but that is something that would have to be looked at when and if any such possible consoritum was formed. Your suggestion of an initial amount and then further smaller amounts is certainly one that hs been used eleswhere
I can say that at present there is no consortium of fans, wealthy or otherwise who, having looked at the figures, are taking things forward. That may change and if it does and the Trust are involved then we will of course let all our members and indeed all fans know as soon as possible.
A couple of final points is that the other way of filling the funding gap is, of course, to sell players - especially those from the academy. This is an entirely reasonable way of plugging the gap and is what Mr Jordam is doing at present. While it is certainly a way of managing it would be very unwise to have to rely on that as a way of making up the money - there are no guarantees that sufficient players of enough worth will come through. But is may be that a provision could be made to count on at least some money coming from that each year. There would need to be a managing of fans expectations though as to see the clubs brightest prospects sold off would certainly be a bit disheartening unless the reasons werre clearly spelt out.
And the above scenario and investment levels leaves Palace hapily jogging along in the Championship. Any push for promotion and playoffs probably guided by an exceptional number of academy graduates or happening as a result of an amazing bit of man management and team work would be a welcome surprise rather than something fans would expect each year.
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In reality, they are in a similar position to ourselves. Both are owned by people looking to get out and reluctant to put in / lose any further money, both are not in a position where they are attractive to enough as a buyer.
We as a club own our own ground, they have a more secure at present league standing.
As you say, I along with most Palace fans agree that it is very unlikely that SJ would allow the club to go into administration. With regard to the sale of the club, if Jordan is able to dispose of the club, it is very unlikely that he will come away with any money in his pocket, and I would imagine if he manages to find someone who will give him the majority of the money he is owed through loans, then he will be very happy.
As AFKA said, for differing reasons neither of our clubs are a great attraction for potential buyers.
But as a potential purchaser, what would you rather buy?
The 1967 Aston Martin that needs a bit of work or the 1956 Beetle that is not only rusting away, but the owner is still paying the HP payments on which you would have to take on?
Jordan is comfortably wealthy but he doesn't have access to finance and I'd doubt his questionable businessman mates like Kelmsley would offer anymore 'help'.
A reasonable analogy, but I think I'd replace the Aston with a 2001 Golf, a good car with a good reputation, but sadly neglected by recent owners, and chasis in danger of erosion. The Beetle would be replaced by a 2000 Mondeo with high milage, needs some attention, but a steady runner.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/article2367182.ece
Also given the state of Selhurst and the need for new stands to be built sooner or later any new buyer would have to factor in several million quid to take the place into 21st Century. To use the car analogy it would be like buying a car for over the odds and then discovering it needs a new engine as well as a paint job.
I always considered Jordan's business plan was shit or bust - get Palace into the Premiership and either recoup his losses or more likely sell out ASAP before the reality of all the extra money needed to be spent comes home.
Sadly the finances of football outside the premiership are increasingly unviable. The best that teams that Palace and Charlton can hope for, outside of an investor with deep pockets, is to bring on a steady stream of talent from the youth/reserve teams, base the team around them and then sell them on at a hefty profit. Unfortunately the one player that might have made a difference to their finances was sold for a ridiculously low price. I know that Palace might get up to £5m for Bostock but if they do it'll be in several season's time, Palaces financial problems need solving a lot sooner.
The other factor is...how much money has Jordan lost on his house building venture in Spain? By all accounts most house builders in Spain are suffering, I can't see that he'd be any different. If he had the money why not buy the ground and then charge the club to rent it off him?