I am not a qualified accountant or anything similar but I thought I would have a dabble into the accounts.
The shares and bondholdings are all declared so there is nothing here thats not in the public domain.
I had always thought that Richard Murrays position on the Board was dominant but looking at the position after the Bond Investment and recent loans that is not quite so now. I have noted that the Bonds can be converted to shares at any time.
I cant believe that there is a Consortium out there that is going to pay the full price of the Bonds at 30p and Shares at 50p. That equates to about £47m. And if it is used to fully buy out existing Directors/Shareholders provides no new money for the club.
If we assume a share price of 30p which was that used as the allocation of the bond price then that equates to £33m. A table of the combined holding on this value is shown below. (I paid 38p a share about a year ago)
I cant believe that any Consortium would pay that either for a League 1 club with negative income.
So the fundamental question is at what price will the Directors sell and to what extent will that money be split between buying out the existing shareholders and making money available to the club.
If we say its £20m with £10m being used to buy out the existing Directors that equates to about 9p a share. A significant write down for those that have invested.
As I said I am not qualified and my sums may be wrong but I can imagine some interesting discussions going on. And I for one am not going to get too excited even if it does go through.
Director murray £8,341,387 24.7645%
Director chappell £6,656,820 19.7632%
Others Unknown £4,177,151 12.4014%
Director whitehand £3,803,993 11.2935%
Director hatter £3,739,414 11.1018%
Director sumners £2,007,938 5.9613%
Director simons £1,071,934 3.1824%
Director franklin £766,513 2.2757%
Director stevens £679,421 2.0171%
Investor ward £674,578 2.0027%
Investor white £633,158 1.8798%
Investor hughes £625,177 1.8561%
Director murr/bol £504,222 1.4970%
Director grade £1,181 0.0035%
Total £33,682,887 100.0000%
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Comments
No. But anybody investing is going to want value for money and this sort of analysis will be taking place.
The problem is that its not just the shares. The Directors invested £14m in bonds.
If they sell for £20m and the shares and bonds are valued at the same price (I am not sure) but that equates to about 18p per share. They invested Bonds at 30p. So that is about 40% loss in under 2 years on the Bonds AND no new money.
The bottom line is that the frittering away of the new money by Dowie/Pardew and the relegation to League 1 makes this club virtually worthless given that it will have expenditure which outstrips income next year.
To me the interesting point is what balance will be struck between asset write down and genuine new investment in the club for the future.
Seriously, I think you have identified why the deal is hanging in the balance, Imiss. At least one, and possbily several, directors/investors not happy about selling at that write down. As you say, some ''interesting discussions'' must be going on.
Fingers and everything else crossed that we will have a new, more vigorous and visionary board in place with fresh cash and commitment this summer.
The problem to me is the Bond value. £14m invested less than 2 years ago. Even with a Stock Market decline of the proportion we have seen recently (FTSE up 137 pts today by the way) it must be difficult to kiss goodbye to most of that.
I reckon you are right in terms of share price. A 5p price on shares and bonds equates to about £6m. I am sure Mr Varney can come up with that plus another £10m for the club. But I must admit if I was a director I would be loathe to sell at that price.
Although we did own the freehold to the training ground and club, the training ground was always going to be limited in its capital raising potential in the current climate. i.e. what developer is going to buy land surrounded by other training grounds some derelict that Greenwich council are unlikely to release as building plots for housing etc. And similarly is Floyd Road that an attractive proposal for residential resale..... Does part of the ground have ( heights) have a restricted use for toxic materials dumping like the Greenwich peninsula did.! (Unsure about the last bit but remember 50 years ago that land was a sort of landfill site! and could well affect residential occupation.)
The way that 'investors' look at a club is not always based on the footballing traditions of the club, or even football, assets and liability is there formula.
Is Richard Branson a Charlton fan!, .......let's hope so!
I thought he has always stated that he would not make a financial investment in the club!.... or was that just a comment at the time.......
He has stepped down as Chairman of ITV this week so has the time and certainly the money!, and even better has the 'connections to put together a consortium'
Not sure why he does not step forward! as you say.......
Maybe part of the rumoured consortium now he has stepped down from ITV? Probably not, but who knows.
David Sumners recently told the Mailing list that Michael Grade is there for the advice he brings. Although I have had some dealings with him starting with when he helped out the Valley Party, I never felt I could ask him why he didn't invest more. Its funny that when he stepped down from ITV and the Guardian did a photo history of his career last week, they reminded us that when he became Chairman of the BBC, his only condition was that he would not have to relinquish his position on the Board at Charlton. Yet he only has a grand's worth of shares. I did wonder last week if he might be thinking of getting more involved. I'd be happy if he did. Not only do I think he's a top bloke, and with Charlton in his blood, but the type of business he's experienced with is much closer to football than the businesses of most of the other directors (at any club).
If you want someone who has a passion for the club then that is him, a great wheeler dealer, and has forgotten more about entertainment than most of us will ever know, so him and Peter Varney as MD please, and the young Ferguson at Pererborough as the manager!, with a reduced board and a place for Murray on it, blimey! there is hope yet.........
Anyhoo, the share price is irrelevant in valuing the club. Any business is worth the total value of it's assets, minus what it owes, plus a bit on top for "goodwill" based on it's potential to make profit, etc. If anyone has a copy of the last set of accounts the first two parts of that will be in there. The third bit is trickier, but I'm guessing that right now it might be zero or even less. It comes down to what the buyer is willing to pay and what the seller is willing to sell for. In this case I'd guess the buyer isn't going to be going much above the value of assets because of our current situation so the real tricky decision comes for the current share holders who are now faced with turning a paper loss into a real one. If they don't have the cash to turn the tanker around they'd be better off doing that, but psychologically people find that hard.
My suspicion is that the key will be the directors loans to the club, which we know are large. If they can get that paid back (and it should show as part of the liabilities), and those creditor-investors have enough shares, then I suspect that it won't matter if some of the others aren't happy about taking the lost.
Just as our players on bigger wages and still under contract will probably go for little or nothing, IF a sale occurs it will be for virtually nothing whilst the buyer accepts to meet all debt obligations. Basically the value of the club is nothing as it's potential for profit placed against debt obligations means no return on your capital; in fact constant injections of cash will be needed. Indeed if someone did take on the club they'd probably want a re-negotiation of the debt and bonds, in order that they have some working capital left. Hence it's a very unlikely scenario that we will be bought until the threat of receivers looms too close.
Wasn't he connected to Palace 15 or so years ago ....?
Lowest unique bid wins the club!!!
Is Richard Branson a Charlton fan!, .......let's hope so! [/quote]
Wasn't he connected to Palace 15 or so years ago ....?
So he could be persuaded to invest in a South East London club with some footballing credentials .......
as proposed to a ragbag shithole of a ground, with an orange chairman and we play in the same colours as his airline red..... there we are sponsor and investor found!
Maybe, Ken.
Let's see, recently we've had:
Agent Dowie
Agent Pardew
Agent Hudson
Agent Soares
Agent Ward
Agent Butterknob
So why not Agent Branson?
He could complete the job where Agents Sunleys and Noades failed in the 80's.
;o)
Perhaps we need a businessman with vision like Branson, he certainly has a magic touch, and Charlton's ties with the community and being near the dome/Olympics may interest him......
As long as he is not a 'double agent'........ I have no problems. He can repent his 'palace sins' .....If people were happy to hand over the club to a bunch of shadowy investment oppourtunist's like Zabeel, then someone like Branson who is generally regarded in business as a fair man I could live with for one and I may not be alone in that. He also has the reputation for letting the businesses run themselves and not being like the QPR chairman and selecting the team.
It would also give Charlton a massive PR lift, and his connections with pop world means that we could also utilse the valley as a rock venue/ entertainment venue.
Only a thought!
My assumption as a complete ameteur in such matters is that the Director bonds and recent asset sell offs will maintain their value whereas the shares won't, unless of course we go into administration, which is presumably why over the last year this method of finance has been preferred to a share option - protecting the investment?
So when valuing the club don't forget as well as the friendly loans, we have the training ground and property buy back to add in, and the mortgage of £7m?
'The Company has the right to convert all outstanding corporate bonds into fully paid ordinary shares of 30p each following a change of control provided that the bondholders are able to sell their shares to the buyer in excess of par.
'The Bonds are secured by a debenture over the groups assets'