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Betting Dilemma

ChoiceChoice
edited May 2010 in General Charlton
On Monday I placed the following bet

CHARLTON/CHARLTON HT/FT
MILLWALL/MILLWALL HT/FT
ROTHERHAM TO WIN
MORECOMBE TO WIN (very lucky)
CARDIFF TO WIN (90mins)

£10 acc pays £720

Just wondering about betting now on the draw and a blackpool win (after 90mins). If I do £100 on both of those then i would be looking at £520 if cardiff won, and getting roughly about £100 on the draw and blackpool winning (thats taking into account the additional £200 laid out, thus guaranteeing i would get a return plus £125 in free bets with 2 different online bookies (tote and bet365). Alternatively i could open a bet 365 account and place £200 on the draw at 90mins and get a £200 free bet which would give me £520 on a cardiff win or about £300 on the draw again taking into accont the £200 laid out plus id have the £200 free bet, if blackpool won then im screwed.

Your opinions...what would you do. Im tempted to let it ride on cardiff and go for the draw as a back up and pray blackpool dont do it in 90mins...discuss please
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Comments

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    JTJT
    Good bet.

    I would personally play in play on Saturday, see how the game goes.
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    johnnybev1987johnnybev1987
    my head hurts!
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    BigRedEvilBigRedEvil
    Swindon won the 2nd half vs us though didn't they?

    Anyway if you've won money already take it and run, bookies will always win in the end
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    WSSWSS
    [cite]Posted By: BigRedEvil[/cite]Swindon won the 2nd half vs us though didn't they?

    Anyway if you've won money already take it and run, bookies will always win in the end
    Pretty sure it means winning at HT/FT BRE, not winning each half.
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    ChoiceChoice
    [cite]Posted By: WSS[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: BigRedEvil[/cite]Swindon won the 2nd half vs us though didn't they?

    Anyway if you've won money already take it and run, bookies will always win in the end
    Pretty sure it means winning at HT/FT BRE, not winning each half.

    correct
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    IAIA
    I'd put bigger bets on the draw and Blackpool winning, bringing it up to a point where you're guaranteeing £300 or so no matter what the result is. Maximise the earnings and get rid of all risk. Free money.

    Nice bet, by the way
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    ScohamScoham
    [cite]Posted By: IA[/cite]I'd put bigger bets on the draw and Blackpool winning, bringing it up to a point where you're guaranteeing £300 or so no matter what the result is. Maximise the earnings and get rid of all risk. Free money.

    Nice bet, by the way
    Good idea, I'd go with that.
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    RedZed333RedZed333
    If a bookie thinks they are in for a big hit then they'll lay some bets off...

    Makes sense for you to cover your options too...

    You've already got the Cardiff win covered and you know the potential returns so you can use some of those 'winnings' to place more bets....

    Of course any further outlay reduces your winnings but at least you'll have a profit....
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    kinveachyaddickkinveachyaddick
    Great bet mate. You've got to lay some off and 'green up' to guarantee yourself a payout.

    You'd be kicking yourself if Blackpool did win (and there's no reason why they won't).

    Alternatively simply open a Betfair account and lay Cardiff for £200 or so?
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    colthe3rdcolthe3rd
    Why don't you lay Cardiff on Betfair, think they can be layed at 2.44 so ton on that still leaves with around £500 should they win and £100 if they don't
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    johnnybev1987johnnybev1987
    I'd bet £100 Cardiff to win in full time, no other bets

    That way you have profited £620 regardless of the outcome rather then hingeing it all on the one game as theres bound to be a bet you havent covered or which wont work out aswell, likewise if you fancy blackpool do £100 for them to win

    Cardiff will win 2-0nil, hope they dont though
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    GRAY9GRAY9
    [cite]Posted By: colthe3rd[/cite]Why don't you lay Cardiff on Betfair, think they can be layed at 2.44 so ton on that still leaves with around £500 should they win and £100 if they don't

    If it was a draw he would lose all
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    windscreenwindscreen
    I really like the dumb warning at the end of the Paddy Power Advert on Talksport: Bet responsibly LOL!
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    Chris_from_SidcupChris_from_Sidcup
    Definitely cover yourself for all eventualities. Absolutely DO NOT assume that Blackpool won't do it and then you're completely done over. Both league games between the two finished 1-1 so there's no reason why Blackpool can't nick it, especially after what they did to Forest.

    I'd put £100 or so on the draw and the same amount on a Blackpool win.
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    SantaClausSantaClaus
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: colthe3rd[/cite]Why don't you lay Cardiff on Betfair, think they can be layed at 2.44 so ton on that still leaves with around £500 should they win and £100 if they don't

    If it was a draw he would lose all

    Doesn't sound right.

    Lay at betfair. Best odds and very simple
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    Chris_from_SidcupChris_from_Sidcup
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]I'd bet £100 Cardiff to win in full time, no other bets

    That way you have profited £620 regardless of the outcome rather then hingeing it all on the one game as theres bound to be a bet you havent covered or which wont work out aswell, likewise if you fancy blackpool do £100 for them to win

    Eh? Betting on a Cardiff win is exactly the bet he doesn't need to make as he's already got them covered in his accumulator
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    ValleyGaryValleyGary
    [cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]Definitely cover yourself for all eventualities. Absolutely DO NOT assume that Blackpool won't do it and then you're completely done over. Both league games between the two finished 1-1 so there's no reason why Blackpool can't nick it, especially after what they did to Forest.

    I'd put £100 or so on the draw and the same amount on a Blackpool win.

    Whats the return for a Blackpool win from a ton?
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    GRAY9GRAY9
    Blackpool +1 is 4/6 with BetFred.

    You could have £300 on that then:

    If Cardiff win you're £410 up
    Any other outcome £190 up
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    Chris_from_SidcupChris_from_Sidcup
    Blackpool are 9/4 with Betfred so £100 will return you £325.
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    johnnybev1987johnnybev1987
    [cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]I'd bet £100 Cardiff to win in full time, no other bets

    That way you have profited £620 regardless of the outcome rather then hingeing it all on the one game as theres bound to be a bet you havent covered or which wont work out aswell, likewise if you fancy blackpool do £100 for them to win

    Eh? Betting on a Cardiff win is exactly the bet he doesn't need to make as he's already got them covered in his accumulator

    sorry i didn't quite get that at first glance, thought it was money he already won so ignore please

    on that note just keep the bet what it is and reckon you will have won :o)
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    johnnybev1987johnnybev1987
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]Blackpool +1 is 4/6 with BetFred.

    You could have £300 on that then:

    If Cardiff win you're £410 up
    Any other outcome £190 up

    this is probably the best option if you want to gurantee bet, however still will be down on initial £720 you could win which is looking likely imo. basically stick to what you got and hope for the best in the final match, all or nothing
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    colthe3rdcolthe3rd
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: colthe3rd[/cite]Why don't you lay Cardiff on Betfair, think they can be layed at 2.44 so ton on that still leaves with around £500 should they win and £100 if they don't

    If it was a draw he would lose all
    He would win because you are laying a cardiff win, basically you are acting as bookmaker, if someone backs Cardiff to win the bookie lays them at a price, therefore if Blackpool win or if its a draw the bookie wins. To me this seems the most sensible thing to do as it covers all bases.
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    SouthendaddickSouthendaddick
    My only consolation from Monday is I lumped on Swindon to get to Wembley.

    Very scant though :(
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    SantaClausSantaClaus
    Lay cardiff for £295 and you're guaranteed £295-300
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    Chris_from_SidcupChris_from_Sidcup
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]Blackpool +1 is 4/6 with BetFred.

    You could have £300 on that then:

    If Cardiff win you're £410 up
    Any other outcome £190 up

    this is probably the best option if you want to gurantee bet, however still will be down on initial £720 you could win which is looking likely imo. basically stick to what you got and hope for the best in the final match, all or nothing

    Johnny, no offence mate but your advice is rubbish. Ending up with nothing is precisely what he doesn't want and is why he started this thread in the first place! So far you've told him to bet on Cardiff when he already has, and now you're telling him to stick with it when he could end up without a penny! Are you his bookie?
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    johnnybev1987johnnybev1987
    [cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]Blackpool +1 is 4/6 with BetFred.

    You could have £300 on that then:

    If Cardiff win you're £410 up
    Any other outcome £190 up

    this is probably the best option if you want to gurantee bet, however still will be down on initial £720 you could win which is looking likely imo. basically stick to what you got and hope for the best in the final match, all or nothing

    Johnny, no offence mate but your advice is rubbish. Ending up with nothing is precisely what he doesn't want and is why he started this thread in the first place! So far you've told him to bet on Cardiff when he already has, and now you're telling him to stick with it when he could end up without a penny! Are you his bookie?

    No mate just merely stating what i would do, didnt realise first so apologise but that example was excluded. the reason i am saying go for it as im pretty confident cardiff will win and i like the bet and how gutted would he be if cardiff do win as he has not maximised his profit? still each to their own a safe bet is to do what gray9 has suggested if not just leave it. but thats only my opinion whether wrong or right!
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    ChoiceChoice
    edited May 2010
    [cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]Blackpool +1 is 4/6 with BetFred.

    You could have £300 on that then:

    If Cardiff win you're £410 up
    Any other outcome £190 up

    this is probably the best option if you want to gurantee bet, however still will be down on initial £720 you could win which is looking likely imo. basically stick to what you got and hope for the best in the final match, all or nothing

    Johnny, no offence mate but your advice is rubbish. Ending up with nothing is precisely what he doesn't want and is why he started this thread in the first place! So far you've told him to bet on Cardiff when he already has, and now you're telling him to stick with it when he could end up without a penny! Are you his bookie?

    lol precisely
    my gut feeling is that if cardiff dont win in 90mins this game could go to extra time and the offer of the £200 free bet with bet365 is attractive which is why i considered eliminating the blackpool win but the whole point is to cover all bases really. am hoping a lot of money goes on cardiff today affecting the blackpool price
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    GRAY9GRAY9
    [cite]Posted By: Southendaddick[/cite]My only consolation from Monday is I lumped on Swindon to get to Wembley.

    Very scant though :(

    I had £250 on Millwall at 9/4 to win play offs (as an insurance policy for all the stick I will get). I'm also thinking of laying this off and backing Swindon to get promoted at 7/5.
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    colthe3rdcolthe3rd
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: Chris_from_Sidcup[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: johnnybev1987[/cite]
    [cite]Posted By: GRAY9[/cite]Blackpool +1 is 4/6 with BetFred.

    You could have £300 on that then:

    If Cardiff win you're £410 up
    Any other outcome £190 up

    this is probably the best option if you want to gurantee bet, however still will be down on initial £720 you could win which is looking likely imo. basically stick to what you got and hope for the best in the final match, all or nothing

    Johnny, no offence mate but your advice is rubbish. Ending up with nothing is precisely what he doesn't want and is why he started this thread in the first place! So far you've told him to bet on Cardiff when he already has, and now you're telling him to stick with it when he could end up without a penny! Are you his bookie?

    No mate just merely stating what i would do, didnt realise first so apologise but that example was excluded. the reason i am saying go for it as im pretty confident cardiff will win and i like the bet and how gutted would he be if cardiff do win as he has not maximised his profit? still each to their own a safe bet is to do what gray9 has suggested if not just leave it. but thats only my opinion whether wrong or right!
    Yeah he would be really gutted if he just won £500. You are the bookies perfect customer
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    ElthamaddickElthamaddick
    go with IA's suggestion personally, cover the draw and Blackpool win to guarantee yourself a few hundred quid whatever the outcome.

    great bet btw
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