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STATS - Our success rate vs the 23

adrianadrian
edited May 2012 in General Charlton
At the start of every season, I take a hard look at the updated record against our future opponents. Pinpoints the teams we MUST beat to improve our stats. Pumps resolve.
Here's sharing with like-minded Lifers.
1st figure is total points %, in brackets, doubles achieved/conceded and last figure is number of seasons we've finished above them (in our 84 seasons history)

1 Peterboro 77,3 (+2/0) 81
2 Hull 65,5 (+5/-1) 62
3 Bristol City 59,9 (+8/-2) 56
4 Cardiff 57,9 (+5/0) 55
5 Leicester 55,1 (+4/-2) 29
6 Watford 53,9 (+4/-2) 64
7 Barnsley 53,8 (+3/0) 62
8 Huddersfield 53,5 (+5/-4) 51
9 Birmingham 53,1 (+2/-2) 33
10 Ipswich 50 (+3/-3) 46
11 Nottingham F 50 (+2/-2) 27
12 Middlesboro 49,4 (+6/-7) 27
13 Derby 48,5 (+5/-7) 27
14 Burnley 47,7 (+2/-3) 38
15 Brighton 46,8 (+3/-5) 66
16 Blackburn 45,5 (+4/-5) 31
17 Sheff Wed 45 (+3/-5) 29
18 Palace 42,9 (+2/-5) 47
19 Bolton 40,7 (+4/-7) 29
20 Wolves 36,6 (+4/-11) 19
21 Blackpool 36 (+2/-7) 40
22 Leeds 35,4 (+1/-5) 27
23 Millwall 32,3 (+3/-9) 55

Comments

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    adrianadrian
    Text is foggy. How do I get it printed in bold?
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    kings hill addickkings hill addick
    What formula are you using to calculate the points percentage?
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    adrianadrian
    What formula are you using to calculate the points percentage?
    Basic maths. Take Brighton: our record is 19 wins, 9 draws, 22 defeats.
    19 x 3 = 57 + 9 = 66. That's our points, to be divided by total points available, that is: 19 x 3, + 2 x 9, + 3 x 22 = 141.
    66 divided by 141 = O,4680851, or 46,8%.

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    kings hill addickkings hill addick
    Interesting, thanks.
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    CallumcafcCallumcafc
    What formula are you using to calculate the points percentage?
    Basic maths. Take Brighton: our record is 19 wins, 9 draws, 22 defeats.
    19 x 3 = 57 + 9 = 66. That's our points, to be divided by total points available, that is: 19 x 3, + 2 x 9, + 3 x 22 = 141.
    66 divided by 141 = O,4680851, or 46,8%.

    Why "2 x 9" and not "3 x 9"?
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    Covered EndCovered End
    What formula are you using to calculate the points percentage?
    Basic maths. Take Brighton: our record is 19 wins, 9 draws, 22 defeats.
    19 x 3 = 57 + 9 = 66. That's our points, to be divided by total points available, that is: 19 x 3, + 2 x 9, + 3 x 22 = 141.
    66 divided by 141 = O,4680851, or 46,8%.

    Why "2 x 9" and not "3 x 9"?
    Because he cocked it up. Obviously 150 not 141. Oh no, not more maths arguements !
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    adrianadrian
    What formula are you using to calculate the points percentage?
    Basic maths. Take Brighton: our record is 19 wins, 9 draws, 22 defeats.
    19 x 3 = 57 + 9 = 66. That's our points, to be divided by total points available, that is: 19 x 3, + 2 x 9, + 3 x 22 = 141.
    66 divided by 141 = O,4680851, or 46,8%.

    Why "2 x 9" and not "3 x 9"?
    That's because you can only use the points which have been distributed. If you use 3 for draws you get some obviously wrong results.
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    stonemusestonemuse
    No surprise our crap form against spanners ...which will finally change next season :-)
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    HastingsaddickHastingsaddick
    Good record V Millwall then.
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    RobRob
    Shouldn't total points available be 150? 50 games x 3 (assuming 3 points per win).
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    redmanredman
    It depends what you are trying to show. You should use 150 if you want to show it as a % of the total points we could have got. However what Adrian is doing is showing it as a % of points actaully awarded on that game ie in a draw only 2 points were actually awarded.
    For a comparison against other clubs I believe Adrian's approach is spot on.
    Interesting stats
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    kings hill addickkings hill addick
    An alternative would be to break down the percentages of win-draw-defeat, as this would remove the bias of a win being 50% more points than a draw.

    Ironically when I was young my Dad explained the league (opposed to a knock out cup competition) as there being two points available and if you win you take them both and if you draw you share them - rather like the concept in test cricket which is one point that is shared half each in the event of a draw.

    With two points for a win it makes the draws have a greater impact on the percentage than with three points for a win. The fact that the football league has had two points for a win for much longer that three points for a win could justify using that in the formula, but this would, no doubt, change the results significantly. On the basis that we have three points for a win now I think the way Adrian has done it gives as good an indication as is necessary - coupled with the fact that if you go back far enough the results have no relevance at all.
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    redmanredman
    They are just interesting statistics - will have no relevance how we perform next year
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    adrianadrian
    This method is not perfect but I think it's the best since the 3 points per win was adopted 31 years ago.
    Because when you compare results, it's really the wins that count.
    Not perfect because it cannot integrate number of games played.
    Example: Our record with Man U is 10W, 1D, 35L = 26,1% (+2/-11), 4 seasons above them.
    Should be the worst of the 98 teams played in league.
    It's not. Daggers is. 0W, 1D, 1L = 20% (+0/-0) 84 seasons above them !!
    Unless we play them again, God forbid, they will remain top of my list of my romantically-named DIRTY DOZEN hopefully forever.
    Suggestions welcome.
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    YannthemanYanntheman
    what are the teams in the 'dirty dozen'?
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    adrianadrian
    what are the teams in the 'dirty dozen'?
    Daggers, ManU, Arsenal, Millwall, Bradford PA, Leeds, Blackpool, Wolves, Cambridge, Tottenham, Scunthorpe, Liverpool.
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    HarryHutchensHarryHutchens
    It does show just how terrible our record against Millwall is - we've consistently been above them in the league yet so often unable to beat them. There's not even a team in the top half of the list that we've 'played above ourselves' against. I wonder if we'd be top of Millwall's list. It's embarrassing how often we've rolled over to them down the years.
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    adrianadrian
    It does show just how terrible our record against Millwall is - we've consistently been above them in the league yet so often unable to beat them. There's not even a team in the top half of the list that we've 'played above ourselves' against. I wonder if we'd be top of Millwall's list. It's embarrassing how often we've rolled over to them down the years.
    By only taking into account teams we've played against for more than 3 seasons, this method becomes more significant. I've therefore modified my dirty dozen
    lists for 1960, 1992 and today.
    Re Millwall, depressing to see them 3rd behind ManU and Arsenal today, 3rd behind Wimbledon and Arsenal in 1992 and again 3rd behind Portsmouth and ManU
    in 1960. Am desperate to see us achieve a couple of doubles against them in my lifetime.
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