Catalan independence

Leroy Ambrose

Most of the major news outlets in Spain and internationally are reporting that parties in favour of a referendum on Catalan independence are likely to win a majority in Catalunya's elections. Massive problems ahead for Spain - the amount of tax that the rest of the country siphons out of the Northeast is enormous - it's basically a microcosm of the econmic situation across Europe, with the Germans subsidising the Mediterranean. Short term pain for Catalunya too - it would take a few years to get admittance to the EU, during which time they'll be flat broke and have to heavily indebt themselves to Germany et al, leaving them years to work off their debts. Eventually they'll be OK, but the rest of Spain will be left with a huge headache. Outside Madrid, Spain is utterly fucked.

Not sure how I feel about this, with a foot in both camps (Catalunya and Valencia)

swords_alive

Doesn't the Spanish constitution forbid any break up. They may be able to hold a referendum, but not legally execute the expected outcome(?)

Leroy Ambrose

Yes, but it won't matter. It's not a world like it was in the past. The only way to stop a country seceding from a union after a democractic process is by force - and that won't happen.

se9addick

Haven't the EU stated before that any portion of a member state ceding from their state would inherit membership automatically ? Thought I read it somewhere (in conjunction with Scottish independence) will try and see if I can dig out a link.

I highly doubt Catalan independence is on the cards, rather it's a great bargaining tool for getting a better deal from central government.

swords_alive said:

Doesn't the Spanish constitution forbid any break up. They may be able to hold a referendum, but not legally execute the expected outcome(?)

I'd imagine most nations would require some sort of constitutional amendment to grant independence to a part of their country so this wouldn't be a huge obstruction.

swords_alive

Quite good discussion about the possibilities and practicalities here -> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20407873

se9addick

se9addick said:

Haven't the EU stated before that any portion of a member state ceding from their state would inherit membership automatically ? Thought I read it somewhere (in conjunction with Scottish independence) will try and see if I can dig out a link.

Actually I'm completely, and utterly wrong about this !

smudge7946

What would happen to Barcelona? Would they have to leave La Liga?

Algarveaddick

smudge7946 said:

What would happen to Barcelona? Would they have to leave La Liga?

That's probably what's behind it all, guaranteed champions for eternity... ( this IS a joke by the way).

TelMc32

SE9's comment that it's a great bargaining tool, rather than an all-out independance push for now, is spot on. The region is in an appaling state (€42bn in debt, before you factor in their "share" of the national debt), the worst of the 17 regions, but they are rightly aggrieved that they contribute more than 20% of the country's GDP and are subsidising some of the poorer regions in the south.

It's going to be a long struggle for the whole country with a further 1.7% contraction expected next year (although Madrid are forecasting only a -0.5%).

Absurdistan

Bloody Hell, that would mean 2 Spanish teams.We have next to zero hope of winning anything with just 1 Spanish team. Therefore I hope it doesn't happen.