Absolutely gutted. Had PP up on my phone this morning seeing the price of the duke, but kiddies got in the way and it never happened.
Well done peanuts. It's all a bit of fun and should never be taken seriously. But your bit of fun has probably resulted in the last couple of years as a net £10k plus benefit to your fellow lifers.
A big collective thank you. I'm looking forward to the GN analysis already, and if it doesn't pay off then so what, you've made it all a whole lot.more interesting.
What wins Sussex national at Plumpton tomorrow, Reblis is top weight but has a chance if Fehily can keep him interested.
Haven't got a clue Steve, I'm sorry to say. I'm a stats-man and there's few races that have the history or idiosyncracies that make for the sort of analysis I like to do. Certainly long distance handicap chases offer the best opportunities but only for the Aintree and to some extent the Welsh and Irish Nationals is the degree of data sufficient (higher-rated fields also help).
Absolutely gutted. Had PP up on my phone this morning seeing the price of the duke, but kiddies got in the way and it never happened.
Well done peanuts. It's all a bit of fun and should never be taken seriously. But your bit of fun has probably resulted in the last couple of years as a net £10k plus benefit to your fellow lifers.
A big collective thank you. I'm looking forward to the GN analysis already, and if it doesn't pay off then so what, you've made it all a whole lot.more interesting.
Too kind Dan. Not sure if Mrs Molloy looks forward to me going into hibernation in front of my PC for 2 months..... so long as it keep paying off the plastic I guess ;o)
Thanks Peanuts had £20 E/W on it and so did some of my mates,Why dont you give a tip out each week.
Glad to oblige. Cheers for the confidence but TBH, if I gave a tip out every week, we'd pretty rapidly be broke. I'll stick to the Nationals if that's OK...........................a man's got to know his limitations.
Well done Peanuts, look forward to your next one. As like AFKA, was 20 mins too late for a bet, and was gutted - but well done. Looking forward to the GN - looks like SE London Bookies could take a bashing !
Monbeg Dude has been introduced by bookmakers at 33-1 for the Grand National at Aintree in April, while Teaforthree remains at 20-1. If it's a bog is he worth backing for a second national win?
They've given the Dude a Gold Cup entry. Only Burrough Hill Lad (1983-4) has won both in the same season in recent history (Master Oats did it 1994-5 but the Welsh Nat was run at Newbury that year). A very big ask for the Dude but he is heading for the Haydock Grand National Trial in Feb and a good showing there could see him go for it if the ground were to be on the soft side.....though if it came up soft he'd have Tidal Bay to contend with. Handicapper has put him up to 138 which should just get him a run in the GN but the trainer has pretty much ruled it out this year on grounds of age (8 is still pretty young for the GN) and the need to improve his jumping.
Thanks for the informative update PeanutsMolloy. Gold Cup would be interesting if a quagmire. Although Bobsworth looks a good bet? 80-1 = maybe worth a each way hoping for soft ground.
Well if Nortons Coin (100/1) could win it ahead of Desert Orchid (1990) anything could happen and it is certainly not unusual for rank outsiders to run into a place, staying on past horses that cut each others' throats up with the pace. But a) he'd be running at level weights against horses currently rated more than 2 stone better b) IMHO it's too early to speculate on the ground and c) they may decide not to run whatever the conditions. It's also a golden rule of betting: resist getting sentimentally attached to horses that won for you. Personally I'll be taking a look nearer the day.
Monbeg Dude has been introduced by bookmakers at 33-1 for the Grand National at Aintree in April, while Teaforthree remains at 20-1. If it's a bog is he worth backing for a second national win?
Just been dusting off my GN spreadsheet and recalled an important stat about 8 year olds. In the 5 GNs since 1988 (excluding the farce of 2001 when only 2 finished without falling) which were run on officially soft or heavy, or whose time suggested that the ground was soft or heavy, no horse younger than 9 has made the frame. Indeed, of the 27 horses younger than 9 to run in these 5 GNs, only 4 finished (14.8%) [none within 30L of winner] compared with an average finishing rate of 22.8% for these races. Trainer is definitely right to dodge it this year, according to the stats, even (perhaps particularly) if he were to get his preferred soft ground.
Comments
Well done peanuts. It's all a bit of fun and should never be taken seriously. But your bit of fun has probably resulted in the last couple of years as a net £10k plus benefit to your fellow lifers.
A big collective thank you. I'm looking forward to the GN analysis already, and if it doesn't pay off then so what, you've made it all a whole lot.more interesting.
I'm a stats-man and there's few races that have the history or idiosyncracies that make for the sort of analysis I like to do. Certainly long distance handicap chases offer the best opportunities but only for the Aintree and to some extent the Welsh and Irish Nationals is the degree of data sufficient (higher-rated fields also help).
As like AFKA, was 20 mins too late for a bet, and was gutted - but well done.
Looking forward to the GN - looks like SE London Bookies could take a bashing !
Handicapper has put him up to 138 which should just get him a run in the GN but the trainer has pretty much ruled it out this year on grounds of age (8 is still pretty young for the GN) and the need to improve his jumping.
Gold Cup would be interesting if a quagmire. Although Bobsworth looks a good bet?
80-1 = maybe worth a each way hoping for soft ground.
It's also a golden rule of betting: resist getting sentimentally attached to horses that won for you. Personally I'll be taking a look nearer the day.
In the 5 GNs since 1988 (excluding the farce of 2001 when only 2 finished without falling) which were run on officially soft or heavy, or whose time suggested that the ground was soft or heavy, no horse younger than 9 has made the frame. Indeed, of the 27 horses younger than 9 to run in these 5 GNs, only 4 finished (14.8%) [none within 30L of winner] compared with an average finishing rate of 22.8% for these races.
Trainer is definitely right to dodge it this year, according to the stats, even (perhaps particularly) if he were to get his preferred soft ground.