We were the last team to be promoted finishing 4th,is this good or bad news for the Seagulls?
Either in the 15 years we must be due a 4th placed team being promoted or there is a curse only to be broken next year when Charlton finish in that position.
Some interesting numbers, I remember we went on a great run in 1998, but 2.71 points per game is amazing. By contrast, in 1996 a tired and struggling team just made the playoffs, with 1 point per game. Not surprisingly we didn't go up that season!
It's a shame they didn't take into account the difficulty of the teams played from April 1st onwards in terms of league position. Without that data it's not close to a fair comparison.
The article states "As always, you should be careful about using past performance to predict the future." Especially if you're going to ignore so many other factors, yes.
Interesting that for the first 7 seasons the team that finished 3rd DIDN'T get promoted.
Palace have twice got promotion from finishing 6th, but NOT 5th which is where they finished this season , so we can all breath a collective sigh of relief , and prepare for a return to Selhurst next season / i'm never going back to that dump again.
It would be interesting to see a test of statistical significance on those percentages they give (well, you did say it was statto heaven), but from eyeballing them it really does look like a lottery to me.
One of those years the play offs were made up of the clubs finishing 2,3,4 and 5 due to changing the number of teams in Premiership so only 1 automatic promotion place.
are they just saying the team that finished 2nd are considered to be the 3rd place team for the purposes of these stats?
I think what they don't mention (all be it they discuss form) is that squad changes (both transfers in and out and injuries) can make a team significantly better, or weaker, at the end of the season than they have been over the season.
It was no coincidence (in my opinion) that we signed Danny Mills and Eddie Youlds then went on a run of ten clean sheets in 1998. I know the transfer windows have reduced the ability of teams to make changes late in the season, but the loan window can still enable a club chasing promotion to bring in a couple of players that make their changes in the playoffs disproportionately good compared to their final league position.
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Powell OUT!
Either in the 15 years we must be due a 4th placed team being promoted or there is a curse only to be broken next year when Charlton finish in that position.
By contrast, in 1996 a tired and struggling team just made the playoffs, with 1 point per game. Not surprisingly we didn't go up that season!
The article states "As always, you should be careful about using past performance to predict the future." Especially if you're going to ignore so many other factors, yes.
Palace have twice got promotion from finishing 6th, but NOT 5th which is where they finished this season , so we can all breath a collective sigh of relief , and prepare for a return to Selhurst next season / i'm never going back to that dump again.
are they just saying the team that finished 2nd are considered to be the 3rd place team for the purposes of these stats?
It was no coincidence (in my opinion) that we signed Danny Mills and Eddie Youlds then went on a run of ten clean sheets in 1998. I know the transfer windows have reduced the ability of teams to make changes late in the season, but the loan window can still enable a club chasing promotion to bring in a couple of players that make their changes in the playoffs disproportionately good compared to their final league position.
Charlton's end of season form in 1998 was 38 points from 14 games - amazing.