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Law of Probability question regarding a card game

Every other Wednesday I go to a kind of game playing association.The games are very varied and this evening I found myself playing a card game with two young girls. The rules of the game weren't quite clear and we weren't sure if we were meant to choose two cards from eight (therefore discarding two) blind or if we were meant to be able to see the cards. These cards were just character cards used to begin each round of play. The order of play in each round came into the equation but I was basically arguing that we should be able to see the cards, otherwise choosing first held no advantage. The two girls argued that if you chose first, even blindly, then you held a higher probablity of getting the card you wanted. I argued that choosing first changed nothing since they'd be just as likely to leave me the cards I want anyway.

Basically then we disagreed over the law of probability. I was sure I was right but as it was 2 against 1 we carried on choosing the cards blind.

So Lifers: who was right - me or the two girls?


  • Were the girls fit?
  • Off_it said:

    Were the girls fit?

    Actual LOL

  • The 2 girls obviously, what you wrote is as clear as mud.
  • Off_it said:

    Were the girls fit?

    Absolutely. After beating them at cards I shagged them both senseless on the table.

  • Those crazy french ladeez
  • What was the question?
  • What was the question?

    Lost me after the first sentence.

    Two girls were shagged on a table and they were blind, what are the odds on that?
    Or something like that.
  • If you go first you have a 1 in 4 chance of picking one of your cards (for the first card) and then a 1 in 7 chance for the second card ......

    If they went first the first bird has those odds of getting them two cards as well .... But by getting just one of them they stop you from getting the two so 1 in 4 (so 3 in 4 chance in your favour)then a 2 in 7 (5 in 7 for you) ... So if both are missed then for the next person it's 1 in 3 (2 in 3 for you) and then 2 in 5 (3 in 5 for you)... Then if still missed you have a 1 in 2 and 1 in 3 chance of getting them ....

    Someone with a more mathematical mind will explain the numbers but I'm reckoning/guessing you've got more chance going first

    Having re read that I can't work it out but using what I think is the right method you may be right

    1 x 1 and 4 x 7 is 1 in 28 chance

    Then 3 x 5 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 1 (90) and 4 x 7 x 3 x 5 x 2 x 3 (2520) which is 1 in 28 as well

    So I've changed my mind so you're right

    Almost like working out our home/away ratio :-)

    There's gotta be someone out there who can confirm one way or t'other
  • If you choose blindly you do not have an increased chance.

    If you pick the card blindly you have a set chance 1/8 of picking that card.

    If someone else picks the other cards (again blind) you still have the 1/8 chance, it's just that you have less choice over which ones you get to pick. The only time the odds change is when the actual cards picked are revealed.

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  • Basically, you were right, although it does depend on the exact rules of the game.

    Let's assume the following:-

    - There are 8 cards on the table, ranked (in order of preference) 1-8, where 1 is the best card, and 8 is the worst.
    - The order of preference is the same for both players. This is important.
    - The players are 'intelligent' (i.e. given the choice, will always choose the best available card).

    Let's now look at the odds of getting the 'top' card.

    If the cards are face-up, player 1 will always pick the 'top' card (100%). The chance of player 2 taking the top card are therefore 0%.

    If the cards are face-down, the chance of player 1 taking the top card are 1/8, or 12.5%.

    In order for player 2 to get the top card, it must first be avoided by player 1 (7/8 chance), and then randomly chosen by player 2 (1/7 chance). The chance of this happening are therefore 7/8 * 1/7 = 1/8 (12.5%).

    There is therefore no advantage to going first if playing 'blind'.
  • The Doctor was his mother.
  • Thanks for confirming that guys. I was so sure that I was right and it was frustrating not being able to explain why. Obviously the table helped ease my frustration but here in France we're all having sex all the time so much anyway that it gets boring, and I would have preferred to settle the argument about probability law. I shall set to translate these calculations and insist on explaining them to the group quickly before they start the so predictable early evening flirtations.
  • Were you picking the top card in the pile or were they laid out and you had to choose one? Because that changes everything.
  • Who had to take their clothes of first?
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