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  • seriously_red
    seriously_red Posts: 5,741
    I think we are good enough (mid table form) to secure our Championship status at one of the two home games - this side is starting to grow and I hope we can keep the best players.
    Very hard to call who the third team going down might be and to be honest would prefer we are safe first.
  • The_President
    The_President Posts: 14,280
    Looking at the fixtures now, i think that favourites for the last spot are now Donny and Millwall. Cant see either getting many points and can see Millwall going down on 45 points.
    One draw now and i think we are safe.
  • Blucher
    Blucher Posts: 4,172
    Although there is still work to do, what is really comforting is that we are top of a five team league, competing to avoid the final relegation slot. As a result, the odd surprise result won't leave us in the cart, as not all of these teams will pick up points in the final rounds of games.

    Two points from the Blackburn and Watford games should ensure we're clear of danger before the final day at Blackpool. It would be great to get three on Saturday but that might be a little too straightforward for CAFC.
  • Killarahales
    Killarahales Posts: 1,074
    The key is still to be 4 points above Blackpool before that final game. If they lose their next match then we need two points from our two home games.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,669
    Millwall or Doncaster for the third spot I reckon. Blackpool to beat us on final day to relegate Millwall is my prediction.
  • The_President
    The_President Posts: 14,280
    Interesting that we have Spongefoot, and Blackpool have Clubfoot..... Post #22..
    http://www.backhenrystreet.co.uk/thread-18328-page-2.html#.U1VyIPRDuWg
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 70,238
    I still expect there to be unexpected results between now and the end of the season, the freak victory out of nowhere. Hopefully Watford will be out of playoff contention by the time we play them, as Blackburn will be a tough game (their next game is away to Derby)
  • Paddy Powell
    Paddy Powell Posts: 2,853
    If you're feeling pessimistic about our chances, you can still get 25/1 on Charlton being relegated at Bet365.

    We are generally priced between 10/1 and 16/1 elsewhere, so that is a pretty decent price.
  • Mendonca In Asdas
    Mendonca In Asdas Posts: 22,685
    If we can beat Blackburn and Blackpool lose next weekend we are officially safe.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,809
    If Reading beat Donny we are unofficially safe whatever we do!

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  • LargeAddick
    LargeAddick Posts: 32,862
    Brum's next two games are at home. They have not won at home since October.
  • dizzee
    dizzee Posts: 5,616
    Sign Riga up NOW
  • Redvalleyeast
    Redvalleyeast Posts: 4,792
    Fantastic win today,totally unexpected by nearly all of us....BUT we are not safe yet ,still work to be done,so near now though COYR!!!!
  • CrayAddick
    CrayAddick Posts: 3,913
    I still very uneasy about the last few games. 4 points and we should be ok.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,669
    CrayAddick said:

    I still very uneasy about the last few games. 4 points and we should be ok.

    I think two will be enough.

  • Lazy_eye_metaphor
    Lazy_eye_metaphor Posts: 1,960
    edited April 2014
    Its simple really. If we win on Saturday and any one of Donny, Bpool or the scum lose, we are safe. In fact, we would be safe even if Bpool draw rather than lose.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 64,116
    ShootersHillGuru said:

    Millwall or Doncaster for the third spot I reckon. Blackpool to beat us on final day to relegate Millwall is my prediction.

    "We sent the Spanners down"?
  • nth_london_addick
    nth_london_addick Posts: 35,919
    Win one if the 3 and it's all done

    Personally I think we will draw against Blackburn

    Yeovil Barnsley donny bham Blackpool Millwank will lose

    And then we are home and hosed
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 70,238
    I expect us to lose against Blackburn, but most of the teams below us will lose as well. Watford may be a better chance of picking up points, hopefully we can go into the last weekend with a decent GD advantage
  • AidenTheAddick
    AidenTheAddick Posts: 1,061
    CrayAddick said:

    I still very uneasy about the last few games. 4 points and we should be ok.

    I actually think that we'll be okay even in the ultra pessimistic scenario that we lose all three remaining games.

    Millwall: I can't see them getting more than one point from QPR and Bournemouth, so we should stay above them on goal difference (even if we lose all three).

    Doncaster: I think they will lose to both Reading and Leicester, and even if they pick up one point from those two games we should still finish above them on goal difference - even if we lose all three.

    Birmingham: I think they would finish above us if we were to lose all of our remaining games. However, a record of 1 draw and 2 losses from Leeds, Wigan and Bolton doesn't sound too implausible; in which case, we'd finish above them.

    Blackpool: Obviously, if we lost all of our remaining games, one would be against Blackpool, meaning that they would finish above us.

    Barnsley: I think 3 points from Middlesbrough and QPR is the best they could hope for, which would still see them relegated.

    Yeovil: Pretty much gone.

    Therefore, I think that even if we lose all three that we'll finish above Yeovil, Barnsley, and at least one of Millwall, Doncaster or Birmingham.


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  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 38,128
    Could do with Reading winning and Leicester losing tonight. Then if Leicester don't win at Hudders they will need to beat Donny to become Champions on the last day. Reading need to keep their play-off hopes in their hands, so i think Doncaster are right in the shit.

    Can see us just needing another point but 3 and its all over.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,809
    edited April 2014
    Reading at home is a massive game for Donny as I can't see them getting anything from Leicester. Millwall really have to hope we have something to play for when we play Blackpool. Not because the players won't try - but this has been a real physical test for them and when (if) they get over the line, I think the intensity will go. I can't see anything other than a QPR win on Staurday.

    We shouldn't forget Brum - they haven't won at home in 16 and they have 2 home games coming up! They could be this season's Wolves.
  • queensland_addick
    queensland_addick Posts: 7,567
    Big day today, thought I'd bump this back to the top.
  • doronron
    doronron Posts: 824
    Yeovil gone,think Barnsley will follow today ,next Saturday the third from bottom will be filled,it wont matter about our Blackpool game
  • BigRedEvil
    BigRedEvil Posts: 11,110
    We win today and we will be safe! COYR!
  • queensland_addick
    queensland_addick Posts: 7,567
    Updated:
    18. Charlton - 45 pts - Blackburn (h) Watford (h) Blackpool (a)
    19. Doncaster - 44 pts - Reading (h), Leicester (a)
    20. Millwall - 44 pts - QPR (a), Bournemouth (h)
    21. Birmingham - 43 pts - Leeds (h) Wigan (h), Bolton (a),
    22. Blackpool - 43 pts - Wigan (a), Charlton (h)
    23. Barnsley - 39 pts - Middlesborough (a), QPR (h)
    24 Yeovil
  • PopIcon
    PopIcon Posts: 5,970
    I think the rearranged fixture vs Doncaster is the one that will have saved us. I think we'll be safe come Blackpool, but we'll lose and subsequently Doncaster will drop.
  • charente addick
    charente addick Posts: 3,832
    Based on somewhat subjective probability calculations I reckon we have roughly a 24% chance of being safe today and a 75% chance of being safe by full time on Tuesday night.
  • Uboat
    Uboat Posts: 12,243
    killerandflash said:

    I still expect there to be unexpected results

    Wouldn't that stop them from being unexpected?

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