People should not get too carried away with expectations about UKIP at the General Election - the press are going to be going for them big time, in fact the Tory supporters at The Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph et al are going to be getting confused over whether they should concentrate on pouring buckets of shit over Labour or UKIP.
Add onto this the fact that UKIP are going to have a rag-tag army of lunatic candidates with graveyards full of skeletons in their closets and the media are going to have a field day - just look at the fun they had with them in the Euro/Locals which nobody gives a toss about.
A General Election is the Major Leagues and the microscope is extremely fierce and this is where the amateurs get exposed for being just that, UKIP can't rely solely on the talented but utterly disingenuous Farage, their supporting cast will be hunted down and exposed.
My bet, with the economy recovering slowly and the dreadful 'wrong' Milliband leading Labour, is Cameron to win a narrow majority in his own right.
It seems to me that the biggest sea change in politics will be because of technology, social media and the internet. Traditional politics does not seem to have adapted to this very well. Obviously it is dangerous in as much as a transient head of steam can be quickly built for this or that reason, but the internet is a force that cannot be ignored. Judging by the speed that the late Stephen Sutton got his message out, and more importantly got action and reaction, then I think politicians will underestimate the internet, and facebook tweets and so forth at their peril.
This is the most unpredictable political landscape in my lifetime.
Previously swings would be pretty uniform between elections and only a couple of percentage points would be down to local factors . In my view that changed in 1997 when many voters started voting tactically on a mass scale to oust a Tory Government .
Previously tactical voting mainly only happened at By Elections, which did not effect who was in power or local and European elections . My view is many voters now happily lend their votes to keep out the party they dislike the most rather than support. The main benefices of this previously has been the Lib Dems .Before the Brighton game I drank in Lewes on Saturday which is held by Lib Dem Norman Baker .Labour gets a negligible vote here at General Elections despite the fact that they attract decent support in areas like Newhaven for local polls. This will clearly change following the coalition. It is estimated that around 80% of Miliband's increased support since 2010 is from disaffected Lib Dems.
It is suggested by a Survation poll for the Mail On Sunday that 45% of Labour voters from 2010 in Clacton would support Douglas Carswell in the forthcoming By Election . In the past this would not even happen even in the heightened atmosphere on a By Election . In 1982 Tory voters in Mitcham and Morden elected Angela Rumbold to oust the Labour to SDP defector Bruce Douglas Mann.
In terms of Scotland my best guess is although the political momentum is with Salmond at the moment that he will just fall short. Many Scots I know like him as a First Minister but would not support outright independence.
A break away could have a major effect on the UK Parliament and the outcome of next year's election. From memory since the Second World War Labour has only won a majority in England and Wales ( the main UK parties do not contest the Northern Irish seats which makes it even more difficult to construct a parliamentary majority) in 1945 ,1966,1997 and 2001.
So the Government's following Labour victories in 1950, 1964,1974 and 2005 all relied on Scottish seats to construct a majority. Given that this is part of the Party's heartlands and the closeness of the polls , the prospect of the Scots seats making a difference next year is quite likely in my view. As @Iagree comments above we would now have a majority Conservative Government of 29 and not a hung parliament .In my view he will also takes seats off Labour next year whatever happens.
This is not to mention the other localised curve balls such as the Greens in Brighton , Respect in Bradford and UKIP many areas. Crucially if (when) Carswell wins Clacton he will do it under their own banner and give them confidence in the dozen or so seats they have targeted in the East of England ,some Northern Labour seats, Essex and Kent. For example Rotherham must be a feasible target for them given their recent local vote and the recent scandal.
All governments since 1979, would have had a workable majority without Scots MPs and the outcomes would have been exactly the same - The 2005 election would have produced a Labour majority of 17 without Scottish votes.
The current government is the only one which would have been affected insomuch as it would have had a majority of 29.
You are correct about 2005 . I had forgotten that there was a reduction of Scottish seats following devolution from 79 to 52 which reduced Labour's dependence on them .
My central argument is that it is unlikely that Labour can win a majority in England and Wales next year. Its support is not as geographically widespread as it was under Tony Blair. However, I think Labour will win a modest majority or be the largest party within a hung parliament with Scotland still contributing its 52 seats.
I think Labour will win a small majority, but with a smaller percentage of the vote that the Tories causing serios legitimacy issues and fresh demands for electoral reform. The Lib Dem share of thr vote will collapse to less than 10% but they will still retain 20-30 seats. UKIP will get 3-5 seats on a farily high (approx 8%) share of the vote.
People should not get too carried away with expectations about UKIP at the General Election - the press are going to be going for them big time, in fact the Tory supporters at The Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph et al are going to be getting confused over whether they should concentrate on pouring buckets of shit over Labour or UKIP.
My bet, with the economy recovering slowly and the dreadful 'wrong' Milliband leading Labour, is Cameron to win a narrow majority in his own right.
It may seem slow when viewed from Australia, but that's not quite the view of those ITK at BCC.
The UK economy will grow faster than expected this year and next, business lobby group the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has predicted.
The BCC now expects the UK economy to grow by 3.2% in 2014, rather than 3.1%.
A stronger labour market and higher expected growth for the second half of the year were two reasons for the more optimistic prediction, the BCC said.
However, the group predicted weaker UK exports, and warned that this could affect long-term growth.
"We must ensure the stellar growth in 2014 is not a flash in the pan," said BCC director general John Longworth. "We need to invest and export more, innovate, and build."
The estimate of 3.2% GDP growth is well above the 2.7% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility - the government's independent fiscal watchdog - made in March.
Earlier this month the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 3.5% from 3.4%.
In the event Scotland votes 'yes' to independance. After the May 2015 General election MP's representing Scottish constituencies will take their seats in Westminster. However when the separation is concluded (predicted to be March 2016) Those MP's will be removed from Westminster. This may well lead to the collapse of the then government whichever party it is and a new General election will be called. If the Scots vote 'no' it doesn't mean no change. The Lib/Lab/Con have all promised further devolution to Scotland as a 'silver medal' Westminster has handed out devolution while continuing to ignore the existance of England. A situation that cannot go on. England must be recognised and i confidently predict it will be, at last. I don't expect to be offered what i want (a parliament for England) But i do expect English votes for English issues. Which is at least a beginning.
Labour may have a presentation issue but their leader is bright and shrewd
Some interesting thoughts on this thread but I just wanted to comment on this point - Ed Milliband is as close to unelectable as the labour party has seen in a long, long time. He's as slimy as Blair ever was but without any of the charisma or force of will that made Blair an effective leader. If Labour goes into the next election with him in charge I honestly cannot see them picking up a majority.
People should not get too carried away with expectations about UKIP at the General Election - the press are going to be going for them big time, in fact the Tory supporters at The Sun, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph et al are going to be getting confused over whether they should concentrate on pouring buckets of shit over Labour or UKIP.
My bet, with the economy recovering slowly and the dreadful 'wrong' Milliband leading Labour, is Cameron to win a narrow majority in his own right.
It may seem slow when viewed from Australia, but that's not quite the view of those ITK at BCC.
The UK economy will grow faster than expected this year and next, business lobby group the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has predicted.
The BCC now expects the UK economy to grow by 3.2% in 2014, rather than 3.1%.
A stronger labour market and higher expected growth for the second half of the year were two reasons for the more optimistic prediction, the BCC said.
However, the group predicted weaker UK exports, and warned that this could affect long-term growth.
"We must ensure the stellar growth in 2014 is not a flash in the pan," said BCC director general John Longworth. "We need to invest and export more, innovate, and build."
The estimate of 3.2% GDP growth is well above the 2.7% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility - the government's independent fiscal watchdog - made in March.
Earlier this month the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 3.5% from 3.4%.
There is no doubt the UK economy is recovering, but it is coming back from a serious recession - a near depression - and whilst the growth may not be "slow" in % terms it may be a while before confidence returns properly, especially outside the south-east.
From what I recall "real" UK income dipped back to 2007 levels because of the GFC so things will take time to get back to where they were.
Regardless, Cameron will be able to cash in on this come next year and ask people if they want to put the recovery at risk by voting for Farage and his motley crew, and I think he'll just about succeed.
Very interesting! So Farage's aim is that both Ukip and the Tories fail at the election, but Ukip fail less badly. Then, from the post-election ashes, the Farage phoenix rises to head up the new, strengthened right wing.
I think that scenario makes 2015 interesting, but 2020 vital.
The possibility of a yes vote in Scotland has led me to start wondering about more trivial things, such as will they still pay as usual for their TV licence, and will it be the BBC ? What is the significance for BRITISH Rail ? How quickly can we build Hadrian's Wall 2 ?
The possibility of a yes vote in Scotland has led me to start wondering about more trivial things, such as will they still pay as usual for their TV licence, and will it be the BBC ? What is the significance for BRITISH Rail ? How quickly can we build Hadrian's Wall 2 ?
British Rail doesn't exist any more!
But there are a few other things that would need to be sorted out:
A Scottish National Health Service Scottish Police Scottish Fire Service The Scottish Air Force The Scottish Army The Scottish Navy Setting, collecting and distributing VAT; income tax; and national insurance A Scottish Intelligence Service Scottish Border Controls Membership of the EU, Nato, the Commonwealth Scottish Road Fund collection and revenue monitoring The status of Status of Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles (and, for that matter, islands like the Falklands, where Scottish soldiers died to keep the islands "British") Welfare - dole money, pensions, tax credits Currency - still a long, long way from being sorted out Designing, printing, administering, authenticating and supplying Scottish passports; and driving licences; and voting records; and National Insurance cards Writing a constitution and the list goes on and on and on...
The possibility of a yes vote in Scotland has led me to start wondering about more trivial things, such as will they still pay as usual for their TV licence, and will it be the BBC ? What is the significance for BRITISH Rail ? How quickly can we build Hadrian's Wall 2 ?
British Rail doesn't exist any more!
But there are a few other things that would need to be sorted out:
A Scottish National Health Service Scottish Police Scottish Fire Service The Scottish Air Force The Scottish Army The Scottish Navy Setting, collecting and distributing VAT; income tax; and national insurance A Scottish Intelligence Service Scottish Border Controls Membership of the EU, Nato, the Commonwealth Scottish Road Fund collection and revenue monitoring The status of Status of Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles (and, for that matter, islands like the Falklands, where Scottish soldiers died to keep the islands "British") Welfare - dole money, pensions, tax credits Currency - still a long, long way from being sorted out Designing, printing, administering, authenticating and supplying Scottish passports; and driving licences; and voting records; and National Insurance cards Writing a constitution and the list goes on and on and on...
Add to that the curious position of the Loyalists in Northern Ireland. They are predominantly of Scottish descent and retain close ties with Scotland but declare themselves loyal to the UK state - to the extent of painting union jacks all over their community areas.
Will they remain 'loyal' to the rest of the UK should Scotland vote for independence or will they become 'loyal' to Scotland and start painting saltires all over the place?
What happens to the SNP if Scotland gets independence?
Well Mexico has the 'Institutional Revolutionary Party' that has held office for more than 70 years since the Mexican revolution of 1910 - currently in a coalition government....
What happens to the SNP if Scotland gets independence?
This is a really good question.
Surely, if they get independence, there's no need for them to continue to exist, so they should disband. And, if they fail to get independence - in a referendum which they have agreed is final and binding - they should disband.
Not only does every single Labour government leave office with unemployment higher than when they came to power but also with both the deficit and debt higher as well.
However high their ideals (and I don't think that necessarily their motives are bad) Labour always represent train crash government, the previous one worse than ever.
Winter of Discontent. And Bankrupt Britain last time round. Nuff said.
But people always forget. Either that or they don't want 'posh people running the country'.
We will continue to go through the same pattern. Labour screw it up. Tories come in to fix. People moan about benefits being cut and posh people running the country. Labour back in. Labour screw it up.
Winter of Discontent. And Bankrupt Britain last time round. Nuff said.
But people always forget. Either that or they don't want 'posh people running the country'.
We will continue to go through the same pattern. Labour screw it up. Tories come in to fix. People moan about benefits being cut and posh people running the country. Labour back in. Labour screw it up.
And repeat.
Well they'll be pretty pissed of if Labour get back in then...
Comments
Add onto this the fact that UKIP are going to have a rag-tag army of lunatic candidates with graveyards full of skeletons in their closets and the media are going to have a field day - just look at the fun they had with them in the Euro/Locals which nobody gives a toss about.
A General Election is the Major Leagues and the microscope is extremely fierce and this is where the amateurs get exposed for being just that, UKIP can't rely solely on the talented but utterly disingenuous Farage, their supporting cast will be hunted down and exposed.
My bet, with the economy recovering slowly and the dreadful 'wrong' Milliband leading Labour, is Cameron to win a narrow majority in his own right.
Obviously it is dangerous in as much as a transient head of steam can be quickly built for this or that reason, but the internet is a force that cannot be ignored. Judging by the speed that the late Stephen Sutton got his message out, and more importantly got action and reaction, then I think politicians will underestimate the internet, and facebook tweets and so forth at their peril.
You are correct about 2005 . I had forgotten that there was a reduction of Scottish seats following devolution from 79 to 52 which reduced Labour's dependence on them .
My central argument is that it is unlikely that Labour can win a majority in England and Wales next year. Its support is not as geographically widespread as it was under Tony Blair. However, I think Labour will win a modest majority or be the largest party within a hung parliament with Scotland still contributing its 52 seats.
The UK economy will grow faster than expected this year and next, business lobby group the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has predicted.
The BCC now expects the UK economy to grow by 3.2% in 2014, rather than 3.1%.
A stronger labour market and higher expected growth for the second half of the year were two reasons for the more optimistic prediction, the BCC said.
However, the group predicted weaker UK exports, and warned that this could affect long-term growth.
"We must ensure the stellar growth in 2014 is not a flash in the pan," said BCC director general John Longworth. "We need to invest and export more, innovate, and build."
The estimate of 3.2% GDP growth is well above the 2.7% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility - the government's independent fiscal watchdog - made in March.
Earlier this month the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 3.5% from 3.4%.
After the May 2015 General election MP's representing Scottish constituencies will take their seats in Westminster. However when the separation is concluded (predicted to be March 2016) Those MP's will be removed from Westminster.
This may well lead to the collapse of the then government whichever party it is and a new General election will be called.
If the Scots vote 'no' it doesn't mean no change. The Lib/Lab/Con have all promised further devolution to Scotland as a 'silver medal'
Westminster has handed out devolution while continuing to ignore the existance of England. A situation that cannot go on. England must be recognised and i confidently predict it will be, at last.
I don't expect to be offered what i want (a parliament for England) But i do expect English votes for English issues. Which is at least a beginning.
From what I recall "real" UK income dipped back to 2007 levels because of the GFC so things will take time to get back to where they were.
Regardless, Cameron will be able to cash in on this come next year and ask people if they want to put the recovery at risk by voting for Farage and his motley crew, and I think he'll just about succeed.
I think that scenario makes 2015 interesting, but 2020 vital.
But there are a few other things that would need to be sorted out:
A Scottish National Health Service
Scottish Police
Scottish Fire Service
The Scottish Air Force
The Scottish Army
The Scottish Navy
Setting, collecting and distributing VAT; income tax; and national insurance
A Scottish Intelligence Service
Scottish Border Controls
Membership of the EU, Nato, the Commonwealth
Scottish Road Fund collection and revenue monitoring
The status of Status of Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles (and, for that matter, islands like the Falklands, where Scottish soldiers died to keep the islands "British")
Welfare - dole money, pensions, tax credits
Currency - still a long, long way from being sorted out
Designing, printing, administering, authenticating and supplying Scottish passports; and driving licences; and voting records; and National Insurance cards
Writing a constitution
and the list goes on and on and on...
Will they remain 'loyal' to the rest of the UK should Scotland vote for independence or will they become 'loyal' to Scotland and start painting saltires all over the place?
Well Mexico has the 'Institutional Revolutionary Party' that has held office for more than 70 years since the Mexican revolution of 1910 - currently in a coalition government....
Surely, if they get independence, there's no need for them to continue to exist, so they should disband. And, if they fail to get independence - in a referendum which they have agreed is final and binding - they should disband.
However high their ideals (and I don't think that necessarily their motives are bad) Labour always represent train crash government, the previous one worse than ever.
But people always forget. Either that or they don't want 'posh people running the country'.
We will continue to go through the same pattern. Labour screw it up. Tories come in to fix. People moan about benefits being cut and posh people running the country. Labour back in. Labour screw it up.
And repeat.
Hence Tories get in when the economies bad, Labour get in when the economies good.
Unemployment was higher in 1992 after 13 years of a Tory Government than it was in 2010 under 13 years of Labour.