6 weeks ago it was a 22% lead for the no's and somehow the polls have turned that dramatically? Don't trust the polls or the people who who take part. "Yes" is the trendy in-fashion thing to say. and the latest polls are still showing 14% undecided (oh yeah! or don't want to say no) 59% No 41% Yes
Source? What is the Yes rating exactly? How likely they are to vote Yes?
Got that off Twitter but it says at the bottom it's from press association, Scottish government and Credit Suisse. Yes rating is strength of yes vote, 10 being where most yes voters are assumed to be.
Think it'll swing more towards no than they are suggesting - don't think those asked in the polls want to admit voting no, but they will.
No 59.7% Yes 40.3%
I dunno. Most of the polls are completed on a computer. Can't see why anyone would be shy about giving their opinion
Maybe because all data are valuable? Pollsters do it to make a profit, not out of the goodness of their heart. I'd never give anything away for free to people who make money out of it.
Think it'll swing more towards no than they are suggesting - don't think those asked in the polls want to admit voting no, but they will.
No 59.7% Yes 40.3%
I dunno. Most of the polls are completed on a computer. Can't see why anyone would be shy about giving their opinion
Maybe because all data are valuable? Pollsters do it to make a profit, not out of the goodness of their heart. I'd never give anything away for free to people who make money out of it.
OK. And "no" voters are more likely to be reluctant to give away their opinions for free than "yes" voters?
Think it'll swing more towards no than they are suggesting - don't think those asked in the polls want to admit voting no, but they will.
No 59.7% Yes 40.3%
I dunno. Most of the polls are completed on a computer. Can't see why anyone would be shy about giving their opinion
Maybe because all data are valuable? Pollsters do it to make a profit, not out of the goodness of their heart. I'd never give anything away for free to people who make money out of it.
OK. And "no" voters are more likely to be reluctant to give away their opinions for free than "yes" voters?
Well, possibly. They will tend to be the individuals with some basic level of intelligence.
By way of example, pollsters had to change their methodology after their hopeless predictions for 1992 general election. It seems that 2% of their polling error was down to more Conservative than Labour voters refusing to give an answer.
Think it'll swing more towards no than they are suggesting - don't think those asked in the polls want to admit voting no, but they will.
No 59.7% Yes 40.3%
I dunno. Most of the polls are completed on a computer. Can't see why anyone would be shy about giving their opinion
Maybe because all data are valuable? Pollsters do it to make a profit, not out of the goodness of their heart. I'd never give anything away for free to people who make money out of it.
OK. And "no" voters are more likely to be reluctant to give away their opinions for free than "yes" voters?
Well, possibly. They will tend to be the individuals with some basic level of intelligence.
By way of example, pollsters had to change their methodology after their hopeless predictions for 1992 general election. It seems that 2% of their polling error was down to more Conservative than Labour voters refusing to give an answer.
Yes, the shy Tory vote. People were embarassed to admit that they intended to vote Tory. But in 1992 all polls were undertaken by telephone, so we go back to my original point that people aren't shy about stating their views anonymously on the internet.
Leaing aside your (evidence-free) assumption that "yes" voters are lessintellgent than "no" voters, this assumes that the more intelligent you are, the less likely you are to give away your time if it might profit someone else. I think that's clutching at straws a bit.
What might be true, however, is that "yes" voters are more enthusistic about sharing their views (there's evidence of this in window posters etc) and that might mean that they are more likely to want to participate in opinion polls. I think that's the most plausible argument (in fact the only one) for saying that the "no" voters are being underestimated in the polls.
Think it'll swing more towards no than they are suggesting - don't think those asked in the polls want to admit voting no, but they will.
No 59.7% Yes 40.3%
I dunno. Most of the polls are completed on a computer. Can't see why anyone would be shy about giving their opinion
Maybe because all data are valuable? Pollsters do it to make a profit, not out of the goodness of their heart. I'd never give anything away for free to people who make money out of it.
OK. And "no" voters are more likely to be reluctant to give away their opinions for free than "yes" voters?
Well, possibly. They will tend to be the individuals with some basic level of intelligence.
By way of example, pollsters had to change their methodology after their hopeless predictions for 1992 general election. It seems that 2% of their polling error was down to more Conservative than Labour voters refusing to give an answer.
Yes, the shy Tory vote. People were embarassed to admit that they intended to vote Tory. But in 1992 all polls were undertaken by telephone, so we go back to my original point that people aren't shy about stating their views anonymously on the internet.
Leaing aside your (evidence-free) assumption that "yes" voters are lessintellgent than "no" voters, this assumes that the more intelligent you are, the less likely you are to give away your time if it might profit someone else. I think that's clutching at straws a bit.
What might be true, however, is that "yes" voters are more enthusistic about sharing their views (there's evidence of this in window posters etc) and that might mean that they are more likely to want to participate in opinion polls. I think that's the most plausible argument (in fact the only one) for saying that the "no" voters are being underestimated in the polls.
The thing is your original statement was "Can't see why anyone would be shy about giving their opinion". Presumably anyone includes both yes and no voters? Hence my original response. You then asked whether no voters would be more reluctant than yes voters, so I tried to give a possible explanation for that too.
As for evidence on the voting intentions of the more vs the less intelligent. Well, we probably only have demographic status to go on. So, let's assume for a moment that the more well off tend to be either more intelligent/better educated and hence have earned more money (or are football players) while also conceding that they are the ones with the most to (potentially) lose. Whatever, the last poll I could find which split by demographics had 43% of ABC1s voting no, while 33% would vote yes and the rest undecided. For C2DEs we have 44% yes and 33% no with the rest undecided. So, yes, call it what you will, more of the more intelligent, better educated, more experienced, richer people seem to believe that they are better off with the status quo. I'd have thought, too, that more of that type of person may be confident enough to tell a pollster or a pollsters computer to go swivel on it. Not because they are shy or embarrassed but for another reason. In the main, pollsters will need to validate and categorise their data. To do this they will not just be asking "yes" or "no" but also "are you in work?" "how much do you earn" "what job do you do" "do you have savings or a mortgage", etc, etc. ABC1s are more likely to feel the questioning intrusive than C2DEs because they have more information they will feel is personal and none of anyone's business.
I am in Glasgow right now getting ready to go out and watch the historic event from the heart of this fine city
I thought all along they will stay within the union
However the amount of youngsters that are wearing the Scottish flag and in favour of leaving I think may swing this the other way
Either way as a democratic process I have gone from not giving a shit to actually thinking that it's a great opportunity for those who it concerns most have the chance to cast a vote that changes the whole UK map potentially
I can't see how England would allow it, at least not in my lifetime. The amount of taxpayers' money, time and resources that has been pissed away on this fiasco cannot possibly justify having a re-run for at least another 100 years. Unless the SNP want to fund it themselves, then no thanks, I'd rather spend the money on something remotely useful.
Comments
59% No 41% Yes
Yes rating is strength of yes vote, 10 being where most yes voters are assumed to be.
Yes 48%
Each of the last four opinion polls have come up with this, a remarkable consistency!
No 59.7%
Yes 40.3%
No 54%
No are the silent majority
Yes 43%
No 56%
Got too pissed on the way to the polling station 1%
Yes 45%
Yes 47%
Och aye? the no.
By way of example, pollsters had to change their methodology after their hopeless predictions for 1992 general election. It seems that 2% of their polling error was down to more Conservative than Labour voters refusing to give an answer.
Yes - 38%
Leaing aside your (evidence-free) assumption that "yes" voters are lessintellgent than "no" voters, this assumes that the more intelligent you are, the less likely you are to give away your time if it might profit someone else. I think that's clutching at straws a bit.
What might be true, however, is that "yes" voters are more enthusistic about sharing their views (there's evidence of this in window posters etc) and that might mean that they are more likely to want to participate in opinion polls. I think that's the most plausible argument (in fact the only one) for saying that the "no" voters are being underestimated in the polls.
Yes 42%
Reckon there are fair few against independence who are too scared to publicly admit it.
Yes - 47.7%
You then asked whether no voters would be more reluctant than yes voters, so I tried to give a possible explanation for that too.
As for evidence on the voting intentions of the more vs the less intelligent. Well, we probably only have demographic status to go on. So, let's assume for a moment that the more well off tend to be either more intelligent/better educated and hence have earned more money (or are football players) while also conceding that they are the ones with the most to (potentially) lose.
Whatever, the last poll I could find which split by demographics had 43% of ABC1s voting no, while 33% would vote yes and the rest undecided. For C2DEs we have 44% yes and 33% no with the rest undecided. So, yes, call it what you will, more of the more intelligent, better educated, more experienced, richer people seem to believe that they are better off with the status quo.
I'd have thought, too, that more of that type of person may be confident enough to tell a pollster or a pollsters computer to go swivel on it. Not because they are shy or embarrassed but for another reason. In the main, pollsters will need to validate and categorise their data. To do this they will not just be asking "yes" or "no" but also "are you in work?" "how much do you earn" "what job do you do" "do you have savings or a mortgage", etc, etc. ABC1s are more likely to feel the questioning intrusive than C2DEs because they have more information they will feel is personal and none of anyone's business.
Yes - 42.7%
Yes 46.2%
I thought all along they will stay within the union
However the amount of youngsters that are wearing the Scottish flag and in favour of leaving I think may swing this the other way
Either way as a democratic process I have gone from not giving a shit to actually thinking that it's a great opportunity for those who it concerns most have the chance to cast a vote that changes the whole UK map potentially
51
49 in favour of leaving
No 48.8
No: 40%
As a fan who lives in Scotland, I'd be stunned if Scotland didn't win independence today.
Yes 30%
Yes - 47.8
...and we do it all again in 5 years time.