From fans on the terraces to managers and pundits, those in football often say that ten games into the season is when the league table starts to take shape, how things will look in May and how confident fans can be of their having a good (or bad) season. I decided I should briefly review the top 10 teams after 10 games from the last 10 Championship seasons to see whether it holds and if it does, to what extent? Having copied and pasted the tables below into the thread, I'm openly inviting other boffins to do some analysis themselves and see if they can pick out any trends or quirks I might miss.
2013/14:
The first thing that strikes is that all three teams who were eventually promoted are 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The majority of other teams held respectable top half finishes aside from Blackpool who slumped to 20th place by the end of the season. Derby sat in a lowly 14th position this time last season to finish 3rd but it wasn't enough to see them take automatics.
2012/13:
This time the teams who were eventually promoted sit 1st, 4th and 10th. Again, there was one team who slid down the table fast as Wolves somehow managed to slide a whopping 20 places to 23rd at the season's end. Four of the top six managed to stay there until all 46 games were played.
2011/12:
Both Southampton and West Ham were promoted this season, with Reading rocketing from 15th position to take the title. All six sides finished in the top half but only the two previously mentioned managed to hold their places until the end of the season: Southampton and West Ham. Middlesbrough fell just short in 7th, Hull to 8th, Brighton to 10th and Derby to 12th.
2010/11:
QPR were top after 10 games and were top after 46 games. The other promoted sides: Norwich and Swansea, were sat in 3rd and 8th respectively. Cardiff clung onto the top six while Watford and Ipswich fell into the bottom half.
2009/10:
Newcastle & WBA occupied the top two spots after 10 games and did so after 46 too. Third placed Preston dropped to 17th by the end of the season while Blackpool capped off a great season to finish 6th and win the play-off final. Other play-off rivals Cardiff, Leicester and Nottm Forest were in 5th, 8th and 14th respectively.
2008/09:
Like the season after it, the top two spots were, after 10 games, occupied by the two clubs that would eventually secure automatic promotion with both Wolves and Birmingham managing to sustain their early season form throughout the season. Eventual play-off winners Burnley were in 9th position going into the month of October while the likes of Plymouth and Coventry dorpped off the pace significantly with Plymouth narrowly avoiding relegation.
2007/08:
This season, the team at top fell to 6th by the end of the season. It was there that Watford lost out to eventual play-off winners Hull City. Three of the top six, including Charlton, fell down the table significantly. Champions West Brom sat just behind the pacemakers in third at this stage seven years ago.
2006/07:
Champions Sunderland suffered an early season slump but soon turned it around to take the title. Birmingham held firm in second place to join them. Derby County jumped from 10th place to win the play-off final while Crystal Palace went in the other direction, falling to 12th.
2005/06:
Like 13/14, the top three clubs finished the season promoted. All top 10 clubs stayed inside the top 15 by the end of the season, with the exception of QPR who suffered a 10 point deduction taking them to the brink of relegation.
2004/05:
Champions Sunderland rose from 5th to claim the title while Reading slipped to 7th and missed out on the play-offs by three points. Runners-up Wigan held their position in 2nd while West Ham were able to win the play-offs after finishing 6th.
Comments
Thing I noticed the other night about this season, and its backed up here.
I cant remember a season (in any division) after 10 games were 1 team doesn't average over 2 points per game (Curbs transfer target)
Which indicates to me this will be an exceptionally tough and close Championship, possibly the toughest ever.
I maybe wrong obviously.
12 x2
13 x1
14 -
15 x2
16 x3
17 x4
18 x3
19 x2
20 x2
21 -
22 x3
23 x6
24 -
25 -
26 x1
27 x1
There are two promotion "sweet spots". The first appears between 16 and 18 points with 10 teams over the last 10 years being promoted after achieving this total. The other, which does not apply to this season's table, is between 22 and 23 points with 9 teams over the last 10 achieving promotion.
The bad news for Norwich, Forest, Watford and Derby is that only 4 teams over the last 10 years have been promoted after achieving 19-20 points from their first ten games.
Plus of course changes in management!
What is very clear is that there are only three clubs with parachute payments in the top ten - so seven (?) placed 11-24. They may have bigger budgets but they also have a whole range of highly paid players, some of whom add no value.
And that's why we will do well to follow the path of Burnley and Derby, and of course CAFC 1994-1998.
When do I get my CL badge? :-)
Looking through for more little bits of info that might be interesting.
Reading won the league title after scoring only 11 goals from their first 10 games in 2011/12.
Burnley are the only team to have won promotion with a negative goal difference at this stage of the season. In the 2008/09 season they had -2 GD after 10 games.
The average amount of goals conceded by a side that went on to win promotion is, after ten games, 11.566..7.
That leaves an average goal difference of 5.4. :-)
thankyou Callum , saddo that i am , that will keep me entertained for weeks!
can you PM me with the method you used to put those tables into the article as I would like to do similar for the Statbank instead of the pdf attatchment.
good article
Wigan, Wolves, Reading, Blackburn, Birmingham (run out?) and Bolton
I would suggest that Blackburn, Bolton, Wigan and Reading are in trouble when the payments run out if they cannot push back up the table.
There's a lot to be said for viewing this as an 18 month play with CAFC growing stronger and more experienced every six months, every window.
Understanding the points required now and at Christmas might help us manage expectations and enjoy the season and results. I note the bookies have moved us down to 11-1 for promotion and us way out for relegation.
Interesting that Coventry were P10 Pts 15 for four consecutive seasons and then headed south.
So 15 points from the next ten - not a big ask!
Perhaps at that point there will be more noises about permanent signings in January?
"Bob Peeters: Hard work behind Charlton Athletic start
Charlton boss Bob Peeters says a hard work ethic is behind their unbeaten start to the Championship season.
The Addicks are two points off the top of the table, having won four and drawn six of their opening 10 games.
"There is no secret in football. Everybody needs to work hard," Peeters told BBC London 94.9.
"If you do that and give your team some structure - what to do when you have the ball and when you lose the ball - you can go far."
The Belgian added: "You have to prepare the players. Physically we are very strong and the players give everything they have.
"It starts off the pitch when you give people structure and they know what the schedule is.
"They know everything about the opponent as well. That is the most important thing - that you give a lot of info to your players so they know what they can expect and what they have to do.
"We play the way we think we can get a result."
Charlton narrowly avoided relegation last season after Jose Riga had replaced fan favourite Chris Powell as manager in March.
However, Riga's contract was not renewed by Addicks owner Roland Duchatelet and the Belgian businessman appointed Peeters in his stead.
With a new-look side, the south east London club have beaten pre-season promotion favourites Derby, Wigan, Watford and Norwich so far in 2014-15.
"It is a tough competition and anything can happen. That is a lesson we need to tell our players," Peeters said.
"We needed to make progress compared to last season, because if you struggle until nearly the last game you need to get other things into your game plan.
"We did brilliant in preparation [pre-season] although the results were not brilliant.
"I think everybody is enjoying this environment and there is a good flow around the team. At this moment we can't be more happy."
Peeters has warned his players not to be complacent ahead of the visit of Birmingham on Saturday.
"Everybody is going to come to The Valley, or if we go away, to beat us because everybody is talking about the 10-game unbeaten run.
"I don't want my players to give even 10% less. They need to give maybe a bit more."
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Very impressive, as always.
That conclusion is interesting and isn't necessarily as obvious as some might imagine. I'd suggest the results reflect three different factors; 1) results over ten games tell us a lot about how good teams are and hence how many points they might get over the remaining thirty six matches, 2) the points gained (or not) over the first ten games can be significant enough to influence final league table position, however good (or bad) a team is and 3) the rather nebulous, but potentially important impact of a good (or bad) start on momentum and confidence.
In our case, our good start has significantly reduced our odds of relegation which have now moved out towards 20/1. In this respect I'd say that the points already in the bag are a significant factor in those odds, though we are obviously a much more resilient side than many had expected and we have positive momentum.
On the other hand, David Whelan and Vincent Tan would have cause for concern if they looked at your post. You'd expect both Cardiff and Wigan to get more points than us over the remainder of the season, but the evidence suggests that they now have a lot to do to compensate for their poor starts. Indeed, their odds of promotion are now no better than ours according to the bookies. My own assessment is that the bookies probably have this wrong, but nevertheless there has been a huge swing in expectations in just ten matches.
Anyway, interesting stuff.