From what I understand Man City need to get a better result than CSKA against Roma and avoid defeat to Roma to qualify for the knock out stages. I assume that this is because goal difference is taken as less important than the results from a 'mini-league' between the teams drawing on points. One thing that is curious and almost a trick of arithmetic is that if Man City had drawn or lost last night, they would have had the same challenge except that they would have had to beat Roma. It does seem a bit unfair that as the only team to beat the best team in the competition (let alone the group) that that result doesn't count in the 'mini-league' that is used. Surely, beating the top side makes them better than the other two rather than the lesser of the teams. And, what's wrong with good old goal difference? Man City's goal difference is -1 whereas Roma and CSKA stand at -4.
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That mini-league could include Man City and CSKA, in which case CSKA would qualify because they took four points from the games between the two sides,
OR Man City, CSKA and Roma, in which case Roma would qualify, on GD, mainly because they beat CSKA 5-1 in Rome,
OR, finally, Man City and Roma.
It's in the latter case that the scenarios are a bit more complex. First, if Man City draw in Rome they can only qualify if Bayern beat CSKA in Munich. If CSKA win they'd qualify, while if the game in Munich were a draw we'd have a three-way tie and Roma would progress.
Second, only a scoring draw would enable Man City to progress. A 0-0 would see Roma go through on away goals in the head to head, with Man City winning on away goals if the score were 2-2 (or more). If the game in Rome is drawn 1-1 then Man City and Roma will be separated on the basis of overall GD with City then qualifying. Roma's 7-1 battering at home to Bayern being the crucial result in that scenario.
Of course, if Man City win in Rome they'll qualify unless CSKA achieve the same result in Munich.
Aguero's winner last night was crucial. Without it they'd have needed a win in Rome and might stil have failed to qualify. They'll now believe, and hope, that a scoring draw in Rome will take them through. If they don't get that, or better, I can't see they have any cause for complaint.
The head to head system seems fair to me. The fact that it seemed to confuse the often irritating Alan Green last night was something of a bonus I felt!!
City will get through now I think, but I can't see them threatening.
As for Arsenal. The cannon fodder of the tournament. Pathetic that Wenger's legacy is the lame, 17 straight seasons they qualify for the group stage.
Rochdale used to be the longest serving club in league 2 until a while back. You don't hear the people of Spotland saying they've done 30 odd consecutive years in league 2.
If someone more savvy than me can put the picture up.
I also heard if City fail to get out the group this year they will be seeded 3rd next season