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Hennessy Gold Cup 2014

Good afternoon all.

Hennessy day tomorrow (Newbury 3pm) and, as usual, it’ll be a gruelling test. Shaping up to be a cracker though.

Masochism it may be after hitting the deck at Aintree but I'm getting straight back in the saddle. Despite the fact that the Hennessy is one of the big staying handicaps that’s tricky from a stats perspective because of the historic success of younger horses (9 of last 14 Hennessy winners were first or second-season chasers), last year's model bagged a small profit so here goes with the tweaked version.

19 are due to line up and my elimination-style stat analysis suggests that the winner should be one of (in race card order):

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 33/1 (SkyBet 5 places)
ROCKY CREEK 11/1 (several 4 places)
SMAD PLACE 7/1
MIDNIGHT PRAYER 20/1 (SkyBet 5 places), 25/1 (several 4 places)

Expect another big run but, yet again, no cigar for bottom-weight MERRY KING 14/1 (SkyBet 5 places). He ticks almost all the boxes but is still a maiden over 3m+ after 9 attempts.

The stat-analysis can’t split the top 4 and, since all should handle the ground, I’ll be having a small interest in all of them (Smad Place win only because of the short price).

On paper, top-weight HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (11-12) still has a fair bit to find on ROCKY CREEK (11-11) on last year’s result but his best form is at this time of year (won first time out in both of the last 2 seasons and tomorrow is his seasonal bow), Venetia Williams is in decent form and I’m not going to discard the longest priced candidate that ticks all the stat-boxes. In support of both of them, 4 of the last 12 winners had been 1st~6th (<20L) in a previous Hennessy.

Alan King is in great form and has 2 good chances in the race, both second season chasers with excellent strike rates and good experience over Newbury’s stiff obstacles.

With 11-10, SMAD PLACE has a lot of weight for a second-term chaser without a Class 1 chase win but Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) carried top-weight of 11-12 to win the Hennessy in their second season over fences. Both had won the RSA Chase on their previous outing; Smad Place was just touched off in the RSA in March, his last run. Bobs Worth matched the consecutive race-double of RSA and Hennessy in 2012, though with 11-06 at Newbury.

MIDNIGHT PRAYER (10-10) may be Alan King’s second string but he has as good a chance as his stable-mate according to the stats after a good win in the 4m amateur riders’ novice chase at Cheltenham in March. Celestial Gold (also a second term chaser) won the Hennessy in 2004 having been a close 2nd in the 4m chase at the preceding Festival.

Best of luck.

Comments

  • Peanuts !! .. I was worried about you .. welcome back .. though you've probably never been gone ((:>)
  • I am having an E/W on 'The Druids Nephew' .. a recent second at Cheltenham in very heavy ground. I also have a liking for 'Merry King', a J J O'Neill bottom weight with McCoy aboard .. we will see
  • Hardly ever missed one of these in the last 20 years. One of the best days out. Not going tomorrow though but we'll be back next year with a coach load from The Long Pond.
  • edited November 2014
    We went to Newbury today. 6 losses, but I won the last on Different Gravy, to get out of jail.

    The going looked heavy to me. Guinness £4.75 a pint.
  • Im on Fingal Bay 9/1 and The Druids Nephew 11/1
  • Peanuts !! .. I was worried about you .. welcome back .. though you've probably never been gone ((:>)

    Just a brief sojourn to recharge the batteries and regain a semblance of sanity, however briefly.
    Good luck Chief.
  • I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.
  • Peanuts !! .. I was worried about you .. welcome back .. though you've probably never been gone ((:>)

    Just a brief sojourn to recharge the batteries and regain a semblance of sanity, however briefly.
    Good luck Chief.
    cheers peanuts and good luck and good health to you too
  • I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Well done mate. Wish I'd followed you in ;-(
  • Peanuts you utter ledge, £10 ew on Houblon at 50s
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  • 1st mid_life crisis
    2nd Yours truly
    3rd Lincsaddick

    Well done mid_life and Lincs.
  • Well done Peanuts! Great tip on HOUBLON DES OBEAUX!!!
  • edited November 2014

    1st mid_life crisis
    2nd Yours truly
    3rd Lincsaddick

    Well done mid_life and Lincs.

    and to you peanuts .. what a terrific finish after all that way in softish ground .. Trevor Hemmings certainly has owned, and still does, some terrific horses
  • Well done Peanuts! Great tip on HOUBLON DES OBEAUX!!!

    May I echo that too PM.
  • CHG said:

    Peanuts you utter ledge, £10 ew on Houblon at 50s

    Cheers and well done Chief.
    I got on too early at 33s and a place didn't quite cover my stakes but a very enjoyable race, as usual.
    Houblon was going so well, even when he was passed I thought he'd get back at Many Clouds. Worthy winner though. Another good 'un for Hemmings.
    Dear old Merry King. What does he need to get home in front in one of these?.....6 miles probably!
    Rocky Creek clearly has a problem.
  • CHG said:

    Peanuts you utter ledge, £10 ew on Houblon at 50s

    Cheers and well done Chief.
    I got on too early at 33s and a place didn't quite cover my stakes but a very enjoyable race, as usual.
    Houblon was going so well, even when he was passed I thought he'd get back at Many Clouds. Worthy winner though. Another good 'un for Hemmings.
    Dear old Merry King. What does he need to get home in front in one of these?.....6 miles probably!
    Rocky Creek clearly has a problem.
    he had bottom weight, never a better chance .. the truth is that probably he is just a tad not good enough .. pity
  • CHG said:

    Peanuts you utter ledge, £10 ew on Houblon at 50s

    Cheers and well done Chief.
    I got on too early at 33s and a place didn't quite cover my stakes but a very enjoyable race, as usual.
    Houblon was going so well, even when he was passed I thought he'd get back at Many Clouds. Worthy winner though. Another good 'un for Hemmings.
    Dear old Merry King. What does he need to get home in front in one of these?.....6 miles probably!
    Rocky Creek clearly has a problem.
    he had bottom weight, never a better chance .. the truth is that probably he is just a tad not good enough .. pity
    Fair point Lincs and you're probably right. Racing UK reports that Jonjo's said that the GN could be a target. He'd be at the bottom of the weights again of course (without any shenanigans from Jonjo!), he acts on a sound surface (might well prefer it) and, as my GN model takes account of near-misses, he might even pop out as a selection, you never know ;o)
  • Well done Peanuts! Great tip on HOUBLON DES OBEAUX!!!

    Well done Peanuts! Great tip on HOUBLON DES OBEAUX!!!

    May I echo that too PM.
    You're too kind Len\'s_little_girl and AA. He ran a blinder but I wish I'd followed mid_life!
  • I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Easy when you're not there.
    I won't reveal to everyone on here where you actually are today.......
  • Never discount a Venetia Williams runner in long distance chases especially on heavier ground
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  • Riviera said:

    I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Easy when you're not there.
    I won't reveal to everyone on here where you actually are today.......
    Blackmail!

  • Riviera said:

    I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Easy when you're not there.
    I won't reveal to everyone on here where you actually are today.......
    Blackmail!

    You should be able to afford the ransom now though!
  • great tipping as always PM, had a tenner ew Houblon.
  • I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Well done mate. Wish I'd followed you in ;-(

    1st mid_life crisis
    2nd Yours truly
    3rd Lincsaddick

    Well done mid_life and Lincs.

    Thanks gents, but I would happily have swapped the winnings for a point!

  • great tipping as always PM, had a tenner ew Houblon.

    Cheers Phil. Nice one.
  • Have only just seen this thread.
    Nice one PM.
    Fancied many clouds but didn't do it. Done monbeg e/w so still showed a profit.
  • I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Well done mate. Wish I'd followed you in ;-(

    1st mid_life crisis
    2nd Yours truly
    3rd Lincsaddick

    Well done mid_life and Lincs.

    Thanks gents, but I would happily have swapped the winnings for a point!

    But you got a point where you were.......
  • Riviera said:

    I'm backing Many Clouds @ 10/1.

    Well done mate. Wish I'd followed you in ;-(

    1st mid_life crisis
    2nd Yours truly
    3rd Lincsaddick

    Well done mid_life and Lincs.

    Thanks gents, but I would happily have swapped the winnings for a point!

    But you got a point where you were.......

    leave it :-)
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