The bookies have us as second favourites to go down. But then they did the same last summer. Their odds are probably based on intelligence and stats - perhaps Squawka (based on Opta) which rated us 20th last season despite the fact we finished 12th.
The top 12 in Squawka are last season's top 10 plus Brighton and Fulham. The doubling of FFP loss limits is bound to be exploited by many of these 12. This is our competition for securing the right players and to attain and then maintain a top eight slot.
So here's the thing: we've released a whole load of players and only Ben Haim had a decent score - he's rated by many... We don't know whether Bulot and Gudmundsson will be with us next time and we don't know the transfer and playing budget. Nor who we might get on loan from Liege.
So for me anything is possible but it's way too early to predict a finish in terms of whether it will be similar to last season or better. What I will predict is that we will sell one or two for big money and that we will sign seven or eight, some for fees, some free and some on loan. The calibre of those replacements will tell us everything we need to know about M.Duchatelet's ambition for our club.
I'd say bet on Charlton staying up - you should get good odds if we are favourites for the drop. For sure stakes going on with the bookies will shift things but June/July transfer activity will also shift perceptions and the odds.
I agree with @kings hill addick - makes no sense at all for RD to sit in this league losing 5-6 million a season. May as well tip in 5 million and try to get the PL cash.
The bookies have us as second favourites to go down. But then they did the same last summer. Their odds are probably based on intelligence and stats - perhaps Squawka (based on Opta) which rated us 20th last season despite the fact we finished 12th.
The top 12 in Squawka are last season's top 10 plus Brighton and Fulham. The doubling of FFP loss limits is bound to be exploited by many of these 12. This is our competition for securing the right players and to attain and then maintain a top eight slot.
So here's the thing: we've released a whole load of players and only Ben Haim had a decent score - he's rated by many... We don't know whether Bulot and Gudmundsson will be with us next time and we don't know the transfer and playing budget. Nor who we might get on loan from Liege.
So for me anything is possible but it's way too early to predict a finish in terms of whether it will be similar to last season or better. What I will predict is that we will sell one or two for big money and that we will sign seven or eight, some for fees, some free and some on loan. The calibre of those replacements will tell us everything we need to know about M.Duchatelet's ambition for our club.
The modelling and method used for initial odds at the start of the season by bookies is quite sophisticated, including a whole range of data, such as goal scoring, defence, ability to defend a lead, previous years' finish, and so on. But, the bookies don't really care so long as their book returns a profit. It is an entirely commercial decision based upon the best data they have, normally taken over the last 3-5 years.
So the starting odds are meaningless - except to the person who has a bet with good odds. They will change as players are bought and sold, games won and lost and, most importantly, people putting on bets. And these changes will happen to make sure that the bookie keeps a good profit. In reality, bookies like some people to win, and win well because that is what keeps people coming back to bet. That is built into the modelling for setting the book. A system where you know you will always lose is one that nobody will try.
I never understand why people get upset about where we (or anyone else) are in the odds. The odds given are a projection, not reality. There really is nothing personal about it. It is only about making the bookie a profit.
The bookies have us as second favourites to go down. But then they did the same last summer. Their odds are probably based on intelligence and stats - perhaps Squawka (based on Opta) which rated us 20th last season despite the fact we finished 12th.
The top 12 in Squawka are last season's top 10 plus Brighton and Fulham. The doubling of FFP loss limits is bound to be exploited by many of these 12. This is our competition for securing the right players and to attain and then maintain a top eight slot.
So here's the thing: we've released a whole load of players and only Ben Haim had a decent score - he's rated by many... We don't know whether Bulot and Gudmundsson will be with us next time and we don't know the transfer and playing budget. Nor who we might get on loan from Liege.
So for me anything is possible but it's way too early to predict a finish in terms of whether it will be similar to last season or better. What I will predict is that we will sell one or two for big money and that we will sign seven or eight, some for fees, some free and some on loan. The calibre of those replacements will tell us everything we need to know about M.Duchatelet's ambition for our club.
I never understand why people get upset about where we (or anyone else) are in the odds. The odds given are a projection, not reality. There really is nothing personal about it. It is only about making the bookie a profit.
Peeters suffered from a small squad, it got worn out and injured as it was asked to play too much, and gaps could not be filled, do same again, and we will get same result IMHO
Looks like Gomez is on his way and would not be surprised if the other two follow that means another year of struggling unless there is reinvestment but for all we know Roly wants to spend the dough on a villa in Spain.....who knows
Comments
The top 12 in Squawka are last season's top 10 plus Brighton and Fulham. The doubling of FFP loss limits is bound to be exploited by many of these 12. This is our competition for securing the right players and to attain and then maintain a top eight slot.
So here's the thing: we've released a whole load of players and only Ben Haim had a decent score - he's rated by many... We don't know whether Bulot and Gudmundsson will be with us next time and we don't know the transfer and playing budget. Nor who we might get on loan from Liege.
So for me anything is possible but it's way too early to predict a finish in terms of whether it will be similar to last season or better. What I will predict is that we will sell one or two for big money and that we will sign seven or eight, some for fees, some free and some on loan. The calibre of those replacements will tell us everything we need to know about M.Duchatelet's ambition for our club.
So the starting odds are meaningless - except to the person who has a bet with good odds. They will change as players are bought and sold, games won and lost and, most importantly, people putting on bets. And these changes will happen to make sure that the bookie keeps a good profit. In reality, bookies like some people to win, and win well because that is what keeps people coming back to bet. That is built into the modelling for setting the book. A system where you know you will always lose is one that nobody will try.
I never understand why people get upset about where we (or anyone else) are in the odds. The odds given are a projection, not reality. There really is nothing personal about it. It is only about making the bookie a profit.