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Boycott Germany

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    Boycott Germany - Ex Yorkshire and England cricketer Geoffrey Boycott travels to Deutschland for a new Channel 4 documentary to discover why cricket has been banned across the country.

    I remember seeing that - "Meine old mutter could haf caught that in 'er pinny"
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    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    Germany balanced its budget last year for the first time in 40 years, and in Euros

    Germany - National Debt 2 Trillion (69% of GDP)
    UK - National Debt 1.6 Trillion (89% of GDP)
    Greece - National Debt 345 Billion (160% of GDP)

    Liken that to mortgages. both Germany and the UK are in positive equity. Greece negative equity - a £200k house with a £320k mortgage!!

    Germany and the UK can sustain that level of debt - Greece cannot - they are paying over 20 billion a year in interest charges alone.
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    cafcfan said:

    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    I'm far from convinced that the "Balance of Payments" deficit has anything to do with anything at all really.

    BMW sells you a car through their appointed agent, they accept your Pounds and (presumably) exchange them for Euros. (Although they might keep them I suppose). So, as long as the German manufacturer believes that it's worth accepting your money and the markets agree (through the foreign exchange rates and some broad sense of "purchasing power parity") then does it matter? My balance of payments deficit with Tesco (other supermarkets are available) runs at about £100 a week but they don't seem to mind and never ask to buy anything back from me.
    I am pretty sure the balance of payments is a significant thing. Tesco does not give you credit does it? If we buy more from 'them' than we sell to 'them', where does the money come from to pay for it?
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    Personally if I was looking to buy an overseas property, how the country in question manipulates the EU for its own selfish needs would not be on my list of important criteria for picking where to buy but maybe I'm the exception.


    That was the point I was making, I took it that PA was implying that people chose to live in France because of their vision of Europe over Germany's.
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    bobmunro said:

    lolwray said:

    Greece has got exactly what it has voted for



    The Germans have very short memories - Marshall Plan???
    The Greeks have already had more debt written ($140 billion) off then all of the Western countries combined received from the Marshall Plan ($17bn or about $137bn when adjusted for inflation). In addition, the Troika has extended maturation dates and minimised interest rates on Greek debt benefitting Greece by tens of billions of dollars more. Finally Greece received 2-6 billion every year since joining the EU in the early 80s for development funding with Germany the largest contributor.

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    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    The Wonga analogy is very far-fetched.

    The yield (interest rate) on UK government 2 year bonds is 0.63%. On German 2 year bonds it is -0.23%. That's right, you have to pay the German Government to look after your money.

    There are no comparable figures for Greek bonds because nobody will buy Greek debt and so it isn't issued. However existing bonds are trading at a yield of more than 26%.

    It's worth remembering that in the 200 years that British governments have been issuing bonds - through the Napoleonic Wars, the Great Depression, two world wars etc, it has never once defaulted on any repayment.

    You also appear to be confusing balance of payments deficits with budget deficits/public spending. The former is undoubtedly an issue for the UK but strangely doesn't seem to be affecting the strength of the pound.

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    Jints said:

    bobmunro said:

    lolwray said:

    Greece has got exactly what it has voted for



    The Germans have very short memories - Marshall Plan???
    The Greeks have already had more debt written ($140 billion) off then all of the Western countries combined received from the Marshall Plan ($17bn or about $137bn when adjusted for inflation). In addition, the Troika has extended maturation dates and minimised interest rates on Greek debt benefitting Greece by tens of billions of dollars more. Finally Greece received 2-6 billion every year since joining the EU in the early 80s for development funding with Germany the largest contributor.

    It was the principle more than the actual figures - i.e. relief from crippling debt.

    They are currently paying 20 billion interest a year on a 345 billion debt - so the thick end of 6%. Just as well then that they did 'minimise' the interest rates.

    I'm not an apologist for the way the Greek economy has been run - but whatever they do with reducing their PSBR by cutting costs and actually collecting taxes, they will never get out of this mess.
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    Jints said:

    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    The Wonga analogy is very far-fetched.

    The yield (interest rate) on UK government 2 year bonds is 0.63%. On German 2 year bonds it is -0.23%. That's right, you have to pay the German Government to look after your money.

    There are no comparable figures for Greek bonds because nobody will buy Greek debt and so it isn't issued. However existing bonds are trading at a yield of more than 26%.

    It's worth remembering that in the 200 years that British governments have been issuing bonds - through the Napoleonic Wars, the Great Depression, two world wars etc, it has never once defaulted on any repayment.

    You also appear to be confusing balance of payments deficits with budget deficits/public spending. The former is undoubtedly an issue for the UK but strangely doesn't seem to be affecting the strength of the pound.

    I take balance of payments to mean how an individual country is doing in its dealings with the other countries. Not connected to how the internal money is divvyed up amongst the internal population.
    If the UK imports stuff from the world for £100, but the world only wants £50's worth of UK stuff. Then the UK is in hock to the world to the tune of £50 isn't it?
    Maybe the money to buy imports grows on a magic tree.
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    seth plum said:


    Maybe the money to buy imports grows on a magic tree.

    A balance of payments deficit is the total sum of imports to a country less the total sum of its exports. It doesn't "owe" the balance to any one. It's usually financed by inward investment (e.g. all those sales of houses to foreign buyers).

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    bobmunro said:


    It was the principle more than the actual figures - i.e. relief from crippling debt.

    They are currently paying 20 billion interest a year on a 345 billion debt - so the thick end of 6%. Just as well then that they did 'minimise' the interest rates.

    I'm not an apologist for the way the Greek economy has been run - but whatever they do with reducing their PSBR by cutting costs and actually collecting taxes, they will never get out of this mess.

    Not sure where you are getting your figures from. Everything I have read says that interest on the debt is about 2.5%. They also get a rebate of that interest if bail out conditions are met.

    I don't disagree that it will be very difficult for Greece to get out of the mess it's in. I just don't think it's Germany's responsibility to sort it our for them.
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    Jints said:

    seth plum said:


    Maybe the money to buy imports grows on a magic tree.

    A balance of payments deficit is the total sum of imports to a country less the total sum of its exports. It doesn't "owe" the balance to any one. It's usually financed by inward investment (e.g. all those sales of houses to foreign buyers).

    If foreign buyers spend foreign money on UK housing it is an import of their money, if their money coming in is less than the money going out it is a deficit, it can't be anything else and it is significant, ask Greece.
    We can't take any moral high ground whilst we are doing the same as Greece, spending beyond our means.
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    edited July 2015
    seth plum said:

    Jints said:

    seth plum said:


    Maybe the money to buy imports grows on a magic tree.

    A balance of payments deficit is the total sum of imports to a country less the total sum of its exports. It doesn't "owe" the balance to any one. It's usually financed by inward investment (e.g. all those sales of houses to foreign buyers).

    If foreign buyers spend foreign money on UK housing it is an import of their money, if their money coming in is less than the money going out it is a deficit, it can't be anything else and it is significant, ask Greece.
    We can't take any moral high ground whilst we are doing the same as Greece, spending beyond our means.
    We're not. We are paying real actual money for goods. If it's generally accepted it's fine. Forget the country thing for a minute and think about it as an individual or firm buying something from another individual or firm. Does it matter that it's in another country? You've paid in folding stuff. I'm not in hock to Jeep just because I bought an American car am I? (Actually, I am cos I'm buying on interest-free credit. On well, I expect the bailiffs will be here any....sorry must go there's a tow truck just arrived...)
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    edited July 2015
    seth plum said:

    Jints said:

    seth plum said:


    Maybe the money to buy imports grows on a magic tree.

    A balance of payments deficit is the total sum of imports to a country less the total sum of its exports. It doesn't "owe" the balance to any one. It's usually financed by inward investment (e.g. all those sales of houses to foreign buyers).

    If foreign buyers spend foreign money on UK housing it is an import of their money, if their money coming in is less than the money going out it is a deficit, it can't be anything else and it is significant, ask Greece.
    We can't take any moral high ground whilst we are doing the same as Greece, spending beyond our means.
    Seth, it's a bit more complicated than just a perceived causal link between balance of payments and budget surplus or deficit. There are things like profit margins of the exporter and the mark up/value-add of imported goods. For example as we all know financial services is one of our biggest exports, but with high margins. This in turn results in jobs, investment, consumer spending, savings, spending savings, tax revenue rises/falls and so on.

    Greece has the problems of not having a big economy that can generate these things - add to that a relatively vast public sector and you have a recipe for disaster.

    If I buy a house with a mortgage (as most people do), or indeed a car with a loan or credit agreement (again which most people do) then it can be argued that I am living beyond my means because I am buying something with money I haven't got. But very few people can buy houses or to a lesser degree cars outright - they need finance. Not a single problem with that as long as that debt can be serviced out of income. We can service that debt, so can Germany - Greece cannot hence it is fair to say they have lived beyond their means.
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    We buy oil from presumably Saudi Arabia and pay in pounds. They buy Mayfair, country estates and weapons from us.
    If we need £100 a year to buy their oil, but they only spend £80 a year back in the UK, where does the other £20 come from?
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    bobmunro said:

    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    Germany balanced its budget last year for the first time in 40 years, and in Euros

    Germany - National Debt 2 Trillion (69% of GDP)
    UK - National Debt 1.6 Trillion (89% of GDP)
    Greece - National Debt 345 Billion (160% of GDP)

    Liken that to mortgages. both Germany and the UK are in positive equity. Greece negative equity - a £200k house with a £320k mortgage!!

    Germany and the UK can sustain that level of debt - Greece cannot - they are paying over 20 billion a year in interest charges alone.
    As GDP is income, opposed to assets I would suggest that a comparable to a mortgage would be that Greece's mortgage is 1.6 times their income/turnover. That is very small when compared to the residential mortgages that are available in the UK at 5 times income.

    The other significant difference is that all individuals have to retire at some point, unless they die before they do and in any event have to recon on dying at some point. A nation doesn't have to factor that in so having 'mortgage' interest payments of £20b with an income (or turnover) of £215b is not the same as having negative equity.

    I don't think you can make comparisons to family budgets at all, save from the suggestion that at some point they need to stop spending what they don't have or else their lines of credit will run out.
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    bobmunro said:

    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    Germany balanced its budget last year for the first time in 40 years, and in Euros

    Germany - National Debt 2 Trillion (69% of GDP)
    UK - National Debt 1.6 Trillion (89% of GDP)
    Greece - National Debt 345 Billion (160% of GDP)

    Liken that to mortgages. both Germany and the UK are in positive equity. Greece negative equity - a £200k house with a £320k mortgage!!

    Germany and the UK can sustain that level of debt - Greece cannot - they are paying over 20 billion a year in interest charges alone.
    As GDP is income, opposed to assets I would suggest that a comparable to a mortgage would be that Greece's mortgage is 1.6 times their income/turnover. That is very small when compared to the residential mortgages that are available in the UK at 5 times income.

    The other significant difference is that all individuals have to retire at some point, unless they die before they do and in any event have to recon on dying at some point. A nation doesn't have to factor that in so having 'mortgage' interest payments of £20b with an income (or turnover) of £215b is not the same as having negative equity.

    I don't think you can make comparisons to family budgets at all, save from the suggestion that at some point they need to stop spending what they don't have or else their lines of credit will run out.
    Well, possibly !

    (Maybe I'll stick to Human Resources and the gambling industry and leave economics alone!!).
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    seth plum said:

    Jints said:

    seth plum said:


    Maybe the money to buy imports grows on a magic tree.

    A balance of payments deficit is the total sum of imports to a country less the total sum of its exports. It doesn't "owe" the balance to any one. It's usually financed by inward investment (e.g. all those sales of houses to foreign buyers).

    If foreign buyers spend foreign money on UK housing it is an import of their money, if their money coming in is less than the money going out it is a deficit, it can't be anything else and it is significant, ask Greece.
    We can't take any moral high ground whilst we are doing the same as Greece, spending beyond our means.
    It doesn't count in the balance of payments figures though. In your later example, the sale of arms to Saudis does count in the figures. The sale of a house in Mayfair to a Saudi citizen does not. The house is not exported. Ditto investment in companies etc.

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    Doesn't count in the figures?
    So as I understand it we can get free oil, or bananas or Audi motorcars then?
    I don't think so?
    We have to pay for the stuff somehow some time. When I say 'we', I mean we as a country, whoever inside the country ends up footing the bill.
    Maybe we can pay for our hundred quids worth of imports, by selling a hundred quids worth of tickets to Morris dancing displays, but at the moment we're not, we are racking up 38 billion quids worth of debt to other countries annually. That's a lot of tourists we need to get in to buy our bed and breakfasts, our cream teas, and tickets to our Morris dancing displays.
    Jints the way you describe it, is as if we get given free stuff from the outside world, but we don't.
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    Halix said:


    Personally if I was looking to buy an overseas property, how the country in question manipulates the EU for its own selfish needs would not be on my list of important criteria for picking where to buy but maybe I'm the exception.

    That was the point I was making, I took it that PA was implying that people chose to live in France because of their vision of Europe over Germany's.

    I wasn't seeking to imply that. I just don't know why some Brits make disparaging remarks about France of the type you made. I also think the Germans are just as good at shaping Europe to their will as the French are. Surely that is what they are currently accused of. What both of them would say is that they each push hard for their view of Europe but respect each other's views; and they wish the Brits would do the same instead of behaving like delinquent kids at the back of the class.

    As for Sangatte, bloody hell. It's us who should sort that out by bringing our benefits into line with France . Why do you think they all want to get across the Channel? Better weather? The warm welcome from the natives??
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    seth plum said:

    Doesn't count in the figures?
    So as I understand it we can get free oil, or bananas or Audi motorcars then?
    I don't think so?
    We have to pay for the stuff somehow some time. When I say 'we', I mean we as a country, whoever inside the country ends up footing the bill.
    Maybe we can pay for our hundred quids worth of imports, by selling a hundred quids worth of tickets to Morris dancing displays, but at the moment we're not, we are racking up 38 billion quids worth of debt to other countries annually. That's a lot of tourists we need to get in to buy our bed and breakfasts, our cream teas, and tickets to our Morris dancing displays.
    Jints the way you describe it, is as if we get given free stuff from the outside world, but we don't.

    So, what happens in your scenario when a UK employee of Deutsche Bank uses their bonus to buy a Audi R8? Does it bankrupt the UK?
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    seth plum said:

    Doesn't count in the figures?
    So as I understand it we can get free oil, or bananas or Audi motorcars then?
    I don't think so?
    We have to pay for the stuff somehow some time. When I say 'we', I mean we as a country, whoever inside the country ends up footing the bill.
    Maybe we can pay for our hundred quids worth of imports, by selling a hundred quids worth of tickets to Morris dancing displays, but at the moment we're not, we are racking up 38 billion quids worth of debt to other countries annually. That's a lot of tourists we need to get in to buy our bed and breakfasts, our cream teas, and tickets to our Morris dancing displays.
    Jints the way you describe it, is as if we get given free stuff from the outside world, but we don't.

    Seth. I'm honestly failing to understand your response. I said that the sale of property to overseas buyers does not count as exports. I'm not sure how that's construed as saying that we don't need to pay for the goods we import.

    The fact is that we have had a structural balance of payments deficits since the 1980s - its lower in recessions and higher in boom times. We should have run out of money as a country years and years ago but we haven't. The only possible explanation for this is that foreign individuals and companies are directly investing in the UK by buying property and companies. When foreign investors get worried, then you have a balance of payments crisis. We used to have them very frequently. The last time was in the mid 1970s when Arab investors in London got nervous and took their money out leading to a sterling crisis. But although the balance of payments deficit has frequently been much worse since then (as a percentage of GDP), we haven't had one in 40 years.

    I'm not sure how much longer it can last but the balance of payment deficit appears to be low on the concerns

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    edited July 2015
    cafcfan said:

    seth plum said:

    Doesn't count in the figures?
    So as I understand it we can get free oil, or bananas or Audi motorcars then?
    I don't think so?
    We have to pay for the stuff somehow some time. When I say 'we', I mean we as a country, whoever inside the country ends up footing the bill.
    Maybe we can pay for our hundred quids worth of imports, by selling a hundred quids worth of tickets to Morris dancing displays, but at the moment we're not, we are racking up 38 billion quids worth of debt to other countries annually. That's a lot of tourists we need to get in to buy our bed and breakfasts, our cream teas, and tickets to our Morris dancing displays.
    Jints the way you describe it, is as if we get given free stuff from the outside world, but we don't.

    So, what happens in your scenario when a UK employee of Deutsche Bank uses their bonus to buy a Audi R8? Does it bankrupt the UK?
    Presumably the UK employee gets paid in pounds, then imports the Audi and has to pay for it if he or she can afford it.
    ...and there is the nub of it, in order to afford it you need the money, the Audi does not come for free. The fact that you work for Deutsche Bank, or First Direct is irrelevant.
    If enough people are buying enough stuff from the outside world, and not selling enough stuff to the outside world, then yes indeedy, it will eventually bankrupt the UK.
    If Greece was oil rich, rather than just yoghurt rich, everybody would want what they have got and money would pour in wouldn't it? Once money has poured in then Greece can keep some by, and spend the rest anywhere and on anything they want, and hey presto they are not running a national balance of payments deficit.
    Greece is running a balance of payments deficit, and so is the UK, so who are we to judge them?
    The only difference is about the amounts, and the ability to pay back.

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    edited July 2015
    The problem is not deficits but the size of Greece's national debt. Governments borrow all the time, and almost all have a national debt. It makes sense to borrow money not just to fill emergency deficits, but to pay for investment that will help make a country more productive. Many people want to lend money to governments because they are safe and secure. If you have a pension, it's a sure bet that some of your savings will have been lent to governments.

    National debt is everything the government has borrowed, not just this year, but in previous years. If a government covers a deficit by borrowing money, then that will increase the national debt. When times are good and tax income is higher than spending, governments can pay back part of the debt and it will come down. That is why a focus on Labours spending without taking account of revenues it received at the time which was lowering the national debt was very selective during the last election.

    The difference between the deficit and the national debt is important. The deficit just shows how the country's finances are doing in any one year. The national debt takes into account what has happened in the past too.

    A country with a smaller national debt can easily run a big deficit for quite a few years. Hence why we were never in danger of being a Greece as was claimed during the election. A country with a massive debt like Greece will find it harder to run a deficit as it will finds it harder to borrow money.

    Most people can't grasp the difference between national debt and running a deficit, but there is a massive one. A strong case can be made that borrowing more money to make yourself more productive is sensible at a time when the cost of borrowing is so incredibly low. This is the economic basis of anti austerity.
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    bobmunro said:

    seth plum said:

    Our balance of payments is running at a deficit £100 billion per year. Maybe that is sustainable, but we lecture others about living beyond their means, looks as if we're doing it too.
    The payday loan analogy is being hoisted, and very few countries are not in hock to Wonga, the UK included. A lot of all this stuff about superiority to Greece smacks of stones in glass houses.

    Germany balanced its budget last year for the first time in 40 years, and in Euros

    Germany - National Debt 2 Trillion (69% of GDP)
    UK - National Debt 1.6 Trillion (89% of GDP)
    Greece - National Debt 345 Billion (160% of GDP)

    Liken that to mortgages. both Germany and the UK are in positive equity. Greece negative equity - a £200k house with a £320k mortgage!!

    Germany and the UK can sustain that level of debt - Greece cannot - they are paying over 20 billion a year in interest charges alone.
    Not the right comparison to mortgages. GDP is annual income (of which a percentage is government revenues and a smaller percentage is the amount left after paying for essential services).
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    edited July 2015

    The bail out of Greece is the worst thing the Germans have done ever.

    That Merkel is the worst German leader in history.


    The worst German leader in history?!? Surely there's a more worthy recipient of that accolade?
    Yeh.

    Otto Von Bismarck and Helmut Kohl were right bastards.

    Bring back Willy Brandt, I say

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    That Merkel is the worst German leader in history.

    Really, the worst?, what about the feller with a stupid mustache and only one testicle?.
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    Halix said:

    Personally would much rather have Germany pulling the strings in Europe than France, they seem much closer to our own vision of europe than the cheese eating surrender monkies.

    Monkees and monkeys I've heard of. Monkies? What are they? Small monks? What are small monks doing running the EU?
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    Addickted said:

    The bail out of Greece is the worst thing the Germans have done ever.

    That Merkel is the worst German leader in history.


    The worst German leader in history?!? Surely there's a more worthy recipient of that accolade?
    Yeh.

    Otto Von Bismarck and Helmut Kohl were right bastards.

    Bring back Willy Brandt, I say

    I'm more of a Konrad Adenauer man myself.
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