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Will Trump become President?

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  • If Putin has his way, Donald bad hair day Trump will be the 45th USA President.
  • Chizz said:

    Huskaris said:

    Trump will win, and it's largely due to the condescending attitudes present on here, the same ones that were present in the brexit referendum. People hate being spoken down to and made to be belittled for their beliefs. I say this as someone who voted remain and would want Clinton to win on balance. Treat people like idiots (even if they are) at your own peril.

    I think you'll find the word you're looking for is patronised, actually.
    You're not having a lol for that. Its a Jimmy Carr joke!
  • Trump is insane - the prospect of him as President is terrifying. He lies constantly, seems to know nothing about world affairs and is incredibly thin-skinned. I don't have a clue why anybody could contemplate putting a madman in charge of the USA.
    He's like a pub bore on steroids who most drinkers would just ignore.
    He is without a doubt the most stupid and poorly educated candidate ever to stand for President - wouldn't surprise me if one of the Kardashians stood next time.
    If he does win who will all the voters blame when he fails to deliver anything?
  • Trump is insane - the prospect of him as President is terrifying. He lies constantly, seems to know nothing about world affairs and is incredibly thin-skinned. I don't have a clue why anybody could contemplate putting a madman in charge of the USA.
    He's like a pub bore on steroids who most drinkers would just ignore.
    He is without a doubt the most stupid and poorly educated candidate ever to stand for President - wouldn't surprise me if one of the Kardashians stood next time.
    If he does win who will all the voters blame when he fails to deliver anything?

    One of the Kardashians won't, but Kanye 2020 is a thing
  • Trump is insane - the prospect of him as President is terrifying. He lies constantly, seems to know nothing about world affairs and is incredibly thin-skinned. I don't have a clue why anybody could contemplate putting a madman in charge of the USA.
    He's like a pub bore on steroids who most drinkers would just ignore.
    He is without a doubt the most stupid and poorly educated candidate ever to stand for President - wouldn't surprise me if one of the Kardashians stood next time.
    If he does win who will all the voters blame when he fails to deliver anything?

    Trump ?

  • Trump is insane - the prospect of him as President is terrifying. He lies constantly, seems to know nothing about world affairs and is incredibly thin-skinned. I don't have a clue why anybody could contemplate putting a madman in charge of the USA.
    He's like a pub bore on steroids who most drinkers would just ignore.
    He is without a doubt the most stupid and poorly educated candidate ever to stand for President - wouldn't surprise me if one of the Kardashians stood next time.
    If he does win who will all the voters blame when he fails to deliver anything?

    Trump ?

    I doubt it - they'll probably turn on minorities. Trump won't get blamed...
  • Chizz said:

    Chizz said:

    Huskaris said:

    Trump will win, and it's largely due to the condescending attitudes present on here, the same ones that were present in the brexit referendum. People hate being spoken down to and made to be belittled for their beliefs. I say this as someone who voted remain and would want Clinton to win on balance. Treat people like idiots (even if they are) at your own peril.

    I think you'll find the word you're looking for is patronised, actually.
    You're not having a lol for that. Its a Jimmy Carr joke!
    *It's

    ;-)
    Haha - you can have a LOL for that!
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  • Trump is insane - the prospect of him as President is terrifying. He lies constantly, seems to know nothing about world affairs and is incredibly thin-skinned. I don't have a clue why anybody could contemplate putting a madman in charge of the USA.
    He's like a pub bore on steroids who most drinkers would just ignore.
    He is without a doubt the most stupid and poorly educated candidate ever to stand for President - wouldn't surprise me if one of the Kardashians stood next time.
    If he does win who will all the voters blame when he fails to deliver anything?

    All part of the American dream....
  • Agreed. Republicans are in a no win situation. If they vote for a madman and he wins, they'll be blamed when it all goes wrong (and SOME of Trumps statements go above and beyond the madness of the Republican party, not as many as you'd hope though). If they vote for him and he loses they'll be marked with having voted for the biggest joke of a candidate every. If they don't vote for him and he loses, they could still just as well be marked "traitors who helped Hillary get into office.'
  • Personally I think even the US voters will eventually come to some sense and Clinton will win but it's going to be close. Not that she represents a great option, she is a hawk as well as being shown to be a liar. Comes to something when your choice is a nutcase or a liar as the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.

    Whatever happened to US politics it hasn't been for the better that's for sure.
  • Personally I think even the US voters will eventually come to some sense and Clinton will win but it's going to be close. Not that she represents a great option, she is a hawk as well as being shown to be a liar. Comes to something when your choice is a nutcase or a liar as the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.

    Whatever happened to US politics it hasn't been for the better that's for sure.

    Yup bring back George double ya and good old Ronnie.
  • Personally I think even the US voters will eventually come to some sense and Clinton will win but it's going to be close. Not that she represents a great option, she is a hawk as well as being shown to be a liar. Comes to something when your choice is a nutcase or a liar as the leader of the most powerful nation on earth.

    Whatever happened to US politics it hasn't been for the better that's for sure.

    I understand why it looks like that, but Presidential candidates are often more centrist than the rest of their party or personality politicians, or both. Trump is clearly the latter, Hillary more of the former while having The Clinton Brand(TM).

    If you were to watch the speeches at the DNC, you would see a group of relatively progressive politicians who have dedicated themselves to actually making things farer in this country. Gay marriage is legal, we have protections for LGTBQ folks which aren't enough, but which are a start that I didn't expect to see so quickly, and we have a party where, some of the leftovers from the early 2000s aside (like Hillary), who are anti-war and pro civil rights and justice. For the first time in America we're talking about prison and criminal justice reform, NOT throwing more people in jail which has been the narrative for god knows how long. Voting restriction acts have been struck down across the board just in the last two weeks.
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  • Trump starting to unravel. The next 3 months will be interesting viewing as he puts his foot in it over and over again. Prominent Republicans starting to distance themselves from him. The Khizr Khan response, 'his' Purple Heart, and his love of babies (but not too much) doing the rounds at the moment.
  • The Clinton camp have so much on him already they could just release a compilation video of his gaffes and offensive statements. No one in their right mind would vote for him, unless they think politics is like the WWF.
  • Just like Hillary has a history, I'm sure Trump does as well. The difference in my opinion is that hers is largely known. You either care about her emails, Behghazi, whatever, or you don't. Never say never, but I'd be surprised if something new emerged. It's going to be rehashing stuff people have largely made there mind up about.

    Trump on the other hand, apart from bankruptcies, is fairly unknown, or at least largely undiscussed. So each new topic is a whole new road to travel. What is in his tax returns? What are his ties to Russia and some dodgy Mafia folk. How did he really make his money? What about the families racist rental policies? There's probably more. The thing is, every time something gets raised, he goes into crazy mode. And while that plays to his base, it's the middle you need to win, and I'm expecting crazy mode to drive them away.
  • http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trumps-slump-deepens-in-polls/?ex_cid=538fb

    One for the anoraks. Clinton's lead has increased pretty drastically in the last week or so. Some of that is the "post convention bounce," and we're still three months away from the election, but these are roughly the numbers I expect we'll see come November. Trump has gone noticeably quiet in the last couple days, but I think his tirades about encouraging Russian hacking and attacking the family of a dead Service Member has turned the narrative on him.

    Also worth noting is that Texas is polling increasingly closely, at least by comparison. I know some who forecast it could go blue in 2020. I think that's a little too soon (and also, it remains to be seen if the current breakdown of the two party system will still be alive in 2020), but it is a state moving left. Same can be said for Georgia. In both cases it's largely down to the growth of the cities.
  • SDAddick said:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trumps-slump-deepens-in-polls/?ex_cid=538fb

    One for the anoraks. Clinton's lead has increased pretty drastically in the last week or so. Some of that is the "post convention bounce," and we're still three months away from the election, but these are roughly the numbers I expect we'll see come November. Trump has gone noticeably quiet in the last couple days, but I think his tirades about encouraging Russian hacking and attacking the family of a dead Service Member has turned the narrative on him.

    Also worth noting is that Texas is polling increasingly closely, at least by comparison. I know some who forecast it could go blue in 2020. I think that's a little too soon (and also, it remains to be seen if the current breakdown of the two party system will still be alive in 2020), but it is a state moving left. Same can be said for Georgia. In both cases it's largely down to the growth of the cities.

    Not due to an influx of Mexicans who generally vote democrat?
  • McBobbin said:

    SDAddick said:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trumps-slump-deepens-in-polls/?ex_cid=538fb

    One for the anoraks. Clinton's lead has increased pretty drastically in the last week or so. Some of that is the "post convention bounce," and we're still three months away from the election, but these are roughly the numbers I expect we'll see come November. Trump has gone noticeably quiet in the last couple days, but I think his tirades about encouraging Russian hacking and attacking the family of a dead Service Member has turned the narrative on him.

    Also worth noting is that Texas is polling increasingly closely, at least by comparison. I know some who forecast it could go blue in 2020. I think that's a little too soon (and also, it remains to be seen if the current breakdown of the two party system will still be alive in 2020), but it is a state moving left. Same can be said for Georgia. In both cases it's largely down to the growth of the cities.

    Not due to an influx of Mexicans who generally vote democrat?
    Okay, so I oversimplified a bit. Yes, some due to influx of Mexicans, though they don't necessarily vote Democrat. The younger generation leans more toward democrat, but they're seen as a demographic "up for grabs." There is also a general migration to Texas, a lot of tech start-ups there (name in Austin, a very liberal city) due to the favorable tax rates.
  • A terrible week for my and most of our views of him yes, but probably a fantastic week for the type of people who vote trump.

    You don't need to win an opinion poll, you need to have more people who are determined to go to vote on the day no matter what and just like brexit, Trump fans are those kind of people... That's why I still think he will win... Clinton might have a dull presidency and definitely wouldn't revolutionionise America but something about Trump just makes me wonder what could happen to the world... Will be exciting though!
  • Huskaris said:

    A terrible week for my and most of our views of him yes, but probably a fantastic week for the type of people who vote trump.

    You don't need to win an opinion poll, you need to have more people who are determined to go to vote on the day no matter what and just like brexit, Trump fans are those kind of people... That's why I still think he will win... Clinton might have a dull presidency and definitely wouldn't revolutionionise America but something about Trump just makes me wonder what could happen to the world... Will be exciting though!

    Under a lot of circumstances I would agree to you. Really, up until last week I would have thought that at this point there's nothing he can say to shock anyone. But criticizing Soldiers is a third rail in America, let alone the parents of a dead soldier. And he continuously doubled down on it as well. He kept going back and attacking the Khans. Conservatives in this country are so adamant on "supporting our troops" (which I find completely misaligned with their policies, but another discussion for another time). So this is a real blow, and I think that was the moment beyond the pale.

    In the wake of those comments, he's come under scrutiny for not supporting the Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (the top Republican elected official), as well as his statement on Russia and various other things. He did finally come out yesterday and endorse Ryan. But as I said above, I think the narrative on him has turned.
  • Also worth noting is that for as inaccurate as pre-election polling and predictions have been in Britain, in the US they're still quite good, especially Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight. I know he was way off on the British election, but there are a lot of factors for that, including the fact that British polls don't seem to get good cross samples. When it comes to the American Presidential election, he can break things out by counties in states like Indiana and North Carolina (as he did in 2008 when he rose to fame) to predict elections.
  • How many times did he say he had SEEN cash being handed over to Iran? FFS, the melon said it AFTER his team had accepted he got it wrong.

    I wouldn't want Trump in charge of my dinner, let alone one of the most powerful countries in the world.
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