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Savings and Investments thread

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  • What's everyone's view on the 'tech bubble'?

    There is definitely a lot of hot, leveraged money in US tech and biotech small caps, which could evaporate very quickly.  There was a mental 60x increase in the price of a stock that had 'Signal' in its' name over two days but turned out to have nothing to do with the not-for-profit messenger app.  All sorts of people following volume momentum strategies.  And now I'm getting spammed by people in their twenties offering to sell me trading courses because they've consistently made money since - wait for it - 2017.

    No doubt a sell off will side-swipe the established players.  But they are under-performing, relatively (Amazon, Apple, Paypal, etc).  And medium term they have huge secular tailwinds.  Short of regulatory interference or a war with China, I just see them continue to post 20% CAGR over the next five years.
  • I have a good friend whose Mum and partner live in a mortgage free house worth £400,000 ish. My friend’s brother works in finance and has kept on about them getting equity release. Anyway, suddenly my friend’s mum (in her 80s) has said how lovely it is that she’s got equity release and can get a new bathroom. No one else in the family consulted - but it is her house. She says, and is delighted, that she’s got £80,000 to spend. The brother has ‘arranged’ this. 
    My friend and her sister are surprised at how little money she’s got. I’m not, her brother has always been a scheming wanker and has probably got his Mum and partner to sign something giving him the house. Am I being cynical?
    She doesn't need to have signed her house over to him, just a straight forward equity release mortgage would net her £80k in that scenario. She could well have been offered more (maximum likely to be around 35% at that age) but perhaps all concerned felt that £80k was ample.

    HOWEVER

    it is strongly recommended that an equity release mortgage is discussed with dependants & beneficiaries of the Estate before signing anything. Also, at age 80, she would be deemed to be financially "vulnerable" and should have had someone with her at any discussion and or meeting. 

    Tour friend should ask to look at the paperwork to see who signed what & what safeguards were put in place. As it happens I am regulated to deal with Equity Release but have only been involved in 2 or 3 over the past 20 years as I find that once I talk through the pros & cons with the WHOLE family they soon realise it's not for them. 
    My BIL parents took one out, many years ago. He’s an only child and didn’t know about it. His dad died about 10 years ago and since then his mum has sold the house and gone to live near to him in sheltered housing. There was a massive pay back  compared to what they had taken from the scheme, so much so that she was limited to what choice of flat she could afford. 
    I would just steer well clear of equity release, full stop.  Will definitely be yet another mis-selling scam of the future and we'll all end up paying for it, as usual.

    If you can't get unsecured credit and need the money, sell the house and downsize.  

    There's not enough competition in that market, as you can see from the rates that they charge which are outrageous for an asset-backed loan.  And I don't think anyone who actually signs those terms can understand the impact of rolling up the interest.

    As for the brother's incentive, I suspect it is either that he has taken some of that cash (80k buys a lot of bathroom) or he's said - I don't need the money, mum, so don't worry about leaving anything to me; which isn't in everyone's interests.

    The lender will have the charge over the house, not the brother.
    Equity Release can be a good idea for some people. Not many I grant you, but for some.

    I have a client who has no dependants or living relatives. Only child, never married, parents long since died. He inherited their Estate about 15 years ago & bought himself a flat as he lived with them & wanted to move to the coast. No job for years & didn't claim unemployment benefit. Lived on his inheritance (with a bit of help from me) & has just now turned 65 & claimed his State Pension. Now has regular income but his capital has all but run out. Flat worth c£200k & that is now 99% of his assets. His Will is made out to 3 charities. Last year I recommended ER to release £30k of capital. Debt will roughly double over the next 15 years, so even by the time he is 80 their is still plenty left for his chosen charities or to pay towards care if needs be.

    As I said - it's a good way for some to release cash built up in their homes. But it's not for the many. 
  • I have a good friend whose Mum and partner live in a mortgage free house worth £400,000 ish. My friend’s brother works in finance and has kept on about them getting equity release. Anyway, suddenly my friend’s mum (in her 80s) has said how lovely it is that she’s got equity release and can get a new bathroom. No one else in the family consulted - but it is her house. She says, and is delighted, that she’s got £80,000 to spend. The brother has ‘arranged’ this. 
    My friend and her sister are surprised at how little money she’s got. I’m not, her brother has always been a scheming wanker and has probably got his Mum and partner to sign something giving him the house. Am I being cynical?
    She doesn't need to have signed her house over to him, just a straight forward equity release mortgage would net her £80k in that scenario. She could well have been offered more (maximum likely to be around 35% at that age) but perhaps all concerned felt that £80k was ample.

    HOWEVER

    it is strongly recommended that an equity release mortgage is discussed with dependants & beneficiaries of the Estate before signing anything. Also, at age 80, she would be deemed to be financially "vulnerable" and should have had someone with her at any discussion and or meeting. 

    Tour friend should ask to look at the paperwork to see who signed what & what safeguards were put in place. As it happens I am regulated to deal with Equity Release but have only been involved in 2 or 3 over the past 20 years as I find that once I talk through the pros & cons with the WHOLE family they soon realise it's not for them. 
    My BIL parents took one out, many years ago. He’s an only child and didn’t know about it. His dad died about 10 years ago and since then his mum has sold the house and gone to live near to him in sheltered housing. There was a massive pay back  compared to what they had taken from the scheme, so much so that she was limited to what choice of flat she could afford. 
    I would just steer well clear of equity release, full stop.  Will definitely be yet another mis-selling scam of the future and we'll all end up paying for it, as usual.

    If you can't get unsecured credit and need the money, sell the house and downsize.  

    There's not enough competition in that market, as you can see from the rates that they charge which are outrageous for an asset-backed loan.  And I don't think anyone who actually signs those terms can understand the impact of rolling up the interest.

    As for the brother's incentive, I suspect it is either that he has taken some of that cash (80k buys a lot of bathroom) or he's said - I don't need the money, mum, so don't worry about leaving anything to me; which isn't in everyone's interests.

    The lender will have the charge over the house, not the brother.
    Knowing what her brother is like he will have arranged it himself (works in finance) and got them to sign what they think is an equity release.

  • I have a good friend whose Mum and partner live in a mortgage free house worth £400,000 ish. My friend’s brother works in finance and has kept on about them getting equity release. Anyway, suddenly my friend’s mum (in her 80s) has said how lovely it is that she’s got equity release and can get a new bathroom. No one else in the family consulted - but it is her house. She says, and is delighted, that she’s got £80,000 to spend. The brother has ‘arranged’ this. 
    My friend and her sister are surprised at how little money she’s got. I’m not, her brother has always been a scheming wanker and has probably got his Mum and partner to sign something giving him the house. Am I being cynical?
    She doesn't need to have signed her house over to him, just a straight forward equity release mortgage would net her £80k in that scenario. She could well have been offered more (maximum likely to be around 35% at that age) but perhaps all concerned felt that £80k was ample.

    HOWEVER

    it is strongly recommended that an equity release mortgage is discussed with dependants & beneficiaries of the Estate before signing anything. Also, at age 80, she would be deemed to be financially "vulnerable" and should have had someone with her at any discussion and or meeting. 

    Tour friend should ask to look at the paperwork to see who signed what & what safeguards were put in place. As it happens I am regulated to deal with Equity Release but have only been involved in 2 or 3 over the past 20 years as I find that once I talk through the pros & cons with the WHOLE family they soon realise it's not for them. 
    My BIL parents took one out, many years ago. He’s an only child and didn’t know about it. His dad died about 10 years ago and since then his mum has sold the house and gone to live near to him in sheltered housing. There was a massive pay back  compared to what they had taken from the scheme, so much so that she was limited to what choice of flat she could afford. 
    I would just steer well clear of equity release, full stop.  Will definitely be yet another mis-selling scam of the future and we'll all end up paying for it, as usual.

    If you can't get unsecured credit and need the money, sell the house and downsize.  

    There's not enough competition in that market, as you can see from the rates that they charge which are outrageous for an asset-backed loan.  And I don't think anyone who actually signs those terms can understand the impact of rolling up the interest.

    As for the brother's incentive, I suspect it is either that he has taken some of that cash (80k buys a lot of bathroom) or he's said - I don't need the money, mum, so don't worry about leaving anything to me; which isn't in everyone's interests.

    The lender will have the charge over the house, not the brother.
    Knowing what her brother is like he will have arranged it himself (works in finance) and got them to sign what they think is an equity release.

    So, would literally sell his own mother then ... nice.
  • I have a good friend whose Mum and partner live in a mortgage free house worth £400,000 ish. My friend’s brother works in finance and has kept on about them getting equity release. Anyway, suddenly my friend’s mum (in her 80s) has said how lovely it is that she’s got equity release and can get a new bathroom. No one else in the family consulted - but it is her house. She says, and is delighted, that she’s got £80,000 to spend. The brother has ‘arranged’ this. 
    My friend and her sister are surprised at how little money she’s got. I’m not, her brother has always been a scheming wanker and has probably got his Mum and partner to sign something giving him the house. Am I being cynical?
    She doesn't need to have signed her house over to him, just a straight forward equity release mortgage would net her £80k in that scenario. She could well have been offered more (maximum likely to be around 35% at that age) but perhaps all concerned felt that £80k was ample.

    HOWEVER

    it is strongly recommended that an equity release mortgage is discussed with dependants & beneficiaries of the Estate before signing anything. Also, at age 80, she would be deemed to be financially "vulnerable" and should have had someone with her at any discussion and or meeting. 

    Tour friend should ask to look at the paperwork to see who signed what & what safeguards were put in place. As it happens I am regulated to deal with Equity Release but have only been involved in 2 or 3 over the past 20 years as I find that once I talk through the pros & cons with the WHOLE family they soon realise it's not for them. 
    My BIL parents took one out, many years ago. He’s an only child and didn’t know about it. His dad died about 10 years ago and since then his mum has sold the house and gone to live near to him in sheltered housing. There was a massive pay back  compared to what they had taken from the scheme, so much so that she was limited to what choice of flat she could afford. 
    I would just steer well clear of equity release, full stop.  Will definitely be yet another mis-selling scam of the future and we'll all end up paying for it, as usual.

    If you can't get unsecured credit and need the money, sell the house and downsize.  

    There's not enough competition in that market, as you can see from the rates that they charge which are outrageous for an asset-backed loan.  And I don't think anyone who actually signs those terms can understand the impact of rolling up the interest.

    As for the brother's incentive, I suspect it is either that he has taken some of that cash (80k buys a lot of bathroom) or he's said - I don't need the money, mum, so don't worry about leaving anything to me; which isn't in everyone's interests.

    The lender will have the charge over the house, not the brother.
    Knowing what her brother is like he will have arranged it himself (works in finance) and got them to sign what they think is an equity release.

    So, would literally sell his own mother then ... nice.
    Definitely. Pre-covid he used to get them to go up from London to Manchester on the train to visit him. No offer of train fare. When they got there he'd take them out food shopping, fill the trolley and let them pay for it. If he and his wife wanted to go out they'd get them to come up all that way to look after the grandkids. Ask for expensive presents for the kids etc etc. His Mum and her partner have very little money. He is a complete tosser IMHO.
  • What's everyone's view on the 'tech bubble'?

    There is definitely a lot of hot, leveraged money in US tech and biotech small caps, which could evaporate very quickly.  There was a mental 60x increase in the price of a stock that had 'Signal' in its' name over two days but turned out to have nothing to do with the not-for-profit messenger app.  All sorts of people following volume momentum strategies.  And now I'm getting spammed by people in their twenties offering to sell me trading courses because they've consistently made money since - wait for it - 2017.

    No doubt a sell off will side-swipe the established players.  But they are under-performing, relatively (Amazon, Apple, Paypal, etc).  And medium term they have huge secular tailwinds.  Short of regulatory interference or a war with China, I just see them continue to post 20% CAGR over the next five years.
    I read a very convincing article which pretty much came to the conclusion you did, but I can't remember where. But likely the FT ;)

    I think the chances of a war with China diminished the moment a bloke whose name I forgot stepped on board AirForce One this afternoon. Regulatory interference is trickier. As a citizen I think it's badly needed re Facebook and Google, and for different reasons Amazon, but to be effective would require at least agreement between Europe and the US, and I don't see that being reached quickly. Personally I will hold, at least this year.

    The problem with tech for broad-brush punters like me (i.e. in funds, rather than directly in shares) is that I probably have more of those FAANGS than I realise, because as well as the two tech funds I hold, their shares will be tucked away in broader based funds, including trackers/passives, but getting to the facts on that is a bit of a slog.
  • https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/a/argo-blockchain-plc-ord

    The "historical performance" actually scares me, more than anything else. 
  • Certainly had you bought a couple of years ago you'd be doing very well. But that's a huge spike in recent times, up over a thousand percent in 3 months, down 20% in a week, it's all about when you bought and then when you got out! 
  • ARB is a great UK story, a company competing against US equivalents. Spike in SP due to a very good, open BoD, Peter Wall the main man, and deciding to get a listing on the OTC and eventually Nasdaq thus opening themselves up to US investors. US Tech stocks fare so much better than FTSE. What they do is mine Bitcoin (simply look for good Bitcoin deals) this year Bitcoin surged, and with ARB’s growth plans the SP surged hugely. Recently they invested significantly in more efficient machines (IT kit) to hunt for better Bitcoin prices and with this capex and Bitcoin faltering share price dropped. 

    Personally I don’t see them going less than 50p with a potential to be £2.00 come the winter, the Biden bounce & Bitcoin becoming evermore able to be used corporately.

    Just my humble opinion of course, I bought at just over 9 pence last summer and sold 80% @ £1.20, holding onto the other 20% now as it’s casino money. 

    These spikes, highs and lows are not uncommon with US tech stocks. To reiterate not a recommendation to buy just a cheap & cheerful summary of the company and recent price movements. 
  • Is it easy to transfer shares from one person to another when ‘gifting’ them? A quick Google search suggests you need to complete a stock transfer form but it’s then a bit unclear what you do with it. 
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  • Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?
  • edited January 2021
    Huskaris said:
    Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?

    ...I think the answer is that HMRC would see huge cash withdrawals from the cash accounts and require that the executors explain where it went. When the executors can't explain where it went, I assume that the HMRC will consider the amounts to have been 'gifted' to persons unknown and, therefore, apply a 40% IHT levy. Makes sense to me given that everyone on here has been telling me that HMRC are always all over everything like a rash and can/will seek bank statements going back 10 years.
  • meldrew66 said:
    Huskaris said:
    Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?

    ...I think the answer is that HMRC would see huge cash withdrawals from the cash accounts and require that the executors explain where it went. When the executors can't explain where it went, I assume that the HMRC will consider the amounts to have been 'gifted' to persons unknown and, therefore, apply a 40% IHT levy. Makes sense to me given that everyone on here has been telling me that HMRC are always all over everything like a rash and can/will seek bank statements going back 10 years.
    Yeah that makes sense. 

    I guess it's not a case of finding that it has gone to someone who should be paying IHT, instead a case of proving that it hasn't gone to someone who should be paying IHT
  • Huskaris said:
    meldrew66 said:
    Huskaris said:
    Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?

    ...I think the answer is that HMRC would see huge cash withdrawals from the cash accounts and require that the executors explain where it went. When the executors can't explain where it went, I assume that the HMRC will consider the amounts to have been 'gifted' to persons unknown and, therefore, apply a 40% IHT levy. Makes sense to me given that everyone on here has been telling me that HMRC are always all over everything like a rash and can/will seek bank statements going back 10 years.
    Yeah that makes sense. 

    I guess it's not a case of finding that it has gone to someone who should be paying IHT, instead a case of proving that it hasn't gone to someone who should be paying IHT
    The onus is on the Executor/ Estate to show where the money is or has gone to. Until then HMRC will want their 40%.
  • meldrew66 said:
    Is it easy to transfer shares from one person to another when ‘gifting’ them? A quick Google search suggests you need to complete a stock transfer form but it’s then a bit unclear what you do with it. 
    I would imagine the solicitor dealing with the Estate deals with it all. In my (limited) experience clients have generally sold the shares & put the money into something else. I've often used a Discretionary Fund Manager (DFM) who offer a "share exchange" facility, who take the shares & sell them on your behalf, with the proceeds going into one of their share portfolios. They can do it all at once or over a period of time, depending if there is any CGT allowance left. In this scenario they usually handle the stock transfer forms & I have sat with a few clients watching them signing them before sending them back to the DFM.
  • meldrew66 said:
    Is it easy to transfer shares from one person to another when ‘gifting’ them? A quick Google search suggests you need to complete a stock transfer form but it’s then a bit unclear what you do with it. 
    Think you will find you then send the Transfer form to the Registrar of the particular company who’s share you are transferring. 
  • Huskaris said:
    meldrew66 said:
    Huskaris said:
    Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?

    ...I think the answer is that HMRC would see huge cash withdrawals from the cash accounts and require that the executors explain where it went. When the executors can't explain where it went, I assume that the HMRC will consider the amounts to have been 'gifted' to persons unknown and, therefore, apply a 40% IHT levy. Makes sense to me given that everyone on here has been telling me that HMRC are always all over everything like a rash and can/will seek bank statements going back 10 years.
    Yeah that makes sense. 

    I guess it's not a case of finding that it has gone to someone who should be paying IHT, instead a case of proving that it hasn't gone to someone who should be paying IHT
    The onus is on the Executor/ Estate to show where the money is or has gone to. Until then HMRC will want their 40%.
    Give them their 40%, it will only be on the cash sent to turn into Bitcoin, it will be worth 50x that within a week  B)
  • It's a bit of a faff (assuming they are paper shares?), if this is to do with your father, it may not be worth it as I 'think' the gift value will be at the time of gift, but they may go down so you'll pay IHT on an amount higher than the now value.

    Been a while since I did it but you needed a CREST transfer form, you may need to open a dealing account etc.

    Just sell them and transfer the cash.
  • edited January 2021
    Rob7Lee said:
    It's a bit of a faff (assuming they are paper shares?), if this is to do with your father, it may not be worth it as I 'think' the gift value will be at the time of gift, but they may go down so you'll pay IHT on an amount higher than the now value.

    Been a while since I did it but you needed a CREST transfer form, you may need to open a dealing account etc.

    Just sell them and transfer the cash.
    This. Holding individual.shares is really a thing of the past. Something that people did mainly for the dividends (my grandfather had a few like M&S, Shell & Unilever) and the dividends supplemented their income - esp in retirement. Things have moved on & now you can hold shares in an ISA (all tax free & within a collective for more diversity) then holding individual shares is really not a great idea imo.
  • Huskaris said:
    Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?
    Funnily enough its actually quite difficult to hide money like that in crypto - unless you use specific coins, even then nearly all centralised exchanges require a KYC when cashing out or cashing in money for or from crypto. The entire point of something like bitcoin is you can literally track every transaction. 
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  • Huskaris said:
    Bizarre though about inheritance tax.... And weaves together a few things.

    What is to stop someone putting all of their cash into a cryptocurrency when they are ill, and then sending that cryptocurrency to someone, who can then cash it in at a later date. It would presumably be incredibly hard to trace?
    Funnily enough its actually quite difficult to hide money like that in crypto - unless you use specific coins, even then nearly all centralised exchanges require a KYC when cashing out or cashing in money for or from crypto. The entire point of something like bitcoin is you can literally track every transaction. 
    I have had cause to buy bitcoin quite a few times and they've never asked me for anything on Coinbase! I think like you said though about KYC, generally much stricter on withdrawals than deposits!
  • bump..................

    FTSE down 80 points (1.2%) at lunchtime today.

    Now hovering around the 6600 level. 2 weeks ago it was at 6870. 
  • Funnily enough was looking this morning, will re-invest this PM what I rebalanced and transferred.
  • Hi all – my friend is moving money out of SJP due to fees and mediocre performing funds over the course of 6 years.  

    I've built my own portfolio up very nicely over the past years through past knowledge, research, ft, chats with friends in finance and excellent pointers on here. 

    I don't feel comfortable "advising" my friend to follow a similar riskier portfolio like mine. At most I would advise placing as much into the Stocks and Share ISA allowance pre and post April, into Managed funds. We know BG Managed has outperformed the market but what other mid risk managed funds would you recommend? 

  • Suggest for starters they look at Vanguard LifeStrategy as a starting point.
  • mendonca said:

    Hi all – my friend is moving money out of SJP due to fees and mediocre performing funds over the course of 6 years.  

    I've built my own portfolio up very nicely over the past years through past knowledge, research, ft, chats with friends in finance and excellent pointers on here. 

    I don't feel comfortable "advising" my friend to follow a similar riskier portfolio like mine. At most I would advise placing as much into the Stocks and Share ISA allowance pre and post April, into Managed funds. We know BG Managed has outperformed the market but what other mid risk managed funds would you recommend? 

    Your "friend" should speak to an IFA who would then asses his/her own individual attitude to risk, taking into account time horizons, & capacity for loss.

    Outside of that, Multi Asset funds run by Liontrust & Royal London are a good start.  
  • Anyone see what the subreddit Wall Street bets are doing? They’ve basically wiped out Melvin Capital, an investment firm, by buying options on GameStop (that Melvin had shorted), a stock for a company clearly on its way down. Hilarious. Rumours are next thing they’re gonna go for is AMC, pump the stock of another failing business.
  • Anyone see what the subreddit Wall Street bets are doing? They’ve basically wiped out Melvin Capital, an investment firm, by buying options on GameStop (that Melvin had shorted), a stock for a company clearly on its way down. Hilarious. Rumours are next thing they’re gonna go for is AMC, pump the stock of another failing business.
    Yup saw that and someone put it on here on the Twitter thread! Don't think they are wiped out though but have lost an awful lot.
  • FTSE100 falling again today. Now at 6560 - down 1.3%. Hoping there is support around the 6500 level

    On a slightly different note - I was watching a webinar about the Lindsell Train UK Equity fund (as I know a few on here hold it in their portfolios). Its mainly a large cap fund & only holds 26 stocks. Nick Train is a bit of a conviction manager & doesn't trade in & out very much. I would say it should be a satellite holding & not a core one as it may buck the market at times & doesn't follow trends.

    HTH.
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