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Savings and Investments thread
Comments
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Salary Sacrifice is a great option, can’t believe I worked with so many at Lloyds Banking Group who didn’t take advantage. Although, will it survive the next Budget, which could target pension advantages.Rob7Lee said:
Fair point re risk levels (if you were in the LS20), the lower risk end is much more difficult I guess (I still tend to go to the higher end of risk levels at the moment but will look to reduce in 3 years time).PragueAddick said:
Fine, but if @hermann held LS20 because he wanted "cautious", what would you have had him do? Bail out when it was -21%, and if so, the old question, into what, that meets the "cautious" criterion?. My point was simply, not to panic and end up selling at the bottom. Fortunately he hasn't, and is about 7% less poor as a result.Rob7Lee said:
But what are other funds up by in that time, many much more than 6 points. My Pension was yesterday back at an all time high.PragueAddick said:@golfaddick
He said what??? Cue mass sale of Vanguard LS 20 and 40 and one unemployed bod 🤣
@hermann Golfie is generally correct. But fact is, LS20 has recovered about 6 points from its Kamikwaze low - which is a reminder not to over-react, especially at your age.Nobody can yet be sure when and how bonds recover and whether the old 60:40 mix is finished - still less what should replace it. My tactic in your shoes would be:
- before selling anything have a plan for what you want to buy with the proceeds
- sell in smaller chunks, on a rising market. Set a target price for each sell.- for the next few months read a lot about how people see fixed interest developing. At the moment I still think fixed interest will have a place as ballast in most portfolios. But especially on this, there are several people on here who understand bonds far better than I do.
BTW - you are correct re HSBC, no catch.
It's also useful that you've posted up the Lifers predictions as this illustrates the dilemma. Let's say @hermann and I sell LS20 today. What shall we buy with it today. ? Currently FTSE 100 is at 7778. What do Lifers expect it to do for the rest of the year? Most of the 38 respondents forecast it to go negative from here. Three whom I consider to have a better feel for markets than i do, forecast a decline of between 9% - 14%. You yourself forecast virtually zero growth. The most optimistic forecast calls for 2.9%.growth
Meanwhile we can pop along to Charter Savings Bank and take out a one year fixed interest bond, backed by the govt. guarantee system, and receive 4.1%.
I'm sure plenty of equities in one form or another are the answer for @hermann in the long term. But for the next 12-18 months? Not necessarily. Certainly, no rush...
I personally don't see the FTSE100 gaining much more momentum, but you still have dividends to consider. I jumped more back into the S&P500 as feel that has potential to regain further, and one of my best performers has been FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF, up 13% since June.
I'll probably salary sacrifice most of my bonus in March as tax efficient and the company tops it up by 10% if you do, will go as high a risk as possible with that, purely on the basis in my twisted mind I'm up nearly 70% before I've even invested it so can go risk heavy.0 -
Get in! I’ve cornered the 8,000 and above market 🥳Rob7Lee said:So these are the entries, do let me know if my butter fingers have put anyone in incorrectly;Name Level Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch 6500 WishIdStayedInThe Pub 6625 bobmunro 6950 oohaahmortimer 7077 meldrew66 7117 Pedro45 7153 Redman 7250 PragueAddick 7300 wwaddick 7350 Thread Killer 7423 Fortune 82nd Minute 7440 Covered End 7508 CAFCWest 7510 Salad 7511 Morboe 7554 cafc7-6htfc 7600 LargeAddick 7647 blackpool72 7650 Addick Addict 7652 guinnessaddick 7658 Jon_CAFC_ 7675 fat man on a moped 7685 RalphMilne 7689 thecat 7710 IdleHans 7745 Bangkokaddick 7767 CharltonKerry 7777 Rob7Lee 7785 Daarrrzzettbum 7800 aitchyaddick 7809 golfaddick 7824 StrikerFirmani 7840 valleynick66 7856 cafcpolo 7893 holyjo 7912 HardyAddick 7913 TheGhostofTomHovi 7966 @TelMc32 8000 2 -
TelMc32 said:
Get in! I’ve cornered the 8,000 and above market 🥳Rob7Lee said:So these are the entries, do let me know if my butter fingers have put anyone in incorrectly;Name Level Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch 6500 WishIdStayedInThe Pub 6625 bobmunro 6950 oohaahmortimer 7077 meldrew66 7117 Pedro45 7153 Redman 7250 PragueAddick 7300 wwaddick 7350 Thread Killer 7423 Fortune 82nd Minute 7440 Covered End 7508 CAFCWest 7510 Salad 7511 Morboe 7554 cafc7-6htfc 7600 LargeAddick 7647 blackpool72 7650 Addick Addict 7652 guinnessaddick 7658 Jon_CAFC_ 7675 fat man on a moped 7685 RalphMilne 7689 thecat 7710 IdleHans 7745 Bangkokaddick 7767 CharltonKerry 7777 Rob7Lee 7785 Daarrrzzettbum 7800 aitchyaddick 7809 golfaddick 7824 StrikerFirmani 7840 valleynick66 7856 cafcpolo 7893 holyjo 7912 HardyAddick 7913 TheGhostofTomHovi 7966 @TelMc32 8000
I'm sure I put up 8001, or was it 6499?
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Forecasting is difficult, particularly when it's about the future :-)Fortune 82nd Minute said:
Interesting that @golfaddick and @WishIdStayedinthePub - 2 guys who seem to know their onions - are at different ends of the spectrum.Rob7Lee said:So these are the entries, do let me know if my butter fingers have put anyone in incorrectly;Name Level Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch 6500 WishIdStayedInThe Pub 6625 bobmunro 6950 oohaahmortimer 7077 meldrew66 7117 Pedro45 7153 Redman 7250 PragueAddick 7300 wwaddick 7350 Thread Killer 7423 Fortune 82nd Minute 7440 Covered End 7508 CAFCWest 7510 Salad 7511 Morboe 7554 cafc7-6htfc 7600 LargeAddick 7647 blackpool72 7650 Addick Addict 7652 guinnessaddick 7658 Jon_CAFC_ 7675 fat man on a moped 7685 RalphMilne 7689 thecat 7710 IdleHans 7745 Bangkokaddick 7767 CharltonKerry 7777 Rob7Lee 7785 Daarrrzzettbum 7800 aitchyaddick 7809 golfaddick 7824 StrikerFirmani 7840 valleynick66 7856 cafcpolo 7893 holyjo 7912 HardyAddick 7913 TheGhostofTomHovi 7966 @TelMc32 8000
Either of you want to admit defeat yet? :-)
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Rumours going around that the Lifetime Allowance could be increased. Not sure if that would go down well with the general public as it favours those with big retirement pots but it's such an unknown amongst a lot of people it would probably fly under the radar. I think the AA needs amending first, especially for those in DB schemes as they have no way of monitoring it's worth & ots only after the end of the tax year can you calculate it. Bonkers really.RaplhMilne said:
Salary Sacrifice is a great option, can’t believe I worked with so many at Lloyds Banking Group who didn’t take advantage. Although, will it survive the next Budget, which could target pension advantages.Rob7Lee said:
Fair point re risk levels (if you were in the LS20), the lower risk end is much more difficult I guess (I still tend to go to the higher end of risk levels at the moment but will look to reduce in 3 years time).PragueAddick said:
Fine, but if @hermann held LS20 because he wanted "cautious", what would you have had him do? Bail out when it was -21%, and if so, the old question, into what, that meets the "cautious" criterion?. My point was simply, not to panic and end up selling at the bottom. Fortunately he hasn't, and is about 7% less poor as a result.Rob7Lee said:
But what are other funds up by in that time, many much more than 6 points. My Pension was yesterday back at an all time high.PragueAddick said:@golfaddick
He said what??? Cue mass sale of Vanguard LS 20 and 40 and one unemployed bod 🤣
@hermann Golfie is generally correct. But fact is, LS20 has recovered about 6 points from its Kamikwaze low - which is a reminder not to over-react, especially at your age.Nobody can yet be sure when and how bonds recover and whether the old 60:40 mix is finished - still less what should replace it. My tactic in your shoes would be:
- before selling anything have a plan for what you want to buy with the proceeds
- sell in smaller chunks, on a rising market. Set a target price for each sell.- for the next few months read a lot about how people see fixed interest developing. At the moment I still think fixed interest will have a place as ballast in most portfolios. But especially on this, there are several people on here who understand bonds far better than I do.
BTW - you are correct re HSBC, no catch.
It's also useful that you've posted up the Lifers predictions as this illustrates the dilemma. Let's say @hermann and I sell LS20 today. What shall we buy with it today. ? Currently FTSE 100 is at 7778. What do Lifers expect it to do for the rest of the year? Most of the 38 respondents forecast it to go negative from here. Three whom I consider to have a better feel for markets than i do, forecast a decline of between 9% - 14%. You yourself forecast virtually zero growth. The most optimistic forecast calls for 2.9%.growth
Meanwhile we can pop along to Charter Savings Bank and take out a one year fixed interest bond, backed by the govt. guarantee system, and receive 4.1%.
I'm sure plenty of equities in one form or another are the answer for @hermann in the long term. But for the next 12-18 months? Not necessarily. Certainly, no rush...
I personally don't see the FTSE100 gaining much more momentum, but you still have dividends to consider. I jumped more back into the S&P500 as feel that has potential to regain further, and one of my best performers has been FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF, up 13% since June.
I'll probably salary sacrifice most of my bonus in March as tax efficient and the company tops it up by 10% if you do, will go as high a risk as possible with that, purely on the basis in my twisted mind I'm up nearly 70% before I've even invested it so can go risk heavy.1 -
Despite my pessimism for the next 6 months, I'm very positive medium term (3-5 years).
There's lots of talk that we are in the middle of a 2001/2 pattern, which would imply about a 50% drop in the US markets from where they are now. That strikes me as overdone. Lots of people are talking about S&P at 2300-2600, which is possible. But so is a rally from here.
I can see the markets reacting badly to any bad news on earnings and forecasts (on individual stocks) and may be being a bit overly bullish on the view that rates will drop soon (we may get a glimpse of that at 7pm tonight).
But I think there are two things that are different to the 2001/2 bubble: (1) information is much more readily available and global markets react that much more quickly to it - there has already been some serious carnage in the very risky assets that are equivalent to late nineties tech stocks (cryptos, SPACs, memes, canabis, etc.). (2) inflation was (mainly) caused by supply chain issues that are now being fixed. As long as wage inflation can be kept under control, I see quality businesses powering through this next 12-18 months. There's also a lot of companies out there with no debt that are trading at historically low PEs - there's a lot of downside priced in.
The 6 month pessimistic view is that markets always over-correct first, but I'm pretty fully invested on the 3-5 year view, slightly hedged (options are cheap right now) and keeping some money on the sides for some short term bargains.1 -
True. I always make the mistake of forgetting that.Rob7Lee said:
Fair point re risk levels (if you were in the LS20), the lower risk end is much more difficult I guess (I still tend to go to the higher end of risk levels at the moment but will look to reduce in 3 years time).PragueAddick said:
Fine, but if @hermann held LS20 because he wanted "cautious", what would you have had him do? Bail out when it was -21%, and if so, the old question, into what, that meets the "cautious" criterion?. My point was simply, not to panic and end up selling at the bottom. Fortunately he hasn't, and is about 7% less poor as a result.Rob7Lee said:
But what are other funds up by in that time, many much more than 6 points. My Pension was yesterday back at an all time high.PragueAddick said:@golfaddick
He said what??? Cue mass sale of Vanguard LS 20 and 40 and one unemployed bod 🤣
@hermann Golfie is generally correct. But fact is, LS20 has recovered about 6 points from its Kamikwaze low - which is a reminder not to over-react, especially at your age.Nobody can yet be sure when and how bonds recover and whether the old 60:40 mix is finished - still less what should replace it. My tactic in your shoes would be:
- before selling anything have a plan for what you want to buy with the proceeds
- sell in smaller chunks, on a rising market. Set a target price for each sell.- for the next few months read a lot about how people see fixed interest developing. At the moment I still think fixed interest will have a place as ballast in most portfolios. But especially on this, there are several people on here who understand bonds far better than I do.
BTW - you are correct re HSBC, no catch.
It's also useful that you've posted up the Lifers predictions as this illustrates the dilemma. Let's say @hermann and I sell LS20 today. What shall we buy with it today. ? Currently FTSE 100 is at 7778. What do Lifers expect it to do for the rest of the year? Most of the 38 respondents forecast it to go negative from here. Three whom I consider to have a better feel for markets than i do, forecast a decline of between 9% - 14%. You yourself forecast virtually zero growth. The most optimistic forecast calls for 2.9%.growth
Meanwhile we can pop along to Charter Savings Bank and take out a one year fixed interest bond, backed by the govt. guarantee system, and receive 4.1%.
I'm sure plenty of equities in one form or another are the answer for @hermann in the long term. But for the next 12-18 months? Not necessarily. Certainly, no rush...
I personally don't see the FTSE100 gaining much more momentum, but you still have dividends to consider. I jumped more back into the S&P500 as feel that has potential to regain further, and one of my best performers has been FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF, up 13% since June.
I'll probably salary sacrifice most of my bonus in March as tax efficient and the company tops it up by 10% if you do, will go as high a risk as possible with that, purely on the basis in my twisted mind I'm up nearly 70% before I've even invested it so can go risk heavy.0 -
Premium Bonds.
Nothing for me or elder daughter, £150 each for Mrs R7L and youngest daughter.0 -
£100 for me, £75 for the missus0
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Do you get told if you haven't won anything?
Just checked on line & there is nothing on there regarding the February draw. Just Dec & Jan.
0 - Sponsored links:
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Download the app.golfaddick said:Do you get told if you haven't won anything?
Just checked on line & there is nothing on there regarding the February draw. Just Dec & Jan.1 -
3 @ £25 & 1 @ £100 for me.1
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£100
Best win so far.0 -
My old man was a clever bloke (got all his A'Levels etc etc) but he always reckoned his most significant "certificates" were the letters from William Hill and Joe Coral closing his accounts!bobmunro said:IdleHans said:A lot of what I read is painting a gloomy picture of the near term prospects for the market. I'm keeping a close eye on my assets which are currently split as property 40% (we will downsize next year and the cash released will be invested), cash 20%, equities 10% and private pensions 30% (effectively equities). My intention is to feed the released cash into equities via ISAs as far as possible but I'm in no rush for that at the moment. The 20k per person limit is a useful brake on the temptation to plunge in. I am more likely to be a seller than a buyer until there's more confidence about anyway. This might take six months, but who knows?
Interest rate decisions today and tomorrow will likely serve to push up instant access rates a little bit, but longer term fixes are unlikely to move much as the rises are largely built in, I think. With inflation falling only very slowly, it's really difficult to identify a sound short term action that will preserve the value of your cash.
My best return over the past 12 months has been my bet365 account, and that might be true for the next 12 too. Sorry bob!
Thanks for letting me know - I'll be having words with the Traders tomorrow.1 -
Checked again.guinnessaddick said:
Download the app.golfaddick said:Do you get told if you haven't won anything?
Just checked on line & there is nothing on there regarding the February draw. Just Dec & Jan.
Not won anything.
Thieving bastards !!!1 -
Likewise!! Maxed out and a big fat ZERO.golfaddick said:
Checked again.guinnessaddick said:
Download the app.golfaddick said:Do you get told if you haven't won anything?
Just checked on line & there is nothing on there regarding the February draw. Just Dec & Jan.
Not won anything.
Thieving bastards !!!0 -
After £250 last month just £25 this month
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Thanks very much for the thoughts everyone, much appreciated. I think for now I'll avoid the temptation to tinker and leave the LS20 portion where it is and keep trickling money into the LS100 each month as I have been - itchy fingers got me into LS20 in the first place and I think leaving things alone until there are clear signals to do otherwise is probably my best bet..!
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At last! After years of winning nothing on premium bonds, this month I've finally won nothing again. Overjoyed!
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£100 (50&2x25) for me, £25 for the wife and £150 for junior this month. Shouldn’t complain.
I see one of this month’s £1m winners only had a £3,000 holding.0 - Sponsored links:
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£150 this month. 2 x £25 and 2 x £50.0
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One of the million pound winners,£3.000 this is their holdings0
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Just 1 x £25 here for Victor AND Margaret combined! Big come down from £175 last month.0
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Big fat zero for Fanny.
Whopping £250 for Mr F ! Best yet !
Las Vegas, here we come !2 -
Nothing for me.
Maybe I should buy some premium bonds.8 -
In other news, Chase Savings account moving up to 3% from 2.7% as of 13 Feb!2
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£500 and £100 for me and £100 plus £50 for wife. Best month ever.2
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@golfaddick.....any funds capture your interest for 2023? Value funds held up well '22, versus growth. Standup which covers both for me has been Royal London Global equity select.0
