Six teams below us?
Three of four relegation spots already set in stone?
One relegation spot left?
We must be safe, right? Wrong. Not even close.
CAFC and those below us have 7-10 matches left. If all teams continue in current form of their last 7-10 to finish out the season, this is what the final Table will look like.
Below, I show each club and their projected final position, their current points as of the end of 3/19, current form (last 7-10 results (wins-draws-losses)) depending on how many they have left, and final projected table points if they continue.
Prepare yourself.... it's scary.
Final Pos....Current Pts..... Form Proj......Final Points
15. Bury.........45..................4-2-1.............59
16. MK Dons..47..................2-3-3.............56
17. Gillingh....45.................3-1-3..............55
18. Oldham...44.................2-4-1...............54
19. Shrewsb..43.................3-2-3...............54
20. CHARLT...47................1-2-4...............52
------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Port V.......41................2-3-5................50
22. Swind.......36................2-1-4...............43
23. Chest.......33................1-3-3................39
24. Covent.....26.................1-1-6...............30
Some notes........
1. At this pace, if everyone stays on form, we will drop 5 places and miss relegation by just two points
2. Every team below us not already "doomed" is playing much better than us.
3. Five of the six teams below us fighting for the final drop-spot are within just 4 points of us in the table right now
4. Port Vale has 2 games in hand and potentially could be equal to us on those alone if they maintain form
5. Five of our last matches are against teams below us, so it's in our hands, win or lose
6. It might come down to our final match against Swindon Town at The Valley
7. We really need 2 wins and 1 tie (7 points) to feel safe given how others are playing
Sorry to add fear to the situation but we are nowhere near safe and in fact are in a lot more danger than we are admitting.
14
Comments
It's unlikely all the teams below us will all go on a decent run or continue decent form. I'm pretty sure teams below us have to play each other, so obviously they can't both get three points from such a game. The teams below us are really are poor and so just as likely to go on a bad run.
Whilst it's going to be closer than it should be we are seemingly playing some decent stuff. I think we have just enough in us to continue picking up the draws and odd win to see us safe before the last game of the season. Well we better bloody be anyway! Here's hoping we don't have to rely on our superior goal difference!
In fact we've just lost to all 3 !
MKD are doing slightly better & even Port Vale have won 2 recent home games. The Gills are performing poorly.
I've said for a long time that 50 points will get you relegated.
As we have the best goal difference, I reckon we could be ok with 52 and should be ok with 53 points.
Our saving grace is having to still play the bottom 3 plus The Gills & MKD.
Our other 2 games are against Peterboro who are in poor form & Southend.
We will be ok if Robinson sticks with 4-4-2 and the players put in the same amount of effort as they have in the last few games. If they don't perform anything could happen.
I reckon we'll stay up, but I've also backed us to get relegated at 40/1.
major changes are needed for next season, probably wont happen and i think it will be of the same as this season.
There lies the problem.
The fact that we are discussing whether or not we are going to be relegated to league two is a fucking disgrace.
Just sell the club and piss off you pair of absolute tossers
Personally, the benchmark is will we finish lower than 14th and so have our worse season in 91 years.
47 ÷ 39 x 46 = 55.435897
But as we cannot get .435897 of a point let's call it 55 or 56 to be positive.
Something like I'm expecting if they don't bugger off in the next few weeks.
http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/77046/in-10-games-time-based-on-form-over-the-last-5-games#latest
Updating mine, 5 games on, and using the last 5 to predict the next 5:
Coventry City - W0 D1 L4 - current points total 26 - Projected points total= 27
Chesterfield - W1 D2 L2 - current point total 33 - Projected points total = 38
Port Vale - W2 D1 L2 - current points total 41 - Projected points total= 48
Swindon Town - W1 D0 L4 - current points total 36 - Projected points total = 39
Oldham - W2 D2 L1 - current points total 44 - Projected points total = 52
Gillingham - W2 D0 L3 - current points total 45 - Projected points total = 51
Bury - W2 D2 L1 - current points total 45 - Projected points total = 53
Northampton W3 D0 L2 - current points total 49 - Projected points total = 58
Shrewsbury W1 D2 L2 - current points total 43 - Projected points total = 48
MK Dons W1 D2 LD - current points total 47 - Projected points total = 52
Charlton W1 D2 L2 - current points total 47 - Projected points total = 52
Which would result in a table that looks like this with two games left:
14 Northampton 58
15 Bury 53
16 Charlton 52
17 MK Dons 52
18 Oldham 52
19 Gillingham 51
20 Shrewsbury 48
21 Port Vale 48
22 Swindon 39
23 Chesterfield 38
24 Coventry 27
Bearing in mind that Port Vale have two games in hand at the moment, and Shrewsbury and MK Dons have one, this looks like Gillingham may be dark horses to take the final relegation spot. Our game against Gillingham looks like a must-win, or at the very least, must not lose.
Still think we will go down on the last day.
The worry has to be if we continue to limp through to the end of this season, there's going to have to be a hell of a change over the summer, plus Robinson's going to have to read of lots of books on management, if we are to be looking for promotion next year.
I hope I'm wrong of course, but rational analysis provides no cause for optimism. Charlton's survival is in its own hands but those hands are really shaky, covered in grease and connected to very weak wrists indeed.
Ultimately finishing 20th is no different from 15th, survival is all that matters. If we start that final fixture against Swindon 3 points or more above 21st place I'll eat my hat.
Keep smilin'
Lovely comment by Stigthundercock, wish I'd said it!
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