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The Takeover Thread - Duchatelet Finally Sells (Jan 2020)

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  • edited September 2018
    T_C_E said:

    jac52 said:

    masicat said:

    I buy and sell businesses for a living. Put simply, businesses for sale are only worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. Although there is a technical definition of ‘ enterprise value’ to include debt etc - if there is no willing buyer at the price then the seller has to decide whether to sell at a lower price than ‘ enterprise value’. An example would be that we just tried to buy Gaucho Restaurants, the fact that it had millions of accumulated debt didn’t stop us offering a price that meant that the sellers were going to have to write off most of that debt.
    The same is true with Roland, he has funded c £64m so far which includes his original cost of acquisition and annual operating losses. He has somehow secured a valuation ( probably from a firm of surveyors/ commercial agents) that the underlying property assets are worth £40m - therefore he is prepared to carry on funding the annual operating losses of c £8-10m but he is holding out for the perceived value of the property.
    In reality, in order to secure a sale he is going to have to write off some of his debt and accept a lower price than £40m. Despite the flimflam club announcements about price agreement it appears fairly clear that neither of the interested parties are prepared to pay his asking price and by the way they are right not to pay £40m or anywhere near that.


    A friend of mine had a stake in Gaucho.

    I had a steak in Gaucho once as well.
    I was going to reply with the Steak gag but I thought with only one "Lol" and the potential flags from the grammar police for the spelling of stake/steak I didnt want to risk it. ;)

    Take a 'lol' from me.
  • Whilst I don't doubt the business case Airman what about the potential of having an extra 5000 bums on seats supporting the team - was that taken into consideration.

    Its probably largely irrelevant post RD but did we not consider in 2011 that an extra potential few thousand fans cheering the team on might make a difference to performance of the team and potential non relegation or promotion?
  • Whilst I don't doubt the business case Airman what about the potential of having an extra 5000 bums on seats supporting the team - was that taken into consideration.

    Its probably largely irrelevant post RD but did we not consider in 2011 that an extra potential few thousand fans cheering the team on might make a difference to performance of the team and potential non relegation or promotion?

    Not sure that would have been a persuasive argument with Messrs Jimenez and Slater... on reflection I’d have to check whether it was 2011 or 2012, but in 2011 it’s hard to see it could have made much difference to performance.

    Of course you’d rather have a bigger crowd but the risk was you reduce the revenue. Given what was going on internally in 2012, if it was then, there is no way they were going to risk hundreds of thousands on boosting crowds.

  • Whilst I don't doubt the business case Airman what about the potential of having an extra 5000 bums on seats supporting the team - was that taken into consideration.

    Its probably largely irrelevant post RD but did we not consider in 2011 that an extra potential few thousand fans cheering the team on might make a difference to performance of the team and potential non relegation or promotion?

    Not sure that would have been a persuasive argument with Messrs Jimenez and Slater... on reflection I’d have to check whether it was 2011 or 2012, but in 2011 it’s hard to see it could have made much difference to performance.

    Of course you’d rather have a bigger crowd but the risk was you reduce the revenue. Given what was going on internally in 2012, if it was then, there is no way they were going to risk hundreds of thousands on boosting crowds.

    I thought it was earlier than that then but can't really remember now, but iirc we did talk about an increase in gates and the possible positive impact of that. There was always getting that difficult balance between increasing gates and increasing income, the aim being to do both but not one at the expense of the other.

    At that time gates were much higher and so the drop in income would have been greater and I think I argued against the idea on those grounds and because once you've cut the price it then becomes much harder to put them up again (assuming that's what you would want to do). As Bradford and to a lesser extent ourselves show, having a large number of season ticket holders doesn't automatically mean more bums on seats nor a more vociferous crowd.

    Anyway, the debates were always, IMHO, quite broad in that they were about long and short term benefit and both crowd size and income hence football for a fiver that was discussed in the same group.
  • So in short no news and no progress still.
  • So in short no news and no progress still.

    No, lots of news
  • Dazzler21 said:

    The funny thing about all of these tweets is none of them know what life with Roland has been like.

    What were NFFC's league table finishes with him in charge? Any relegations?

    Did he stop supplying the youth team with Food and Water?

    Did he sell any sign of academy talent at the first opportunity?

    He sold that young winger Burke I think
  • edited September 2018

    For any buyer of us - surely they can see the potential of the club.
    Getting to the PL would be the obvious pull but maxing out on Corporate would add to the Income.
    We are a little'sleeping giant'

    Except for a couple recently promoted minnows, the majority of season tickets in the PL are about £600-2000 for the best seats and mostly £300-800 for the cheapest, now. Are Addicks prepared for that? I somehow don't think so. Tickets are so much more expensive than the last time CAFC were in the PL. Look at the lowest priced clubs and for the most part, where are they in the table?
    image

    Also, we would have one of the smaller stadiums. Combine the two, our match day revenue would be among the lowest in the PL.
    https://worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-2017-2018/1/

    Which means we would struggle to stay in it. Clubs with low gate receipts typically go down sooner rather than later, which is why Palace and other clubs are desperate to increase their capacity and if necessary, attract a different kind of crowd. The ability to get 35,000+ for every match and charge tourist prices for many of them is not a luxury anymore, it's required.

    This is why that although I agree there is big potential here, what we really need to reach that potential (and keep it) in my opinion is an owner willing to spend £150-250M like Tony Bloom did on Brighton.

    Getting out of the Championship now requires clubs to lose the max allowable each year and often more the last year. If it were to take even just 4 years, that's £50M. If it takes seven, that's £90M. Unlike L1, the Championship has 3 new clubs every year getting parachute payments that are twice more than CAFC's entire turnover would be in that division. And often 4-8 clubs at any one time getting some form of parachutes. It's hell to get out of the Championship. Wolves lost £50-60M just the last two seasons to get out, breaching rules. Some think that is now the only way to get out, as there will always be a few clubs each year willing to role the dice. How to compete?

    The Valley by all accounts needs upgrades. Getting approvals, plans, plans approved, construction, cost overruns, etc.... at least another £75M over a decade and maybe£100M. Everton decided it would cost less per seat to just build a new stadium than re-develop Goodison due to proximity of houses and streets and the difficulty of approving one stand change at a time, plus the lost revenue each year a stand is under construction, which cannot be tolerated.

    Palace are renovating theirs. Arsenal have a newer one. Chelsea has approval for one. Shahid Khan is going to buy Wembley and yeah, he is eventually going to be tempted to move there. Palace is getting £100M to re-develop Selhurst and you just know the real price will be £150M+ by the end. West Ham now get attendances of 56,000 now, even in a crap stadium. You may all love the Valley, but it is not going to cut the mustard in the PL, as is.

    The training ground facilities themselves are not quality PL level, even if the pitches are. The proposed new building is at best "okay" for the PL and it is not under construction yet. Even MLS teams have facilities now that dwarf those of CAFC. Wolves spent £55M to get theirs to Category One and that was a few years ago. I think we need another £30M+ to get it to a level that will attract international talent. We won't survive in the PL without such an ability.

    So...... if we don't get an owner who can spend this kind of money without cringing, I think we have very long, hard road ahead. As in a generation or more. More smaller clubs will get sold to rich owners in that period who won't bat an eyelash at spending what is necessary to get to the PL.

    This is what worries me about the Aussies now. They seem scared by the £15M gap between their offer and Roland's wishes. If they can't deal with that, then how will they deal with the inevitable costs to get us to the PL? And even more... to stay there more than 1-2 seasons?



  • Next tour of the Valley is due with the Venkys being shown around ;)
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  • Not that I particularly want Fawaz but he isn't as bad as Roland, don't care what any Forest fan says. We aren't in control at the end of the day and it is definitely the devil I don't know for me.

    Yea at least he watched Forest games week in week out! How many has Roland been too?? One isn't it
  • edited September 2018
    uie2 said:

    Not that I particularly want Fawaz but he isn't as bad as Roland, don't care what any Forest fan says. We aren't in control at the end of the day and it is definitely the devil I don't know for me.

    Yea at least he watched Forest games week in week out! How many has Roland been too?? One isn't it
    How many matches does Sheik Mansour attend? How many times does ManU's owner fly in from the US?

    I don't care if the owner EVER attends. I care about if they have ambition and the money to make the vision happen and the drive to put the pieces in place for long term success.

    Fawaz fails on those fronts. Yes, RD might be worse, but Fawaz is not the answer and we need to not settle for him.
  • The last six pages of this thread got me power-scrolling again, only stopping for big likes on posts.
    Where do you boys find the time!?
  • edited September 2018
    uie2 said:

    Next tour of the Valley is due with the Venkys being shown around ;)

    They wouldn't dare. They're too chicken


  • uie2 said:

    Not that I particularly want Fawaz but he isn't as bad as Roland, don't care what any Forest fan says. We aren't in control at the end of the day and it is definitely the devil I don't know for me.

    Yea at least he watched Forest games week in week out! How many has Roland been too?? One isn't it
    How many matches does Sheik Mansour attend? How many times does ManU's owner fly in from the US?

    I don't care if the owner EVER attends. I care about if they have ambition and the money to make the vision happen and the drive to put the pieces in place for long term success.

    Fawaz fails on those fronts. Yes, RD might be worse, but Fawaz is not the answer and we need to not settle for him.
    The Man. City owners have copied Roland's model of running clubs. He said so in his interview.

    I wonder if they asked for his advice ?


  • uie2 said:

    Not that I particularly want Fawaz but he isn't as bad as Roland, don't care what any Forest fan says. We aren't in control at the end of the day and it is definitely the devil I don't know for me.

    Yea at least he watched Forest games week in week out! How many has Roland been too?? One isn't it
    How many matches does Sheik Mansour attend? How many times does ManU's owner fly in from the US?

    I don't care if the owner EVER attends. I care about if they have ambition and the money to make the vision happen and the drive to put the pieces in place for long term success.

    Fawaz fails on those fronts. Yes, RD might be worse, but Fawaz is not the answer and we need to not settle for him.
    The Man. City owners have copied Roland's model of running clubs. He said so in his interview.

    With one exception

  • Thanks for the feedback

    I’m pretty certain that if I was a fan of the club and wanted to take us to the next level I would pretty much let everyone in for nothing

    £3.2m is great, potentially 25,000 crowds supporting the team is better

    Obviously i am at the wider end of the mark both sides but surely any Saudi/Rich person would just try to fill the ground in the first instance
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  • Thanks for the feedback

    I’m pretty certain that if I was a fan of the club and wanted to take us to the next level I would pretty much let everyone in for nothing

    £3.2m is great, potentially 25,000 crowds supporting the team is better

    Obviously i am at the wider end of the mark both sides but surely any Saudi/Rich person would just try to fill the ground in the first instance

    You wouldn’t get 25,000 every week if it was free right now. A change of ownership will help but we have a lot of ground to recover.
    Ain’t that the truth.
  • For any buyer of us - surely they can see the potential of the club.
    Getting to the PL would be the obvious pull but maxing out on Corporate would add to the Income.
    We are a little'sleeping giant'

    Except for a couple recently promoted minnows, the majority of season tickets in the PL are about £600-2000 for the best seats and mostly £300-800 for the cheapest, now. Are Addicks prepared for that? I somehow don't think so. Tickets are so much more expensive than the last time CAFC were in the PL. Look at the lowest priced clubs and for the most part, where are they in the table?
    image

    Also, we would have one of the smaller stadiums. Combine the two, our match day revenue would be among the lowest in the PL.
    https://worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-2017-2018/1/

    Which means we would struggle to stay in it. Clubs with low gate receipts typically go down sooner rather than later, which is why Palace and other clubs are desperate to increase their capacity and if necessary, attract a different kind of crowd. The ability to get 35,000+ for every match and charge tourist prices for many of them is not a luxury anymore, it's required.

    This is why that although I agree there is big potential here, what we really need to reach that potential (and keep it) in my opinion is an owner willing to spend £150-250M like Tony Bloom did on Brighton.

    Getting out of the Championship now requires clubs to lose the max allowable each year and often more the last year. If it were to take even just 4 years, that's £50M. If it takes seven, that's £90M. Unlike L1, the Championship has 3 new clubs every year getting parachute payments that are twice more than CAFC's entire turnover would be in that division. And often 4-8 clubs at any one time getting some form of parachutes. It's hell to get out of the Championship. Wolves lost £50-60M just the last two seasons to get out, breaching rules. Some think that is now the only way to get out, as there will always be a few clubs each year willing to role the dice. How to compete?

    The Valley by all accounts needs upgrades. Getting approvals, plans, plans approved, construction, cost overruns, etc.... at least another £75M over a decade and maybe£100M. Everton decided it would cost less per seat to just build a new stadium than re-develop Goodison due to proximity of houses and streets and the difficulty of approving one stand change at a time, plus the lost revenue each year a stand is under construction, which cannot be tolerated.

    Palace are renovating theirs. Arsenal have a newer one. Chelsea has approval for one. Shahid Khan is going to buy Wembley and yeah, he is eventually going to be tempted to move there. Palace is getting £100M to re-develop Selhurst and you just know the real price will be £150M+ by the end. West Ham now get attendances of 56,000 now, even in a crap stadium. You may all love the Valley, but it is not going to cut the mustard in the PL, as is.

    The training ground facilities themselves are not quality PL level, even if the pitches are. The proposed new building is at best "okay" for the PL and it is not under construction yet. Even MLS teams have facilities now that dwarf those of CAFC. Wolves spent £55M to get theirs to Category One and that was a few years ago. I think we need another £30M+ to get it to a level that will attract international talent. We won't survive in the PL without such an ability.

    So...... if we don't get an owner who can spend this kind of money without cringing, I think we have very long, hard road ahead. As in a generation or more. More smaller clubs will get sold to rich owners in that period who won't bat an eyelash at spending what is necessary to get to the PL.

    This is what worries me about the Aussies now. They seem scared by the £15M gap between their offer and Roland's wishes. If they can't deal with that, then how will they deal with the inevitable costs to get us to the PL? And even more... to stay there more than 1-2 seasons?



    Christ that is depressing, we really shit the bed didn't we.

    Based on that we can only sell to a platinum club member, billionaire, prepared to throw money at it.

    And there are many clubs far more attractive than us in our current state.

    Bad times.

  • Page 1300 looms and it only seems like yesterday (in best Year 2000 worry mode) that page 1000 would break CL....
  • I’m not going to quote the long posts above about how we’re doomed if we make it to the PL and don’t have mega rich owners. Season tickets don’t have to go up to eye watering levels. They can stay at a reasonable price to fill the bulk of the ground and thereby reduce the number available on a casual match basis. Those tickets can be sold at a premium if the match warrants it (Man Utd, Arsenal Chelsea etc) otherwise it’s the tv and other ancillary income that is what the club would survive and thrive on
  • Why am I getting a Zabeel ad on this thread?
  • I’m not going to quote the long posts above about how we’re doomed if we make it to the PL and don’t have mega rich owners. Season tickets don’t have to go up to eye watering levels. They can stay at a reasonable price to fill the bulk of the ground and thereby reduce the number available on a casual match basis. Those tickets can be sold at a premium if the match warrants it (Man Utd, Arsenal Chelsea etc) otherwise it’s the tv and other ancillary income that is what the club would survive and thrive on

    I agree.

    But to be honest I prefer us to be in the Championship. I also think it is a much better product than it is treated as.

    My 16 yr old finds the Prem a bit boring and is very selective in the games he will watch. Always watches the games from the Championship though as he says they are more competitive. Also interesting is that when he and his mates play FIFA they set up as clubs from lower leagues. (It is why he has an affinity with Burnley, and because Deeney was so successful for him, Watford. Wanted his name on his Charlton top ffs).

    Now more live games are being shown it will be interesting to see if the audience will grow.
  • Croydon said:

    Redrobo said:

    I’m not going to quote the long posts above about how we’re doomed if we make it to the PL and don’t have mega rich owners. Season tickets don’t have to go up to eye watering levels. They can stay at a reasonable price to fill the bulk of the ground and thereby reduce the number available on a casual match basis. Those tickets can be sold at a premium if the match warrants it (Man Utd, Arsenal Chelsea etc) otherwise it’s the tv and other ancillary income that is what the club would survive and thrive on

    I agree.

    But to be honest I prefer us to be in the Championship. I also think it is a much better product than it is treated as.

    My 16 yr old finds the Prem a bit boring and is very selective in the games he will watch. Always watches the games from the Championship though as he says they are more competitive. Also interesting is that when he and his mates play FIFA they set up as clubs from lower leagues. (It is why he has an affinity with Burnley, and because Deeney was so successful for him, Watford. Wanted his name on his Charlton top ffs).

    Now more live games are being shown it will be interesting to see if the audience will grow.
    Fuck the Premiership. That league and Sky are everything wrong with modern football. The Championship is competitive, has some big, historic names and you won't have 7+ games a season moved to Sunday at midday just so some armchair Bournemouth fan can watch his team play on the telly.
    Oil agree.

    Oh but the armchair fan from Bournemouth supports Man.U.
  • I’m not going to quote the long posts above about how we’re doomed if we make it to the PL and don’t have mega rich owners. Season tickets don’t have to go up to eye watering levels. They can stay at a reasonable price to fill the bulk of the ground and thereby reduce the number available on a casual match basis. Those tickets can be sold at a premium if the match warrants it (Man Utd, Arsenal Chelsea etc) otherwise it’s the tv and other ancillary income that is what the club would survive and thrive on

    Completely agree. The TV money dominates so much that according to this article on the BBC website. 11 of the 20 PL teams in 2016/2017 could have made a profit without selling a single ticket! So they could sell S/Ts at a reasonable price - but, of course, they don't as many of them have a waiting list. To me, and most I would think, seeing the team you support live will always be better than the TV, so they will never be short of people willing to pay. Seems a rip-off of their fans when some (like Arsenal) charge excessive prices though.
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!