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The General Election - June 8th 2017

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  • This is not Red_in_SE8
  • razil said:

    Those arguing about deterrents should consider as mentioned previously the plight of Ukraine who gave up their weapons to their neighbour - that same neighbour might just have thought twice before invading and occupying Ukraines strategic southern port, if that had not been the case. The same would apply to emerging nuclear states like Iran, Pakistan and North Korea, who might think twice about slinging a nuke at us.

    Said it before several weeks ago but you need to look at the Budapest Memorandum. Not as straight forward as it seems.
  • Leuth said:

    Missed the Theresa May part but I must say Corbyn at least believes in what he says which makes a change for politics. In my opinion if he didn't have himself surrounded with people like Abbott and McDonnell people would be much more inclined to vote for him.

    He's thrown a bit of a wobbly on the nuclear weapons questions and as someone said earlier he answers every question in a vague way by expanding the answer in to other things, as I type this he's completely dodged the blokes questions about business' moving abroad (this is one of my big worries)

    Corporation tax at 26% still lower than the other G7 countries. There, answered
    That literally hasn't answered the question he was asked..
    Didn't it? The suggestion was that if Corporation Tax was raised, companies would move to other countries. The response was that Labour's proposal to raise Corporation Tax would still result in the UK having the lowest rates of the other G7 countries, and with CT still being lower that it was in 2010. So, if companies did decide to leave the UK, it would clearly be for other reasons.
    Why couldn't they move to Ireland?
    Do they want to do business in our very wealthy economy? We are about to leave the EU after all and about to negotiate a lot of new trade deals.
    Indeed. However, it'd be easier, and more profitable, to move their registered head office to Ireland and pay corporation tax there. Everything else stays in place for them.

    It seems that those that were fretting about business leaving the UK as a result of Brexit, are now advocating trying to further push them away.
    This has been discussed loads of times. If you run a successful business in the U.K. lets say a chain of car washes. You claim your HO is in Dublin, but how are you going to get your revenue and costs into the Dublin company's books? Send an invoice for " management services" or following the Starbucks model " brand use" ? HMRC will be down on you like a ton of Millwall Bricks.

    Why then are they letting Google and Facebook get away with it? Well, you tell me. Incompetence and lack of resource, I would suggest though.

    Actually it would be interesting to hear from @DamoNorthStand on this. His "boss", Sir Martin Sorrell, moved WPP HQ to Dublin. then he moved it back again. Right, Damo?

    That's correct.

    Things are looking decidedly tricky in our sector and any tax changes are likely to be felt considering that he slowdown in ad spend is already being felt. And frankly has done since Brexit.

    This week we merged with Maxus - the "4th" WPP media agency to make one big agency.

    The squeeze is already being felt and people are nervous for the future. We employ thousands of staff across multiple agencies in London. And some of the changes that are being spoken about could affect our staff.

    But as we are not public sector or NHS it doesn't get spoken about.
    hi, Damo. Respect to you for being one of the few prepared to actually make their case for voting Tory.

    We both know that advertising spend is a leading indicator of where the economy is heading. I didn't know it was already slowing down in the U.K.,as it is trucking along nicely in most of CEE, and I think in Germany too..

    You and I are on the same side of the Brexit argument. So I wonder how you can still consider voting for the party of Gove, Johnson, Davies, Fox, Andrea fucking Leadsom and "Sir" Bill Cash.

    I guess one answer you might give is that you fear tax rises could hit both consumer and business confidence further, so there is no way you are voting Labour. Yet you would vote again for the party which has already brought you the slowdown which is directly affecting your business. It is now clear that were it not for Brexit, you wouldn't be downgrading your forecasts, rather you would be upgrading them and desperately searching for staff - like my buddy and your colleague, regional director of Mindshare, with whom I had beers on Friday.

    In which case, wouldn't you consider voting Lib Dem?

  • Did I say that - I said the policy of talking to the IRA was behind the peace process. You clearly didn't read the link I posted!

    Nor you the link I provided - it is one thing to talk with the IRA but to agree with everything they say including opposing the Anglo Irish Agreement was hardly the way to peace.
  • Of course not agreeing with everything they say was the right way, but you had to talk to them. In the account from Hain, he referred to talking and disagreeing with the initial talks breaking down. But said this wasn't a failure but an important bridge to the peace process.
  • sm said:

    Did I say that - I said the policy of talking to the IRA was behind the peace process. You clearly didn't read the link I posted!

    Nor you the link I provided - it is one thing to talk with the IRA but to agree with everything they say including opposing the Anglo Irish Agreement was hardly the way to peace.
    But Unionist MPs opposed the agreement too
  • sm said:

    Did I say that - I said the policy of talking to the IRA was behind the peace process. You clearly didn't read the link I posted!

    Nor you the link I provided - it is one thing to talk with the IRA but to agree with everything they say including opposing the Anglo Irish Agreement was hardly the way to peace.
    But Unionist MPs opposed the agreement too
    Well there you are - but if you read the original account from Hain you will see the importance he attached to the agreement in moving things forward.
  • Leuth said:

    Missed the Theresa May part but I must say Corbyn at least believes in what he says which makes a change for politics. In my opinion if he didn't have himself surrounded with people like Abbott and McDonnell people would be much more inclined to vote for him.

    He's thrown a bit of a wobbly on the nuclear weapons questions and as someone said earlier he answers every question in a vague way by expanding the answer in to other things, as I type this he's completely dodged the blokes questions about business' moving abroad (this is one of my big worries)

    Corporation tax at 26% still lower than the other G7 countries. There, answered
    That literally hasn't answered the question he was asked..
    Didn't it? The suggestion was that if Corporation Tax was raised, companies would move to other countries. The response was that Labour's proposal to raise Corporation Tax would still result in the UK having the lowest rates of the other G7 countries, and with CT still being lower that it was in 2010. So, if companies did decide to leave the UK, it would clearly be for other reasons.
    Why couldn't they move to Ireland?
    Do they want to do business in our very wealthy economy? We are about to leave the EU after all and about to negotiate a lot of new trade deals.
    Indeed. However, it'd be easier, and more profitable, to move their registered head office to Ireland and pay corporation tax there. Everything else stays in place for them.

    It seems that those that were fretting about business leaving the UK as a result of Brexit, are now advocating trying to further push them away.
    This has been discussed loads of times. If you run a successful business in the U.K. lets say a chain of car washes. You claim your HO is in Dublin, but how are you going to get your revenue and costs into the Dublin company's books? Send an invoice for " management services" or following the Starbucks model " brand use" ? HMRC will be down on you like a ton of Millwall Bricks.

    Why then are they letting Google and Facebook get away with it? Well, you tell me. Incompetence and lack of resource, I would suggest though.

    Actually it would be interesting to hear from @DamoNorthStand on this. His "boss", Sir Martin Sorrell, moved WPP HQ to Dublin. then he moved it back again. Right, Damo?

    That's correct.

    Things are looking decidedly tricky in our sector and any tax changes are likely to be felt considering that he slowdown in ad spend is already being felt. And frankly has done since Brexit.

    This week we merged with Maxus - the "4th" WPP media agency to make one big agency.

    The squeeze is already being felt and people are nervous for the future. We employ thousands of staff across multiple agencies in London. And some of the changes that are being spoken about could affect our staff.

    But as we are not public sector or NHS it doesn't get spoken about.
    hi, Damo. Respect to you for being one of the few prepared to actually make their case for voting Tory.

    We both know that advertising spend is a leading indicator of where the economy is heading. I didn't know it was already slowing down in the U.K.,as it is trucking along nicely in most of CEE, and I think in Germany too..

    You and I are on the same side of the Brexit argument. So I wonder how you can still consider voting for the party of Gove, Johnson, Davies, Fox, Andrea fucking Leadsom and "Sir" Bill Cash.

    I guess one answer you might give is that you fear tax rises could hit both consumer and business confidence further, so there is no way you are voting Labour. Yet you would vote again for the party which has already brought you the slowdown which is directly affecting your business. It is now clear that were it not for Brexit, you wouldn't be downgrading your forecasts, rather you would be upgrading them and desperately searching for staff - like my buddy and your colleague, regional director of Mindshare, with whom I had beers on Friday.

    In which case, wouldn't you consider voting Lib Dem?

    An even more leading indicator is the level of business investment which has fallen sharply since the Brexit vote and which is ignored by everyone - if we want to make people better off you have to improve productivity then you need to increase the level of business investment. No one is asking Corbyn/McDonnell how this will be done through raising Corporation Tax by 7% or through giving funds to a National Investment Bank which will invest in exactly what and how? Or asking the Tories how Brexit will improve Business Investment when the first impact has been a sharp reduction. It's the economy stupid as they used to say!
  • smsm
    edited June 2017
    If anyone wants to know why we cannot afford, as a whole, to give ourselves large pay rises while other nations can might I suggest they look at Table 3 on the download here. You can of course redistribute between people in one direction or another - but the cake has hardly grown as a whole since the crash.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/datasets/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfirstestimates
  • I've been thinking really hard about this & I'm swaying to voting UKIP on Thursday.

    I've always voted Tory since I first voted in 1987, apart from in 1997 when I voted Lib Dems (or whatever they were called then). I can never vote Labour as I just don't believe in Socialism and especially the view that you can spend as much as you can & the money for it will be raised by taxing "the rich". I can't vote Lib Dems this time as I don't believe there should be a 2nd referendum & Teresa May is losing my vote as I agree with Tim Fallon that seeing as she called the Election she should at least turn up to debate it with the other leaders. I also feel that the cuts in welfare & especially social care have gone too far. Seeing as I voted to Leave I also agree with UKIP about net migration & some o their other policies too.

    However, I still think The Conservatives will win , but originally I thought it would be a landslide with as much as a 80 seat majority, but now I think its likely to be much less, at around 15-20 seats.
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  • sm said:

    Leuth said:

    Missed the Theresa May part but I must say Corbyn at least believes in what he says which makes a change for politics. In my opinion if he didn't have himself surrounded with people like Abbott and McDonnell people would be much more inclined to vote for him.

    He's thrown a bit of a wobbly on the nuclear weapons questions and as someone said earlier he answers every question in a vague way by expanding the answer in to other things, as I type this he's completely dodged the blokes questions about business' moving abroad (this is one of my big worries)

    Corporation tax at 26% still lower than the other G7 countries. There, answered
    That literally hasn't answered the question he was asked..
    Didn't it? The suggestion was that if Corporation Tax was raised, companies would move to other countries. The response was that Labour's proposal to raise Corporation Tax would still result in the UK having the lowest rates of the other G7 countries, and with CT still being lower that it was in 2010. So, if companies did decide to leave the UK, it would clearly be for other reasons.
    Why couldn't they move to Ireland?
    Do they want to do business in our very wealthy economy? We are about to leave the EU after all and about to negotiate a lot of new trade deals.
    Indeed. However, it'd be easier, and more profitable, to move their registered head office to Ireland and pay corporation tax there. Everything else stays in place for them.

    It seems that those that were fretting about business leaving the UK as a result of Brexit, are now advocating trying to further push them away.
    This has been discussed loads of times. If you run a successful business in the U.K. lets say a chain of car washes. You claim your HO is in Dublin, but how are you going to get your revenue and costs into the Dublin company's books? Send an invoice for " management services" or following the Starbucks model " brand use" ? HMRC will be down on you like a ton of Millwall Bricks.

    Why then are they letting Google and Facebook get away with it? Well, you tell me. Incompetence and lack of resource, I would suggest though.

    Actually it would be interesting to hear from @DamoNorthStand on this. His "boss", Sir Martin Sorrell, moved WPP HQ to Dublin. then he moved it back again. Right, Damo?

    That's correct.

    Things are looking decidedly tricky in our sector and any tax changes are likely to be felt considering that he slowdown in ad spend is already being felt. And frankly has done since Brexit.

    This week we merged with Maxus - the "4th" WPP media agency to make one big agency.

    The squeeze is already being felt and people are nervous for the future. We employ thousands of staff across multiple agencies in London. And some of the changes that are being spoken about could affect our staff.

    But as we are not public sector or NHS it doesn't get spoken about.
    hi, Damo. Respect to you for being one of the few prepared to actually make their case for voting Tory.

    We both know that advertising spend is a leading indicator of where the economy is heading. I didn't know it was already slowing down in the U.K.,as it is trucking along nicely in most of CEE, and I think in Germany too..

    You and I are on the same side of the Brexit argument. So I wonder how you can still consider voting for the party of Gove, Johnson, Davies, Fox, Andrea fucking Leadsom and "Sir" Bill Cash.

    I guess one answer you might give is that you fear tax rises could hit both consumer and business confidence further, so there is no way you are voting Labour. Yet you would vote again for the party which has already brought you the slowdown which is directly affecting your business. It is now clear that were it not for Brexit, you wouldn't be downgrading your forecasts, rather you would be upgrading them and desperately searching for staff - like my buddy and your colleague, regional director of Mindshare, with whom I had beers on Friday.

    In which case, wouldn't you consider voting Lib Dem?

    An even more leading indicator is the level of business investment which has fallen sharply since the Brexit vote and which is ignored by everyone - if we want to make people better off you have to improve productivity then you need to increase the level of business investment. No one is asking Corbyn/McDonnell how this will be done through raising Corporation Tax by 7% or through giving funds to a National Investment Bank which will invest in exactly what and how? Or asking the Tories how Brexit will improve Business Investment when the first impact has been a sharp reduction. It's the economy stupid as they used to say!
    The investment bank would be for infrastructure and regional development projects. It would be set up independent of government and split by region to limit liability:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/18/labour-vows-to-set-up-national-investment-bank-to-mobilise-500bn

    If we continue to act as a tax haven for companies then this means some serious questions about the tax take. As has been pointed out a low corporation tax does not suddenly mean companies flood to your shores. A cut to corporation tax is across the board, so will mean a reduction in the tax take, despite the new business it attracts. Therefore, you have to raise other taxes or cut services. Apparently the conservatives are going to do neither but instead, grow the economy without giving any details on how they plan to do so. Apparently it is more prudent to not cost or provide policy. Maybe they are going to launch a green paper on that as well because they seem clueless.
  • sm said:

    Leuth said:

    Missed the Theresa May part but I must say Corbyn at least believes in what he says which makes a change for politics. In my opinion if he didn't have himself surrounded with people like Abbott and McDonnell people would be much more inclined to vote for him.

    He's thrown a bit of a wobbly on the nuclear weapons questions and as someone said earlier he answers every question in a vague way by expanding the answer in to other things, as I type this he's completely dodged the blokes questions about business' moving abroad (this is one of my big worries)

    Corporation tax at 26% still lower than the other G7 countries. There, answered
    That literally hasn't answered the question he was asked..
    Didn't it? The suggestion was that if Corporation Tax was raised, companies would move to other countries. The response was that Labour's proposal to raise Corporation Tax would still result in the UK having the lowest rates of the other G7 countries, and with CT still being lower that it was in 2010. So, if companies did decide to leave the UK, it would clearly be for other reasons.
    Why couldn't they move to Ireland?
    Do they want to do business in our very wealthy economy? We are about to leave the EU after all and about to negotiate a lot of new trade deals.
    Indeed. However, it'd be easier, and more profitable, to move their registered head office to Ireland and pay corporation tax there. Everything else stays in place for them.

    It seems that those that were fretting about business leaving the UK as a result of Brexit, are now advocating trying to further push them away.
    This has been discussed loads of times. If you run a successful business in the U.K. lets say a chain of car washes. You claim your HO is in Dublin, but how are you going to get your revenue and costs into the Dublin company's books? Send an invoice for " management services" or following the Starbucks model " brand use" ? HMRC will be down on you like a ton of Millwall Bricks.

    Why then are they letting Google and Facebook get away with it? Well, you tell me. Incompetence and lack of resource, I would suggest though.

    Actually it would be interesting to hear from @DamoNorthStand on this. His "boss", Sir Martin Sorrell, moved WPP HQ to Dublin. then he moved it back again. Right, Damo?

    That's correct.

    Things are looking decidedly tricky in our sector and any tax changes are likely to be felt considering that he slowdown in ad spend is already being felt. And frankly has done since Brexit.

    This week we merged with Maxus - the "4th" WPP media agency to make one big agency.

    The squeeze is already being felt and people are nervous for the future. We employ thousands of staff across multiple agencies in London. And some of the changes that are being spoken about could affect our staff.

    But as we are not public sector or NHS it doesn't get spoken about.
    hi, Damo. Respect to you for being one of the few prepared to actually make their case for voting Tory.

    We both know that advertising spend is a leading indicator of where the economy is heading. I didn't know it was already slowing down in the U.K.,as it is trucking along nicely in most of CEE, and I think in Germany too..

    You and I are on the same side of the Brexit argument. So I wonder how you can still consider voting for the party of Gove, Johnson, Davies, Fox, Andrea fucking Leadsom and "Sir" Bill Cash.

    I guess one answer you might give is that you fear tax rises could hit both consumer and business confidence further, so there is no way you are voting Labour. Yet you would vote again for the party which has already brought you the slowdown which is directly affecting your business. It is now clear that were it not for Brexit, you wouldn't be downgrading your forecasts, rather you would be upgrading them and desperately searching for staff - like my buddy and your colleague, regional director of Mindshare, with whom I had beers on Friday.

    In which case, wouldn't you consider voting Lib Dem?

    An even more leading indicator is the level of business investment which has fallen sharply since the Brexit vote and which is ignored by everyone - if we want to make people better off you have to improve productivity then you need to increase the level of business investment. No one is asking Corbyn/McDonnell how this will be done through raising Corporation Tax by 7% or through giving funds to a National Investment Bank which will invest in exactly what and how? Or asking the Tories how Brexit will improve Business Investment when the first impact has been a sharp reduction. It's the economy stupid as they used to say!
    The investment bank would be for infrastructure and regional development projects. It would be set up independent of government and split by region to limit liability:

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/18/labour-vows-to-set-up-national-investment-bank-to-mobilise-500bn

    If we continue to act as a tax haven for companies then this means some serious questions about the tax take. As has been pointed out a low corporation tax does not suddenly mean companies flood to your shores. A cut to corporation tax is across the board, so will mean a reduction in the tax take, despite the new business it attracts. Therefore, you have to raise other taxes or cut services. Apparently the conservatives are going to do neither but instead, grow the economy without giving any details on how they plan to do so. Apparently it is more prudent to not cost or provide policy. Maybe they are going to launch a green paper on that as well because they seem clueless.
    The tune on the investment bank seems to change everytime I hear it. Corbyn was saying it was for investment in firms not lending. The manifesto says it is for lending. What do you mean by infrastructure and regional development projects? How will they improve productivity? Who will be making the investment decisions in the NIB - will they have the skills to do so? What objectives will they be set? Perhaps you should remember that a National Investment Bank was a pet project of Corbyn and McDonnell's hero Tony Benn who made all those stunning investments in Concorde and British Leyland.

    Also attacking the Tories doesn't carry much ice with me - they have done nothing to improve productivity over the past seven years and I don't think the tax haven approach works except in small economies. It strikes me that neither Momentum or the Tories have little idea on how to improve productivity - however if you look at the link you provided you will see that others do both in other countries and other time periods.
  • Can anyone confirm if Labour have banned Abbott from interviews until after the erection? If it's true, how can she be trusted as Home Sec should Labour win?

    Admin! Who is this bloke? have a word

  • edited June 2017

    Can anyone confirm if Labour have banned Abbott from interviews until after the erection? If it's true, how can she be trusted as Home Sec should Labour win?

    Whose erection. Got a secret crush on Diane @i_b_b_o_r_g ?
  • Just my way of injecting a bit of humour into an otherwise boring thread
  • The tax haven argument has been repeated over and over again through the last few pages, so wasn't aimed directly at you. Some plan, even if it is a little too ambitious, is better than no plan at all.

    I agree the details are few on the ground (not to be unexpected due the the snap nature of the election) and I also agree about productivity. I have often referenced Germany and the New deal in my previous posts about Quantitative Easing and how we failed to rebalance the economy. McDonnell has talked about rebalancing the economy, including high tech manufacturing, innovation and education.

    The inception of the idea of the investment bank might have come from Benn but the evidence it works comes from Germany, not Benn's investments (if anything, another good example of why it should be independant of government). The anti-austerity economics is based on Keynes and historical examples, like the New Deal, but it has evolved to include modern economists such as Thomas Piketty and, dare I say it, Yanis Varoufakis.
  • sm said:

    If anyone wants to know why we cannot afford, as a whole, to give ourselves large pay rises while other nations can might I suggest they look at Table 3 on the download here. You can of course redistribute between people in one direction or another - but the cake has hardly grown as a whole since the crash.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/datasets/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfirstestimates

    The interesting thing about that for me is that three countries which score higher are France, Germany and the US, and of course all three have significantly higher CIT rates than the 26% Labour want to raise it to. I agree with a lot of what you say, and certainly am not sure the current Labour front bench knows how to make the UK economy better (for everyone), but I equally don't get this common aversion to having a CIT rate in line with countries in our "peer group". Low CIT is only really justifiable for countries still building their infrastructure from which companies can benefit. It was never justifiable for Ireland, who took all that EU money and then undercut everybody. I have nothing but contempt for the Irish approach.

    But of course, speaking of Ireland, more important than the CIT rate is actually collecting it, especially from the Irish "based" fairy-tale spinners.

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  • Can anyone confirm if Labour have banned Abbott from interviews until after the erection? If it's true, how can she be trusted as Home Sec should Labour win?

    Same could be said for half the Tory front bench. Hammond, Hunt, Grayling?
    Just askin the question mate, probably agree with you re. Hunt and Hammond
  • After his recent 'schoolboy' type gaffes I expect they will try to keep Borris away from the cameras.
  • Just wow. I would honestly vote UKIP before I voted Tory at the moment and that is very hard for me to admit.
  • Can anyone confirm if Labour have banned Abbott from interviews until after the erection? If it's true, how can she be trusted as Home Sec should Labour win?

    Shacked up with Hammond

  • sm said:

    If anyone wants to know why we cannot afford, as a whole, to give ourselves large pay rises while other nations can might I suggest they look at Table 3 on the download here. You can of course redistribute between people in one direction or another - but the cake has hardly grown as a whole since the crash.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/datasets/internationalcomparisonsofproductivityfirstestimates

    The interesting thing about that for me is that three countries which score higher are France, Germany and the US, and of course all three have significantly higher CIT rates than the 26% Labour want to raise it to. I agree with a lot of what you say, and certainly am not sure the current Labour front bench knows how to make the UK economy better (for everyone), but I equally don't get this common aversion to having a CIT rate in line with countries in our "peer group". Low CIT is only really justifiable for countries still building their infrastructure from which companies can benefit. It was never justifiable for Ireland, who took all that EU money and then undercut everybody. I have nothing but contempt for the Irish approach.

    But of course, speaking of Ireland, more important than the CIT rate is actually collecting it, especially from the Irish "based" fairy-tale spinners.

    I agree the Corporation Tax rate isn't that relevant - what is perhaps more important is how the system is used to encourage investment. Raising the rate on its own would clearly have a damaging impact on business investment - but applying a higher rate to those companies that don't invest, and using the tax system to encourage investment through capital allowances/grants etc. might. I think the Germans and French do a lot more of this - it also is probably a better way of directing investment than through a National Investment Bank. The thought of John McDonnell doing the direction and defining what is high tech and what isn't is something I find genuinely terrifying - what are his credentials for making investment decisions? Of course all of this might improve business investment - but it will not immediately produce a lot in the way of additional tax for pet projects and redistribution.

    If you wish to increase investment and productivity this will mean a period of national belt tightening as a whole before you can start enjoying the benefits.
  • 3% is the rate proposed by the Labour Land Campaign headed by McDonnell's old GLC pal Dave Wetzel.
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!