I suppose you have to have a wry chuckle and accept simply nothing with this mob will ever be straight forward.
On the face of it, the Summer turnover programme has looked broadly positive in terms of a quality upgrade and no key departures. But it’s left holes that haven’t been addressed (unless anything emerges in the coming days with out of contract players), and right at the death a wealth of experience has been released which may come back to bite us.
As a transfer window period it feels very much to me like a replication of the Summer 2015 turnover. We shifted a large number of ‘deadwood’ off our books and replaced them with a smaller number of arrivals, but a perceived upgrade in quality. Bauer and Kashi went on to supply that quality, but early promise of Ba, Ceballos and Makienok didn’t last, and that of Sarr, Bergditch never really showed in the first place. Equally, those promoted from the U21s (Charles-Cook and Lennon) never really went on to have an impact that season.
But at this equivalent point in time, things were looking positive. When the August window closed, we had won 4 of our opening first team fixtures, drawn 2 and lost only 1 (Wolves away). On 1st Sept, We were in the Championship Top 8. But things turned quickly wrong; by mid-October we had dropped to the relegation places and we never got out of it for the rest of the season.
I don’t project any similar monumental drop this season, largely because the quality around us in League One is considerably lower than it was in the 15/16 Championship and there is less impact of other factors escalating the problem (heavier weighting of overseas players, ill-placed management team etc).
But so many of the points I wrote on 1st Sept 2015 remain pertinent on 1st Sept 2017.
1.
“When the squad is fully fit then it looks a relatively strong and balanced 1st team with the potential to do decent things in the Championship this season. This has been evidenced by the early form.” – Yep, ditto for the this season in League One. On paper we look good. Very good. And we have started well
2.
“Makienok and Reza are injured, Vetokele is returning from a long injury and a long way since his 2014 form, and uncertainties surround Watt; our striking options are our other major risk. Ahearne-Grant is not quite there yet to be anything more than a back-up option. Our three main strikers could all potentially have fantastic seasons, but there are risks there at present that it may prove a major problem area".- We looked like we carried risks up front and so it proved to be risks that materialised. We seem to be carrying similar risks this season in the complete reliance of Magennis as the only player seemingly able to play a function in the preferred team style the manager wants to play. With Novak released and Hanlan sent on loan, there is no back up to that role. If Magennis is injured (which history shows us does happen fairly frequently), we will have to change our style to accommodate Dodoo, who there are justifiable question marks on whether he will be of the standard we need.
3.
“With those risks, letting Ansah and Sho-Silva go on loan at this point indicates they are seen as a long way away from first team action.” – So its fair we make the same judgement on Hanlan and Umerah.
4.
“Squad gaps are being plugged by U21 players (Lennon, Holmes-Dennis, Kennedy etc), but there are unknowns whether they are being filled out of necessity due to small squad, or they are good enough.” – This year’s crop of promoted U23s; Barnes, Djiksteel, Lapslie and Hackett-Fairchild will undoubtedly be required to step up at some stage and come under the same scutiny.
5.
“Roland's approach is still as difficult to decipher as it was when he first arrived at the Club. Under RD we have now failed to get 'over the line' in transfer windows supposedly sizable bids for players (Max Gradel, Andy Dulort, James Henry), and in each case there was no other equivalent aquisition. What happens to the funding earmarked for those high value purchases?" – So the 2017 roll call for this appears to primarily be Grigg, but again it’s another window where supposedly a large level of money has been available for an acquisition that never occurred, and with no identified replacement.
6.
“It is clear from the breakdown that the Club is operating very much on a strict budget, and despite the windfall from the Gomez departure, the approach remains more focused on maintaining rather than a noticeable attempt to push for a play-off place.” – We’ve gone through a clear budget reduction this summer and for the Gomez money we can say exactly the same of the Lookman / Fox money.
7.
“A strong wind, a dollop of luck, and this proving the only real injury situation we have for the next six months does not mean that goal is not achievable, but the lack of additions to the squad over the last month will make that much more difficult.” - We haven’t got the injury situation yet, and we need that luck to ensure that doesn’t emerge. But any significant injuries over the next few months to Solly, Dasilva and particularly Magennis could have a major impact upon us.
In summary, I’m convinced that our best 11 is one that should be a prime contender for an automatic promotion place. Maintaining a lack of injuries in key positions is going to be vital, and Josh Magennis deserved that new contract because an enormous amount is expected of him this season.
Key risks are the lack of a replacement figurehead up front and the slight fear that the squad is lightweight and short. We look nice now, but while everyone is Game of Thrones mad at the moment, Winter is Coming.
Crofts and Novak are very experienced players at this level and yesterday we let two squad men with over 700 games experience at this level leave the club. They might not be fans favourites, but Crofts is proven to dig in on a cold Tuesday night in a physical game, and Novak is a presence who provides an outlet and is a replacement fit for the manager’s preferred style of formation.
We’ve lost that now, and with the later in particular, not replaced. Dodoo may well now give us a different option, but he has only player a full 90 minutes just 4 times in his career, and none of them a central striker. We’ve brought in a body, but it’s not obviously clear at this stage it’s what we needed.
If we maintain our strong start to the season, then that requested dollop of luck and a gentle injury situation will need to play a factor. Equally, Robinson, Jackson and Bowyer have a challenge to ensure that squad togetherness, spirit and attitude remains tight throughout the season. This is something we’ve consistently fallen short of during the Duchatelet / Meire reign.
On balance, we have our best chance for a number of years for a strong season. But not addressing the striker situation properly and letting a high level of experience leave without replacement at the end of the window has probably now made that a bit more of a challenge.
So frustrating. And I bet Robinson is also feeling that frustration as well.
Agree or Disagree? lets hear your summary thoughts
(link to the quoted 2015 article is
HERE 
Comments
The problem is Magennis' injury record, and we're yet to see if this problem has an adequate solution, but this season we bestride our division like a colossus. In 2015 we didn't - there were plenty of big fish - so we couldn't handle a crisis. Also our management was shonky at best.
Now we have a young, hungry, integrated team playing an effective system under a manager who seems to know what he's doing. A lot of extremely promising youngsters have come through at once and we have strong back-up all over the pitch except perhaps in the forward position. We've ditched some of the 'experienced' (mediocre, slow) players that stunk up the place last season and we look like we might start slaying sides in the manner of previous promotion teams.
Keep the faith. This isn't 2015 again. Not even close. We'd just better hope it isn't 2009/10 all over again (and that if it is, we have 5 good penalty takers)
If we can stay relatively injury free we are a good team. If we have single injuries, and not a spate of them, we can introduce a player here or there and nurture them through a game, on that basis we could sustain a degree of competitiveness until January.
However it is not difficult to imagine a red card three match suspension, and a significant injury, and some exhaustion in the squad, heavy pitches, long journey fatigue, other clubs sussing us out, a mistake, a player out of form and you have to worry about the general strength of the team.
Now the transfer window is closed the sole focus ought to be maintaining players in good condition, and training on a game by game basis to win. We are in short term city until January and our concern is tomorrow at Oldham.
Oldham is actually a good early example of how the squad is being tested, with no Josh and Jay, and inexperienced back up, and a vulnerable Jackson, and our still developing ability to cope with set plays, then avoiding defeat would be good, and a win would provide useful wadding.
And a win is within our grasp if we do it right.
Well it makes a difference from asking are you glass half full or half empty or the terrible and false moaner/apologist divide but an individual's view on the regime does seem to colour how they see the transfer work done this summer to a certain degree at least.
For me the window has been a qualified success.
The manager has wanted to play a certain formation (4231) and wanted players to play that formation and he's got them.
In part, he still has a backbone of players from the Slade era such as Pearce, Holmes and Magennis plus the few remainers from the Belgium coaches era. I could look up which coach was in charge when Bauer and Kashi arrived but who really cares now.
But he has added Clarke and Reeves for the crucial to his system number 10 role as well as Fosu and the injured Marshall on the wings.
That we've needed a striker was clear to everyone and Robinson didn't hold back in saying this was a priority. The urgency grew greater as Vetokele and Ajose left to be followed by Watt and then at the last-minute Novak.
So the signing of Joe Dodoo was as needed as it was welcome. The last-minute nature of the signing and that it is only for six months, initially at least, will raise questions about whether it was a hasty move or part of a planned strategy. There is not just the matter of the quality of the strikers but the quantity with just Dodoo and Magennis available. There are options with Clarke but Robinson has already said he's not a frontline striker or there are the double barrel kids Ahern-Grant or Hackett-Fairchild but neither are proven yet as senior goal scorers. Joe maybe a real asset but even Robinson is talking of him as something different from Magennis so not the needed cover for big Irishman. If Josh is injured, and his injury record and his playing style suggest that is quite possible, then what?
What happened over Grigg and Geddon, two widely touted targets, will be spun as either a tight-fisted owner not willing to pay the going rate or sensible management sticking to an agreed budget and not giving into blackmail. Again, much will depend on what side of the pro or anti fence you sit on. However, I think even the most rabid regime advocates will have to swallow hard before saying the Dodoo was always part of the plan and Robinson’s first choice. Even Robinson was talking about waiting to January two days ago.
Defensively we looked well covered at centre half although Lennon is injured and Sarr yet to be re-tested in league football. Konsa can cover at CH, RB and midfield but perhaps the biggest surprise of the summer is that Konsa is still here. Not because "Roland always sells the kids at the first offer" because evidence says he doesn't but because coach Lee Bowyer was very open when he said he expected him to be sold. There were rumours that a £3.5m offer was on the table but clearly, if true, Charlton didn't pick it up. That must be good news as we keep a talented player for longer even if it only means, as some will see it, delaying the inevitable. Regardless he still with us for another 5 months at least. The club may feel that, ala Lookman, they can get a better price in January but there is no guarantee.
There are a good crop of youngster coming through alongside Konsa with Aribo and Dijksteel the ones who've been selected most often so far this season. Both are talented but will be inconsistent as will most young players.
At full back Dijksteel offers much needed cover for Solly, as does Barnes. On the left with Page out and DaSilva on England duty the choice so far has been the ageless Jackson, a player who has all the guile and ability to play full back but not the pace to get back or get forward. Barnes was reportedly a fish out of water on the wrong side v Crawley as the coaching staff looked for a solution to this problem.
The biggest mystery seems to me to be at goalkeeper. Again, Robinson spoke openly about Philips needing to play games and getting him out on loan. But the other keeper need to cover the improving Amos never arrived, Martin now having pitched up at Millwall, so we have just two senior keepers and possibly a young prospect frustrated by another season as 2nd choice behind a loan player. Far from ideal for Philips or the squad.
I’m an optimist, a glass half full person and from what I’ve seen so far this is a good side playing good football and scoring goals but it is early days. Robinson got some of what he wanted but not all but a lot of big earners and players who weren't going to fit in his system have been moved out, a problem that has hung around the neck of all the previous network coaches.
As ever the proof of whether the transfer window has been a success won’t be now but how the results pan out over the season. If we get automatic promotion or even the play-offs then it has gone well. Anything less, be that due to injuries or loss of form, has to be seen as failure.
Charlton's president of deceit won't be changing his either, surrounded as he is by toadies, lickspittles and brownnosers.
A pox on them all.
I suspect the plan is to see where we are at Christmas and invest more if we look strong candidates to go up. If we are on the periphery or worse, perhaps having suffered from injury, one or two will leave and poor replacements will come in on loan, so that we can try again next year.
Fortunately, this division does not have 5 or 6 teams that look ready to go up. This might mean that we get away with a lightweight squad, but as an Oldham lump goes clattering into Magennis on Saturday, there will be many wondering whether our season is about to go off the rails.
Seen 3 of the 4 league games we look mustard.
This team will create a lot of chances.
We needed another striker in, should go up with this squad.
I hope I'm not back on here in May and we've finished a couple of points off automatic promotion.
If we do go up with what we have rolys ways worked.
If the squad, although thin, is as good as you say it is then what is it that stops Roland from signing a couple more and giving it a real go?
He could virtually guarantee at the very least a playoff place.
Didn't Slater and co state that remaining in league one was pretty much unsustainable over the medium term when they first took over? This continued failure must be costing a bomb.
I said it yesterday, but as each season goes on under this lot I get more and more baffled.
- the budget has been flattened - he just doesn't want to lose more millions on a nothing football club and their ingrate fans
- nobody gets relegated in January and by 1st Feb he'll be long gone
- the roster has had a hefty pruning to reduce the immediate demands on the incomer, to sweeten the deal
This is the beginning of the end-game. CAFC has been a major disappointment to Roland, because we wilfully failed to bear out his Football Network Theory (patents pending), and RD just plain doesn't get it. Remember that he thinks like a farmer, and he's like the old boy who's heartbroken at the death of his favourite donkey just as he thought he'd trained it to live without food. Same senseless self-inflicted damage - same myopia.
How much Yosser knows about all this is unclear. I suspect that when Frankenstein finally disappears into the storm KR has been told that he will be the lucky Igor left with the keys to the castle. Good boy !! History may have dimmed the accomplishments of the saintly LL but if KR pulls off the unbelievable balancing and juggling feat that is today's CAFC to find long-term success then in my book it will equal the amazing Lennie years. I sincerely wish him well, and hope that what we've seen in the past few weeks is not yet another false dawn.
I predicted a year ago that RD would be gone just before Xmas - well, I still stand by that, but obviously I was just a year out. Nit-pickers !!