Love that, just shows how bonkers London/SE prices are compared to the rest of the country. I'm certainly planning to move out/cash in when I can pack up the city rat race.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
Agreed, but there will be casualties that follows any price reduction and increase in interest rates. So it may help those without a house get onto the ladder but mostly replacing people falling off. As prices reduce the BTL landlords will return as well.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
These are also the same parents that now have to chip in and help said young people manage £30k worth of debt should they want to go to uni etc. Absolutely everything is getting squeezed now. Governments, successive governments whether they be Labour or Tory have massively underestimated what this bubble has caused, and they've sat there and done fuck all meaningful about it
Where have they been when Chinese money has been snapping up all these new builds and slicing them up into shared living for poor sods who get the pleasure of renting a box room for an exorbitant amount per month. That whole pissing location, location culture with Kirsty and phil etc, where it was fashionable to be a 'project manager' doing up a property etc. It's all a load of bollocks and now it can't be corrected for first time buyers who don't have a shot of getting a deposit, nor can it be corrected for people on silly 0. Whatever interest rate they've benefitted from, because if rates rise to counteract it, then you suddenly have a load of homeowners massively stretched
Love that, just shows how bonkers London/SE prices are compared to the rest of the country. I'm certainly planning to move out/cash in when I can pack up the city rat race.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
Agreed, but there will be casualties that follows any price reduction and increase in interest rates. So it may help those without a house get onto the ladder but mostly replacing people falling off. As prices reduce the BTL landlords will return as well.
I don't think a crash would be a nice thing to wish for. There would be thousands plunged into negative equity and many of those poor souls losing their homes and I'm talking about normal working families not the rich or rich foreign investors. I think the BTL has done a lot of damage to the housing in the south east. They're the type of homes that would be traditionally bought by the first time buyer or people on lower income. Its very easy for someone with a one or two BTLs to get another one or two but a lot harder for the poor sods trying to get on the first run to buy the same type of property.
Only once, didn't seem *that* bad. I was only passing through however.
It regularly vies with Stoke and Middlesbrough as the worst places to live in the UK. Stoke wins most of the time though.
walking around a shopping malls midweek in places like Hull,Barnsley,Oldham (i havent done it often) but it strikes me how many men of working age are about ie not seeming to be working
Wait till interest rates go up then you will see an almighty crash.
The first 0.25% rise is expected in November and the next 0.25% rise in May 2018.
I don't think it will be that soon. First 0.25% rise in Q1 2018 & then another in late 2018 or early 2019.
with that in mind a can't see how a rate rise is going to bring down houses prices. A rise of those amounts will add about £20pm - £30pm on an average mortgage payment. Hardly earth shattering
So, it seems the biggest cause of the fall in prices has been due to a fall in the London and South East prime market. This it seems was caused by introducing stamp duty of 3% on second homes and buy-to-let. Do many people buy prime properties to live in themselves then? I'd imagine that people living in family homes that are in constant demand aren't going to suddenly find themselves in negative equity. I appreciate people buying homes as an investment, particularly as interest rates make saving money in the bank fairly pointless, but unless more homes are actually built, or areas with an abundance of properties suddenly become worth living in, prices are always going to be high.
Love that, just shows how bonkers London/SE prices are compared to the rest of the country. I'm certainly planning to move out/cash in when I can pack up the city rat race.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
Agreed, but there will be casualties that follows any price reduction and increase in interest rates. So it may help those without a house get onto the ladder but mostly replacing people falling off. As prices reduce the BTL landlords will return as well.
You won't rent you're place in London rob
Wasn't going to, I plan to sell up the house and buy a flat in London and with the difference buy a pad in the country (Norfolk).
I think London is always going to have an OK rental market, the amateur landlords may well be forced to sell up if rents go down/interest rates go up, but they'll be picked up by first time buyers able to get onto the ladder and professional landlords. The £300m man is sitting waiting for it to happen and he'll buy up 100's I suspect if prices correct enough.
What you really need is Labour to get in and put on rent caps, the market will die a death we'll all be able to go and buy that big place up near @bobmunro
I think the changes in buy to let taxation haven't started to bite yet. There are fewer people buying buy to lets but not many liquidating their portfolios. The change in prices in £5m houses will have a limited effect on 'normal' houses and flats as there will always be excessive demand for the latter.
The story is sensationalism, and the numbers seem big but, in reality a £300k drop off the price of a £5m property when such a small proportion of the population can afford it, and many of the previous buyers were from overseas and don't fancy us as much now (Brexit, increased stamp duty, potential fall of the £), is insignificant.
When times become hard people don't sell their houses and live in tents they just seek out cheaper properties. Thus the net effect is that the very highest prices fall but the rest rise. This happens until the price differential from, say Kensington and Fulham gets so small that the perceived extra cost is worth it. At the start of this process, however, the very top properties become less desirable.
For house prices to fall we would need to see a reduction in lending or a reduction in demand for housing. I can't see either any time soon. There will, undoubtedly, be a slow down from renters buying, in the short term, all the while they have reservations about Brexit but I don't think that will have a significant effect either.
Love that, just shows how bonkers London/SE prices are compared to the rest of the country. I'm certainly planning to move out/cash in when I can pack up the city rat race.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
Agreed, but there will be casualties that follows any price reduction and increase in interest rates. So it may help those without a house get onto the ladder but mostly replacing people falling off. As prices reduce the BTL landlords will return as well.
You won't rent you're place in London rob
Wasn't going to, I plan to sell up the house and buy a flat in London and with the difference buy a pad in the country (Norfolk).
I think London is always going to have an OK rental market, the amateur landlords may well be forced to sell up if rents go down/interest rates go up, but they'll be picked up by first time buyers able to get onto the ladder and professional landlords. The £300m man is sitting waiting for it to happen and he'll buy up 100's I suspect if prices correct enough.
What you really need is Labour to get in and put on rent caps, the market will die a death we'll all be able to go and buy that big place up near @bobmunro
'Big place' is a relative term. The house I linked to is, to use estate agent speak, compact and bijou compared to Munro Towers ;-)
Had to get my late Mum's little house in Eltham Park valued. The estate agent confirmed that the local market has cooled in the last few months. He trimmed about 8% off the valuation he would have made in January. He cited the uncertainty around Brexit and expects it to continue for a while. As others have said, about time too, but I agree with @Super_Eddie_Youds. Nothing is being done about the long term shortage of supply of housing in the South East, so upward pressure will resume. Especially as Johnson will be PM and the glorious post Brexit future will ensure that its more of the same for London. Dominated by financial services with insane salaries, not to mention foreign oligarchs and other fugitives from justice, pushing up prices again. (But not in Eltham Park obviously...)
Love that, just shows how bonkers London/SE prices are compared to the rest of the country. I'm certainly planning to move out/cash in when I can pack up the city rat race.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
Agreed, but there will be casualties that follows any price reduction and increase in interest rates. So it may help those without a house get onto the ladder but mostly replacing people falling off. As prices reduce the BTL landlords will return as well.
You won't rent you're place in London rob
Wasn't going to, I plan to sell up the house and buy a flat in London and with the difference buy a pad in the country (Norfolk).
I think London is always going to have an OK rental market, the amateur landlords may well be forced to sell up if rents go down/interest rates go up, but they'll be picked up by first time buyers able to get onto the ladder and professional landlords. The £300m man is sitting waiting for it to happen and he'll buy up 100's I suspect if prices correct enough.
What you really need is Labour to get in and put on rent caps, the market will die a death we'll all be able to go and buy that big place up near @bobmunro
I think the changes in buy to let taxation haven't started to bite yet. There are fewer people buying buy to lets but not many liquidating their portfolios. The change in prices in £5m houses will have a limited effect on 'normal' houses and flats as there will always be excessive demand for the latter.
The story is sensationalism, and the numbers seem big but, in reality a £300k drop off the price of a £5m property when such a small proportion of the population can afford it, and many of the previous buyers were from overseas and don't fancy us as much now (Brexit, increased stamp duty, potential fall of the £), is insignificant.
When times become hard people don't sell their houses and live in tents they just seek out cheaper properties. Thus the net effect is that the very highest prices fall but the rest rise. This happens until the price differential from, say Kensington and Fulham gets so small that the perceived extra cost is worth it. At the start of this process, however, the very top properties become less desirable.
For house prices to fall we would need to see a reduction in lending or a reduction in demand for housing. I can't see either any time soon. There will, undoubtedly, be a slow down from renters buying, in the short term, all the while they have reservations about Brexit but I don't think that will have a significant effect either.
To liquidate my 'portfolio' I'd need the capital gains tax to be waived. Until that happens I'm not selling and I suspect the vast majority of second home owners are like minded. I doubt any of us ever expected the increase we've seen in the value of the property we bought and now no longer need. A simple tax amnesty and I suspect a lot of extra property would be released back into the market, as would the cash into the economy.
I think the changes in buy to let taxation haven't started to bite yet. There are fewer people buying buy to lets but not many liquidating their portfolios. The change in prices in £5m houses will have a limited effect on 'normal' houses and flats as there will always be excessive demand for the latter.
The story is sensationalism, and the numbers seem big but, in reality a £300k drop off the price of a £5m property when such a small proportion of the population can afford it, and many of the previous buyers were from overseas and don't fancy us as much now (Brexit, increased stamp duty, potential fall of the £), is insignificant.
When times become hard people don't sell their houses and live in tents they just seek out cheaper properties. Thus the net effect is that the very highest prices fall but the rest rise. This happens until the price differential from, say Kensington and Fulham gets so small that the perceived extra cost is worth it. At the start of this process, however, the very top properties become less desirable.
For house prices to fall we would need to see a reduction in lending or a reduction in demand for housing. I can't see either any time soon. There will, undoubtedly, be a slow down from renters buying, in the short term, all the while they have reservations about Brexit but I don't think that will have a significant effect either.
To liquidate my 'portfolio' I'd need the capital gains tax to be waived. Until that happens I'm not selling and I suspect the vast majority of second home owners are like minded. I doubt any of us ever expected the increase we've seen in the value of the property we bought and now no longer need. A simple tax amnesty and I suspect a lot of extra property would be released back into the market, as would the cash into the economy.
Why would you need it to be waived? It's only a tax on the gain, no different to income tax.
I'd rather sell with a gain of £200k and pay the CGT than sell when it's no profit.......
Although I'm not a fan of a particular CGT levy, I'm selling my dads house as he's through not fault of his own been in a dementia home for the past 2 years. If I kept it post 3 years and then sold CGT is payable by him as classed as a 2nd home.......
Love that, just shows how bonkers London/SE prices are compared to the rest of the country. I'm certainly planning to move out/cash in when I can pack up the city rat race.
I can't remember which thread it was on, but I predicted a property price fall about a year ago. Possibly, when we were discussing the possibility of Brexit.
I said one of the benefits as I saw it, was I thought it may give my grown up kids an opportunity of owning their own property. I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.
The danger is of course that although lower house prices will enable your grown up kids onto the ladder or others not currently on it, it may mean many others lose their homes especially if it coincides with interest rate increases. I don't think a housing crash, negative equity and repossessions would be good right now for the country. It'll also mean the rich picking up a load more property cheap! That'll upset some people greatly
If house prices are too high in real terms - the ratio to average wages is bonkers at the moment - the only way of correction this is either a crash or to have no house price increases for the next 25 years.
Politicians may not want such a correction, but the alternative is to have a whole generation of young people priced out of the market until their parents can help.
Agreed, but there will be casualties that follows any price reduction and increase in interest rates. So it may help those without a house get onto the ladder but mostly replacing people falling off. As prices reduce the BTL landlords will return as well.
You won't rent you're place in London rob
Wasn't going to, I plan to sell up the house and buy a flat in London and with the difference buy a pad in the country (Norfolk).
I think London is always going to have an OK rental market, the amateur landlords may well be forced to sell up if rents go down/interest rates go up, but they'll be picked up by first time buyers able to get onto the ladder and professional landlords. The £300m man is sitting waiting for it to happen and he'll buy up 100's I suspect if prices correct enough.
What you really need is Labour to get in and put on rent caps, the market will die a death we'll all be able to go and buy that big place up near @bobmunro
'Big place' is a relative term. The house I linked to is, to use estate agent speak, compact and bijou compared to Munro Towers ;-)
not to mention I seem to recall we still had ridiculous house price inflation when rates were much higher.. its Brexit uncertainty rather than a bubble bursting, of course that doesn't mean it won't hurt
Not sure why people are acting all mystic meg and saying they could see this coming. They've been rising for so long it was obvious it would have to stop at some point.
Not sure why people are acting all mystic meg and saying they could see this coming. They've been rising for so long it was obvious it would have to stop at some point.
I agree in terms of London and the inner south-east.
Other parts of the country have however only seen modest rises. For example my current house in Cheshire was purchased in February 2008 (top of the market I agree) and according to the Nationwide House Price Index has increased by 12.7% in that time (less than RPI). A house of the same value bought in Greater London at the same time would have increased by over 70%.
Comments
Where have they been when Chinese money has been snapping up all these new builds and slicing them up into shared living for poor sods who get the pleasure of renting a box room for an exorbitant amount per month. That whole pissing location, location culture with Kirsty and phil etc, where it was fashionable to be a 'project manager' doing up a property etc. It's all a load of bollocks and now it can't be corrected for first time buyers who don't have a shot of getting a deposit, nor can it be corrected for people on silly 0. Whatever interest rate they've benefitted from, because if rates rise to counteract it, then you suddenly have a load of homeowners massively stretched
absolute fucking joke
with that in mind a can't see how a rate rise is going to bring down houses prices. A rise of those amounts will add about £20pm - £30pm on an average mortgage payment. Hardly earth shattering
I think London is always going to have an OK rental market, the amateur landlords may well be forced to sell up if rents go down/interest rates go up, but they'll be picked up by first time buyers able to get onto the ladder and professional landlords. The £300m man is sitting waiting for it to happen and he'll buy up 100's I suspect if prices correct enough.
What you really need is Labour to get in and put on rent caps, the market will die a death we'll all be able to go and buy that big place up near @bobmunro
The story is sensationalism, and the numbers seem big but, in reality a £300k drop off the price of a £5m property when such a small proportion of the population can afford it, and many of the previous buyers were from overseas and don't fancy us as much now (Brexit, increased stamp duty, potential fall of the £), is insignificant.
When times become hard people don't sell their houses and live in tents they just seek out cheaper properties. Thus the net effect is that the very highest prices fall but the rest rise. This happens until the price differential from, say Kensington and Fulham gets so small that the perceived extra cost is worth it. At the start of this process, however, the very top properties become less desirable.
For house prices to fall we would need to see a reduction in lending or a reduction in demand for housing. I can't see either any time soon. There will, undoubtedly, be a slow down from renters buying, in the short term, all the while they have reservations about Brexit but I don't think that will have a significant effect either.
I'd rather sell with a gain of £200k and pay the CGT than sell when it's no profit.......
Although I'm not a fan of a particular CGT levy, I'm selling my dads house as he's through not fault of his own been in a dementia home for the past 2 years. If I kept it post 3 years and then sold CGT is payable by him as classed as a 2nd home.......
Other parts of the country have however only seen modest rises. For example my current house in Cheshire was purchased in February 2008 (top of the market I agree) and according to the Nationwide House Price Index has increased by 12.7% in that time (less than RPI). A house of the same value bought in Greater London at the same time would have increased by over 70%.