I only go back to the 98 promotion season but every time we have gone up since (and including) then, we have had at least one good striker. While Leaburn clearly has talent. Taylor (backed up by a ridiculously good midfield) won us a lot of free points even when we didn't play well.
Of the teams below us in the league this season we have taken 9 points from a possible 30 points from them.Four of those points came against Lincoln. Think about it Accrington ,Cheltenham, Fleetwood,Burton,Forest Green Rovers , Cambridge and MK Dons none of whom we have as yet beaten this season we still have to play. That’s play off form 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Think Not.
Of the teams below us in the league this season we have taken 9 points from a possible 30 points from them.Four of those points came against Lincoln. Think about it Accrington ,Cheltenham, Fleetwood,Burton,Forest Green Rovers , Cambridge and MK Dons none of whom we have as yet beaten this season we still have to play. That’s play off form 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Think Not.
None of those games were under Holden though, which makes a big difference, as he's a more pragmatic manager than Garner.
Factors not mentioned -number of times teams have to play direct competitors for play-off places (7 games of 18 for us)=6pointers -number of times teams play teams really fighting for survival (of the 11 remaining games- at a guess 9 of these) -number of times teams play teams that have been relegated before the end of the season (?? don't know/can't work this out atm)= games where one team has nothing to play for.
If we achieve an excellent run of 2 of every 3 points available, we come up just short of Louies 75pts, so even a good run we will not make it, we need a run of over 2pts out of 3, which is Roy of the Rovers stuff.
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Not sure it really works like that. The six clubs above us also have targets, and it’s very unlikely that not one of them will meet them, especially as they all have a points advantage over us.
Barnsley, for example, have 47pts to our 37, so only need 28pts to get to 75 and they have a game in hand over us. They require just 1.47pts a game.
We need 38 points. And then there’s goal difference. Theirs is currently +10 and ours is +4, so we might need 39 points. That’s 2.17pts a game. And we have a lot of tough fixture coming up. Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
It's not even just about us and how we do.
These teams still have to play each other - both teams can't win and points will be dropped. They no doubt also still have to play top 5 teams.
The mid-table is tight enough that any mid-table team that can string a run together can make a late charge for the playoffs - it's been done often enough in the past few seasons and a couple of those teams even promoted.
That doesn't mean to say that we will do that - only that it's do-able.
Realistically there's only 6th place up for grabs and right now it seems 6 other teams have a better chance - but we've already beaten 3 of them in our last 5 games.
Bowyer's team of 2019 were struggling at this time of the season, but from March put together a fabulous 12 match run to clinch a playoff spot. That's the measure of the task before us, possible but unlikely.
I'm with Dean Holdsworth though ....... all the while 6th position is still there to play for, then play for it. More fun that just giving up.
One game at a time - and then see where it takes us.
Dean Holdsworth....? Wait what. Have we a new manager already ?
Factors not mentioned -number of times teams have to play direct competitors for play-off places (7 games of 18 for us)=6pointers -number of times teams play teams really fighting for survival (of the 11 remaining games- at a guess 9 of these) -number of times teams play teams that have been relegated before the end of the season (?? don't know/can't work this out atm)= games where one team has nothing to play for.
If we achieve an excellent run of 2 of every 3 points available, we come up just short of Louies 75pts, so even a good run we will not make it, we need a run of over 2pts out of 3, which is Roy of the Rovers stuff.
It's not that we would need 75 points, more like need 1 point more or better GD than the team finishing 7th.
Like you, I'm not expecting us to make 6th place ...... but other teams doing well at the moment may slip away. Past seasons indicate some teams do.
That's the lottery of it all. Nobody knows right now.
And at this stage of the season, it's all still to play for.
75 points is what I would look at as a target but indeed it is the lowest total based on history to get you in the play offs 100% of the time (dscounting the shortened Covid season). That means that 72 points could be enough. Who knows. I think it is reasonable to set a target and see where that gets you so I am sure Holden hasn't given up on it. 72 or 75, it is an extremely challenging target for us and one we are unlikely to reach but there is a chance still.
I remember Lee Bowyer talking about his '9 game blocks' ...... where effectively the season was broken up into mini-seasons. Obviously this meant that points targets were brought down to the more short term - and perhaps more achievable in the players' mind.
Whether Holden does things the same way, I wouldn't know ..... but he'll ensure the target points are achievable in the short term and psychologically not a huge mountain to climb.
75 points? He'll just set his stall out to win the next game. One game at a time.
We won’t get within 10 points of 6th why cos we’re shit in a shit league
3 wins in 4. Bore off so sick of negativity all the time just coz you're old enough to remember 1962 "in the good ol days" moan on the other threads honestly with fans like this who needs Milwall or Palace just do it for them.
I have to deal with people slagging my team off left and right all the time, I don't need to hear it from the people that support us. I just need a break for a change. So with respect, take the negativity elsewhere
The thread isn’t let’s live in cloud cuckoo land and pretend we’ll make the play offs it’s will we make the play offs
of course it could happen BUT my view is we will miss by a long way
what do you actually want a stream of lunatics saying yeah we should do it we’re smashimg great super
it’s our worst footballing period ever , negativity will abound , unfortunately that’s the real world whether you like it or not .
As a gesture of good will if we make the play offs and get promoted this season I’m buying you your season ticket next season to celebrate anywhere in the ground .
you can do whatever you like, i'll just be supporting the team and not saying they are shit at every opportunity.
I’m on a message board saying the reality as I see it of our situation , I’m not gonna pretend otherwise and if people wish to talk us up when we’re shit I’ll express my opinion . I genuinely thought we’d be pushing nearer for promotion these last ridiculously disappointing couple of seasons . I think it’s very strange that you expect there to not be too much negativity when as a club we’re in our worst footballing period in our history, with ownership problems as well . You’re allowed your opinion and I’m allowed mine but if you snipe at fans you’re gonna get sniped back .
I can assure you at the games , where our support matters I’m behind the team as much as anyone and have been fortunate/unfortunate enough to have a season ticket every season since 1984 and will have one every season till I or the club dies . I’ve brainwashed my 4 sons in to being mad Addicks and that’s not great for them living in Essex surrounded by Spurs , West Ham ,Arsenal etc etc and of course they get grief and banter thrown at them as we all have I’m sure throughout our lives for supporting League One dross but they may not like it but are mature enough to be able to deal with it ,no one wants us to do well more than me and that’s for their sake as much as anyone’s cos all they’ve known is the torrid times since they were born . My eldest 17 year old is off to Exeter today with a fellow Addick, (I’ve groomed him since 6, he tried to support Liverpool) a man United fan and a spurs fan . I actively encourage them all to roar the team on at the games where it matters .
you dug me out a few weeks back when you were questioning how positive I would have been about beating Germany the year before in the Euros , when I pointed out I had us down as favourites ‘ 50% England win in 90 mins 30% draw (England 50 % win in ET 30% draw 20% Germany) if it gets to pens England 65% Germany 35% 20% Germany win in 90 min .
your comeback
“ lol giving us a 50/50 shot is fancying us?
Ok bud.
honestly I’m just a bit bored of your negativity and “predictions” either Say what you think will happen or don’t .
60% you get the hump and call me a twat 30% you engage and argue that 50% equals "fancying them" 9% you argue you're not negative all the time 1% you agree with me “
i don’t think a Charlton message board is the place to be at this point in time if negativity isn’t what you want and I will continue to say what I think will happen .
Good news I reckon we’ll draw or win at Exeter today !
Respectfully, I wasn't really trying to question your fan credentials (provoke a bit, yes sorry for that)- you have me beat completely - I'm just a tag along fan after 1998 and all that - I wasn't pushed into supporting Charlton i'm just a premier league plastic that couldn't ever quite shake the bug and fell in love with them despite my peers and family never getting it. No brainwashing required.
I take issue with your negativity, because it come across very "spursy" - I live in a tottenham town, I know it so well - saying you are a fan but taking every opportunity to slag the team off. As you say, it's a public message board, everyone should have the opportunity to say what they truly think and feel - I love that about this forum, it's why I continue to post here.
In that spirit, I also chose to say I dislike your way of expressing your opinion in percentages - the reason being that you aren't really actually expressing an opinion, you are basically fence sitting because you don't have any real confidence in expressing an actual opinion - we can argue over semantics but saying you think England will win 50% - but if we draw and go to extra time you think 50% we will win, but if we get to penalties well then its 65% and blah blah blah if the moon is high it's 32% if Rashford comes on it's 76% - its tedious, nonsense and non-committal - just pick a lane is that so hard??
I accept that this is a me problem, and you have every right to say you think we are shit. You can sit on the fence and give your percentages all day long but I reserve the right to say it's nonsense.
I will say I resent that you saying I "snipe at fans" - no I was sniping at you. No plural required.
If i think germany have a 20% chance of winning what fence do you seriously think I'm sitting on , you really do not understand betting or percentages , it's pretty clear I'm saying I fancy England to win
you snipe that i'm not positive , I am when i believe there a reason to be , not just for the sake of it flying in the face of reality
i was reasonably positive for our chances at the start of the last few seasons but i was wrong we've been pretty shit that's just the way it is but i guess i can't make the blind see
I'm very positive support wise in the ground , hope that helps .
If i think germany have a 20% chance of winning what fence do you seriously think I'm sitting on , you really do not understand betting or percentages , it's pretty clear I'm saying I fancy England to win
you snipe that i'm not positive , I am when i believe there a reason to be , not just for the sake of it flying in the face of reality
i was reasonably positive for our chances at the start of the last few seasons but i was wrong we've been pretty shit that's just the way it is but i guess i can't make the blind see
I'm very positive support wise in the ground , hope that helps .
We won’t get within 10 points of 6th why cos we’re shit in a shit league
3 wins in 4. Bore off so sick of negativity all the time just coz you're old enough to remember 1962 "in the good ol days" moan on the other threads honestly with fans like this who needs Milwall or Palace just do it for them.
I have to deal with people slagging my team off left and right all the time, I don't need to hear it from the people that support us. I just need a break for a change. So with respect, take the negativity elsewhere
The thread isn’t let’s live in cloud cuckoo land and pretend we’ll make the play offs it’s will we make the play offs
of course it could happen BUT my view is we will miss by a long way
what do you actually want a stream of lunatics saying yeah we should do it we’re smashimg great super
it’s our worst footballing period ever , negativity will abound , unfortunately that’s the real world whether you like it or not .
As a gesture of good will if we make the play offs and get promoted this season I’m buying you your season ticket next season to celebrate anywhere in the ground .
you can do whatever you like, i'll just be supporting the team and not saying they are shit at every opportunity.
I’m on a message board saying the reality as I see it of our situation , I’m not gonna pretend otherwise and if people wish to talk us up when we’re shit I’ll express my opinion . I genuinely thought we’d be pushing nearer for promotion these last ridiculously disappointing couple of seasons . I think it’s very strange that you expect there to not be too much negativity when as a club we’re in our worst footballing period in our history, with ownership problems as well . You’re allowed your opinion and I’m allowed mine but if you snipe at fans you’re gonna get sniped back .
I can assure you at the games , where our support matters I’m behind the team as much as anyone and have been fortunate/unfortunate enough to have a season ticket every season since 1984 and will have one every season till I or the club dies . I’ve brainwashed my 4 sons in to being mad Addicks and that’s not great for them living in Essex surrounded by Spurs , West Ham ,Arsenal etc etc and of course they get grief and banter thrown at them as we all have I’m sure throughout our lives for supporting League One dross but they may not like it but are mature enough to be able to deal with it ,no one wants us to do well more than me and that’s for their sake as much as anyone’s cos all they’ve known is the torrid times since they were born . My eldest 17 year old is off to Exeter today with a fellow Addick, (I’ve groomed him since 6, he tried to support Liverpool) a man United fan and a spurs fan . I actively encourage them all to roar the team on at the games where it matters .
you dug me out a few weeks back when you were questioning how positive I would have been about beating Germany the year before in the Euros , when I pointed out I had us down as favourites ‘ 50% England win in 90 mins 30% draw (England 50 % win in ET 30% draw 20% Germany) if it gets to pens England 65% Germany 35% 20% Germany win in 90 min .
your comeback
“ lol giving us a 50/50 shot is fancying us?
Ok bud.
honestly I’m just a bit bored of your negativity and “predictions” either Say what you think will happen or don’t .
60% you get the hump and call me a twat 30% you engage and argue that 50% equals "fancying them" 9% you argue you're not negative all the time 1% you agree with me “
i don’t think a Charlton message board is the place to be at this point in time if negativity isn’t what you want and I will continue to say what I think will happen .
Good news I reckon we’ll draw or win at Exeter today !
Respectfully, I wasn't really trying to question your fan credentials (provoke a bit, yes sorry for that)- you have me beat completely - I'm just a tag along fan after 1998 and all that - I wasn't pushed into supporting Charlton i'm just a premier league plastic that couldn't ever quite shake the bug and fell in love with them despite my peers and family never getting it. No brainwashing required.
I take issue with your negativity, because it come across very "spursy" - I live in a tottenham town, I know it so well - saying you are a fan but taking every opportunity to slag the team off. As you say, it's a public message board, everyone should have the opportunity to say what they truly think and feel - I love that about this forum, it's why I continue to post here.
In that spirit, I also chose to say I dislike your way of expressing your opinion in percentages - the reason being that you aren't really actually expressing an opinion, you are basically fence sitting because you don't have any real confidence in expressing an actual opinion - we can argue over semantics but saying you think England will win 50% - but if we draw and go to extra time you think 50% we will win, but if we get to penalties well then its 65% and blah blah blah if the moon is high it's 32% if Rashford comes on it's 76% - its tedious, nonsense and non-committal - just pick a lane is that so hard??
I accept that this is a me problem, and you have every right to say you think we are shit. You can sit on the fence and give your percentages all day long but I reserve the right to say it's nonsense.
I will say I resent that you saying I "snipe at fans" - no I was sniping at you. No plural required.
18% Like it and understand it 14% dislike it and can’t understand it 65% couldn’t give a flying fcuk 3% aren’t sure about them and will sit on the fence
And if the 10 point gap is suddenly 6/7 points we might have more of a sniff
Problem is we then start a run of very tough fixtures so would need to get some unexpected wins - not sure I see us getting much out of Sheff Wed or Derby away for example
Of the teams below us in the league this season we have taken 9 points from a possible 30 points from them.Four of those points came against Lincoln. Think about it Accrington ,Cheltenham, Fleetwood,Burton,Forest Green Rovers , Cambridge and MK Dons none of whom we have as yet beaten this season we still have to play. That’s play off form 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Think Not.
Still unable to beat Fleetwood , up next Forest Green Rovers Tuesday evening.
Started the year: 50 points required from 23 games = 2.17ppg
Currently: 38 points from 18 games = 2.11ppg required
Achieved: 12 points from our first 5 games of this year = 2.40ppg obtained
We're ahead of the run rate... just have to keep it up for another 18 games. :-)
12 points from 6 = 2.00 ppg
Required: 38 from 17 = 2.38 ppg
Unfortunately yesterday’s loss was a big blow and we’ve fallen behind the required rate with a tough run of fixtures coming up. We’re going to have to spring a few surprises to keep our season alive heading into March.
Would say 10th is highest position possible for us to finish now. Portsmouth finished 10th last season with 71 points.
We still need 22 points, from remaining 17 matches, to equal last season total of 59. Personally think we will probably just surpass that total, but why should anyone care (except anyone who backed us to finish top 12 in their ante post bets).
Comments
Think about it Accrington ,Cheltenham,
Fleetwood,Burton,Forest Green Rovers ,
Cambridge and MK Dons none of whom we have as yet beaten this season we still have to play. That’s play off form 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Think Not.
-number of times teams have to play direct competitors for play-off places (7 games of 18 for us)=6pointers
-number of times teams play teams really fighting for survival (of the 11 remaining games- at a guess 9 of these)
-number of times teams play teams that have been relegated before the end of the season (?? don't know/can't work this out atm)= games where one team has nothing to play for.
If we achieve an excellent run of 2 of every 3 points available, we come up just short of Louies 75pts, so even a good run we will not make it, we need a run of over 2pts out of 3, which is Roy of the Rovers stuff.
Come On You Reds
Though don't tell Dean Hol .....whatisname.
It's not that we would need 75 points, more like need 1 point more or better GD than the team finishing 7th.
Like you, I'm not expecting us to make 6th place ...... but other teams doing well at the moment may slip away.
Past seasons indicate some teams do.
That's the lottery of it all. Nobody knows right now.
And at this stage of the season, it's all still to play for.
Obviously this meant that points targets were brought down to the more short term - and perhaps more achievable in the players' mind.
Whether Holden does things the same way, I wouldn't know ..... but he'll ensure the target points are achievable in the short term and psychologically not a huge mountain to climb.
75 points? He'll just set his stall out to win the next game. One game at a time.
I take issue with your negativity, because it come across very "spursy" - I live in a tottenham town, I know it so well - saying you are a fan but taking every opportunity to slag the team off. As you say, it's a public message board, everyone should have the opportunity to say what they truly think and feel - I love that about this forum, it's why I continue to post here.
In that spirit, I also chose to say I dislike your way of expressing your opinion in percentages - the reason being that you aren't really actually expressing an opinion, you are basically fence sitting because you don't have any real confidence in expressing an actual opinion - we can argue over semantics but saying you think England will win 50% - but if we draw and go to extra time you think 50% we will win, but if we get to penalties well then its 65% and blah blah blah if the moon is high it's 32% if Rashford comes on it's 76% - its tedious, nonsense and non-committal - just pick a lane is that so hard??
I accept that this is a me problem, and you have every right to say you think we are shit. You can sit on the fence and give your percentages all day long but I reserve the right to say it's nonsense.
I will say I resent that you saying I "snipe at fans" - no I was sniping at you. No plural required.
If i think germany have a 20% chance of winning what fence do you seriously think I'm sitting on , you really do not understand betting or percentages , it's pretty clear I'm saying I fancy England to win
you snipe that i'm not positive , I am when i believe there a reason to be , not just for the sake of it flying in the face of reality
i was reasonably positive for our chances at the start of the last few seasons but i was wrong we've been pretty shit that's just the way it is but i guess i can't make the blind see
I'm very positive support wise in the ground , hope that helps .
18% Like it and understand it
14% dislike it and can’t understand it
65% couldn’t give a flying fcuk
3% aren’t sure about them and will sit on the fence
And if the 10 point gap is suddenly 6/7 points we might have more of a sniff
Problem is we then start a run of very tough fixtures so would need to get some unexpected wins - not sure I see us getting much out of Sheff Wed or Derby away for example
Thumbs up to the traveling fans on Tuesday.
NEVER!
Required: 38 from 17 = 2.38 ppg
Unfortunately yesterday’s loss was a big blow and we’ve fallen behind the required rate with a tough run of fixtures coming up. We’re going to have to spring a few surprises to keep our season alive heading into March.
More chance of getting relegated.
We dont beat the bottom sides so those will be pointers which we will fail to win, starting on Tuesday against FGR.
Think we will end up with around 60-62 points and end up 14th-16th
We still need 22 points, from remaining 17 matches, to equal last season total of 59. Personally think we will probably just surpass that total, but why should anyone care (except anyone who backed us to finish top 12 in their ante post bets).