Been overseas for last 4 weeks, but have been reading this with great interest. I have a question for the Aussies and everyone here,after seeing our player loans and our performances since the window closed would you bet £45/£50mn now on us going up this year?
Rumours are there are Chinese sniffing around and Mcleish/Muir syndicate have pulled out, leaving Aussies in driving seat, but what is their or anyones rush.
Roland is losing £750,000 a month ,team can't score goals,Manager too indecisive on selection and substitutions causing us to stumble every time we try to pick up momentum.
I would now wait until season is over, save 3/4 months of losses,clear out players I don't want,appoint a Manager to get his own squad and get us out of this League next year.
Why have Aussies not closed out a deal yet? they supposedly were the group that did DD in October, and some say agreed a deal.Did Roland then shop around to get a better deal so they sat back and said take it or leave it, and they still have best offer on the table?
Who knows really whats going on other than Roland and maybe Murray, but any sensible business man now would wait,what is the rush with window closed and team so inconsistent.
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On the admin and ground side normal, well run clubs will be setting ticket prices, planning refurbishments and repairs, cleaning lounges and seats, buying new equipment, re-negotiating catering and shop deals, planning kit launches.
At Charlton there is the added need to actually start some building work at the training ground.
Buyers could wait to the summer to start all that or they could start now and give themselves a proper lead in time.
They also might believe that a takeover would boost chances of promotion with a positive vibe and bigger gates.
They could even want to change the manager and give the new guy a longer time to prepare for the summer.
So lots of good reasons to buy now.
Whether they see those as important or as more important as waiting to get the right deal from Duchatelet I have no idea.
I can quite believe that at least one party has said "here's our offer, we're leaving it on the table, it's up to you to accept it or not but we're not upping it and we're not walking away".
If I wanted to buy a London Club with a Premier League Ground ,with a local Council that is generally supportive of said Club , then I might leave my bid on the table if I was confident that no one would beat it,or I was in no mad rush anymore as window closed.
As much as I want to see change now, why would any new investors accept an on-going financial loss situation when they are powerless to improve their prospects until the Summer?
We know DD took place but threw up 34 issues (at least one of which is to my certain knowledge not resolved although it might be considered so minor by some as to not need addressing).
So even if DD was done it would have thrown up issues and the buyer and seller couldn't agree on a price and payment structure.
You're right that the transfer window closing removes one reason for haste from the buyer but, as you again say, the losses give Duchatelet many hundreds of thousands of reasons to get the deal done sooner rather than later.
I would hope the new buyers are here for the long term and also know they will lose money early on. For those reasons they maybe keen to get started and have a long lead in time for a summer of major activity at the Valley and at Sparrows Lane.
WIOTOS
Sources also say Ex Directors Loans have to be sorted and Duchatalet is not paying, maybe that was the major stumbling block in 34 issues?
If you were in it for long term why lose money with Duchatalet's Manager and Squad,what is the mad rush, wait until he is hurting more financially than he is now and strike a better deal in May.
Deal in principal agreed in October, with some conditions,that is true.
Whether another two, three or six months of losses is enough to get him to drop his terms we don't know.
The ex-directors bonds don't have to be sorted in the sense of them being paid. There is an option to roll them over again. Whether that happens is up to the new owners and the ex-directors to agree but can't see why Duchatelet would pay them either way.
Deal now or deal in May. Buyers may all walk away leaving Duchatelet holding the baby or on the other side Duchatelet may sell to another buyer leaving the current front runners with no club. It's a game of poker.
"Deal in principal agreed in October, with some conditions,that is true" Source for that?
it would tie with the "imminent" story from October but why are you so sure?
Its not 2 or 3 months that will get him to drop the price thats just the starting point, its the thought of owning for another season with no recognised Finance Director or CEO and having to support Manager and Squad to keep it saleable.
Ex Directors Loans can be rolled over if a buyer is happy to buy with Equity Injection or Subordinated Loans without first call on assets.If they want to clear charges it will cost them £7mn or part thereof if any Ex Director is mad enough to take a discount, when they hold the assets.
Maybe frontrunners are gambling on their bid based on due diligence etc and as you say playing Poker willing to walk if someone pays more.
My sources I cannot expose for obvious reasons, but like Rick are well placed to know the facts, ask yourself if it ties in with the imminent story from October ,why has no deal been done.
Its a waiting game and maybe your Poker analogy is correct.
It is a First Charge over all Assets (A Mortgage by any other name) repayable in Premier League ,but cost of removing £7mn if you want Club free of all debts if you are financing with debt yourselves, or part thereof as I stated if some prepared to take a discount.
Another thing I would say is that the club doesn’t lose the same amount each month, because its cashflow is irregular. For example there is no gate money in the summer and central payments are made at particular times of the year.
The Aussie Muir was/is that party.
One piece of speculation put to me a few weeks ago was that RD has set himself a deadline (hence the talk of it being done by February from Murray and Keohane) to find a better offer or go back the bid on the table from A Muir.
We know now that D Muir et al have walked away so now Duchatelet can take the Aussie bird in hand (the "done deal") or Red Henry's Mysterons (another "done deal").
Or maybe he thinks it's not enough and believes that they is still a better offer out there to be done and is willing to hang on?
When it's on the OS.
Maybe RD is hoping RedHenry's group will match the A Muir bid which could be the 'done deal' but perhaps this is the 'prefered bidder' if they have deeper pockets than A Muir's bid.
Just a theory, no inside info.