Champions Reality Or Rose Tinted ?

RaplhMilne

Before a ball was kicked this season the bookies best odds were:

Sunderland 3/1 Champions Evens promotion
Barnsley 17/2 &11/4
Charlton 12/1 & 9/2
Portsmouth 14/1 & 9/2
Peterborough 16/1 & 5/1
Luton 17/1 @ 6/1

At that time we had a depleted squad. Up front Grant ( a striker we had little faith in) Taylor (unproven) Academy kids in the team and filling the bench, only 1 keeper, a temporary manager. Backing us at 12/1 or 9/2 would have been an act of madness, only the most extreme optimists could believe this was any value or remotely possible.

Following yesterday's fixtures odds are:

Sunderland 3/1 & Evens
Barnsley 7/2 & Evens
Charlton 25/1 & 6/1
Portsmouth 9/2 &13/8
Peterborough 11/1 &3/1
Luton 25/1 & 7/1 And Doncaster at 16/1 and Fleetwood at 25/1 for Champions


So where are now we have a larger squad, with players back from injury giving us choices. Upfront Grant and Taylor who are starting to look like a strike partnership, Vetokele and Ajose as backups. Two competent keepers and Competion for places on the bench.

The season saw a slow start with defeats to two of our main rivals Sunderland and Peterborough both by a late injury time goal, and both losing us a game where we deserved at least a draw. Neither of these games, when we were in a relatively weaker state than today, showed either Sunderland or Peterborough to be superior to us.

The last three fixtures see Charlton winning three games on the trot with two of them away.
Sunderland two home draws and an away defeat.
Peterborough home draw, home defeat, away win
Portsmouth home win, home draw, away win.
Barnsley home win, home draw, away defeat
Luton away draw, away defeat, home win.

This Leauge hasn't been this open for some years, whilst any one of these teams could become a SheffUtd,Wigan or Blackburn and go clear. That team is as likely to be CHARLTON as any of the others.

So taking all this into account, we can see the bookmakers were way off a true price for Charlton to win the leauge, or get promoted at the start of the season. However, they are now equally way off. when we appear to have built a squad that resolves those early season issues, we have strikers who score, we are winning games How can we be double the price !

Is this a great opportunity to fill your boots at 25/1 each way and 6/1 promotion and take the kids to Disneyland or the girlfriend to Las Vegas ! I think it is .

What do you think ???

AFKABartram

We are all very results sensitive and we’ve had a couple of good ones. But there are also six teams who have had a better start than us and whose fans will currently be thinking exactly the same.

25/1 each way for top three (6.25) looks viable to me. But had we lost instead of won yesterday we would currently be outside the top 10 and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

cafcfan1990

25/1 is a decent price but it's still ridiculously early. Squad probably isn't any worse then the one Bowyer inherited and got into the Play Offs but we still look weak down the flanks and reliant on 1/2 staying fit for at least 35+ games.

clb74

AFKABartram said:

We are all very results sensitive and we’ve had a couple of good ones. But there are also six teams who have had a better start than us and whose fans will currently be thinking exactly the same.

25/1 each way for top three (6.25) looks viable to me. But had we lost instead of won yesterday we would currently be outside the top 10 and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

Don't talk wet.
We went to Sunderland with barely a midfield and gave them a run for their money.
We was always going to get a couple of midfielders back from injury and we've strengthened with a couple of loans.
Can see us pushing the top 2

thenewbie

I can see us pushing for automatic promotion. I can also see us having to fight for the last play off place just as realistically. We are currently in a streak of good form but streaks break, and we will be going two, three or four without a win at some point especially if we get unlucky with injuries.

Covered End

You can still get 1/3 with betvictor for us to finish top half.
I don't believe we won't, but have already backed us twice at 8/11 & 8/12.

25/1 e/w for promotion at 1/4 odds, also seems good value, but I'm not certain we'll be promoted.
I am certain we'll finish top half.

killerandflash

Those odds look pretty generous for us. Or rather, they look generous when compared to the other clubs. Are Barnsley so good as to be evens for promotion for example, especially when they haven't played anyone decent yet.

Athletico Charlton

Pile in then wait until Jan as RD sells our best assets to recoup losses and players lose fight as they enter the last 6 months of their contracts. We have a chance but plenty of ways to screw it up.

HandG

Having points on the board and an encouraging start is great but it’s a 46 game season and, as campaigns recently gone by have proved, a bad run could be just around the corner.

It would be amazing to think of us as Championship contenders but it’s far too early to talk about it. Let’s have the conversation again in six months....

RaplhMilne

HandG said:

Having points on the board and an encouraging start is great but it’s a 46 game season and, as campaigns recently gone by have proved, a bad run could be just around the corner.

It would be amazing to think of us as Championship contenders but it’s far too early to talk about it. Let’s have the conversation again in six months....

The point is in six months when you are more convinced it's going to happen, we will be the 3/1 that Sunderland are today. The opportunity is now, that with our inside knowledge of our own club, do we believe that the 25/1 price is a true reflection of our true chance in winning this leauge. Yes we will lose games and have some bad runs. But, win our next two and we could be 8/1, lose two after that we could be 16/1. Waitimg until it's obvious to everybody we are contenders, means you will be backing us at the short price.

thenewbie

25/1 seems pretty accurate tbh. Yes we are in good form right now but the owner's shitbaggery is well known and if anyone can seize disaster from the jaws of triumph its Roland.

Dazzler21

We are not champion material right now.

Lincsaddick

reality ..

letthegoodtimesroll

Dazzler21 said:

We are not champion material right now.

Is any team in the League ?

Cardinal Sin

Some people are forgetting our owner's track record and his desperation to get every penny he can from the club. He is more than likely to look to sell anyone he can who has managed to attract interest come January. Ricky Holmes a classic example.

ForeverAddickted

Cardinal Sin said:

Some people are forgetting our owner's track record and his desperation to get every penny he can from the club. He is more than likely to look to sell anyone he can who has managed to attract interest come January. Ricky Holmes a classic example.

Joe Aribo and Karlan Grant being the prime contenters for departing in January at this rate

Redhenry

Just had 20 quid @ 25/1

MuttleyCAFC

i think the late additions surprised a few of us, and Bowyer is certainly doing a good job but it is too early for us to get carried away. With a bit of bad luck we could have lost every game this year, with a little bit of good luck we could have won every game. We have probably had even ish luck so far. When we win and that can't be said we will be on our way. With luck with injuries and Fosu returning, that may happen but at this time we should be happy with our start.

Redhenry

If we don't suffer too many injuries and we keep or replace Cullen in Jan, it's top two for me.

Chris_from_Sidcup

Still very early days, teams are still finding their feet and have only played 2-3 games since the loan window closed.

Last season Blackburn for example started really slowly, won only 7 of their first 15 games up until November and then look what happened. You also had Plymouth flirting with the relegation zone for about 4 months and still nearly making the play offs.

I know it's easy to get carried away after a few wins but let's not forget that the only 2 decent sides (and by that i mean likely top 6 sides) we've faced..........have beaten us. Regardless of whether we did or didn't deserve to lose, we still did.

We also failed to beat Fleetwood (8th) and Accrington (10th).

Our wins have come against Shrewsbury (17th), Southend (18th), Wycombe (19th) and Bradford (21st). Don't get me wrong the signs are promising once we get everyone fit and available, but talk of being champions after we've beaten 4 of the bottom 8 sides is way way premature.

HandG

RaplhMilne said:

HandG said:

Having points on the board and an encouraging start is great but it’s a 46 game season and, as campaigns recently gone by have proved, a bad run could be just around the corner.

It would be amazing to think of us as Championship contenders but it’s far too early to talk about it. Let’s have the conversation again in six months....

The point is in six months when you are more convinced it's going to happen, we will be the 3/1 that Sunderland are today. The opportunity is now, that with our inside knowledge of our own club, do we believe that the 25/1 price is a true reflection of our true chance in winning this leauge. Yes we will lose games and have some bad runs. But, win our next two and we could be 8/1, lose two after that we could be 16/1. Waitimg until it's obvious to everybody we are contenders, means you will be backing us at the short price.

Fair enough-having supported Charlton for a long time and having a good inside knowledge of the club, my conclusion is 25-1 is a fair price and I would keep your money in your pocket!


Happy to be wrong come May though.....

StigThundercock

Bow has fostered a few good results against lowly opposition, the squad is a bit less threadbare in September than in August. Talk of a top few finish is fanciful nonsense. The one big problem remains with no realistic prospect of that changing. Should any players maintain decent form they’ll be up for sale the minute the window opens, add to them the players approaching contract’s end who’ll go for any money at all. By 1 February the squad will be just as thin as it was last month. Bow’s good but not a wizard. Then there’s roly’s special brand of extra lunatic behaviour and determination to undermine anything positive at CAFC. Enjoy the good games as and when they crop up but FFS don’t pin anything on a successful season. That way only heartache and madness lie - it’s not like we’ve not been warned.

MuttleyCAFC

That is a danger, as is injuries or loss of form to key players. We don't yet feel invincible and it is one thing beating the poorer sides - of which there are a fair number - but another beating the better ones which we will need to do for a top two place. I'd like to see more goals spread around the team and more clean sheets. Then I will start believing. Having said that, a play off place is reasonably likely.

LenGlover

Sadly any outstanding individuals will be sold in January which will scupper it.

I think there is more likelihood of Richard Murray running naked round the pitch at half time instead of the cross bar challenge than a Takeover happening anytime soon.

Davo55

Redhenry said:

If we don't suffer too many injuries and we keep or replace Cullen in Jan, it's top two for me.

I'm not so optimistic but I do agree that Cullen seems to be a critical factor. Even if we could replace him, there is always some disruption from a change in personnel, with a new player having to bed in. We really need to secure him for the whole season to maximise our chances. Hopefully he is enjoying himself here and getting good game time and all parties will be happy to extend the deal.

Nicholas

Looking good at the minute keep everyone fit and it should be a race for top spot between us, Pompey, Peter, Barnsley and Sunderland.

bobcafc7

Davo55 said:

Redhenry said:

If we don't suffer too many injuries and we keep or replace Cullen in Jan, it's top two for me.

I'm not so optimistic but I do agree that Cullen seems to be a critical factor. Even if we could replace him, there is always some disruption from a change in personnel, with a new player having to bed in. We really need to secure him for the whole season to maximise our chances. Hopefully he is enjoying himself here and getting good game time and all parties will be happy to extend the deal.

It’s for the season, ward is January.

killerandflash

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Still very early days, teams are still finding their feet and have only played 2-3 games since the loan window closed.

Last season Blackburn for example started really slowly, won only 7 of their first 15 games up until November and then look what happened. You also had Plymouth flirting with the relegation zone for about 4 months and still nearly making the play offs.

I know it's easy to get carried away after a few wins but let's not forget that the only 2 decent sides (and by that i mean likely top 6 sides) we've faced..........have beaten us. Regardless of whether we did or didn't deserve to lose, we still did.

We also failed to beat Fleetwood (8th) and Accrington (10th).

Our wins have come against Shrewsbury (17th), Southend (18th), Wycombe (19th) and Bradford (21st). Don't get me wrong the signs are promising once we get everyone fit and available, but talk of being champions after we've beaten 4 of the bottom 8 sides is way way premature.

True, but the same applies to Barnsley who've beaten nobody decent, and indeed played nobody decent, yet are 7/2 to be champions! Are Portsmouth (9/2) really that much better than us (25/1)?

As for injuries etc, well that applies to all the other teams as well. Luton (also 25/1 to be champions) have just lost O'Kane for the season

palarsehater

8 games in 38 to play ffs! our next 5 are

plymouth h
luton a
scunthorpe a
coventry h
walsall a

3 wins from 5 of them and ill maybe agree

being charlton the sort of game we will lose is saturday a plymouth side 3 points after 8 games.

Chris_from_Sidcup

There is the possibility (although probably slim) that if we are in contention in January, then RD won't sell anyone.

Surely even someone as clueless about football as he is, could be persuaded by Bowyer that it's worth waiting to see if you can get promotion, and with it a much better chance of selling the club, than shipping out x & y and ending up 8th.

I'd like to think that would happen........but it could also be the most naive post i've ever written on this site.

Davo55

bobcafc7 said:

Davo55 said:

Redhenry said:

If we don't suffer too many injuries and we keep or replace Cullen in Jan, it's top two for me.

I'm not so optimistic but I do agree that Cullen seems to be a critical factor. Even if we could replace him, there is always some disruption from a change in personnel, with a new player having to bed in. We really need to secure him for the whole season to maximise our chances. Hopefully he is enjoying himself here and getting good game time and all parties will be happy to extend the deal.

It’s for the season, ward is January.

Ok, thanks. I had not understood that. Good news.