So, assuming he's fit to run on 6 April, then-11 y-o ABOLITIONIST should line up with his current chase rating of 145. That mark would have given him 10-08 last April had injury not intervened.
Comfy hurdles win over 3m on his seasonal debut a month ago - off a low mark but pleasing return from his injury lay-off nonetheless - he by-passes the Becher Chase and will not have his qualifying chase run until after the GN weights are published.
• Never out of the frame in 9 chases at 3m+ (3 wins and 5 <5L), on a variety of going
• 3rd to the sadly-departed Our Duke in the 2017 Irish GN
• No F or UR in 19 chases
• Bucketloads of stamina in his pedigree
Many a slip twixt cup and lip but WH's 50/1 ante post (4 places 1/4) tickles my fancy.
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Peanuts is back
Allo
Allo
And so it begins.
A big welcome as always Peanuts.
My annual bonus thread!
Abolitionist is on the watchlist after last year's injury, and another I'll be considering is Baie des Iles, who was hampered pretty badly last year to finish weakly. A lot went against her statistically and in terms of trends then, too - at 40/1 I'm quite happy to have a small piece, but I don't know if that'll move very much any time soon, and there is unlikely to be a sea change from that sort of price to 12s like there was last year.
Very rare for me to take a price this early but WH a clear outlier on Abolitionist and, with the race the definite target, ground pretty much irrelevant, weight guaranteed to be very appealing, assuming he makes the cut (would have, just about, in every GN in living memory), obviously the main issue will be his well-being and fitness. Newland knows how to get them race-ready - fingers crossed his steed stays sound.
Edit - Cut to 40s
You are the nuts Peanuts. Will be avidly reading.
Welcome back Mr Peanuts - the return of the Aintree King
Welcome back peanuts
I put it all on Abolitionist - £10 to win.
Peanuts:
To win? I said place! "Place it on Abolitionist-" That horse is gonna run second!
Cabbles:
[runs horrified to the betting booth] There's been a mistake! I want my money back!
(for lovers of The Sting!)
Have to caution all who very kindly place so much faith in my Aintree musings that I don't have a model for the Becher but I'll certainly have a nibble as usual. Some very interesting possible debutants over the fences going against some Becher stalwarts.
Can't see it live - at the panto, believe it or not................... she who must be obeyed!
Or, more conspiratorially*, are there "marked" accounts deemed reliable/in the know that when a bet is put on, flags are raised? (Sort of similar to how Hugh Taylor's prices evaporate immediately)
I've taken 40-1 (5 places E/W 1/4) with @bobmunro 's lot on Abolitionist.
The 2 Twiston-Davies runners certainly merit being at the head of the market but there's some serious opposition from some who outperform over these fences and other quality staying chasers making their Aintree debut. 9 of the 18-runners declared at 12/1 or shorter reflects the competitiveness of the race.
As ever, it's a search for e/w value for me and, given the likely Soft ground, 33/1 for REGAL FLOW (Bet365 4 places 1/4 NRNB) ticks my box.
3m+ on Soft or softer are his conditions (4 wins, 2 close-2nds and a UR when about to win from 8 such chases since 2016) and it will be the first time he's had them since his very impressive Midlands National win last March (if memory serves, I think you had him that day @PaddyP17). He has a 5lb higher mark on Saturday (OR 140) but he ran respectably off 143 on GS last time out and he wasn't stopping after 4 miles at Uttoxeter.
Weight isn't a stopper in this but the balance of winners' stats since 2010 tends to favour runners with <11.00 and he'll carry just 10.06.
Will he handle the fences? We'll find out of course but in 22 chases he's failed to complete only twice (a soft F early in his chasing career and a UR from a stumble, leading and going well late on).
Same in reverse of course
Lumping on now, having just had a four-timer on the first four races today, including Adjali. He's now 8/1 for the Triumph at Cheltenham, and I'm sitting very prettily on 20s!
I've had an unbelievably hot streak lately and will give a few thoughts on the Becher on race day.