not over till its over but we are relying on 3 decent outfits in this league to suddenly have a few bad games, sunderland would of knocked the wind out of them saturday, but i think barnsley will just about do enough.
I don't think we will catch Barnsley. Sunderland or Pompey might, we won't. Although we could catch both of them.
If we beat Oxford we are as good as guaranteed 5th as a minimum. If we win our next 2 and Barnsley draw one, all bets are off.
It could be the losser of the pompy Sunderland game will be the 1st of the 4 to know they can't finish 2nd, which could be an advantage as in the pressure is off for the last 2 games, rest some players and have time to get over it. It's likely that at least 2 teams will still have a chance on the final day and not go up. If its by dropping points them selves, that could be crushing, and be easy pickings in the play offs.
If I had to predict it
Sunderland 2nd Barnsley 3rd Us 4th Pompy 5th Doncaster 6th
We beat Donny in the final after Barnsley implode in the play offs having thrown it away on the last day.
Won't happen. A) we have to win ALL our games and we need 3 other teams, in a better position than us, to mess up.
I think we finish 4th...
(1) Is quite possible; i.e. Oxford will be difficult but apart from two games under Slade and Robinson we've won every game at Oxford since 1991 - Scunthorpe we usually do well against @ the Valley despite being rubbish at Glanford Park; Gillingham could be the challenging one whilst you'd hope that Rochdale arent in a position like last year as they can owe us one
As for the second point;
Sunderland v Portsmouth will guarantee one of them dropping points whilst the latter also have a game in hand on us which comes against Peterborough - Our future could be decided by then but at the same time a win for Posh could still keep their Play-Off hopes alive; not to mention Portsmouth now have to face Burton and Coventry (two sides who are going to be very different to the five they've just beaten)
Barnsley are the concern; they've lost Kieffer Moore and are stuttering over the line a bit without his goals; you look at their run in and they themselves could easily pick up four wins, especially wonder if Barton's actions are the type of thing that really unites a team and is the kick up the arse that Barnsley needed to push them on
The chance we've got though is whilst it looks simple on paper is the fact that none of those three will concentrate on their own futures... We've got no one behind us to be worried about, all three do, just look a Molinari in the golf yesterday, he knew he had Woods breathing down his neck so started to make mistakes
I can see us finishing 3rd or 4th which gives us the home leg 2nd in the Play-Offs which helps but a look at the remaining fixtures suggests to me that Barnsley are now clear favourites to take 2nd place. I hope I'm wrong however and we can sneak it.
not over till its over but we are relying on 3 decent outfits in this league to suddenly have a few bad games, sunderland would of knocked the wind out of them saturday, but i think barnsley will just about do enough.
If they were that good they would have wrapped up promotion long ago and left us for dust. They will drop points, we won’t.
Looking at form over the last six games, we are top. Barnsley are down in 11th with 2 wins and 3 draws. If the form over the remaining games emulates that, we must be in with a chance.
We just have to finish 2nd coz I’m out of action for the play-offs. Have surgery coming up in 4- 6 weeks (awaiting actual date) which will mean probably I can’t attend the play offs
If we win (and it’s a big IF) our remaining 4 games and due to the teams above us having a superior goal difference, as it stands Barnsley could only afford to drop 3pts Sunderland and Portsmouth 4pts in their remaining fixtures to finish above us so where could those dropped point come from? Barnsley h v Shrewsbury a v Plymouth h v Blackpool a v Bristol R
Sunderland h v Doncaster R a v Peterborough h v Portsmouth a v Fleetwood a v Southend
Portsmouth a v Burton h v Coventry a v Sunderland h v Peterborough a v Accrington
personally I think it will be decided on the last day of the season with a few twist and turns and nail biting moments during the game
If we win (and it’s a big IF) our remaining 4 games and due to the teams above us having a superior goal difference, as it stands Barnsley could only afford to drop 3pts Sunderland and Portsmouth 4pts in their remaining fixtures so where could those dropped point come from? Barnsley h v Shrewsbury a v Plymouth h v Blackpool a v Bristol R
Sunderland h v Doncaster a v Peterborough h v Portsmouth a v Fleetwood a v Southend
Portsmouth a v Burton h v Coventry a v Sunderland h v Peterborough a v Accrington
personally I think it will be decided on the last day of the season with a few twist and turns and nail biting moments during the game
Games in bold that I think we need to rely on
Not saying all will go our way but I dont see Bristol Rovers or Accrington being able to help
I don't think we'll do it, but it's going to be close. The away games are going to be hard, Robinson and a local(ish) derby aren't matches we need right now. It would have been better if they were at home and the 2 home games were the away matches...
From looking out of it, one win (and Sunderland's defeat) has completely turned things around for Barnsley, and their run in looks better than that of Sunderland and Pompey too. The stat guy Ben Mayhew has them as favourites for 2nd
I believe it's possible we can jump ahead of Sunderland and Pompey but Barnsley have easier games, similar to ours.
They will beat Shrewsbury at home and win at least one of the other three games to get to 88 points. If they win a third game, they are no longer catchable based on goal difference.
Let's hope Plymouth, Blackpool and Bristol Rovers are up for it and they drop two games from those three.
Oxford away will be tough they have been playing well and no doubt fat boy Robbo will be up fo it.
This, I do not think Oxford or Gillingham will be the walk in the park people are predicting.
Are they better than Luton then ?
The big difference is, Luton came to the Valley to win, just like Pompey, Barnsley, and Sunderland. They left gaps at the back, just like we did 1st half against Luton until Bowyer tweaked the positions at HT and we dominated the 2nd half with Bielik and Williams running riot, and our other flair players enjoyed the space.
Oxford could be tough to break down with the expected 4231 formation and Gillingham with Tom Eaves fit this time (missing at the Valley this term) may emulate his form in our home fixture last season.
Only our A game and lady luck with injuries will get us to 91 points. The price at the bookies reflect our chances.
Oxford away will be tough they have been playing well and no doubt fat boy Robbo will be up fo it.
This, I do not think Oxford or Gillingham will be the walk in the park people are predicting.
Are they better than Luton then ?
The big difference is, Luton came to the Valley to win, just like Pompey, Barnsley, and Sunderland. They left gaps at the back, just like we did 1st half against Luton until Bowyer tweaked the positions at HT and we dominated the 2nd half with Bielik and Williams running riot, and our other flair players enjoyed the space.
Oxford could be tough to break down with the expected 4231 formation and Gillingham with Tom Eaves fit this time (missing at the Valley this term) may emulate his form in our home fixture last season.
Only our A game and lady luck with injuries will get us to 91 points. The price at the bookies reflect our chances.
Only hope that this time Eaves wont be a threat because we'll have a Centre-Back of Bauer and Sarr
Bit different to the one he terrorised at the Valley on New Year Day last season
Regardless though he does still have 2-goals to his name this term so will be a problem to be dealt with
If we go back to Red Midlands original predictions and factoring in results that have happened since - Pompey are two points better off than predicted so far so scheduled for 91 points, Sunderland are four points worse off so scheduled for 86, Barnsley are three points down and are scheduled for 90.
Out of interest, we are 5 points up and scheduled for 89. But it does demonstrate how 91 points has a more than decent chance of being enough. It is going to be around that number.
oxford are on a great run plus there scouse cnut of a manager will want to do one over us.
scunthorpe are scrapping for mathematical safety.
gills to them we are there local derby and if they can get one over us they will be happy and would likely nail on safety for them, this is presuming they lose there next 2 games.
rochdale may need something from the game.
bar oxford we are playing teams that need the points.
Comments
Won't happen. A) we have to win ALL our games and
we need 3 other teams, in a better position than us, to mess up.
I think we finish 4th...
If we beat Oxford we are as good as guaranteed 5th as a minimum. If we win our next 2 and Barnsley draw one, all bets are off.
It could be the losser of the pompy Sunderland game will be the 1st of the 4 to know they can't finish 2nd, which could be an advantage as in the pressure is off for the last 2 games, rest some players and have time to get over it. It's likely that at least 2 teams will still have a chance on the final day and not go up. If its by dropping points them selves, that could be crushing, and be easy pickings in the play offs.
If I had to predict it
Sunderland 2nd
Barnsley 3rd
Us 4th
Pompy 5th
Doncaster 6th
We beat Donny in the final after Barnsley implode in the play offs having thrown it away on the last day.
Luton 97
Barnsley 94
Charlton 91
Portsmouth 89
Sunderland 87
Doncaster 79
is how I have it now.
As for the second point;
Sunderland v Portsmouth will guarantee one of them dropping points whilst the latter also have a game in hand on us which comes against Peterborough - Our future could be decided by then but at the same time a win for Posh could still keep their Play-Off hopes alive; not to mention Portsmouth now have to face Burton and Coventry (two sides who are going to be very different to the five they've just beaten)
Barnsley are the concern; they've lost Kieffer Moore and are stuttering over the line a bit without his goals; you look at their run in and they themselves could easily pick up four wins, especially wonder if Barton's actions are the type of thing that really unites a team and is the kick up the arse that Barnsley needed to push them on
The chance we've got though is whilst it looks simple on paper is the fact that none of those three will concentrate on their own futures... We've got no one behind us to be worried about, all three do, just look a Molinari in the golf yesterday, he knew he had Woods breathing down his neck so started to make mistakes
Barnsley
h v Shrewsbury
a v Plymouth
h v Blackpool
a v Bristol R
Sunderland
h v Doncaster R
a v Peterborough
h v Portsmouth
a v Fleetwood
a v Southend
Portsmouth
a v Burton
h v Coventry
a v Sunderland
h v Peterborough
a v Accrington
personally I think it will be decided on the last day of the season with a few twist and turns and nail biting moments during the game
Not saying all will go our way but I dont see Bristol Rovers or Accrington being able to help
From looking out of it, one win (and Sunderland's defeat) has completely turned things around for Barnsley, and their run in looks better than that of Sunderland and Pompey too. The stat guy Ben Mayhew has them as favourites for 2nd
Oxford could be tough to break down with the expected 4231 formation and Gillingham with Tom Eaves fit this time (missing at the Valley this term) may emulate his form in our home fixture last season.
Only our A game and lady luck with injuries will get us to 91 points. The price at the bookies reflect our chances.
Bit different to the one he terrorised at the Valley on New Year Day last season
Regardless though he does still have 2-goals to his name this term so will be a problem to be dealt with
Out of interest, we are 5 points up and scheduled for 89. But it does demonstrate how 91 points has a more than decent chance of being enough. It is going to be around that number.
Must be why 3 of Man City's 4 league defeats this season came against Leicester, Palace and Newcastle.
Must also be why bookmakers don't make any money then. The favourites always win don't they?
scunthorpe are scrapping for mathematical safety.
gills to them we are there local derby and if they can get one over us they will be happy and would likely nail on safety for them, this is presuming they lose there next 2 games.
rochdale may need something from the game.
bar oxford we are playing teams that need the points.