Was gonna comment in the golf thread but nah, it’s US Open week. I fell asleep near the end last night so I doubt I’ll manage the finish this weekend, I’m going to have to plan some strategic naps.
Apparently it’s been fairly wet at Pebble recently which will help prevent the poa greens bobbling & keep them to 12-ish on the stimpmeter. I am ALWAYS up for carnage at the US Open but I don’t think it’ll get too silly as pampered PGA Tour players continue to whine about it being ‘too hard’. Golf Digest published this recently and it’s 50+ guys moaning about the USGA, to the point they considered a boycott: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/usga-confidential
Yeah boo-hoo, your wedges don’t stop and stick like they do every other week. The Euros come out of that looking better (Fitzpatrick is the one referencing Bryson calling Shinnecock ‘clown golf’). As Nicklaus used to say, if you ever heard someone complain then they were not going to win… And you won’t hear Brooks Koepka moaning this week.
I’ll say DJ to win but I put small sums on Schauffele, Leishman and Webb Simpson.
Comments
Yeah after T50 yesterday he’s in the usual Koepka form – didn’t touch a club between the PGA and Canada, annoyed people by saying he was only there for a warmup, then will inevitably go low this week. Other players will whine about conditions & fairness and he’ll just get on with it and Brooks everyone.
Pebble’s far shorter than Bethpage though so it brings more potential winners into the equation, so his odds are bad. It should be a nice varied leaderboard rather than bomber heavy.
Im going for :
Schauffele
Matsuyama
Cantlay
Bjerreguard
Small EW- punts
also following closely Finnau, Garcia & Wallace (auction)
Dechambeau main bet (50/1), and a big, big priced outsider, Justin Harding (250/1)
I was considering Finnau but his fairways in regulation stats are not good - can get away with that at some events but not the US Open!
Will play long so need to be straight. It's going to be cold on Sunday, so more Europeans I think will come into it. (I got 3 right in the Masters finishing top 10 e/w)
I've gone for on this basis (e/w 1/5th odds top 10 Sky Bet)
Danny Willet @ 150/1 Has come back into some form recently, but not strung it out for 4 rounds
Martin Kaymner @ 80/1 Recent resurgence
Ian Poulter @ 90/1 Has the accuracy off the tee and short game to contend - probably most consistent form of his life
Francesco Molinari @ 30/1 His 4th round in The Masters (where I had him) knocked his confidence, but expect him to be up for it.
Tommy Fleetwood @ 28/1 Has the game for it and contended at The Players. Expect good things this week with the conditions.
Too short odds for e/w in my opinion, but think they'll be up there - Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods.
Jordan Spieth has a chance too as he's coming back to form and knocking putts in again.
Surely Rory is in with a shout ?
To win, against some of the best by 7 shots Sunday, is some marker to lay down....
Anyway I have him to win at 12’s.
My last bet was BFG at 22’s, anytime scorer, what could possibly go wrong ?? 🙄
Koepka is already on form. He's just had a press conference where he says everyone should stop complaining about the US Open being too hard. "If you put it in the fairway you won't have to complain about the rough."
He's also rightly complained that he's not in Fox's US Open commercials. That is exactly the sort of thing that fires him up.
Edit: actually listening to the Shotgun Start (brilliant podcast 3 times a week) he was sent and was talking about a 2 year old advert. Hmm. Either way it helps the chip on his shoulder.
https://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/us-open-tips-golf/
Personally, gone large on:
Shane Lowry: 45-1
Matt Wallace 66-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1
+ smaller bets on Molinari, Matsuyama, Rose, Poulter, Fleetwood & Rahm for me.
All with Paddypower paying up to 10 places and, on the face of it pretty competitive in terms of offered odds when I looked around this morning.
Think Brooks will win again. Seems to be in the same mindset he was in before the USPGA.
That can work the other way leading to a shock winner.
What the stats do confirm is that the winner is very likely to be an American - 84 out of the 118 winners have been from the USA.
On your general point - the book pre-tournament in golf is a little bit skewed and gets much stronger (as in making more sense) during or immediately after the first round.
He will be very happy with that - started off badly in his last couple of Majors.
Long way to go ....
Rose finishing strongly.
Justin birdies the 18th to take the lead on his own after the 1st round at -6.
Fantastic effort from Rose who birdies the last 3 holes. Wonderful first round of golf all round at an amazing course. Woods indeed does finish under par at -1. He is not out of this, not by any stretch of the imagination.
Absolutely love the timing of this. West Coast America being 8 hours behind us makes it perfect TV for us night birds.
rahm 10 places 22/1
fowler 10 places 22/1
fleetwood 10 places 25/1
Wish i had done Rose now