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How many points do you usually need in the championship to be considered "safe"

Dave2lDave2l
in General Charlton
My guess is...you probably need 50+ points.

We have started this season brightly but there are plenty of examples that suggest the 1st game will not really have any indication as to where you will finish at the end of the season.

I can already think of a few strong Charlton  related examples that went completely the other way.

1998. 2018. 2008.

This is going to be a very stretched out tough old season. Every point will count.
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Comments

  • Covered EndCovered End
    50 is the target.
  • CAFCTrevCAFCTrev
    edited August 2019
    I think Peterborough went down in 12/13 with 54 points or something, a record high? That was an anomaly though. 
  • Covered_End_LadCovered_End_Lad
    Had a look at this they other day, 50 seems to guarantee it although some seasons recently as few as 42 would have kept you up.
  • Brendan_O_ConnellBrendan_O_Connell
    53
  • LenGloverLenGlover
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
  • iainmentiainment
    Scoham said:
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
    And we're on track for that.
  • LargeAddickLargeAddick
    a point more than the team in 22nd, maybe not even that if you have a better GD …..
  • stackitstevestackitsteve
    Similar to the magical 40 in the Premier League really in that a little over 1 point a game is enough.
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  • bobmunrobobmunro
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 


    I feel for you.




    (I'm also a liar!)

  • killerandflashkillerandflash
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
     All went wrong when Big Mick left to manage Ireland
  • killerandflashkillerandflash
    Looking at the 3rd bottom team in recent seasons

    2018/19 - 40
    2017/18 - 41
    2016/17 - 51 (Blackburn on GD)
    2015/16 - 40 (us...)
    2014/15 - 41
    2013/14 - 44 (Doncaster on GD)

    In most years 50 should see you safe, though it depends on how many "bad" teams there are. If there are a number of teams at a similar "adequate" level, you'll need 50 plus
  • Oggy RedOggy Red
    edited August 2019
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Ah, yes the "Morts in the snow" season ...... when we beat you 2-0 at The Den before Christmas when you were top ..... and you barely won another game until relegation claimed you.

    Maybe history will repeat itself? :smile:


  • Johnnysummers5Johnnysummers5
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 

    My favourite year, hope happyvalley is taking notes
  • Dave2lDave2l
    If I was to make a prediction.

    Bowyer is going to treat most games like cup finals. We will stay up with 55 points.

    Then undoubtedly , second season syndrome will hit us. Roland still wouldn't have sold. The budget gets decreased even further.

    Key members of our players and coaches leave ..

    Then back to where we post curbs belong.

    League f*cking one.
  • charltonkestoncharltonkeston
    Scoham said:
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
    Even if we came close to 138 points, Leeds would still be on tv more than Manchester City and we would be lucky to on twice before May.
  • Mendonca In AsdasMendonca In Asdas
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Agh, those were the days....
  • Covered EndCovered End
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    What a great day. I remember celebrating down the Doom & Gloom.
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  • blackpool72blackpool72
    Oggy Red said:
    MillwallFan said:
    LenGlover said:
    50 is the guide but Millwall went down with 52 or 53 one year.
    1996. We was top at Christmas and dropped in to the relegation zone for the first time in the last 15 minutes of the season. Unbelievable Geoff. 
    Ah, yes the "Morts in the snow" season ...... when we beat you 2-0 at The Den before Christmas when you were top ..... and you barely won another game until relegation claimed you.

    Maybe history will repeat itself? :smile:


    Kim Grants best ever game for Charlton. 
  • Addick AddictAddick Addict
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
  • soapboxsamsoapboxsam
    Addick Addict said:
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
    Agree with better to win one in 3 but that's not going to happen with our possible depleted strike force if the Hemed transfer fails because of time or a technical issue.

    Sunderland's draws cost them a top 2 finish, they weren't trying to stay in a division.

    I believe we will be the draw specialists this season, and as long as the best players don't get recalled by their parent club in January window then the draws and occasional wins should see us 14-18th in the table.
  • Addick AddictAddick Addict
    soapboxsam said:
    Addick Addict said:
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
    Agree with better to win one in 3 but that's not going to happen with our possible depleted strike force if the Hemed transfer fails because of time or a technical issue.

    Sunderland's draws cost them a top 2 finish, they weren't trying to stay in a division.

    I believe we will be the draw specialists this season, and as long as the best players don't get recalled by their parent club in January window then the draws and occasional wins should see us 14-18th in the table.
    Sunderland needed 92 points to go up automatically or 2 points per game. They just lost 5 matches all season and yet ended up 7 points shy of that target with 85 points - not the 50 we are talking about.

    We don't need 2 points a game to stay up. We need to do what we did on Saturday - nick one in three games and the odd draw will see us safe. If we win just 14 of our remaining 45 games and draw 5 we can, effectively, afford to lose 26 matches and still stay up. If we try not to lose half of our remaining games by drawing them we will go down.
  • killerandflashkillerandflash
    Thinking about it, this season I think we will need 50 points to survive as I don't see the really weak teams  that you sometimes get. 

    Last season had a desperately poor Ipswich, a financially insolvent Bolton and Rotherham who were the epitome of the well managed small club giving their all, but not being quite good enough. I expect the 3 promoted sides to be bottom half, maybe bottom 6, but all of us should be stronger than Rotherham
  • iainmentiainment
    iainment said:
    Scoham said:
    50 or so, but we’re aiming for 138 points. Bowyer wants to win every game.
    And we're on track for that.
    Still on track!!!
  • SoundAsa£SoundAsa£
    6
  • Addick AddictAddick Addict
    Addick Addict said:
    soapboxsam said:
    Addick Addict said:
    If we win one in every three games we will be fine. And that is the key. Draws create a false impression of being unbeaten and "success". Just ask Sunderland about that.
    Agree with better to win one in 3 but that's not going to happen with our possible depleted strike force if the Hemed transfer fails because of time or a technical issue.

    Sunderland's draws cost them a top 2 finish, they weren't trying to stay in a division.

    I believe we will be the draw specialists this season, and as long as the best players don't get recalled by their parent club in January window then the draws and occasional wins should see us 14-18th in the table.
    Sunderland needed 92 points to go up automatically or 2 points per game. They just lost 5 matches all season and yet ended up 7 points shy of that target with 85 points - not the 50 we are talking about.

    We don't need 2 points a game to stay up. We need to do what we did on Saturday - nick one in three games and the odd draw will see us safe. If we win just 14 of our remaining 45 games and draw 5 we can, effectively, afford to lose 26 matches and still stay up. If we try not to lose half of our remaining games by drawing them we will go down.

    13 wins from 44 matches will do now. And Sunderland's addiction continues with 2/2 draws this season.
  • Dannoo_86Dannoo_86
    6 not enough?
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