Half the point of xG is to not take into account who the chance falls to.
If Harry Kane and Glenn Murray both accrue chances worth a total of 20 xG over the course of a season and Harry Kane scores 26 goals while Murray scores 14 then you have evidence to back up why Harry Kane is one of the best strikers in the world because he is outperforming his xG number.
14 goals for Glenn Murray might look like a good season but if he's had the chances to score an expected 20 goals then maybe he's not as clinical as you first thought.
Maybe it's fault is in the name "expected goals" because it's not trying
to predict goals, it's more a rating system for quality of chance creation. 10 shots but
0.4 xG implies a load of long range pot shots while 5 shots and 2 xG
would suggest real guilt edge chances. It's just putting a number or a rating on something that used to be based only on gut feeling.
For what it's worth, in last season's Prem the most 'efficient' finishers (amongst those who scored at least 10 goals and measured purely in terms of actual goals versus expected goals [not as a percentage thereof]) were: 1. Sadio Mane (+5.2), 2. Ayoze Perez (+3.8), 3. Eden Hazard (+3.7), 4. Son Heung-Min (+3.6), 5. Wilfried Zaha (+3.5).
The least efficient on the same basis were: 1. Aleksander Mitrovic (-4.5), 2. Paul Pogba (-2.9), 3. Callum Wilson (-2.0).
The most efficient teams overall were Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs; the least efficient were Fulham, Cardiff and Huddersfield. Unsurprisingly perhaps the latter three got relegated....
The next best performers are Bristol City, Millwall and Leeds at just over 0.13 xG per shot.
Our early success is apparently due to us getting into good positions and resisting the urge to take too many shots from "unscoreable" positions. It hints at attacking togetherness and discipline that not many other teams in this division possess.
This is a fabulous example of how you should use xG.
The next best performers are Bristol City, Millwall and Leeds at just over 0.13 xG per shot.
Our early success is apparently due to us getting into good positions and resisting the urge to take too many shots from "unscoreable" positions. It hints at attacking togetherness and discipline that not many other teams in this division possess.
This is a fabulous example of how you should use xG.
"High scoring chances" includes penalties. Take those off the stats & I doubt we would look as good.
The next best performers are Bristol City, Millwall and Leeds at just over 0.13 xG per shot.
Our early success is apparently due to us getting into good positions and resisting the urge to take too many shots from "unscoreable" positions. It hints at attacking togetherness and discipline that not many other teams in this division possess.
This is a fabulous example of how you should use xG.
"High scoring chances" includes penalties. Take those off the stats & I doubt we would look as good.
The bloke who complied the graph on twitter was asked the same thing. So he came back after he took the penalties out for every team and Charlton were still way out ahead of everyone else.
The next best performers are Bristol City, Millwall and Leeds at just over 0.13 xG per shot.
Our early success is apparently due to us getting into good positions and resisting the urge to take too many shots from "unscoreable" positions. It hints at attacking togetherness and discipline that not many other teams in this division possess.
This is a fabulous example of how you should use xG.
"High scoring chances" includes penalties. Take those off the stats & I doubt we would look as good.
The bloke who complied the graph on twitter was asked the same thing. So he came back after he took the penalties out for every team and Charlton were still way out ahead of everyone else.
Thats really interesting, I wonder how much of this is by design and how much is just a factor of small sample size. I suspect we'll end up closer to the middle of the pack as the season goes on as two of our 11 goals have been penalties and another two were flukes which are possibly inflating this number somewhat and will have less of an effect as more games are played. Definitely something to keep an eye on though and see if we remain out in front. I'd love to see this graph for 2018-19 in League one and see how it compares.
I can only assume that xG is the reason that Forest Green are still, despite being top of the table, they are still being dismissed by some bookies to win League 2.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.
They are obviously very good at retaining the ball - just don't do much with it when they have it!
Having said that they had 53% possession today with 14 shots of which 3 were on target. Exeter had the same number of shots but their only shot on target was their goal.
I can only assume that xG is the reason that Forest Green are still, despite being top of the table, they are still being dismissed by some bookies to win League 2.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.
Having broken Cheltenham's 17 home match unbeaten run today and after a third of the season, FGR are still top - and have drifted to 16/1 (1/4 1st 3 still) with Bet 365!
I'm either going to be on bread and water come May or there won't be any exotic hols for Bob Munro next year!
Comments
For what it's worth, in last season's Prem the most 'efficient' finishers (amongst those who scored at least 10 goals and measured purely in terms of actual goals versus expected goals [not as a percentage thereof]) were: 1. Sadio Mane (+5.2), 2. Ayoze Perez (+3.8), 3. Eden Hazard (+3.7), 4. Son Heung-Min (+3.6), 5. Wilfried Zaha (+3.5).
The least efficient on the same basis were: 1. Aleksander Mitrovic (-4.5), 2. Paul Pogba (-2.9), 3. Callum Wilson (-2.0).
The most efficient teams overall were Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs; the least efficient were Fulham, Cardiff and Huddersfield. Unsurprisingly perhaps the latter three got relegated....
Not me, guv!
Having said that, you wouldn't be surprised to know that bookmakers do take into account XG.
Forest Green finished 5th last season and scored 68 goals in 46 games - above average for the League - but this season they have netted just 14 times in their 12 matches. Where the improvement has come is with their defence as they have conceded just 6 times this season (just once in their last 6) and have 8 clean sheets to their name.
The logic, presumably based on the information utilised, is that they will, by virtue of suspensions, injuries, loss of form etc etc start to leak goals but won't improve on their ability to score.
At 14/1 (and each way 1/4 1st 3) I'm happy to take a chance that the likes of Bet365 and xG will be proven wrong.
Having said that they had 53% possession today with 14 shots of which 3 were on target. Exeter had the same number of shots but their only shot on target was their goal.
I'm either going to be on bread and water come May or there won't be any exotic hols for Bob Munro next year!