I’m disappointed to see Pipe opt on Saturday for yet another novice
hurdle for Ramses de Teillee rather than the GNT (2nd last
year) and hope that doesn’t mean that he’ll not have a prep over fences. If that's so, it will be a case (IMHO) of a trainer with a profoundly misguided notion that a
campaign made up entirely, barring 1 mediocre chase appearance, of novice hurdles
(in which RDT's been comfortably favoured at the weights) is an ideal prep for the GN.
He promises much does RDT and ran much better last year, as a 7yo, than
he was given credit for (unlikely to have troubled the principals but still in touch at 2nd Canal Turn when reins
broke after a mistake). Not unusual for those who had a decent “sighter” in the
race as a 7yo to return to run really well (most recently, Big Fella Thanks in
2010, Saint Are and Cause of Causes, runners-up in 2015 and 2017 respectively) – but all had run impressively over fences during the season.
Without a decent chase prep RDT, carrying 10.05 if Tiger runs, still has
the stats to make the frame and, with an interest at 66/1 e/w, I’ll take a
decision on whether to keep him or cash out in due course, depending on the
relative appeal of others.
@PeanutsMolloy some great stuff on Yala Enki. Have been looking at your research and worth noting his only fall was at the first fence in some race at Sandown two years ago when pressing the leader - no idea what caused it, but from the sound of it you'd think it was a bit of bad luck. So discounting that we have one PU and 25 completions in 26 races.
So O'leary brothers were bluffing - what a pair of melts.....I guess barring accidents no weight rises
Cheers @oldbloke Here's the story for those who haven't seen it yet. https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/oleary-gives-green-light-for-tiger-roll-to-contest-grand-national/423017 Good news all round, of course, including weights-wise for a number in the race - massive in that regard for MAGIC OF LIGHT (14/1). A rise would have (and still could, if injury or poor form intervenes for the returning Champ) scupper her chances on the stats but with Tiger set to run, she'll carry 10.12 - just 1lb more than last year and "well-in" with all returning rivals, including TR. I've taken the gamble that TR runs and added her after the weights were announced at 16s - so the 4th member of my team. A short price but happy to have at least 1 of the Irish ticking my boxes, given their recent record. She was the only "black swan" (i.e. completely unexpected) for my model in the first 5 home last time but the retrospective analysis threw up the fact that, with Rainbow Quest on her dam-side, she benefits from a "gilt-edged" version of the Wild-Risk factor. Interestingly, Tiger Roll has it via his sire, Authorized, and Rainbow Quest was dam-sire to Auroras Encore (GN 2013 winner) and to Cause Of Causes (2nd in 2017). No others lining up this year have RQ present via sire or dam. As noted in the Kimberlite Candy write-up, she's also by Flemensfirth (as is stablemate Jett) - sire of The Last Samuri and King John's Castle. Trainer and jockey believe the 9 yo MoL has progressed this season - and she upped her career-best hurdle RPR by 8lbs when taking the Grade 2 Mares Hurdle at Ascot for the second year running. Assuming a safe spin round in her prep(s), according to my model, she's got the best stat-rating of the Irish-trained contingent, winning calibre on any ground though inferior to Elegant Escape on GS and to Kimberlite Candy on Soft. Though these are nuances of relative ratings and anything can happen over a GN to supercede them (or, of course, my model's prognostications may simply turn out to be a load of old hooey ), the model's predicting bridesmaid again for the gutsy mare, assuming her jumping withstands the test once more. With a slice of fortune, she could be the first mare to win a GN since 1951.
So O'leary brothers were bluffing - what a pair of melts.....I guess barring accidents no weight rises
I don't honestly think that it was ever in doubt. The lure of being the owners of a three time winner of the National trumping, in their eyes, the achievements of Red Rum, was always going to prove too strong (and the money of course). While wishing Tiger Roll no ill will, I really hope that he doesn't win. The O'Learys, especially Michael, would become even more unbearable, if that was humanly possible.
Ok I’m done now for the time being on Grand National betting. I’m not very proficient.
I I have various different bets on:
Tiger Roll at around 7/1 Anibale Fly 25/1 Le Brueil 25/1 Yala Enki half at 66/1 and half at 20/1 Elegant escape 28/1 Ballyoptic 33/1 Magic of light 14/1
I guess some may not race and some will come further in and if I don’t fancy them I can cash out at a profit.
Which ones here have already pulled out/likely to pull out and which likely to pull in?
In hindsight I’ve gone for too many horses this year, although if two of them come in top 5 I’ll be level I think. If tiger roll, Yala enli or a Abale fly win with one other in the top 5 I’ll be up.
What ever happened to @PolzeathNick ? Obviously Peanuts is the GN King but Polzeath’s analysis was always a very interesting read.
Cheers @Callumcafc - though proof of the pudding, as they say, and it's taken a while for the model to adjust to the effect of the post-2012 changes. I'm very much looking forward to @PolzeathNick 's posts too. I well remember he tipped and backed at huge prices Walk In The Mill for 2018 when he was untried over the GN course - if memory serves, I think he was on the reserve list and would have got in but for a late niggle. Perfect ground for him that year as well - I think I'd have been justifiably dethroned
In Novmber O'Leary said that the chances of Tiger Roll running were between "slim and none". I wonder what price he would have offered on that basis - surely 100/1 plus? Now he says it's "50/50" - and even money would now be too big a price on TR partaking in my opinion. O'Leary just won't be able to resist the possibility of being the owner of a three times National winner.
What I would really like, though, would be if the media just ignored him and should TR achieve that feat, that the horse is celebrated with no reference whatsoever to connections. Now that would really hurt!
From 100/1 to Evens to 1/100 for the participation of Tiger Roll. Hypothetically, had I been on at 100/1 and then gone in again at evens I would love now to be able to lay it at 1.01 to be there at 5.15pm on Saturday 4th April.
Ballyoptic – similarly needs to win or near-miss to have the stats to be in contention at Aintree but he’s off too high a mark currently, according to my model, and 2
Falls and an 80L defeat in 3 runs over the GN fences don’t bode well (doesn’t seem
to have the agility of foot to stay upright over the these obstacles).
Wins convincingly in the end, led most of the way around and stretched his advantage after the final fence...
Ballyoptic – similarly needs to win or near-miss to have the stats to be in contention at Aintree but he’s off too high a mark currently, according to my model, and 2
Falls and an 80L defeat in 3 runs over the GN fences don’t bode well (doesn’t seem
to have the agility of foot to stay upright over the these obstacles).
Wins convincingly in the end, led most of the way around and stretched his advantage after the final fence...
Very impressive win for Ballyoptic under 11.10 and a smart decision to head to Ascot. No doubting his stamina and he jumped well on the whole today. Indeed he's only Fallen twice over fences in 15 runs - the problem is they were both over the GN fences. Got round last time (Becher chase) but was struggling a mile from home and finished 81L adrift. It's true that the second of those Fs was 4 out in the last GN and he was still in touch but he was clearly off the bridle (will be off a 2lb higher mark on 4 April though, if Tiger does line up, will be carrying 4lbs less weight with 10.11). This is foot-in-mouth time for me no doubt but it seems to me, reviewing the 2 falls, in both cases he didn't so much get the fence badly wrong as fail to get his undercarriage out after going through the top of them. Some make much worse mistakes but have the agility to steady the ship. I definitely wouldn't deter anyone who fancied him from backing him - schooling over Aintree lookalikees could well do the trick and he benefits from being in the hands of the winning-most trainer over the GN fences of recent times. If I ignore the course-form stat and if he notches a new high RPR (167+) as a result of his win today, according to my model, he'd justify his current mark (for GN purposes) and have a Winning Profile. But, at the end of the day I have to go with my model and all the stats that it uses and the fact is that no horse has made the first 3 home in a GN for at least 32 years (as far back as my database goes) with 100% record of "incompletes/failures" from even 2, let alone 3 prior runs over the fences. Admittedly there's not a huge sample of runners with a prior record of 3/3 failures but it's a significant stat, unsurprisingly, as the GN course is the steeplechasing equivalent of "marmite".
Quick word on Haydock: Ground was officially "heavy" today and there's little doubt that it was. However, the GNT was run in a time just 18 secs slow of standard and the 3m novice chase just 7s slow. That's "Haydock heavy" for you. It's unique and some horses handle it and skip over it like it’s GS (especially if favoured with a feather-weight) and others look like they're wading through treacle. If you put a red line through every runner that flopped in the Haydock GNT on heavy prior to a GN run, you'd have missed Mon Mome winning the 2009 GN and Teaforthree coming home 3rd in the 2013 GN. Yala Enki came home 20L 3rd under 11.07 (the winner a 33/1 shot with just 10.00) and ran very nicely. A safe spin achieved and the fact that his GN price has lengthened to 33s creates an attractive opportunity to get on board. Strong Place Potential on GS, Winning Profile on Soft and would definitely add him to my e/w slip at 33s if he wasn't already there at 66. Elegant Escape - jumped poorly and clearly hated the experience - PUd, failing to complete for the first time in his career. Need to see if anything is amiss. Was having his first run after a wind op and a bleed is always a possibility. Have to confess I cashed out of my 28/1 position in-running (Cheers Bob) but will re-enter in due course (lengthened now to 33s, 50/1 from a couple of 4-place payers) if Tizzard (who had no explanation for the poor run) declares him fit and still an intended runner on 4 April. Not such a great antepost play after all. Apologies folks but keep faith. Still got a Winning stat-profile for the GN if all’s well physically. If he is given a clean bill of health, I’d say today confirms he’s best suited by genuine Good to Soft.
EDIT One For Arthur, like EE, having his first run after a wind op also ran and jumped poorly and PUd. He was found to have an irregular heartbeat after the race and will be monitored. Would assume retirement a distinct possibility for the old boy. Lord Du Mesnil ran another fine race over C&D, just being overhauled to finish close 2nd. Trainer's said the 7yo is likely to wait a year to take on the GN. Ramses De Teillee duly obliged in the 5-runner novice hurdle (more effort required here than at Donny and there was more focus in the final furlong, which was good to see), booking a date in the Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle at the Festival.
Tiger Roll, in his return from injury, takes on Magic Of Light and 8 others in the 21f Gr2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan tomorrow, which TR won impressively last year.
Nice run by Tiger Roll on his comeback in the 21f Gr2 Boyne hurdle on very testing ground - travelled well, just a tad short of match-fitness and came home a creditable 5th. Pleasing to all who fancy him for the hat-trick. Obviously the sample of prior GN runners in recent times with 2 GN wins to their name is precisely 0, so he could prove to an exception to all normal stats but, taking TR's CV as it currently stands and treating him as a returning winner, my model considers that he does not have the stat-profile to win it again carrying top-weight. We'll see. Magic Of Light disappointed expectations. She travelled nicely enough until the home straight but couldn't go with them when they quickened - beaten when eased and came home 8th (last). The market blew a raspberry and pushed her out to 20/1 for the GN. Win some, lose some when you take an early price, of course, but I've no intention of cashing out unless Harrington reports a problem. Don't forget, this time last year she ran moderately (on and off the bridle) and Unseated her jockey in the Bobbyjo Chase and, even though she disappointed today, as a GN prep (assuming she's OK) it was perfectly acceptable, especially given the trip and ground. As can be seen from her career-stats (all races) on differing ground prior to today's race, 21f on very testing are her least preferred race conditions.
Heavy & Sft/Hvy: 11 runs - 18% win/near-miss [all at 23f+] (18%) and 45% making the frame
Soft & Y/Sft: 12 runs - 50% win/n-m and 66% making frame
Y/GS and better: 7 runs - 71% win/n-m and 85% making frame
No wonder her trainer often sends her to GB for the better ground. However, don't worry about a soft ground GN. On Soft or Heavy going, under Rules her record (prior to today) is far superior at longer trips:
<23f: 13 runs - 23% win/n-m and 46% frame-making
23f+: 7 runs - 57% win/n-m and 86% frame making
The one thing she needs on 4 April, from a stats-perspective, is for one of Tiger Roll, Delta Work or Bristol De Mai to line up, so that she runs off (hopefully) 10.12 or not more than 11.00. Off that weight, assuming she's physically OK, she'll definitely still be on my betting slip (though sadly at the 16s I've already taken).
Career-high RPR167 accorded to Ballyoptic for his impressive win on Saturday. On the stats my model applies, that validates his handicap mark (OR157) for the GN and, if you ignore his FF0 course-form, he'd have a winning profile on any ground, best chance on Soft. It's entirely about his jumping the fences well enough and, if you're inclined to take a chance on that, he certainly has the pedigree for a GN:
by Old Vic - sire of Comply or Die and Don't Push It (and runners-up Black Apalachi and Sunnyhillboy)
has the Wild Risk X Factor (via High Top) on his damside - a line shared by One For Arthur (and runners-up Pleasant Company and Balthazar King)
Happily, One For Arthur reported to be well and enjoying himself - I'd be very surprised if he isn't retired however.
Hi Peanuts Have been looking at Any Second Now Winner of Kim Muir got a decent weight and the right connections. Does he figure on any of your modules? Hope you don't mind me asking.
Hi Peanuts Have been looking at Any Second Now Winner of Kim Muir got a decent weight and the right connections. Does he figure on any of your modules? Hope you don't mind me asking.
Hi Peanuts Have been looking at Any Second Now Winner of Kim Muir got a decent weight and the right connections. Does he figure on any of your modules? Hope you don't mind me asking.
No worries @Starinnaddick He's flashing away on my radar screen too. Winning the Kim Muir near the top of the weights has always been a good pointer and he won it well. Apart from the stamina test (26f trip finishing up the famous hill), there's always a big field and, with amateur jocks, more than a dash of chaos - all handy indicators. Most recently, Sunnyhillboy won the KM same season (post-GN weight allocations of course) as his agonisingly close 2nd in 2012 GN. Ballabriggs won 2010 KM and (off 10lbs higher handicap mark) 2011 GN. Any Second Now hasn't won since, off OR150 (+7lbs from the Kim Muir), but has run very creditably and consistently and, though he's got OR152 for Aintree, he'll only have 10.06 on his back if Tiger lines up - a definite stat positive, as you point out. He's an 8 year-old - they do well these days - and he's notched a decent hurdle rating, which is a definite plus for a modern-day GN. Also versatile as to going. Other than when badly hampered and unseating, he's only failed to complete once in 15 chases - falling early-ish in last year's Irish GN. That's his only attempt beyond 26f but he gives every indication that he'd relish an extended trip. Though he doesn't have the Wild Risk X Factor on his dam-side, his pedigree does have positive components for a big run in a GN:
by Oscar - sired Oscar Time (GN 2nd and 4th) and Teaforthree (3rd)
his grandam-sire is Be My Native (dam-sire to GN 2nd Black Apalachi and 4th Gilgamboa, as well as Native River and Kimberlite Candy as it happens)
his great grandam-sire is Menelek (sired 2 GN winners - Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy)
Without a win but he's had a decent 4-race campaign (3 over shorter than 3m), planned by the canny Ted Walsh (trained GN winner Papillon and 3rd Seabass). As things stand, unless he were to do something eye-catching in a competitive final prep, according to my model his stats are short of Winning Calibre but he's certainly got place potential. Expecting a bold show - just probably no cigar ............................... but I could be wrong!!!
Nice run by Tiger Roll on his comeback in the 21f Gr2 Boyne hurdle on very testing ground - travelled well, just a tad short of match-fitness and came home a creditable 5th. Pleasing to all who fancy him for the hat-trick. Obviously the sample of prior GN runners in recent times with 2 GN wins to their name is precisely 0, so he could prove to an exception to all normal stats but, taking TR's CV as it currently stands and treating him as a returning winner, my model considers that he does not have the stat-profile to win it again carrying top-weight. We'll see. Magic Of Light disappointed expectations. She travelled nicely enough until the home straight but couldn't go with them when they quickened - beaten when eased and came home 8th (last). The market blew a raspberry and pushed her out to 20/1 for the GN. Win some, lose some when you take an early price, of course, but I've no intention of cashing out unless Harrington reports a problem. Don't forget, this time last year she ran moderately (on and off the bridle) and Unseated her jockey in the Bobbyjo Chase and, even though she disappointed today, as a GN prep (assuming she's OK) it was perfectly acceptable, especially given the trip and ground. As can be seen from her career-stats (all races) on differing ground prior to today's race, 21f on very testing are her least preferred race conditions.
Heavy & Sft/Hvy: 11 runs - 18% win/near-miss [all at 23f+] (18%) and 45% making the frame
Soft & Y/Sft: 12 runs - 50% win/n-m and 66% making frame
Y/GS and better: 7 runs - 71% win/n-m and 85% making frame
No wonder her trainer often sends her to GB for the better ground. However, don't worry about a soft ground GN. On Soft or Heavy going, under Rules her record (prior to today) is far superior at longer trips:
<23f: 13 runs - 23% win/n-m and 46% frame-making
23f+: 7 runs - 57% win/n-m and 86% frame making
The one thing she needs on 4 April, from a stats-perspective, is for one of Tiger Roll, Delta Work or Bristol De Mai to line up, so that she runs off (hopefully) 10.12 or not more than 11.00. Off that weight, assuming she's physically OK, she'll definitely still be on my betting slip (though sadly at the 16s I've already taken).
Racing TV reports today Magic Of Light will not run again before the GN, so skipping Cheltenham.
Jessie Harrington’s assessment: “The Mares’ Hurdle looks too hot this year – it looks like all the good mares are going to turn up.
We’ll go straight to Aintree with her. She’s absolutely fine after her run in the Boyne Hurdle in Navan on Sunday – the ground was just too heavy for her.”
Good news to avoid a potentially hard race less than 4 weeks prior. Stats already good enough to figure at the business end if she’s carrying 11.00 or less (as looks likely).
Meanwhile, David Pipe says they’ll decide on Ramses De Teillee’s participation in the GN after the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle at the Festival.
Handicap adjustments yesterday:
Ballyoptic will be 6lbs well-in for the GN, having been raised to OR163.
Lord Du Mesnil also raised 6lbs (to 153) but trainer's indicated next year is more likely for the 7yo mudlark's first tilt at the GN
Yala Enki and Elegant Escape both dropped 1lb.
Entries for the handicaps at the Festival announced tomorrow.
BREAKING: Native River has been scratched from the Cheltenham Gold Cup - "He has picked up a suspensory tendon injury that means this season is over for him."
BREAKING: Native River has been scratched from the Cheltenham Gold Cup - "He has picked up a suspensory tendon injury that means this season is over for him."
That is a real shame. At 10 yo you have to wonder if he'll grace the track again. Helluva record.
EDIT - seems like they're confident he'll be back next season. Never can tell with tendons,.............from personal experience
Stumbled across the trailer for the new film Dream Horse (Damian Lewis et al) about Welsh GN winner Dream Alliance, to be released in May I think. You probably know the brilliant story - looks really well done. Soul-stirring stuff.
Morning folks, Another heads up before another busy Saturday with GN entries running. The Bobbyjo Chase (Fairyhouse 4.02pm tomorrow) has been a popular prep for Irish runners, a number of whom have gone on to run well in the GN in recent years (Hedgehunter won both in 2005, Black Apalachi was 2nd in both in 2010, Oscar Time 3rd and GN 2nd in 2011 and Rathvinden won and GN 3rd last year). 8 of the intended 9 runners have GN entries, including GN 2nd fav Burrows Saint and 2018 GN 2nd Pleasant Company. Despite winning last April's Irish GN and his popularity in the market, 7yo Burrows Saint (even with a win tomorrow) comes up short on the stats according to my model, while Pleasant Company (now a 12 yo) has to win or near-miss to give himself any chance of figuring in the GN. He will be suited by the testing going but would need similar at Aintree. Of the others, Alpha Des Obeaux just needs a safe spin to confirm GN minor place potential, Sub Lieutenant needs a win or near-miss to do so. This side of the puddle, it's Eider Chase day at Newcastle - the prep for Comply Or Die prior to his 2008 GN win but, sadly, not featuring any runners with high enough marks to earn a tilt at the GN (at least this season). Meanwhile, Kempton stages the Grade 3 Betway Hdcp Chase over 3m at 3.35pm (the "Racing Post Chase", as it was once known). This used to be a common prep for GN runners but you have to go back to 1996 and Rough Quest's double in this and the GN (amazingly he also came close 2nd behind Imperial Call in the Gold Cup in between - just 16 days before Aintree, though it did confirm he was "thrown in" at his GN weight) for the last correlation with GN success. 5 of the intended runners tomorrow have GN entries and both Talkischeap and Crievehill could stregthen their GN stat-profiles to minor place potential if scoring. However, with Good to Soft to suit, it's KILDISART (66/1 for the GN with Bet365, 11/1 tomorrow) that could propel his to Winning Calibre with a big run and, as on previous occasions, given the GN price (which would obviously disappear if he obliges tomorrow), I've had preemptive ante-post wager for Aintree. Will take the hit on a cash out if he doesn't tick the box tomorrow. More anon.
EDIT Burrows Saint not among the 6 declared for tomorrow’s Bobbyjo - “We just decided to bypass it, but he’s in good order... The National is the target and he might go straight to Aintree without another run”, said Mullins' assistant, David Casey.
Despite looking discomforted by the fierce pace from the off, it ended up a decent prep for the GN for Kildisart, who stayed on strongly to finish 6L adrift (5th) in the Betway Hdcp this afternoon. But not quite enough to elevate his stat-profile to join my model’s A-Team and, as I’m focusing my firepower, I’ve cut my loss and cashed out. However, if you fancy a lively outsider at a tasty price, you could do a lot worse than take advantage of Bet365 pushing Kildisart out from 66 to 100/1 for the GN (no other change in the rest of the market [all 40-50/1] and Betfair punters trading him post-race at 50. Maybe Bob's pissed at me being on KC at 50 and YE and RDT at 66 and wanted to bollox my cash-out price but hey-ho - win some, lose some Nowt else of interest for the GN from the race, won impressively by Mister Malarkey, from fav Black Corton. Meanwhile at Fairyhouse, Acapella Bourgeous was the 15L winner of the Bobbyjo Chase, making all on testing ground. Alpha Des Obeaux just missed out in the battle for 2nd. Both carried 11.00 today but Acapella (now cut to 33/1 for the GN) will get 6lbs from Alpha Des Obeaux (out to 40/1) for the GN, though ADO has creditable course form. Neither will figure in my team however.
Very nice win for Any Second Now this afternoon in the Gr3 2mile chase at Naas, that Ted W used as a GN prep for Papillon and Seabass. Unsurprisingly, he's been cut to 12-14s now for Aintree and he'll head straight there. It's only his 2nd win in 16 chases but, interestingly, they've come at 16 and at 26 furlongs, on heavy and GS, confirming this fella's versatility. Improved his GN stat-profile which, according to my model is now confirmed place potential but still short of winning calibre, i.e. big run, no cigar ..................foot in mouth time no doubt 1st forfeit stage on Tuesday.
Very nice win for Any Second Now this afternoon in the Gr3 2mile chase at Naas, that Ted W used as a GN prep for Papillon and Seabass. Unsurprisingly, he's been cut to 12-14s now for Aintree and he'll head straight there. It's only his 2nd win in 16 chases but, interestingly, they've come at 16 and at 26 furlongs, on heavy and GS, confirming this fella's versatility. Improved his GN stat-profile which, according to my model is now confirmed place potential but still short of winning calibre, i.e. big run, no cigar ..................foot in mouth time no doubt 1st forfeit stage on Tuesday.
What ever happened to @PolzeathNick ? Obviously Peanuts is the GN King but Polzeath’s analysis was always a very interesting read.
Cheers @Callumcafc - though proof of the pudding, as they say, and it's taken a while for the model to adjust to the effect of the post-2012 changes. I'm very much looking forward to @PolzeathNick 's posts too. I well remember he tipped and backed at huge prices Walk In The Mill for 2018 when he was untried over the GN course - if memory serves, I think he was on the reserve list and would have got in but for a late niggle. Perfect ground for him that year as well - I think I'd have been justifiably dethroned
Apologies, been away for a bit.
Not gone through them all properly yet but have had a few speculative pokes.
First of them is ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS. Bet 50s NRNB before won the Bobby Jo, right age, experience, stays, placed in Irish National, well handicapped. Still 33s out there seems a mad price so may go in again.
Other one is JETT. Was 125/1, but 80/1 still knocking about. Trainer had first runner with Magic Of Light 2nd last year. On face of it would be a doubtful stamina-wise, but price compensates for that. Runs this season been behind Douvan then running well in 3m Gr1 chases in Ireland. Pretty sure Presenting Percy would be a short price if running in this, but this lad has same formline but is a mad price. Trainer was fairly bullish in comments too.
Will have a proper look after Cheltenham.....if it goes ahead!
Comments
Just as a post-script:
I’m disappointed to see Pipe opt on Saturday for yet another novice hurdle for Ramses de Teillee rather than the GNT (2nd last year) and hope that doesn’t mean that he’ll not have a prep over fences. If that's so, it will be a case (IMHO) of a trainer with a profoundly misguided notion that a campaign made up entirely, barring 1 mediocre chase appearance, of novice hurdles (in which RDT's been comfortably favoured at the weights) is an ideal prep for the GN.
He promises much does RDT and ran much better last year, as a 7yo, than he was given credit for (unlikely to have troubled the principals but still in touch at 2nd Canal Turn when reins broke after a mistake). Not unusual for those who had a decent “sighter” in the race as a 7yo to return to run really well (most recently, Big Fella Thanks in 2010, Saint Are and Cause of Causes, runners-up in 2015 and 2017 respectively) – but all had run impressively over fences during the season.
Without a decent chase prep RDT, carrying 10.05 if Tiger runs, still has the stats to make the frame and, with an interest at 66/1 e/w, I’ll take a decision on whether to keep him or cash out in due course, depending on the relative appeal of others.
Bloody trainers
And YE gets a tip for Saturday here.
Here's the story for those who haven't seen it yet.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/oleary-gives-green-light-for-tiger-roll-to-contest-grand-national/423017
Good news all round, of course, including weights-wise for a number in the race - massive in that regard for MAGIC OF LIGHT (14/1).
A rise would have (and still could, if injury or poor form intervenes for the returning Champ) scupper her chances on the stats but with Tiger set to run, she'll carry 10.12 - just 1lb more than last year and "well-in" with all returning rivals, including TR. I've taken the gamble that TR runs and added her after the weights were announced at 16s - so the 4th member of my team. A short price but happy to have at least 1 of the Irish ticking my boxes, given their recent record.
She was the only "black swan" (i.e. completely unexpected) for my model in the first 5 home last time but the retrospective analysis threw up the fact that, with Rainbow Quest on her dam-side, she benefits from a "gilt-edged" version of the Wild-Risk factor.
Interestingly, Tiger Roll has it via his sire, Authorized, and Rainbow Quest was dam-sire to Auroras Encore (GN 2013 winner) and to Cause Of Causes (2nd in 2017). No others lining up this year have RQ present via sire or dam.
As noted in the Kimberlite Candy write-up, she's also by Flemensfirth (as is stablemate Jett) - sire of The Last Samuri and King John's Castle.
Trainer and jockey believe the 9 yo MoL has progressed this season - and she upped her career-best hurdle RPR by 8lbs when taking the Grade 2 Mares Hurdle at Ascot for the second year running.
Assuming a safe spin round in her prep(s), according to my model, she's got the best stat-rating of the Irish-trained contingent, winning calibre on any ground though inferior to Elegant Escape on GS and to Kimberlite Candy on Soft. Though these are nuances of relative ratings and anything can happen over a GN to supercede them (or, of course, my model's prognostications may simply turn out to be a load of old hooey
With a slice of fortune, she could be the first mare to win a GN since 1951.
While wishing Tiger Roll no ill will, I really hope that he doesn't win. The O'Learys, especially Michael, would become even more unbearable, if that was humanly possible.
Tiger Roll at around 7/1
Anibale Fly 25/1
Le Brueil 25/1
Yala Enki half at 66/1 and half at 20/1
Elegant escape 28/1
Ballyoptic 33/1
Magic of light 14/1
I guess some may not race and some will come further in and if I don’t fancy them I can cash out at a profit.
I'm very much looking forward to @PolzeathNick 's posts too. I well remember he tipped and backed at huge prices Walk In The Mill for 2018 when he was untried over the GN course - if memory serves, I think he was on the reserve list and would have got in but for a late niggle. Perfect ground for him that year as well - I think I'd have been justifiably dethroned
That is how much I trust the O'Learys!!!!!
Wins convincingly in the end, led most of the way around and stretched his advantage after the final fence...
Indeed he's only Fallen twice over fences in 15 runs - the problem is they were both over the GN fences. Got round last time (Becher chase) but was struggling a mile from home and finished 81L adrift.
It's true that the second of those Fs was 4 out in the last GN and he was still in touch but he was clearly off the bridle (will be off a 2lb higher mark on 4 April though, if Tiger does line up, will be carrying 4lbs less weight with 10.11).
This is foot-in-mouth time for me no doubt but it seems to me, reviewing the 2 falls, in both cases he didn't so much get the fence badly wrong as fail to get his undercarriage out after going through the top of them. Some make much worse mistakes but have the agility to steady the ship.
I definitely wouldn't deter anyone who fancied him from backing him - schooling over Aintree lookalikees could well do the trick and he benefits from being in the hands of the winning-most trainer over the GN fences of recent times. If I ignore the course-form stat and if he notches a new high RPR (167+) as a result of his win today, according to my model, he'd justify his current mark (for GN purposes) and have a Winning Profile.
But, at the end of the day I have to go with my model and all the stats that it uses and the fact is that no horse has made the first 3 home in a GN for at least 32 years (as far back as my database goes) with 100% record of "incompletes/failures" from even 2, let alone 3 prior runs over the fences. Admittedly there's not a huge sample of runners with a prior record of 3/3 failures but it's a significant stat, unsurprisingly, as the GN course is the steeplechasing equivalent of "marmite".
Ground was officially "heavy" today and there's little doubt that it was.
However, the GNT was run in a time just 18 secs slow of standard and the 3m novice chase just 7s slow. That's "Haydock heavy" for you. It's unique and some horses handle it and skip over it like it’s GS (especially if favoured with a feather-weight) and others look like they're wading through treacle.
If you put a red line through every runner that flopped in the Haydock GNT on heavy prior to a GN run, you'd have missed Mon Mome winning the 2009 GN and Teaforthree coming home 3rd in the 2013 GN.
Yala Enki came home 20L 3rd under 11.07 (the winner a 33/1 shot with just 10.00) and ran very nicely. A safe spin achieved and the fact that his GN price has lengthened to 33s creates an attractive opportunity to get on board. Strong Place Potential on GS, Winning Profile on Soft and would definitely add him to my e/w slip at 33s if he wasn't already there at 66.
Elegant Escape - jumped poorly and clearly hated the experience - PUd, failing to complete for the first time in his career. Need to see if anything is amiss. Was having his first run after a wind op and a bleed is always a possibility.
Have to confess I cashed out of my 28/1 position in-running (Cheers Bob) but will re-enter in due course (lengthened now to 33s, 50/1 from a couple of 4-place payers) if Tizzard (who had no explanation for the poor run) declares him fit and still an intended runner on 4 April.
Not such a great antepost play after all. Apologies folks but keep faith. Still got a Winning stat-profile for the GN if all’s well physically.
If he is given a clean bill of health, I’d say today confirms he’s best suited by genuine Good to Soft.
EDIT One For Arthur, like EE, having his first run after a wind op also ran and jumped poorly and PUd. He was found to have an irregular heartbeat after the race and will be monitored. Would assume retirement a distinct possibility for the old boy.
Lord Du Mesnil ran another fine race over C&D, just being overhauled to finish close 2nd. Trainer's said the 7yo is likely to wait a year to take on the GN.
Ramses De Teillee duly obliged in the 5-runner novice hurdle (more effort required here than at Donny and there was more focus in the final furlong, which was good to see), booking a date in the Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle at the Festival.
Tiger Roll, in his return from injury, takes on Magic Of Light and 8 others in the 21f Gr2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan tomorrow, which TR won impressively last year.
Obviously the sample of prior GN runners in recent times with 2 GN wins to their name is precisely 0, so he could prove to an exception to all normal stats but, taking TR's CV as it currently stands and treating him as a returning winner, my model considers that he does not have the stat-profile to win it again carrying top-weight.
We'll see.
Magic Of Light disappointed expectations. She travelled nicely enough until the home straight but couldn't go with them when they quickened - beaten when eased and came home 8th (last). The market blew a raspberry and pushed her out to 20/1 for the GN. Win some, lose some when you take an early price, of course, but I've no intention of cashing out unless Harrington reports a problem.
Don't forget, this time last year she ran moderately (on and off the bridle) and Unseated her jockey in the Bobbyjo Chase and, even though she disappointed today, as a GN prep (assuming she's OK) it was perfectly acceptable, especially given the trip and ground. As can be seen from her career-stats (all races) on differing ground prior to today's race, 21f on very testing are her least preferred race conditions.
- Heavy & Sft/Hvy: 11 runs - 18% win/near-miss [all at 23f+] (18%) and 45% making the frame
- Soft & Y/Sft: 12 runs - 50% win/n-m and 66% making frame
- Y/GS and better: 7 runs - 71% win/n-m and 85% making frame
No wonder her trainer often sends her to GB for the better ground. However, don't worry about a soft ground GN. On Soft or Heavy going, under Rules her record (prior to today) is far superior at longer trips:- <23f: 13 runs - 23% win/n-m and 46% frame-making
- 23f+: 7 runs - 57% win/n-m and 86% frame making
The one thing she needs on 4 April, from a stats-perspective, is for one of Tiger Roll, Delta Work or Bristol De Mai to line up, so that she runs off (hopefully) 10.12 or not more than 11.00. Off that weight, assuming she's physically OK, she'll definitely still be on my betting slip (though sadly at the 16s I've already taken).It's entirely about his jumping the fences well enough and, if you're inclined to take a chance on that, he certainly has the pedigree for a GN:
- by Old Vic - sire of Comply or Die and Don't Push It (and runners-up Black Apalachi and Sunnyhillboy)
- has the Wild Risk X Factor (via High Top) on his damside - a line shared by One For Arthur (and runners-up Pleasant Company and Balthazar King)
Happily, One For Arthur reported to be well and enjoying himselfHave been looking at Any Second Now
Winner of Kim Muir got a decent weight and the right connections.
Does he figure on any of your modules?
Hope you don't mind me asking.
He's flashing away on my radar screen too.
Winning the Kim Muir near the top of the weights has always been a good pointer and he won it well. Apart from the stamina test (26f trip finishing up the famous hill), there's always a big field and, with amateur jocks, more than a dash of chaos - all handy indicators.
Most recently, Sunnyhillboy won the KM same season (post-GN weight allocations of course) as his agonisingly close 2nd in 2012 GN. Ballabriggs won 2010 KM and (off 10lbs higher handicap mark) 2011 GN.
Any Second Now hasn't won since, off OR150 (+7lbs from the Kim Muir), but has run very creditably and consistently and, though he's got OR152 for Aintree, he'll only have 10.06 on his back if Tiger lines up - a definite stat positive, as you point out.
He's an 8 year-old - they do well these days - and he's notched a decent hurdle rating, which is a definite plus for a modern-day GN. Also versatile as to going.
Other than when badly hampered and unseating, he's only failed to complete once in 15 chases - falling early-ish in last year's Irish GN. That's his only attempt beyond 26f but he gives every indication that he'd relish an extended trip.
Though he doesn't have the Wild Risk X Factor on his dam-side, his pedigree does have positive components for a big run in a GN:
- by Oscar - sired Oscar Time (GN 2nd and 4th) and Teaforthree (3rd)
- his grandam-sire is Be My Native (dam-sire to GN 2nd Black Apalachi and 4th Gilgamboa, as well as Native River and Kimberlite Candy as it happens)
- his great grandam-sire is Menelek (sired 2 GN winners - Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy)
Without a win but he's had a decent 4-race campaign (3 over shorter than 3m), planned by the canny Ted Walsh (trained GN winner Papillon and 3rd Seabass).As things stand, unless he were to do something eye-catching in a competitive final prep, according to my model his stats are short of Winning Calibre but he's certainly got place potential. Expecting a bold show - just probably no cigar ............................... but I could be wrong!!!
Racing TV reports today Magic Of Light will not run again before the GN, so skipping Cheltenham.
Jessie Harrington’s assessment: “The Mares’ Hurdle looks too hot this year – it looks like all the good mares are going to turn up.
We’ll go straight to Aintree with her. She’s absolutely fine after her run in the Boyne Hurdle in Navan on Sunday – the ground was just too heavy for her.”
Good news to avoid a potentially hard race less than 4 weeks prior. Stats already good enough to figure at the business end if she’s carrying 11.00 or less (as looks likely).
Meanwhile, David Pipe says they’ll decide on Ramses De Teillee’s participation in the GN after the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle at the Festival.
Handicap adjustments yesterday:
- Ballyoptic will be 6lbs well-in for the GN, having been raised to OR163.
- Lord Du Mesnil also raised 6lbs (to 153) but trainer's indicated next year is more likely for the 7yo mudlark's first tilt at the GN
- Yala Enki and Elegant Escape both dropped 1lb.
Entries for the handicaps at the Festival announced tomorrow.Argh, can't seem to embed.
BREAKING: Native River has been scratched from the Cheltenham Gold Cup - "He has picked up a suspensory tendon injury that means this season is over for him."
EDIT - seems like they're confident he'll be back next season. Never can tell with tendons,.............from personal experience
Stumbled across the trailer for the new film Dream Horse (Damian Lewis et al) about Welsh GN winner Dream Alliance, to be released in May I think.
You probably know the brilliant story - looks really well done. Soul-stirring stuff.
Another heads up before another busy Saturday with GN entries running.
The Bobbyjo Chase (Fairyhouse 4.02pm tomorrow) has been a popular prep for Irish runners, a number of whom have gone on to run well in the GN in recent years (Hedgehunter won both in 2005, Black Apalachi was 2nd in both in 2010, Oscar Time 3rd and GN 2nd in 2011 and Rathvinden won and GN 3rd last year).
8 of the intended 9 runners have GN entries, including GN 2nd fav Burrows Saint and 2018 GN 2nd Pleasant Company. Despite winning last April's Irish GN and his popularity in the market, 7yo Burrows Saint (even with a win tomorrow) comes up short on the stats according to my model, while Pleasant Company (now a 12 yo) has to win or near-miss to give himself any chance of figuring in the GN. He will be suited by the testing going but would need similar at Aintree. Of the others, Alpha Des Obeaux just needs a safe spin to confirm GN minor place potential, Sub Lieutenant needs a win or near-miss to do so.
This side of the puddle, it's Eider Chase day at Newcastle - the prep for Comply Or Die prior to his 2008 GN win but, sadly, not featuring any runners with high enough marks to earn a tilt at the GN (at least this season).
Meanwhile, Kempton stages the Grade 3 Betway Hdcp Chase over 3m at 3.35pm (the "Racing Post Chase", as it was once known). This used to be a common prep for GN runners but you have to go back to 1996 and Rough Quest's double in this and the GN (amazingly he also came close 2nd behind Imperial Call in the Gold Cup in between - just 16 days before Aintree, though it did confirm he was "thrown in" at his GN weight) for the last correlation with GN success.
5 of the intended runners tomorrow have GN entries and both Talkischeap and Crievehill could stregthen their GN stat-profiles to minor place potential if scoring.
However, with Good to Soft to suit, it's KILDISART (66/1 for the GN with Bet365, 11/1 tomorrow) that could propel his to Winning Calibre with a big run and, as on previous occasions, given the GN price (which would obviously disappear if he obliges tomorrow), I've had preemptive ante-post wager for Aintree. Will take the hit on a cash out if he doesn't tick the box tomorrow.
More anon.
EDIT Burrows Saint not among the 6 declared for tomorrow’s Bobbyjo - “We just decided to bypass it, but he’s in good order... The National is the target and he might go straight to Aintree without another run”, said Mullins' assistant, David Casey.
However, if you fancy a lively outsider at a tasty price, you could do a lot worse than take advantage of Bet365 pushing Kildisart out from 66 to 100/1 for the GN (no other change in the rest of the market [all 40-50/1] and Betfair punters trading him post-race at 50. Maybe Bob's pissed at me being on KC at 50 and YE and RDT at 66 and wanted to bollox my cash-out price but hey-ho - win some, lose some
Nowt else of interest for the GN from the race, won impressively by Mister Malarkey, from fav Black Corton.
Meanwhile at Fairyhouse, Acapella Bourgeous was the 15L winner of the Bobbyjo Chase, making all on testing ground. Alpha Des Obeaux just missed out in the battle for 2nd. Both carried 11.00 today but Acapella (now cut to 33/1 for the GN) will get 6lbs from Alpha Des Obeaux (out to 40/1) for the GN, though ADO has creditable course form.
Neither will figure in my team however.
It's only his 2nd win in 16 chases but, interestingly, they've come at 16 and at 26 furlongs, on heavy and GS, confirming this fella's versatility. Improved his GN stat-profile which, according to my model is now confirmed place potential but still short of winning calibre, i.e. big run, no cigar ..................foot in mouth time no doubt
1st forfeit stage on Tuesday.
Thank goodness I took the 25-1
Quick update.
A couple of handicap adjustments by the Irish handicapper to note after the weekend's action.
89 left in after yesterday's 1st forfeit stage:
Scratched were: Acting Lass (IRE), As de Mee (FR), Cadmium (FR), Champagne Classic (IRE), Chris’s Dream (IRE), Delta Work (FR), Heron Heights (IRE), Missed Approach (IRE), Mister Whitaker (IRE), Native River (IRE), Noble Endeavor (IRE), Princeton Royale (IRE), Sizing John, Steely Addition (IRE), Voix du Reve (FR), Yorkhill (IRE)That leaves:
- Tiger Roll - 11-10 - Gordon Elliott
- Bristol De Mai - 11-08 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Anibale Fly - 11-02 - Tony Martin
- Aso - 11-02 - Venetia Williams
- Elegant Escape - 11-02 - Colin Tizzard
- Top Ville Ben - 11-02 - Philip Kirby
- Beware The Bear - 11-00 - Nicky Henderson
- Alpha Des Obeaux - 10-13 - Gordon Elliott
- Jett - 10-13 - Jessica Harrington
- Peregrine Run - 10-13 - Peter Fahey
- Total Recall - 10-13 - Willie Mullins
- Magic Of Light - 10-12 - Jessica Harrington
- The Storyteller - 10-12 - Gordon Elliott
- Ballyoptic - 10-11 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Talkischeap - 10-11 - Alan King
- Yala Enki - 10-11 - Paul Nicholls
- Burrows Saint - 10-10 - Willie Mullins
- Definitly Red - 10-10 - Brian Ellison
- OK Corral - 10-09 - Nicky Henderson
- Sub Lieutenant - 10-09 - Henry de Bromhead
- Tout Est Permis - 10-09 - Noel Meade
- Crievehill - 10-08 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Jury Duty - 10-08 - Gordon Elliott
- Lake View Lad - 10-08 - Nick Alexander
- Vintage Clouds - 10-08 - Sue Smith
- Pleasant Company - 10-07 - Willie Mullins
- Acapella Bourgeois - 10-06 - Willie Mullins
- Any Second Now - 10-06 - Ted Walsh
- Potters Corner - 10-06 - Christian Williams
- Shattered Love - 10-06 - Gordon Elliott
- Death Duty - 10-05 - Gordon Elliott
- Dounikos - 10-05 - Gordon Elliott
- Kildisart - 10-05 - Ben Pauling
- Ramses de Teillee - 10-05 - David Pipe
- Double Shuffle - 10-04 - Tom George
- Kimberlite Candy - 10-04 - Tom Lacey
- Saint Xavier - 10-04 - Paul Nicholls
- Valtor - 10-04 - Nicky Henderson
- Walk In The Mill - 10-04 - Robert Walford
- Warriors Tale - 10-04 - Paul Nicholls
- Chef des Obeaux- 10-03 - Willie Mullins
- Class Conti - 10-03 - Willie Mullins
- Traffic Fluide - 10-03 - Gary Moore
- One For Arthur - 10-02 - Lucinda Russell
- Romain de Senam - 10-02 - Paul Nicholls
- Snugsborough Benny - 10-02 - Liam Cusack
- Dallas des Pictons - 10-01 - Gordon Elliott
- Give Me A Copper - 10-01 - Paul Nicholls
- Lord du Mesnil 10-01 - Richard Hobson
- Now Mcginty - 10-01 - Stuart Edmunds
- Poker Party - 10-01 - Henry de Bromhead
- Takingrisks - 10-01 - Nicky Richards
- Borice - 10-00 - Gordon Elliott
- Hogan's Height - 10-00 - Jamie Snowden
- Regal Encore - 10-00 - Anthony Honeyball
- Activial - 9-13 - Tom George
- Atlanta Ablaze - 9-13 - Henry Daly
- Cabaret Quieen - 9-13 - Willie Mullins
- Dalko Moriviere 9-13 - Nicky Henderson
- Dragon d'Estruval 9-13 - Nicky Henderson
- Le Breuil - 9-13 - Ben Pauling
- Outlander - 9-13 - Richard Spencer
- A Toil Phil - 9-12 - Gary Moore
- Cogry - 9-12 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Dingo Dollar - 9-12 - Alan King
- Flying Angel - 9-12 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- The Hollow Ginge - 9-12 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- The Young Master - 9-12 - Neil Mulholland
- Mall Dini - 9-11 - Patrick Kelly
- Monbeg Notorious - 9-11 - Gordon Elliott
- Fitzhenry 9-10 - Paul Nolan
- Joe Farrell - 9-10 - Rebecca Curtis
- Ravenhill - 9-10 - Gordon Elliott
- Roaring Bull - 9-10 - Gordon Elliott
- Townshend - 9-10 - Nigel Twiston-Davies
- Vieux Lion Rouge - 9-10 - David Pipe
- Ami Desbois - 9-09 - Graeme McPherson
- Moonshine Boy - 9-08 - Jessica Harrington
- Out Sam - 9-08 - Gordon Elliott
- Fingerontheswitch - 9-07 - Neil Muholland
- Singlefarmpayment - 9-07 - Tom George
- Kilfilum Cross - 9-06 - Henry Oliver
- Soupy Soups - 9-06 - Neil Mulholland
- General Principle 9-05 - Gordon Elliott
- Spider Web - 9-05 - Tom Mullins
- Scoir Mear - 8-12 - Tom Mullins
- Rathlin Rose - 8-10 - David Pipe
- Disco d'Authie - 8-07 - David Pipe
- Prince Of Scars - 8-07 - Gordon Elliott
More anonNot gone through them all properly yet but have had a few speculative pokes.
First of them is ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS. Bet 50s NRNB before won the Bobby Jo, right age, experience, stays, placed in Irish National, well handicapped. Still 33s out there seems a mad price so may go in again.
Other one is JETT. Was 125/1, but 80/1 still knocking about. Trainer had first runner with Magic Of Light 2nd last year. On face of it would be a doubtful stamina-wise, but price compensates for that. Runs this season been behind Douvan then running well in 3m Gr1 chases in Ireland. Pretty sure Presenting Percy would be a short price if running in this, but this lad has same formline but is a mad price. Trainer was fairly bullish in comments too.
Will have a proper look after Cheltenham.....if it goes ahead!