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PolzeathNick said:@bobmunro I'd argue with Betfair there is very much a right price these days, certainly over time anyway!
Regarding the win/place bet scenario. Look at something like the Eclipse antepost market. I can't imagine I'd make it onto too many Bet365 Christmas card lists by availing myself of the 25/1 ew 1/5 first 3 Deirdre. I can assure you I'm very much interested in the win part of the bet, indeed it is the balance between what you give up on the win part that offsets the value in the place part.
In the Eclipse, with a couple of NRs possible I can bet into a potential c.230% place market. If 8 line up on the day the place market will still likely be overbroke. If the markets were actually split up, you could bet to the overround in each without having to worry about rats such as myself picking it off! Just link your markets to Betfair markets and put your feet up!6 -
Really interesting debate this. I'm enjoying reading the various inputs from different perspectives.
Carry on chaps2 -
Addick Addict said:PolzeathNick said:@bobmunro I'd argue with Betfair there is very much a right price these days, certainly over time anyway!
Regarding the win/place bet scenario. Look at something like the Eclipse antepost market. I can't imagine I'd make it onto too many Bet365 Christmas card lists by availing myself of the 25/1 ew 1/5 first 3 Deirdre. I can assure you I'm very much interested in the win part of the bet, indeed it is the balance between what you give up on the win part that offsets the value in the place part.
In the Eclipse, with a couple of NRs possible I can bet into a potential c.230% place market. If 8 line up on the day the place market will still likely be overbroke. If the markets were actually split up, you could bet to the overround in each without having to worry about rats such as myself picking it off! Just link your markets to Betfair markets and put your feet up!There is no point in a traditional fixed odds bookmaker sticking their neck out, thereby creating arbs, as that would be ‘opinion based odds’ rather than market driven - too much opinion is dangerous as the bookmaker then in reality becomes a punter.
Opinion based trading went out years ago - the internet changed everything.
You are right though, AA, pricing events that do not have strong exchange presence is much trickier - especially if you are first up!0 -
Gone are the good old days of being on course hunting around for the best price when it was proper bookmaking,that is the real disappointing aspect for me.0
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killer kish said:Gone are the good old days of being on course hunting around for the best price when it was proper bookmaking,that is the real disappointing aspect for me.1
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A House of Lords committee has recommended banning bookmakers from sponsoring Premier League clubs shirts ..https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/532613640
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Lincsaddick said:A House of Lords committee has recommended banning bookmakers from sponsoring Premier League clubs shirts ..https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/532613640
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I had about 10 accounts with various bookies and only 1 remaining completely unrestricted, been betting the last 3-4 years and I’m up slightly overall.
Bookies only let you keep your accounts if you take the worst price and lose more than you win. It’s frustrating and highly immoral from them really, but at least you can always use an exchange.0 -
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killer kish said:Gone are the good old days of being on course hunting around for the best price when it was proper bookmaking,that is the real disappointing aspect for me.
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Lincsaddick said:A House of Lords committee has recommended banning bookmakers from sponsoring Premier League clubs shirts ..https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53261364
Hopefully we will also see these con artists banned from advertising on TV.0 -
bobmunro said:Not sure if you've seen this article on Bill Benter @killer kish - right up your street I would wager!Horse racing is the toughest to price and get an edge - if you do then all power to your elbow.
That is a great article. I actually wrote my dissertation using econometric analysis to model football matches, back-tested for 5 years it was turning a modest profit each year. Used just about every variable you could think of, from how many shots on goal a team had had in the last 6 matches, to how far the away team had traveled to the match... Interestingly, the thought of using the bookies prices as a variable did not cross my mind, I just used them to decide on when bets should be placed. Think I'm going to dust it off and give it a go!
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Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1
£75 was all they offered him0 -
CAFCsayer said:bobmunro said:Not sure if you've seen this article on Bill Benter @killer kish - right up your street I would wager!Horse racing is the toughest to price and get an edge - if you do then all power to your elbow.
That is a great article. I actually wrote my dissertation using econometric analysis to model football matches, back-tested for 5 years it was turning a modest profit each year. Used just about every variable you could think of, from how many shots on goal a team had had in the last 6 matches, to how far the away team had traveled to the match... Interestingly, the thought of using the bookies prices as a variable did not cross my mind, I just used them to decide on when bets should be placed. Think I'm going to dust it off and give it a go!These are defined as realistic chances (as opposed to a shot from Simon Church ha ha).They then adjust the score/shots stats based on this Independent assessment and reformulate the price for the next game accordingly.Some I know (not me) have made a fortune up until C19 on the Vanarama N and S.0 -
oohaahmortimer said:Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1
£75 was all they offered himIs this friend of a friend a regular customer with bet365 who would usually bet those amounts and prices? If so, he would have been offered more - but in a relatively tin-pot market even then wouldn't likely be laid to lose £200k. I can't imagine any bookmaker would lay that bet. Exchange I hear you cry! Currently £27 available at 31/1Being laid to lose £3k is not unreasonable.3 -
bobmunro said:oohaahmortimer said:Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1
£75 was all they offered himIs this friend of a friend a regular customer with bet365 who would usually bet those amounts and prices? If so, he would have been offered more - but in a relatively tin-pot market even then wouldn't likely be laid to lose £200k. I can't imagine any bookmaker would lay that bet. Exchange I hear you cry! Currently £27 available at 31/1Being laid to lose £3k is not unreasonable.1 -
bobmunro said:oohaahmortimer said:Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1
£75 was all they offered himIs this friend of a friend a regular customer with bet365 who would usually bet those amounts and prices? If so, he would have been offered more - but in a relatively tin-pot market even then wouldn't likely be laid to lose £200k. I can't imagine any bookmaker would lay that bet. Exchange I hear you cry! Currently £27 available at 31/1Being laid to lose £3k is not unreasonable.
yes it’s a tin pot market but as I said before no one wants to take a bet .
id prolly go skint as a bookie cos if I put a price up I’d be there for some proper wedge and if I put best price up I’d expect action.
yep he said nowt in the exchange but if there was £5k at 41-1 I’m sure bet £3.65 would have obliged .
He asked another mate to put it on will hill at 33-1 and he said poke it cos if it came in it’d close his account .
i had the same problem myself years ago with victor chandler who used to send all the special treatment bollox invites here there and everywhere cos I was shit , then when I asked for a big sized bet they disappeared up their own arses. Same with spread bookies and all .
no one has a pair they just want house wife bets and a square book and not a position of note but I suppose that’s why they’re a successful business with their minimal risk approach .
still the scum goon is £5k better off today0 -
Just had an email from PP, to say the that my account been excluded, due to commitment to responsible gambling. Seeing as I've had about a dozen bets in the last year, mostly on Charlton winning, never more than a £5.0
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guinnessaddick said:Just had an email from PP, to say the that my account been excluded, due to commitment to responsible gambling. Seeing as I've had about a dozen bets in the last year, mostly on Charlton winning, never more than a £5.8
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LOL0