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Betting account restrictions

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  • Addick Addict
    Addick Addict Posts: 39,784
    edited July 2020
    PolzeathNick said:
    @bobmunro I'd argue with Betfair there is very much a right price these days, certainly over time anyway!

    Regarding the win/place bet scenario.  Look at something like the Eclipse antepost market.  I can't imagine I'd make it onto too many Bet365 Christmas card lists by availing myself of the 25/1 ew 1/5 first 3 Deirdre.  I can assure you I'm very much interested in the win part of the bet, indeed it is the balance between what you give up on the win part that offsets the value in the place part. 

    In the Eclipse, with a couple of NRs possible I can bet into a potential c.230% place market.  If 8 line up on the day the place market will still likely be overbroke. If the markets were actually split up, you could bet to the overround in each without having to worry about rats such as myself picking it off!  Just link your markets to Betfair markets and put your feet up!
    Skimming every other market from Betfair is pretty much all bookies do nowadays anyway. It is when they are out of line and the arbers come to town that they cry foul. Or when they offer a market that Betfair doesn't and someone knows more about that market than their so called "traders" do.
  • Gravesend_Addick
    Gravesend_Addick Posts: 7,299
    Really interesting debate this. I'm enjoying reading the various inputs from different perspectives. 

    Carry on chaps 
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,843
    edited July 2020
    Addick Addict said:
    PolzeathNick said:
    @bobmunro I'd argue with Betfair there is very much a right price these days, certainly over time anyway!

    Regarding the win/place bet scenario.  Look at something like the Eclipse antepost market.  I can't imagine I'd make it onto too many Bet365 Christmas card lists by availing myself of the 25/1 ew 1/5 first 3 Deirdre.  I can assure you I'm very much interested in the win part of the bet, indeed it is the balance between what you give up on the win part that offsets the value in the place part. 

    In the Eclipse, with a couple of NRs possible I can bet into a potential c.230% place market.  If 8 line up on the day the place market will still likely be overbroke. If the markets were actually split up, you could bet to the overround in each without having to worry about rats such as myself picking it off!  Just link your markets to Betfair markets and put your feet up!
    Skimming every other market from Betfair is pretty much all bookies do nowadays anyway. It is when they are out of line and the arbers come to town that they cry foul. Or when they offer a market that Betfair doesn't and someone knows more about that market than their so called "traders" do.
    That is certainly the case for horse racing - Betfair are the market makers and as Nick says they approach the right price, not from a probability perspective as there are no absolute probabilities, but more market dynamics. For football, the Asian market leads the way. 

    There is no point in a traditional fixed odds bookmaker sticking their neck out, thereby creating arbs, as that would be ‘opinion based odds’ rather than market driven - too much opinion is dangerous as the bookmaker then in reality becomes a punter.

    Opinion based trading went out years ago - the internet changed everything.

    You are right though, AA, pricing events that do not have strong exchange presence is much trickier - especially if you are first up!
  • killer kish
    killer kish Posts: 2,019
    Gone are the good old days of being on course hunting around for the best price when it was proper bookmaking,that is the real disappointing aspect for me.
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,843
    killer kish said:
    Gone are the good old days of being on course hunting around for the best price when it was proper bookmaking,that is the real disappointing aspect for me.
    Agreed - all on course bookmakers are just Betfair arbers now. A lot of the ‘game’ has been sanitised.
  • Lincsaddick
    Lincsaddick Posts: 32,348
    edited July 2020
    A House of Lords committee has recommended banning bookmakers from sponsoring Premier League clubs shirts ..https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53261364 
  • johnnybev1987
    johnnybev1987 Posts: 11,411
    Lincsaddick said:
    A House of Lords committee has recommended banning bookmakers from sponsoring Premier League clubs shirts ..https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53261364 
    They should, also TV commercials. It wont happen really as it takes alot of money away from football. 
  • SheedyCAFC
    SheedyCAFC Posts: 1,244
    I had about 10 accounts with various bookies and only 1 remaining completely unrestricted, been betting the last 3-4 years and I’m up slightly overall.

    Bookies only let you keep your accounts if you take the worst price and lose more than you win. It’s frustrating and highly immoral from them really, but at least you can always use an exchange.
  • ROTW
    ROTW Posts: 642
    edited July 2020
    .
  • 2121
    2121 Posts: 1,186
    killer kish said:
    Gone are the good old days of being on course hunting around for the best price when it was proper bookmaking,that is the real disappointing aspect for me.
    Feel like when im on course i am never getting a good price. Always better on the apps i feel. Then again im half cut when on course 
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  • mid_life_crisis
    mid_life_crisis Posts: 3,263
    Lincsaddick said:
    A House of Lords committee has recommended banning bookmakers from sponsoring Premier League clubs shirts ..https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53261364 
    There are many ways football needs to clean up its act, but this is a good place to start.
    Hopefully we will also see these con artists banned from advertising on TV.
  • CAFCsayer
    CAFCsayer Posts: 10,223
    bobmunro said:
    Not sure if you've seen this article on Bill Benter @killer kish - right up your street I would wager!


    Horse racing is the toughest to price and get an edge - if you do then all power to your elbow.

    That is a great article. I actually wrote my dissertation using econometric analysis to model football matches, back-tested for 5 years it was turning a modest profit each year. Used just about every variable you could think of, from how many shots on goal a team had had in the last 6 matches, to how far the away team had traveled to the match... Interestingly, the thought of using the bookies prices as a variable did not cross my mind, I just used them to decide on when bets should be placed. Think I'm going to dust it off and give it a go!
  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,145
    Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1


    £75 was all they offered him 
  • Valiantphil
    Valiantphil Posts: 6,410
    CAFCsayer said:
    bobmunro said:
    Not sure if you've seen this article on Bill Benter @killer kish - right up your street I would wager!


    Horse racing is the toughest to price and get an edge - if you do then all power to your elbow.

    That is a great article. I actually wrote my dissertation using econometric analysis to model football matches, back-tested for 5 years it was turning a modest profit each year. Used just about every variable you could think of, from how many shots on goal a team had had in the last 6 matches, to how far the away team had traveled to the match... Interestingly, the thought of using the bookies prices as a variable did not cross my mind, I just used them to decide on when bets should be placed. Think I'm going to dust it off and give it a go!
    Pro footy punters now use an “ooh / aargh” counter in the crowd for lower league matches. 
    These are defined as realistic chances (as opposed to a shot from Simon Church ha ha). 

    They then adjust the score/shots stats based on this Independent assessment and reformulate the price for the next game accordingly. 
    Some I know (not me) have made a fortune up until C19 on the Vanarama N and S. 
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,843
    oohaahmortimer said:
    Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1


    £75 was all they offered him 

    Is this friend of a friend a regular customer with bet365 who would usually bet those amounts and prices? If so, he would have been offered more - but in a relatively tin-pot market even then wouldn't likely be laid to lose £200k. I can't imagine any bookmaker would lay that bet. Exchange I hear you cry! Currently £27 available at 31/1
    Being laid to lose £3k is not unreasonable.
     
  • kinveachyaddick
    kinveachyaddick Posts: 3,875
    bobmunro said:
    oohaahmortimer said:
    Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1


    £75 was all they offered him 

    Is this friend of a friend a regular customer with bet365 who would usually bet those amounts and prices? If so, he would have been offered more - but in a relatively tin-pot market even then wouldn't likely be laid to lose £200k. I can't imagine any bookmaker would lay that bet. Exchange I hear you cry! Currently £27 available at 31/1
    Being laid to lose £3k is not unreasonable.
     
    Said friend of a friend should be sending B365 a big thank you note for not taking anymore of his money!
  • oohaahmortimer
    oohaahmortimer Posts: 34,145
    edited July 2020
    bobmunro said:
    oohaahmortimer said:
    Friend of a friend tried to have £5k on scum getting promoted with bet £3.65 they are showing best price 40-1


    £75 was all they offered him 

    Is this friend of a friend a regular customer with bet365 who would usually bet those amounts and prices? If so, he would have been offered more - but in a relatively tin-pot market even then wouldn't likely be laid to lose £200k. I can't imagine any bookmaker would lay that bet. Exchange I hear you cry! Currently £27 available at 31/1
    Being laid to lose £3k is not unreasonable.
     
    No he wouldn’t have been betting that amount usually(not that they’d ever lay that amount or price unless it suited their book) but as I said before I had 5 bets of around £1k before the 5th one won and I was restricted a few years back .
    yes it’s a tin pot market but as I said before no one wants to take a bet .
    id prolly go skint as a bookie cos if I put a price up I’d be there for some proper wedge and if I put best price up I’d expect action.
    yep he said nowt in the exchange but if there was £5k at 41-1 I’m sure bet £3.65 would have obliged .
    He asked another mate to put it on will hill at 33-1 and he said poke it cos if it came in it’d close his account .
    i had the same problem myself years ago with victor chandler who used to send all the special treatment bollox invites here there and everywhere cos I was shit , then when I asked for a big sized bet they disappeared up their own arses.  Same with spread bookies and all .
    no one has a pair they just want house wife bets and a square book and not a position of note but I suppose that’s why they’re a successful business with their minimal risk approach .

    still the scum goon is £5k better off today 
  • guinnessaddick
    guinnessaddick Posts: 28,624
    Just had an email from PP, to say the that my account been excluded, due to commitment to responsible gambling. Seeing as I've had about a dozen bets in the last year, mostly on Charlton winning, never more than a £5. 
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    guinnessaddick said:
    Just had an email from PP, to say the that my account been excluded, due to commitment to responsible gambling. Seeing as I've had about a dozen bets in the last year, mostly on Charlton winning, never more than a £5. 
    Well that's why it's been closed for responsible gambling then. You're betting on Charlton winning, they realise that's completely irresponsible. Fair play to them. 
  • 2121
    2121 Posts: 1,186
    LOL

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