With four games to go, and whilst nothing can ever be 100% certain in football it is starting to look as if a points total of 53 would guarantee survival in the Championship this season although in reality a lower total may suffice).
(I am discounting Wigan - already on 53 points but subject if appeal fails to an EFL 12 point deduction - a crime against football in my opinion but that's another story).
Currently both Luton and Barnsley would need to remain unbeaten for the remaining four games to reach that 53 point total - in fact - Luton would need to win all five and Barnsley win four and draw one - and just take a look at Barnsley's opponents which include Leeds, Forest and Brentford.
53 points now remains a tall order for Charlton as well and we should really discount the final game away at Leeds - we hardly want to be going there needing 3 points to survive.
In fact, all of the current bottom six are away on the last day of the season apart from Luton so the next 3 games for the bottom clubs are obviously crucial and as well as 'doing it for ourselves' versus Reading,Birmingham and Wigan (where two wins and a draw would give us the magical 53) we could look to Luton to do us a favour
I would argue, given that Luton can reach 53 points only by winning every game, that their two away fixtures at Huddersfield and Hull bear close examination particularly that at Hull on the penultimate fixture.
If it does come down to trying to finish at least 4th from bottom (our current position) then Hull are currently the greatest threat in that scenario and a Luton win there would be a massive boost for us as long as we do pick up points from our next three games.
The worst-case survival scenario of relying on a Wigan points deduction is one which has been discussed on another thread. Personally, I'd rather it was football results which dictated matters and that would include a win over Wigan in our home game against them and a win for Luton at Hull.
Both fixtures are played on the same day -18th July- but ours kicks off at 12.30 so Hull will know how we got on before they play Luton at 3pm.
PS I'm still in semi-lockdown so it seemed like a good idea to start writing this several hours ago.
Thank you for reading this far if you have.
PPS For any out there who think the end of this season is nailbiting I would ask you to spare a thought for those of us who spent the evening of the 24th May 1963 (pre=mobile phones, pre-Charlton Life Match Thread, pre-social media, pre-internet, pre-radio-commentary in fact pre-just about everything, awaiting the result from Walsall where Charlton had to win to avoid relegation.
A 2-1 win came though on the tiny (and tinny) transistor radio at about 10.30 that night whilst I was pacing up and down in Penhill Park, Sidcup trying to find a spot where the Pylons didn't interfere with the signal ----ah yes.........those were the days!
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Comments
Will history repeat itself with goal difference this time?
Of course that Walsall match was a real shootout because they went down instead of us!
It transpired that we were playing against 10 men for most of the game after their keeper went off injured
(PRE-SUBS as well of course) so we should have dominated but after goals from Kenning and Peacock they pulled one back and needed only one more to stay up at our expense and potentially write a very different story of the 1960s for Charlton Athletic.
I haven't even looked at goal difference in comparison with Hull say but given that we have a huge number of defeats by only a single goal and our difference has only just crept into double figures I guess we are ok on that score unless we took a very heavy defeat in the remaining games.
Yes, I'd take staying up on goal difference if that's what it comes too
This was after we let Paddy Powell and Mike Flanagan go off to the US for the last few weeks of the season, an act of attempted self destruction which compares well with some of Rolys efforts.